Hasil untuk "Public finance"

Elvira Nica, Tomas Kliestik, Danuta Szpilko et al.

This study examines the effects of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, its squared and cubic terms (GDP² and GDP³), renewable energy, fossil fuels, nuclear energy, and research and development (R&D) on environmental sustainability in G20 countries from 1994 to 2023, with a specific focus on testing the N-shaped Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis. CS-ARDL serves as the baseline estimator, and robustness is checked using FMOLS and DOLS estimators and an alternative dependent variable, greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. The coefficients of GDP, GDP², and GDP³ follow the expected +, −, + pattern of a cubic specification, indicating nonlinear income–environment dynamics. However, the implied turning points are not observed within the sample range, suggesting that a full N-shaped EKC trajectory is not empirically supported for G20 countries. Renewable energy consumption and R&D investment have negative coefficients, suggesting they help reduce environmental degradation. Fossil fuel consumption significantly increases ecological pressure, whereas nuclear energy shows a positive but insignificant effect. The findings remain robust across alternative estimators and when GHG emissions are used. Overall, the findings indicate that economic growth alone cannot ensure environmental sustainability, underscoring the need for renewable energy expansion, technological innovation, and reduced reliance on fossil fuels.

ميرام الخولي

يهدف هذا البحث إلى بيان آليات تطبيق تقنية تعلم الآلة في التنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية بهدف دعم قرارات المستثمرين ، مع التطور السريع في تكنولوجيا المعلومات وظهور تقنيات الذكاء الاصطناعي، أصبح من الضروري استكشاف إمكانيات هذه التقنيات في تحسين دقة التنبؤات المالية، وخاصة في مجال التدفقات النقدية التي تعد من أهم المؤشرات المائية لاتخاذ القرارات الاستثمارية. حيث تتلخص أهداف البحث في تحديد مفهوم واهداف وتطبيقات تعلم الآلة وتحليل الأساليب التقليدية والحديثة للتنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية، وتحديد دور التنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية في ترشيد قرارات المستثمرين، بالإضافة إلى تحديد الآليات اللازمة لتطبيق تعلم الآلة في التنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية.توصلت الباحثة لعدة نتائج أهمها أن تطبيق تعلم الآلة يحسن بشكل كبير من دقة التنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية ، ويقلل المخاطر المالية ، ويعزز جودة القرارات الاستثمارية. كما أظهرت النتائج توجد فروق في اداء التنبؤ بالتدفقات النقدية التشغيلية بين نماذج تعلم الالة والنماذج التقليدية ، وايضاً توجد فروق ذات دلالة احصائية بين نتائج النماذج التقليدية ونماذج تعلم الالة في القدرة التنبؤية للتدفقات النقدية التشغيلية.وعلي ضوء هذه النتائج اوصت الباحثة على أهمية الاستثمار في تطوير تقنيات تعلم الآلة وإنشاء فرق عمل متخصصة في مجال التحليل المالي المتطور، فضلاً عن تعزيز البرامج التدريبية والتأهيلية في تكنولوجيا الخدمات المالية لإعداد كوادر من الخبراء المختصصين ، كما اوصت بوضع معايير واضحة لاستخدام تقنيات تعلم الآلة في النظام المالي لضمان التطبيق الآمن وحماية المستثمرين من المخاطر التقنية والتنظيمية.

Dilnoza Muslimova, Niels Rietveld

This perspective posits that gene-environment interplay (GxE) studies should be developed both theoretically and empirically to be of relevance to policy makers. On the theoretical front, this development is essential because the current literature lacks the integration of a clear framework capturing the various goals of public policies. Empirically, GxE models need to be further developed because the common way of modelling GxE effects fails to adequately capture the heterogeneous effects public policies may have along the distribution of genetic propensities (as captured by polygenic indices). We fill these gaps by proposing a policy classification for GxE research and by offering guidance on advancing the empirical modelling of policy-informative GxE interplay. While doing so, we provide a review of existing GxE studies on educational outcomes exploiting policy reforms or environments that could be targeted by public policy.

Yejia Liu, Zhifeng Wu, Pengfei Li et al.

The electric power sector is a leading source of air pollutant emissions, impacting the public health of nearly every community. Although regulatory measures have reduced air pollutants, fossil fuels remain a significant component of the energy supply, highlighting the need for more advanced demand-side approaches to reduce the public health impacts. To enable health-informed demand-side management, we introduce HealthPredictor, a domain-specific AI model that provides an end-to-end pipeline linking electricity use to public health outcomes. The model comprises three components: a fuel mix predictor that estimates the contribution of different generation sources, an air quality converter that models pollutant emissions and atmospheric dispersion, and a health impact assessor that translates resulting pollutant changes into monetized health damages. Across multiple regions in the United States, our health-driven optimization framework yields substantially lower prediction errors in terms of public health impacts than fuel mix-driven baselines. A case study on electric vehicle charging schedules illustrates the public health gains enabled by our method and the actionable guidance it can offer for health-informed energy management. Overall, this work shows how AI models can be explicitly designed to enable health-informed energy management for advancing public health and broader societal well-being. Our datasets and code are released at: https://github.com/Ren-Research/Health-Impact-Predictor.

Adnan, Mirna Indriani, Darwanis et al.

Type of the article: Research Article AbstractThis paper aims to examine the influence of fiscal decentralization, budget governance, and budget allocation on financial performance and their implications on public welfare in the local governments of Indonesian districts (regencies) and municipalities (cities). Panel data were collected from 514 district and municipal governments across 34 provinces. Purposive sampling resulted in 225 audited financial reports from 2018 to 2022. The data analysis employed descriptive statistics, correlation tests, and panel regression. Model selection was conducted using the Chow test, and all analyses were performed in EViews. The results showed that only three of the eight hypotheses were supported. Fiscal decentralization has a negative impact on both budget allocation and financial performance, with no significant effect on public welfare. Budget governance demonstrates a dual effect: it significantly reduces budget allocation but enhances both financial performance and public welfare. While budget allocation positively influences financial performance, this improvement paradoxically reduces public welfare. These findings suggest that fiscal autonomy alone is insufficient to improve welfare outcomes. Instead, effective budget governance and equitable allocation mechanisms are essential.

Yurii Torianyk

The purpose of the article is to substantiate the importance of assessing the sustainability of public finances in the long term, to consider tools and methods for assessing financial stability, in particular stress tests. Considering the importance of fiscal/budgetary space, the definition of ‘sustainability of public finances’ has been clarified: it is the ability of the public finance system to function in the long term, maintaining structural balance and ensuring the fulfilment of obligations and expenditures, and having sufficient fiscal space to manoeuvre in the face of changing economic conditions without the risk of falling into a debt spiral. The criteria for the sustainability of public finances are laid down in fiscal rules. Fiscal risks, as threats to the stability of public finances, should be included in the assessment methodologies. As the existing methodologies for assessing fiscal stability of the European Commission and the International Monetary Fund's fiscal risk assessment tools prove, the time horizon of the assessment should include the long-term period. Ukraine officially uses two methodologies for assessing the sustainability of public finances: in 2013, new Methodological Recommendations for Calculating the Level of Economic Security of Ukraine were approved, which contain a description of indicators of budgetary and debt security of Ukraine (the methodology allows assessing only the current state of public finances and is not predictive); in 2019, a methodology for assessing fiscal risks was approved: the methodology provides for the assessment of fiscal risks in the medium term; it indicates the possibility, but not the obligation, to apply the methodology. Further improvement of domestic methods for assessing the sustainability of public finances should be based on expanding the time horizon, fixing the mandatory use of the scenario approach and stress tests in assessing fiscal risks. In the light of Ukraine's European integration, it is necessary to take preparatory measures to ensure the comparability of domestic public finance statistics for the use of the European Commission's fiscal stability risk assessment system. Further research on this topic will be related to the assessment of the sustainability of public finances using the traditional fiscal reaction function and the Domer debt sustainability condition.

Kimmo Eriksson, Pontus Strimling, Irina Vartanova et al.

Abstract Every social situation that people encounter in their daily lives comes with a set of unwritten rules about what behavior is considered appropriate or inappropriate. These everyday norms can vary across societies: some societies may have more permissive norms in general or for certain behaviors, or for certain behaviors in specific situations. In a preregistered survey of 25,422 participants across 90 societies, we map societal differences in 150 everyday norms and show that they can be explained by how societies prioritize individualizing moral foundations such as care and liberty versus binding moral foundations such as purity. Specifically, societies with more individualistic morality tend to have more permissive norms in general (greater liberty) and especially for behaviors deemed vulgar (less purity), but they exhibit less permissive norms for behaviors perceived to have negative consequences in specific situations (greater care). By comparing our data with available data collected twenty years ago, we find a global pattern of change toward more permissive norms overall but less permissive norms for the most vulgar and inconsiderate behaviors. This study explains how social norms vary across behaviors, situations, societies, and time.

Diletta Abbonato

This paper establishes an empirical baseline of public sentiment toward Fourth Industrial Revolution (4IR) technologies across six European countries during the period 2006--2019, prior to the widespread adoption of generative AI systems. Employing transformer-based natural language processing models on a corpus of approximately 90,000 tweets and news articles, I document a European public sphere increasingly divided in its assessment of technological change: neutral sentiment declined markedly over the study period as citizens sorted into camps of enthusiasm and concern, a pattern that manifests distinctively across national contexts and technology domains. Approximately 6\% of users inhabit echo chambers characterized by sentiment-aligned networks, with privacy discourse exhibiting the highest susceptibility to such dynamics. These findings provide a methodologically rigorous reference point for evaluating how the introduction of ChatGPT and subsequent generative AI systems has transformed public discourse on automation, employment, and technological change. The results carry implications for policymakers seeking to align technological governance with societal values in an era of rapid AI advancement.

Jonathan C. Roberts

Data-art blends visualisation, data science, and artistic expression. It allows people to transform information and data into exciting and interesting visual narratives. Hosting a public data-art hands-on workshop enables participants to engage with data and learn fundamental visualisation techniques. However, being a public event, it presents a range of challenges. We outline our approach to organising and conducting a public workshop, that caters to a wide age range, from children to adults. We divide the tutorial into three sections, focusing on data, sketching skills and visualisation. We place emphasis on public engagement, and ensure that participants have fun while learning new skills.

Battulga Gankhuu

In this paper, we developed the Merton's structural model for public companies under an assumption that liabilities of the companies are observed. Using Campbell and Shiller's approximation method, we obtain formulas of risk-neutral equity and liability values and default probabilities for the public companies. Also, the paper provides ML estimators of suggested model's parameters.

Tinoapei Dhliwayo , Innocent Musonda , Trynos Gumbo et al.

The sustainability of small and medium-sized contractors (SMCs) is vital, considering the critical role they play in socio-economic development globally. SMCs in Namibia have been consistently grappling with high failure rates over the years, largely due to a dearth of robust policy frameworks to guide SMC development and sustainability in the country. This study investigates the critical success factors (CSFs) for SMCs’ sustainability in Namibia. Using a qualitative approach, data were collected from 60 purposively selected construction industry participants, comprising owner-managers of contracting firms, policymakers, and construction professional consultants. Interviews were conducted with the participants, using a semi-structured interview tool. Data were then analysed using reflexive thematic analysis. The findings revealed six CSFs, including public and private institutions’ collaborative support, skills training, an enabling construction business environment, access to adequate and affordable finance, consistent work opportunities, and firm owner’s entrepreneurial skills. The identified CSFs culminated in the development of a framework for guiding the development of SMCs in Namibia. By incorporating the six CSFs in the framework, SMCs could be effectively developed and sustained. The framework may assist policymakers in making fundamental policy reforms and developing appropriate and context-specific interventions to sustain SMCs in Namibia and similar contexts.

مصطفى سيد خلف الله عبدالمنعم, كوكب أحمد محمد رضوان

أستهدفت هذه الدراسة التعرف على التأثير غير المباشر لرأس المال الفكري - كمتغير وسيط تداخلي- في مسار التأثير المباشرة لنظم العمل عالية الأداء على الأداء التنظيمي للبنوك في مدينة أسيوط.وقد تًبنت الدراسة المنهج الوصفي التحليلي كمنهج للدراسة، وقد طُبقت على عينة بلغت (224) مفردة من العاملين في بنوك مدينة أسيوط، تم أختيارها من مجتمع بحث بلغ (701) مفردة، وتمت التحليلات الإحصائية بإستخدام برنامج الحزمة الإحصائية للعلوم الإجتماعية SPSS النسخة (25) ، وبرنامج AMOSالنسخة (22).وقد توصلت الدراسة إلى وجود تأثيرات غير مباشرة موجبة، ومعنوية لرأس المال الفكري - كمتغير وسيط تداخلي - في مسار التأثير المباشر لممارسات نظم العمل عالية الأداء على الأداء التنظيمي للبنوك في مدينة أسيوط، وكذلك توصلت إلى وجود تأثير مباشر موجب، ومعنوي لممارسات نظم العمل عالية الأداء المعززة للتمكين على الأداء التنظيمي، وكذلك وجود تأثير مباشر موجب، ومعنوي لممارسات نظم العمل عالية الأداء المعززة للدوافع، والمعززة للتمكين على الأداء التنظيمي، وكذلك توصلت الدراسة إلى وجود تأثير مباشر لرأس المال الفكري على الأداء التنظيمي للبنوك في مدينة أسيوط. وبناءً على هذه النتائج تم تقديم دلالات الدراسة، وتوصياتها، علاوة على إقتراح بعض الدراسات المستقبلية ذات الصلة بالموضوع. الكلمات الدالة: ممارسات نظم العمل عالية الأداء، ورأس المال الفكري، والأداء التنظيمي.

HAN Lu, TAO Dexin, SHI Luyan

[Objective] This study intends to comprehensively explore the land ecological security situation of the Shandong Peninsula and Jiziwan of the Yellow River, provide a realistic basis for realizing the ecological protection and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin and promoting the strategy of “jointly grasping the great protection and jointly promoting the great governance”. [Methods] The entropy method, kernel density estimation, Markov chain and obstacle factor model, and other methods were applied. [Results] (1) In terms of level change, the growth rate of land ecological security in the two regions was “inverted U” type. The level of land ecological security in Shandong Peninsula was obviously higher than that Jiziwan of the Yellow River, but the growth rate of Jiziwan of the Yellow River was faster. (2) In terms of time, the land ecological security of the two regions had the characteristics of “single core” evolution. The regional differences in Shandong Peninsula were expanding, while the regional differences in Jiziwan were narrowing. In space, the two regions showed a spatial distribution trend of “high in the middle east and low in the west”. (3) On the evolution characteristics, the evolution of land ecological security level in the two regions had the effects of “path dependence” and “self-locking”. (4) The ecological security of land in Shandong Peninsula was affected by the per capita cultivated land area and the average application amount of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. The ecological security of land in Jiziwan of the Yellow River was affected by landscape fragmentation and forest coverage. [Conclusion] In the future, Shandong Peninsula and Jiziwan of the Yellow River should not only classify and implement policies according to regional advantages, but also proceed from the overall situation of the basin to jointly improve the land ecological security level of the Yellow River Basin.

Mihaela Curmei, Walid Krichene, Li Zhang et al.

We consider the problem of training private recommendation models with access to public item features. Training with Differential Privacy (DP) offers strong privacy guarantees, at the expense of loss in recommendation quality. We show that incorporating public item features during training can help mitigate this loss in quality. We propose a general approach based on collective matrix factorization (CMF), that works by simultaneously factorizing two matrices: the user feedback matrix (representing sensitive data) and an item feature matrix that encodes publicly available (non-sensitive) item information. The method is conceptually simple, easy to tune, and highly scalable. It can be applied to different types of public item data, including: (1) categorical item features; (2) item-item similarities learned from public sources; and (3) publicly available user feedback. Furthermore, these data modalities can be collectively utilized to fully leverage public data. Evaluating our method on a standard DP recommendation benchmark, we find that using public item features significantly narrows the quality gap between private models and their non-private counterparts. As privacy constraints become more stringent, models rely more heavily on public side features for recommendation. This results in a smooth transition from collaborative filtering to item-based contextual recommendations.

RAN Lingqin, PENG Changgen, XU Dequan, WU Ningbo

The widespread application of blockchain technology has led to the increasingly serious problem of privacy disclosure.To effectively assess this risk from the perspective of blockchain technology architecture, this study proposed a method for quantifying attacks using game based methods.In considering the different sensitivity of users to attacks in the blockchain technology architecture layer, a user sensitivity matrix is constructed to calculate subjective and objective sensitivity.The policy interaction process between honest users and malicious attackers on the blockchain is used to build a static Bayesian game model with incomplete information, and the risk impact and possibility are defined by the expected benefits of both parties, thereby obtaining the risk assessment score based on the blockchain technology architecture layer and privacy disclosure risk assessment score of the entire blockchain.Based on this, a Sigmoid function is used to regularize the risk assessment scores and determine the risk level of privacy leakage according to the risk index.Privacy leakage is divided into three risk states:negligible, moderate, and abnormal.The experimental results show that this method can effectively assess the risk of blockchain privacy disclosure and ensure multi-level and targeted privacy protection to users.

Pham Xuan Hoa, Vu Ngoc Xuan, Nguyen Thi Phuong Thu

Governments around the world have enacted many policies to reduce environmental pollution and carbon dioxide (CO2) emission. This study aimed to determine and understand the relationship between innovation, renewable energy consumption, foreign direct investment inflows, economic growth and CO2 emission in Vietnam. Information was collected annually based on the annual data of the General Statistics Office of Vietnam and World Bank from 2000 to 2022. The authors use the unrestricted fixed effects to resolve the study problems and using panel data method. The results indicate that innovation positively affects environmental pollution in Vietnam. However, renewable energy consumption has a negative effect on environmental pollution in Vietnam. In addition, FDI inflows and economic growth have strongly positive effects on environmental pollution. This paper also provides some recommendations that can assist Vietnam in developing a green and sustainable economy in the technology revolution 5.0 to achieve the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) over a long-term period.

Sulistiowati, Heny Kuswanti Suwarsinah, Megawati Simajuntak

During the increasingly fierce competition in the Islamic finance industry, strategic steps are needed to increase public intention to save. This study aims to analyze the influence of shariah financial literacy, religiosity, attitudes, subjective norms, and behavior control on the intention to save at Indonesian Islamic Banks with the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) approach and formulate managerial implications for Indonesian Islamic Banks. This research was conducted on 200 respondents selected by voluntary sampling with Muslim criteria who had never had savings at Bank Syariah Indonesia and lived in the Greater Jakarta area. Data were collected online using a questionnaire and Structural Equation Modelling. The results showed that financial literacy has no significant effect on attitudes and behavior control; on the contrary, religiosity has a significant positive effect on attitudes and behavior control. Furthermore, subjective norms positively affect the intention to save but do not affect attitudes. On the other hand, attitude and behavior control significantly positively affect the intention to save. Based on the research results, Indonesian Islamic Banks can develop business by emphasizing the religiosity side to inspire people to prefer Islamic banks over conventional banks. Furthermore, Bank Syariah Indonesia should use social-environmental reference factors like friends and family. Keywords: Indonesian Islamic banks, intention to save, financial literacy, religiosity, theory of planned behavior

Sunil Mahadik, Vinay Topkar

The paper aims to determine the criteria and sub-criteria for evaluating the contractor’s performance and finalize a master list of the criteria and sub-criteria to be used for evaluating contractor’s performance with their respective weights. The method is incorporated in the framework proposed for the evaluation of the contractor’s performance during the execution phase. An exploratory study has been opted, using a structured, close-ended multiple-choice questionnaire survey approach. The questionnaire survey was conducted in two phases, i.e. validation survey, and reliability survey. Fifteen experts responded to the validation survey, and thirty experts to the reliability survey. The experts were from Government and public sectors in India, working at various senior levels. The weights of criteria and sub-criteria were calculated from data collected in the survey, relative importance was calculated through the relative importance index and criteria were ranked. The paper provides criteria and subcriteria which were finalized through a questionnaire survey by classification of criteria identified in literature and tender review. The respective weights were finalized, which can be measured while evaluating contractors’ performance. The weights assigned to criteria through the survey are; health and safety is 13.19%, followed by finance 11.93%, time 11.93%, quality 13.38%, client satisfaction 12.42%, environmental safety 12.32%, productivity 12.51% and regulation 12.32%. The paper provides the criteria and sub-criteria with their weights needed for evaluating the performance of contractors during the project execution phase. This research can lead to a culture of continuous measurement of performance for the satisfactory completion of projects.

محمد ابوخشبة, محمد محمود محمد محمود ابوخشبة

تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى التعرف على دور ممارسات إدارة الموارد البشرية الخضراء وممارسات إدارة سلسلة التوريد الخضراء في تحسين أداء المنظمة بالتطبيق على عدد من الشركات الصناعية فى مصر، حيث تم تطبيق الدراسة على عينة من الشركات الصناعية يبلغ عددها 68 فى نطاق محافظتى الاسكندرية والبحيرة والحاصلة على شهادة الايزو 14000في عدة صناعات هى :صناعات الكيماويات و البتروكيماوبات و الصناعات النسيجية و الصناعات الغذائية. وفي سبيل الوصول لهذا الهدف تم الاعتماد على قائمة استقصاء معدة خصيصا لجمع البيانات الأولية للدراسة، ومن خلال مقياس كرونباخ ألفا تم التأكد من ثبات مقاييس متغيرات الدراسة، وتم استخدام تحليلPartial Least Square (PLS) لتحليل العلاقات داخل النموذج واختبار نموذج وفروض الدراسة البالغ عددها 13 فرض ، وتوصلت الدراسة إلي وجود تأثير إيجابي لممارسات ادارة الموارد البشرية الخضراء و ممارسات ادارة سلسلة التوريد الخضراء على تحسين اداء المنظمات وبناء على ذلك تم قبول فروض الدراسة جميعا ماعدا الفرض الرابع نظرا لعدم وجود تاثير لممارسات ادارة الموارد البشرية الخضراء على الاداء الاجتماعى .الكلمات المفتاحية: ممارسات إدارة الموارد البشرية الخضراء ،ممارسات إدارة سلسلة التوريد الخضراء،اداء المنظمة

Zaher F. Nsouli

Having access to essential infrastructure services is pivotal in creating economic opportunities and bringing social services to the poor. Their deficiency leads to a number of negative consequences and lost opportunities (the World Bank indicates that currently 1 billion people live without electricity, 663 million people lack access to safe drinking water, 840 million people are located more than 2 kilometers from all-weather roads, and 4 billion people cannot access the Internet). The systematization of the results of World Bank research proved that lower-and middle-income countries need to spend on average 4.5 percent of GDP to deliver infrastructure services and achieve the infrastructure-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The urgency of solving this problem lies in the fact that in many countries, the high levels of investment required for infrastructure cannot be financed by the public purse alone. Therefore, the governments of these countries should pay attention to private investments as a tool for additional fundraising. The article presents the results of the analysis, which proved that the Private-Public Partnership has increasingly become a common structure for the delivery of public infrastructure. It offers the opportunity for governments and nongovernmental bodies to achieve more efficient projects by sharing risks and giving the private sector a chance to bring innovation to the design, construction, operation, and maintenance of public infrastructure. The study theoretically proves that public-private partnership offers monetary and non-monetary advantages for the public sector, in particular: allowing the allocation of public funds for other local priorities, distributing project risks to both public and private sectors, improved efficiency and project implementation processes in delivering services to the public, emphasizes Value for Money (VfM) – focusing on reduced costs, better risk allocation, faster implementation, improved services and possible generation of additional revenue. In the paper, based on a comparative analysis of conventional bonds and Sukuk (Islamic bonds), it was concluded that conventional bonds represent the issuer’s pure debt, while the latter offers multiple benefits: lower costs of funds due to higher rating via credit enhancement, access to the capital markets, diversification of funding sources, off-balance sheet financing (via securitization), improvement of financial ratios, and potential risk reduction.