COVID-19 Pandemic Prediction for Hungary; a Hybrid Machine Learning Approach
G. Pintér, I. Felde, A. Mosavi
et al.
Several epidemiological models are being used around the world to project the number of infected individuals and the mortality rates of the COVID-19 outbreak. Advancing accurate prediction models is of utmost importance to take proper actions. Due to a high level of uncertainty or even lack of essential data, the standard epidemiological models have been challenged regarding the delivery of higher accuracy for long-term prediction. As an alternative to the susceptible-infected-resistant (SIR)-based models, this study proposes a hybrid machine learning approach to predict the COVID-19 and we exemplify its potential using data from Hungary. The hybrid machine learning methods of adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) and multi-layered perceptron-imperialist competitive algorithm (MLP-ICA) are used to predict time series of infected individuals and mortality rate. The models predict that by late May, the outbreak and the total morality will drop substantially. The validation is performed for nine days with promising results, which confirms the model accuracy. It is expected that the model maintains its accuracy as long as no significant interruption occurs. Based on the results reported here, and due to the complex nature of the COVID-19 outbreak and variation in its behavior from nation-to-nation, this study suggests machine learning as an effective tool to model the outbreak. This paper provides an initial benchmarking to demonstrate the potential of machine learning for future research.
284 sitasi
en
Computer Science, Medicine
Hungary rewards highly cited scientists with bonus grants
A. Abbott
317 sitasi
en
Political Science, Medicine
FinTech payments in the era of COVID-19: Factors influencing behavioral intentions of “Generation X” in Hungary to use mobile payment
Ahmad Daragmeh, C. Lentner, J. Sági
Organizations, such as the World Health Organization, encouraged consumers to use contactless payment methods instead of payment methods such as cash, which can be carriers of the SARS-2 virus. This study aims to evaluate factors that influence Hungarian Generation X’s behavioral intentions to use mobile payment services during the pandemic. We conducted an electronic questionnaire-based survey among 1120 Generation X individuals. Using structural equation modeling to analyze the study’s conceptual model, our results confirm that perceived COVID-19 risk, perceived usefulness, and subjective norms significantly influence Hungarian Generation X’s behavioral intentions to use mobile payment services. Moreover, perceived usefulness mediates the relationship between perceived ease of use and behavioral intention to use mobile payment systems. Overall, our results show that the model of perceived COVID-19 risk, perceived usefulness, subjective norms, and perceived ease of use explains 62.9% of the variance in intention to use mobile payment systems. Our study contributes to the technology acceptance model and highlights its effectiveness in explaining the behavioral intention to adopt mobile payments during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Shear banding and flow instabilities in wormlike micelles: Modelling and mechanisms – A review
Sudheesh Parathakkatt, Vaisakh Kizhuveetil, Gokul G. K.
et al.
Worm-like micelles (WLMs) are dynamic, self-assembling supramolecular structures that exhibit complex viscoelastic behaviour due to their ability to undergo reversible scission, fusion, branching, and sequence rearrangement. This review provides a comprehensive analysis of recent theoretical advances in modelling WLM rheology, from classical reptation–scission theories to modern stochastic simulations and multi-scale population-balance frameworks. A central challenge addressed is the rheological indistinguishability of competing models under linear conditions, which renders inverse modelling ill-posed and necessitates the integration of experimental data, such as cryogenic transmission electron microscopy (cryo-TEM), small-angle neutron scattering (SANS), and flow birefringence, to constrain theoretical predictions. The article further explores the limitations of conventional models in capturing nonlinear responses, including shear banding and extensional strain hardening, and emphasizes the need for spatially resolved, structurally informed constitutive equations. Emerging tools, including neural networks and hybrid modular frameworks, are identified as promising solutions for bridging microscopic rearrangement dynamics with macroscopic flow behaviour. Ultimately, the development of predictive, physically grounded WLM models will be essential for advancing applications in formulation science, smart materials, and industrial processing.
Materials of engineering and construction. Mechanics of materials, Chemical technology
Anti-ceramide antibody and sphingosine-1-phosphate as potential biomarkers of unresectable non-small cell lung cancer
Lilla Bűdi, Dániel Hammer, Rita Varga
et al.
ObjectivesSpingosine-1-phosphate (S1P) and ceramides are bioactive sphingolipids that influence cancer cell fate. Anti-ceramide antibodies might inhibit the effects of ceramide. The aim of this study was to assess the potential role of circulating S1P and anti-ceramide antibody as biomarkers in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC).MethodsWe recruited 66 subjects (34 controls and 32 patients with NSCLC). Patient history and clinical variables were taken from all participants. Venous blood samples were collected to evaluate plasma biomarkers. If bronchoscopy was performed, bronchial washing fluid (BWF) was also analyzed. We measured the levels of S1P and anti-ceramide antibody with ELISA.ResultsS1P levels were significantly higher in the NSCLC group (3770.99 ± 762.29 ng/mL vs. 366.53 ± 249.38 ng/mL, patients with NSCLC vs. controls, respectively, p < 0.001). Anti-ceramide antibody levels were significantly elevated in the NSCLC group (278.70 ± 19.26 ng/mL vs. 178.60 ± 18 ng/mL, patients with NSCLC vs. controls, respectively, p = 0.007). Age or BMI had no significant effect on anti-ceramide antibody or S1P levels. BWF samples had higher levels of anti-ceramide antibody (155.29 ± 27.58 ng/mL vs. 105.87 ± 9.99 ng/mL, patients with NSCLC vs. controls, respectively, p < 0.001). Overall survival (OS) was 13.36 months. OS was not affected by anti-ceramide antibody or S1P levels.ConclusionHigher levels of S1P and anti-ceramide antibody were associated with active cancer. These results suggest that sphingolipid alterations might be important features of NSCLC.
Neoplasms. Tumors. Oncology. Including cancer and carcinogens, Pathology
Recenzió Hegedűs Roland „Tanulási zavarok és iskolai teljesítmény” című könyvéről
Katalin Mező
Recenzió Hegedűs Roland „Tanulási zavarok és iskolai teljesítmény” című könyvéről
Special aspects of education
An externally constrained hybrid regime: Hungary in the European Union
András Bozóki, Dániel Hegedűs
232 sitasi
en
Political Science
Assessing the impacts of agricultural drought (SPI/SPEI) on maize and wheat yields across Hungary
S. Mohammed, K. Alsafadi, G. Enaruvbe
et al.
This study examined the physical properties of agricultural drought (i.e., intensity, duration, and severity) in Hungary from 1961 to 2010 based on the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The study analyzed the interaction between drought and crop yield for maize and wheat using standardized yield residual series (SYRS), and the crop-drought resilient factor (CDRF). The results of both SPI and SPEI (-3, -6) showed that the western part of Hungary has significantly more prone to agricultural drought than the eastern part of the country. Drought frequency analysis reveals that the eastern, northern, and central parts of Hungary were the most affected regions. Drought analysis also showed that drought was particularly severe in Hungary during 1970–1973, 1990–1995, 2000–2003, and 2007. The yield of maize was more adversely affected than wheat especially in the western and southern regions of Hungary (1961–2010). In general, maize and wheat yields were severely non-resilient (CDRF < 0.8) in the central and western part of the country. The results suggest that drought events are a threat to the attainment of the second Sustainable Development Goals (SDG-2). Therefore, to ensure food security in Hungary and in other parts of the world, drought resistant crop varieties need to be developed to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production.
Nationwide effectiveness of five SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in Hungary—the HUN-VE study
Z. Vokó, Z. Kiss, G. Surján
et al.
Objectives The Hungarian vaccination campaign was conducted with five different vaccines during the third wave of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic in 2021. This observational study (HUN-VE: Hungarian Vaccine Effectiveness) estimated vaccine effectiveness against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infection and COVID-19-related mortality in 3.7 million vaccinated individuals. Methods Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related mortality were calculated using data from the National Public Health Centre surveillance database. Estimated vaccine effectiveness was calculated as 1 – incidence rate ratio ≥7 days after the second dose for each available vaccine versus an unvaccinated control group using mixed-effect negative binomial regression controlling for age, sex and calendar day. Results Between 22 January 2021 and 10 June 2021, 3 740 066 Hungarian individuals received two doses of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer-BioNTech), HB02 (Sinopharm), Gam-COVID-Vac (Sputnik-V), AZD1222 (AstraZeneca), or mRNA-1273 (Moderna) vaccines. Incidence rates of SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related death were 1.73–9.3/100 000 person-days and 0.04–0.65/100 000 person-days in the fully vaccinated population, respectively. Estimated adjusted effectiveness varied between 68.7% (95% CI 67.2%–70.1%) and 88.7% (95% CI 86.6%–90.4%) against SARS-CoV-2 infection, and between 87.8% (95% CI 86.1%–89.4%) and 97.5% (95% CI 95.6%–98.6%) against COVID-19-related death, with 100% effectiveness in individuals aged 16–44 years for all vaccines. Conclusions Our observational study demonstrated the high or very high effectiveness of five different vaccines in the prevention SARS-CoV-2 infection and COVID-19-related death.
The gendered modus operandi of the illiberal transformation in Hungary and Poland
Weronika Grzebalska, A. Pető
212 sitasi
en
Political Science
The Comparative Political Economy of Growth Models: Explaining the Continuity of FDI-Led Growth in Ireland and Hungary*
Dorothee Bohle, Aidan Regan
This article argues that the quiet politics of informal business-state interaction explains the political determinants of growth regimes. Building on the business power literature within the study of comparative capitalism, it shows that the noisy politics of elections often leads to changes of government but rarely to fundamental changes in the growth regime. Rather, growth models can be traced to the interactions and interests of dominant corporations within a country and its policymaking elites. The argument is developed through a comparative case study research design, using the case of foreign direct investment–led (FDI-led) growth in Ireland and Hungary. FDI-led growth regimes are a universe of cases that rely on state-led industrial and enterprise policies targeting the capital investment of foreign-owned multinational firms. Despite periods of noisy electoral politics challenging basic tenets of the FDI-led growth model in both Hungary and Ireland, the continuity of FDI-oriented growth is traced to the corporate politics of business-state elite deals.
Adaptation of the scale of effects of social media on eating behavior in Hungarian university students
Aylin Bayındır-Gümüş, Ebru Öztürk, Mihály Soós
Background. People live in a technological world, where social media is used very commonly. Social media has effects on eating behaviors, as in other aspects. For this reason, it is important to measure social media effect.
Objective. This study aimed to adapt the Scale of Effects of Social Media on Eating Behaviour (SESMEB) that examines the effect of social media on eating behavior in Hungarian university students.
Material and methods. The SESMEB was translated into the target language by taking various stages. The online questionnaire including general information, social media use, and the eighteen-item SESMEB was used to collect data. The scale was administered to the study group consisting of 213 Hungarian university students, and data from 203 of them were analyzed. Confirmatory factor analyses were performed to test construct validity, and the Cronbach alpha coefficient was calculated for the reliability of the scale in Hungarian.
Results. Total correlation value was higher than 0.50 for all items of the scale. The fit indices were at an acceptable level or had a perfect fit. The t-values were significant at the level of 0.1 and ranged between 2.927 and 5.706. The Spearman–Brown coefficient was calculated at 0.894. The reliability coefficient of the scale was calculated to be 0.866. SESMEB scores were different according to spending time daily, sharing content, and using filters or Photoshop on social media (p < 0.05).
Conclusions. Higher than 0.80 Cronbach’s alpha coefficient and other results show that Hungarian SESMEB is a valid and reliable tool. Therefore, Hungarian SESMEB will be useful for further studies to determine the impact of social media on eating behaviors.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Industrial medicine. Industrial hygiene
Effect of Solid/Liquid and Eutectic Front Velocities on Microstructure Evolution in Al-20%Cu Alloys
Alaaldeen Abdallah, András Roósz, Arnold Rónaföldi
et al.
During the solidification process, microstructures are affected by the experimental conditions, the thermophysical characteristics of the alloy, and the type of grain-refining particles. Unidirectional solidification experiments were performed in a vertical Bridgman-type furnace to investigate the effect of the solidification front velocity on the solidified microstructure of a non-refined and refined Al-20%Cu alloy. The samples were solidified by rapidly increasing the sample velocity (v) range from 0.02 mm/s to 0.2 mm/s while maintaining an almost constant temperature gradient (~5 K/mm). As a result, despite changes in the solid/liquid front velocity along the sample, the microstructure of the non-refined alloys remained columnar. In the refined alloy, the columnar structure changed into an equiaxed structure at two different front velocities.
New Developments in Pharmacological Treatment of Obesity and Type 2 Diabetes—Beyond and within GLP-1 Receptor Agonists
Ferenc Sztanek, László Imre Tóth, Attila Pető
et al.
Guidelines for the management of obesity and type 2 diabetes (T2DM) emphasize the importance of lifestyle changes, including a reduced-calorie diet and increased physical activity. However, for many people, these changes can be difficult to maintain over the long term. Medication options are already available to treat obesity, which can help reduce appetite and/or reduce caloric intake. Incretin-based peptides exert their effect through G-protein-coupled receptors, the receptors for glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP), and glucagon peptide hormones are important regulators of insulin secretion and energy metabolism. Understanding the role of intercellular signaling pathways and inflammatory processes is essential for the development of effective pharmacological agents in obesity. GLP-1 receptor agonists have been successfully used, but it is assumed that their effectiveness may be limited by desensitization and downregulation of the target receptor. A growing number of new agents acting on incretin hormones are becoming available for everyday clinical practice, including oral GLP-1 receptor agonists, the dual GLP-1/GIP receptor agonist tirzepatide, and other dual and triple GLP-1/GIP/glucagon receptor agonists, which may show further significant therapeutic potential. This narrative review summarizes the therapeutic effects of different incretin hormones and presents future prospects in the treatment of T2DM and obesity.
Beverage Consumption Patterns and Their Association with Metabolic Health in Adults from Families at High Risk for Type 2 Diabetes in Europe—The Feel4Diabetes Study
Paris Kantaras, Niki Mourouti, Theodora Mouratidou
et al.
In total, 3274 adults (65.2% females) from six European countries were included in this cross-sectional analysis using data from the baseline assessment of the Feel4Diabetes study. Anthropometric, sociodemographic, dietary and behavioral data were assessed, and the existence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) was recorded. Beverage consumption patterns (BCPs) were derived via principal component analysis. Three BCPs were derived explaining 39.5% of the total variation. BCP1 was labeled as “Alcoholic beverage pattern”, which loaded heavily on high consumption of beer/cider, wine and other spirits; BCP2 was labeled as “High in sugars beverage pattern” that was mainly characterized by high consumption of soft drinks with sugar, juice containing sugar and low consumption of water; and BCP3 was labeled as “Healthy beverage pattern” that was mainly characterized by high consumption of water, tea, fruit juice freshly squeezed or prepacked without sugar and low consumption of soft drinks without sugar. After adjusting for various confounders, BCP2 was positively associated with elevated triglycerides (<i>p</i> = 0.001), elevated blood pressure (<i>p</i> = 0.001) elevated fasting glucose (<i>p</i> = 0.008) and the existence of MetS (<i>p</i> = 0.006), while BCP1 was inversely associated with reduced HDL-C (<i>p</i> = 0.005) and BCP3 was inversely associated with elevated blood pressure (<i>p</i> = 0.047). The establishment of policy actions as well as public health nutritional education can contribute to the promotion of a healthy beverage consumption.
Diseases of the endocrine glands. Clinical endocrinology
Rethinking “democratic backsliding” in Central and Eastern Europe – looking beyond Hungary and Poland
L. Cianetti, James Dawson, S. Hanley
ABSTRACT This essay introduces contributions to a special issue of East European Politics on “Rethinking democratic backsliding in Central and Eastern Europe”, which seeks to expand the study of democratic regression in CEE beyond the paradigmatic cases of Hungary and Poland. Reviewing these contributions, we identify several directions for research: 1) the need to critique “democratic backsliding”, not simply as a label, but also as an assumed regional trend; 2) a need to better integrate the role of illiberal socio-economic structures such as oligarchical structures or corrupt networks; and 3) a need to (re-)examine the trade-offs between democratic stability and democratic quality. We also note how insights developed researching post-communist regions such as Western Balkans or the post-Soviet space could usefully inform work on CEE backsliding. We conclude by calling for the study of CEE democracy to become more genuinely interdisciplinary, moving beyond some narrowly institutionalist comparative political science assumptions.
199 sitasi
en
Political Science
‘We won’t let Brussels dictate us’: Eurosceptic populism in Hungary and Poland
Robert Csehi, Edit Zgut
ABSTRACT As a result of various crises, the European Union (EU) witnessed the rise of Eurosceptic and/or populist parties in its member states. However, the link between Euroscepticism and populism remains under-theorized, and the East-Central European (ECE) region is still surprisingly under-studied. This paper aims to fill these gaps by studying the development of Eurosceptic populist narratives in Hungary and Poland. Connecting the literature on Euroscepticism and the ideational approach to populism, it is shown through Orbán’s and Kaczyński’s discourses how (1) the EU is equated with ‘the corrupt elite’ that stands in conflict with ‘the pure people’, the Hungarians and Poles, and (2) how the EU is claimed to act against the notion of popular sovereignty. While the article highlights differences between the Eurosceptic populist narratives of the two party leaders, a politically driven ‘anti-imperialist’ theme prevails in both cases, which differentiates them from their Western-European counterparts as well.
124 sitasi
en
Political Science
Isolation of infectious Lloviu virus from Schreiber’s bats in Hungary
G. Kemenesi, G. Tóth, M. Mayora-Neto
et al.
Some filoviruses can be transmitted to humans by zoonotic spillover events from their natural host and filovirus outbreaks have occured with increasing frequency in the last years. The filovirus Lloviu virus (LLOV), was identified in 2002 in Schreiber’s bats (Miniopterus schreibersii) in Spain and was subsequently detected in bats in Hungary. Here we isolate infectious LLOV from the blood of a live sampled Schreiber’s bat in Hungary. The isolate is subsequently sequenced and cultured in the Miniopterus sp. kidney cell line SuBK12-08. It is furthermore able to infect monkey and human cells, suggesting that LLOV might have spillover potential. A multi-year surveillance of LLOV in bats in Hungary detects LLOV RNA in both deceased and live animals as well as in coupled ectoparasites from the families Nycteribiidae and Ixodidae. This correlates with LLOV seropositivity in sampled Schreiber’s bats. Our data support the role of bats, specifically Miniopterus schreibersii as hosts for LLOV in Europe. We suggest that bat-associated parasites might play a role in the natural ecology of filoviruses in temperate climate regions compared to filoviruses in the tropics. Lloviu virus (LLOV) is a filovirus that was first identified in 2002 in Schreiber’s bats in Europe. Here, the authors isolate infectious LLOV from Schreiber’s bats in Hungary and show that it can infect human cells in vitro, suggesting potential for zoonotic events. They furthermore detect LLOV RNA in ectoparasites of sampled bats.
De-democratization in Hungary: diffusely defective democracy
Matthijs Bogaards
ABSTRACT Scholarly attention has started to shift from democratization and democratic consolidation to trends of democratic deconsolidation, backsliding, regression, and erosion. This article examines Hungary as a deviant and exemplary case for understanding de-democratization. The starting point is the literature on defective democracy, which provides a unified framework of analysis for the causes and the outcomes of democratization. However, as the case of Hungary shows, de-democratization is not simply the mirror of democratization. In Hungary, both the outcome and the process of de-democratization defy expectations. The democratic defects do not conform to any of the standard types, instead resembling a “diffusely defective democracy”. Moreover, existing explanations fail to account for their emergence. The case of Hungary indicates that our knowledge of democratization may be a poor guide to understanding de-democratization.
180 sitasi
en
Political Science
The impact of COVID-19 on the gender division of childcare work in Hungary
É. Fodor, A. Gregor, J. Koltai
et al.
ABSTRACT As most other EU countries, Hungary implemented severe lockdown measures during the pandemic, including the closure of the schools and childcare facilities. This meant that for several months a vastly increased volume of childcare had to be supplied by individual households without much institutional help. In the end of May 2020, we conducted a representative survey in Hungary to find out how the pandemic affected the gendered division of these childcare duties. We found that on average, in relative terms, men have increased their contributions at roughly the same rate (by 35 percent) as women. But given that women had been doing a lot more childcare work before the pandemic, in absolute terms, women's contributions grew significantly more than men's and the gap between men and women has increased in absolute work hour terms. This was particularly so among a specific group of women: middle class, highly educated city-dwellers. Our data suggest that in Hungary the pandemic increased gender inequality the most among the highest educated.
109 sitasi
en
Political Science