Hasil untuk "Demography. Population. Vital events"

Richard Cincotta

This study adheres to a logistic regression modeling protocol originally developed for long-range intelligence analyses and employs data from UN demographic estimates (the 2024 revision) to generate a set of statistical functions that suggest a moderately strong relationship between increasing median age and the probability of a persistently positive international net migration rate (NMR). According to this relationship, the post-Cold War probability (data from 1990 to 2015) of experiencing a persistently positive net migration rate (defined as a +NMR, directly followed by five consecutive years of +NMRs) rose from less than 0.12 at a population median age of 15 years, to a probability greater than 0.55 at 36 years, and then to more than 0.77 at 45 years. The author hypothesizes a speculative set of predictions aimed at providing long-term tests for this model. These predictions assume that, by a median age of 36.0 years, at least one country in the hypothesized cluster of countries will have shifted to experiencing a series of +NMRs. If, as this model predicts, the age-structurally associated transition to sustained +NMRs transpires by 2055, there could be a substantially larger pool of migrant net-receiving states in parts of Asia, Latin America, and North Africa than the UN’s future scenarios currently project.

Jeffrey Giansiracusa, Kevin Kuehn, Stefano Mereta et al.

This document is a slightly expanded version of a series of talks given by J. Giansiracusa at the workshop `Geometry over semirings' at Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona in July 2025. In the first lecture we introduce tropical polynomials, ideals, congruences, and how the connection with tropical geometry is made via congruences of bend relations. Tropical geometry and matroid theory are telling us that we should focus attention on a narrow slice of the world of tropical algebra, and this leads to the theory of tropical ideals (as developed by Maclagan and Rincón) and an abundance of interesting open questions. In the second lecture we examine the relationship between Berkovich analytification and tropicalization from the perspective of bend relations, giving a refinement of Payne's influential limit theorem. In the third lecture we set aside geometry and focus on tropicalization via bend relations as a construction in commutative and non-commutative algebra. Constructions such as symmetric algebras, exterior algebras, matrix algebras, and Clifford algebras can be tropicalized. In the case of exterior algebras, the resulting tropical notion beautifully completes the picture of the Plücker embedding and gives a new perspective on the tropical Plücker relations. For matrix algebras and Clifford algebras, Morita theory becomes an interesting topic.

Pablo Gluzmann, Leopoldo Tornarolli, Cecilia Velázquez

Resumen Uno de cada cinco jóvenes en América Latina ni estudia ni trabaja (nini), con una tasa en mujeres que casi duplica la de los hombres. Asimismo, uno de cada cuatro jóvenes clasificado como nini pertenece a la población económicamente activa por estar buscando trabajo. El objetivo de este artículo es analizar el papel del ciclo económico en la proporción de jóvenes nini en la región, mediante estimaciones de modelos econométricos con efectos fijos, usando datos de encuestas armonizadas para catorce países en el período 2005-2024. Los resultados indican que la proporción de nini sigue un patrón contracíclico, un aumento de 10 % del componente cíclico del producto se asocia con una disminución cercana a tres puntos porcentuales en el porcentaje de jóvenes nini. Además, se identifica un núcleo duro de jóvenes nini que enfrenta mayores barreras para acceder o permanecer en el sistema educativo o en el mercado laboral, incluso en contextos de crecimiento económico.

Akshay Priyadarshi, Eamonn Kerins

The Nancy Grace Roman Space Telescope (Roman) will unveil for the first time the full architecture of planetary systems across Galactic distances through the discovery of up to 200,000 cool and hot exoplanets using microlensing and transit detection methods. Roman's huge exoplanet haul, and Galactic reach, will require new methods to leverage the full exoplanet demographic content of the combined microlensing and transit samples, given the different sensitivity bias of the techniques to planet and host properties and Galactic location. We present a framework for technique-agnostic exoplanet demography (TAED) that can allow large, multi-technique exoplanet samples to be combined for demographic studies. Our TAED forward modelling and retrieval framework uses parameterised model exoplanet demographic distributions to embed planetary systems within a stellar population synthesis model of the Galaxy, enabling internally consistent forecasts to be made for all detection methods that are based on spatio-kinematic system properties. In this paper, as a first test of the TAED framework, we apply it to simulated transit datasets based on the Kepler Data Release 25 to assess parameter recovery accuracy and method scalability for a single large homogeneous dataset. We find that optimisation using differential evolution provides a computationally scalable framework that gives a good balance between computational efficiency and accuracy of parameter recovery.

Jakub Dobosz, Maximilian Engelhardt, Diego Dupleich et al.

Wireless techniques for monitoring human vital signs, such as heart and breathing rates, offer a promising solution in the context of joint communication and sensing (JCAS) with applications in medicine, sports, safety, security, and even the military. This paper reports experimental results obtained at the Fraunhofer Institute for Integrated Circuits in Ilmenau, demonstrating the effectiveness of an indoor orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) JCAS system for detecting human heart and breathing rates. The system operated in a bistatic configuration at an FR2 frequency of 26.5 GHz with a variable bandwidth of up to 1 GHz. Measurements were taken under various scenarios, including a subject lying down, sitting, or walking, in both line-of-sight and non-line-of-sight conditions, and with one or two subjects present simultaneously. The results indicate that while vital sign detection is generally feasible, its effectiveness is influenced by several factors, such as the subjects clothing, activity, as well as the distance and angle relative to the sensing system. In addition, no significant influence of bandwidth was detected since the vital signs information is encoded in the phase of the signal.

Zhihao Tao, Athina P. Petropulu

Radar-based vital sign monitoring (VSM) systems have become valuable for non-contact health monitoring by detecting physiological activities, such as respiration and heartbeat, remotely. However, the conventional phased array used in VSM is vulnerable to privacy breaches, as an eavesdropper can extract sensitive vital sign information by analyzing the reflected radar signals. In this paper, we propose a novel approach to protect privacy in radar-based VSM by modifying the radar transmitter hardware, specifically by strategically selecting the transmit antennas from the available antennas in the transmit array. By dynamically selecting which antennas connect or disconnect to the radio frequency chain, the transmitter introduces additional phase noise to the radar echoes, generating false frequencies in the power spectrum of the extracted phases at the eavesdropper's receiver. The antenna activation pattern is designed to maximize the variance of the phases introduced by antenna selection, which effectively makes the false frequencies dominate the spectrum, obscuring the actual vital sign frequencies. Meanwhile, the authorized receiver, having knowledge of the antenna selection pattern, can compensate for the phase noise and accurately extract the vital signs. Numerical experiments are conducted to validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in enhancing privacy while maintaining vital sign monitoring.

Lars Norgren, Norbert Weiss, Sigrid Nikol et al.

Abstract Background Revascularization is the primary treatment modality for chronic limb-threatening ischaemia (CLTI), but is not feasible in all patients. PLX-PAD is an off-the-shelf, placental-derived, mesenchymal stromal cell-like cell therapy. This study aimed to evaluate whether PLX-PAD would increase amputation-free survival in people with CLTI who were not candidates for revascularization. Methods People with CLTI and minor tissue loss (Rutherford 5) who were unsuitable for revascularization were entered into a randomized, parallel-group, placebo-controlled, multinational, blinded, trial, in which PLX-PAD was compared with placebo (2 : 1 randomization), with 30 intramuscular injections (0.5 ml each) into the index leg on days 0 and 60. Planned follow-up was 12–36 months, and included vital status, amputations, lesion size, pain and quality-of-life assessments, haemodynamic parameters, and adverse events. Results Of 213 patients enrolled, 143 were randomized to PLX-PAD and 70 to placebo. Demographics and baseline characteristics were balanced. Most patients were Caucasian (96.2%), male (76.1%), and ambulatory (85.9%). Most patients (76.6%) reported at least one adverse event, which were mostly expected events in CLTI, such as skin ulcer or gangrene. The probability of major amputation or death was similar for placebo and PLX-PAD (33 and 28.6% respectively; HR 0.93, 95% c.i. 0.53 to 1.63; P = 0.788). Revascularization and complete wound healing rates were similar in the two groups. A post hoc analysis of a subpopulation of 121 patients with a baseline haemoglobin A1c level below 6.5% showed improved 12-month amputation-free survival (HR 0.46, 0.21 to 0.99; P = 0.048). Conclusion Although there was no evidence that PLX-PAD reduced amputation-free survival in the entire study population, benefit was observed in patients without diabetes mellitus or whose diabetes was well controlled; this requires confirmation in further studies. Trial registration: NCT03006770 (http://www.clinicaltrials.gov); 2015-005532-18 (EudraCT Clinical Trials register - Search for 2015-005532-18).

Valerie Mueller, M. Hauer, Glenn Sheriff

Sea-level rise is likely to worsen the impacts of hurricanes, storm surges, and tidal flooding on coastal access to basic services. We investigate the historical impact of tidal flooding on mortality rates of the elderly population in coastal Florida using administrative records of individual deaths, demographics, and residential location combined with tidal gauge and high-resolution elevation data. We incorporate data capturing storm and precipitation events into our empirical model to distinguish between disruptions from routine sunny-day flooding and less predictable tropical storm-induced flooding. We find that a 1-standard-deviation (20-millimeter) increase in tidal flooding depth increases mortality rates by 0.46% to 0.60% among those aged 65 or older. Our estimates suggest that future sea-level rises may contribute to an additional 130 elderly deaths per year in Florida relative to 2019, all else being equal. The enhanced risk is concentrated among residents living more than nine minutes away from the nearest hospital. Results suggest that tidal flooding may augment elderly mortality risk by delaying urgent medical care.

Misha T. Kummel, David A. Vasseur

Incorporating stochasticity into ecological modeling is vital for understanding the structure and function of ecological systems, but stochasticity has been challenging to consistently introduce into foundational ecological theory. The Gillespie stochastic simulation algorithm (herein SSA) provides a key method to represent demographic stochasticity, but due to its foundational assumptions is inadequate for problems involving intra‐population variation and extrinsically/environmentally‐driven rapid changes in demographic rates. Two recent extensions to the SSA address these limitations: one augments the SSA with individual‐linked trait distributions that let us track trait changes across individuals and populations and the other introduces a methodological innovation to allow demographic rates to change between events; in four case studies we demonstrate the utility of these advances and highlight that simultaneously integrating both extensions into a single framework allows us to tackle a new class of ecological and evolutionary questions that have typically not been explored in continuous time modeling.

Marta Wilk, Nicola Firman, Gill Harper et al.

Objective We hypothesised that adults living in overcrowded households were more likely to be diagnosed with Serious Mental Illness (SMI) or depression after accounting for individual, household and area-level factors.  Approach We linked primary care records of adults currently registered with all general practices in the north-east London region on 21/03/2021 to housing data using pseudonymised unique property reference numbers (pUPRNs), giving a sample of 762,718 adults in 329,948 households. Primary outcomes were a primary care diagnosis of SMI or depression. Overcrowding was defined as <32.5m2 per person. We estimated the adjusted odds (aOR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of SMI or depression when living in an overcrowded household, adjusting for individual (age, sex, ethnic group), household (size, composition), and area (Index of Multiple Deprivation) characteristics. We conducted logistic regression models with robust standard errors in RStudio. Results SMI and depression were diagnosed in 6,492 (0.9%) and 45,053 (5.9%) adults respectively;  584,515 (76.6%) adults lived in overcrowded households.  In univariable analyses, household overcrowding was inversely related to risk of SMI or depression (aOR[CI]: 0.42 [0.39,0.44]; 0.62 [0.61,0.64]). The direction of effect reversed on adjustment for household size, composition, and area-level deprivation: 1.22 [1.12,1.33]; 1.07 [1.04,1.10] for SMI and depression respectively.   Conclusions We found significant associations between SMI and depression and household overcrowding, using a novel method of record linkage to estimate household overcrowding but are not able to establish causality of observed associations in this cross-sectional study.    Implications More research is needed to understand how housing conditions affect mental health.

Marie Pisani, Madeline Oguss, Claire Manneh et al.

Introduction Overdose Fatality Review (OFR) teams within health departments rely on data from multiple isolated sources to study the opioid crisis. Recently, we linked electronic health record data with state agency data to form a regional Substance Misuse Data Commons (SMDC) using privacy-preserving record linkage. Our goal in this study was to use human factors design principles to design a data dashboard for OFR teams using the linked datasets that will overcome current barriers within OFR workflows. Methods We utilized NASA task load surveys, semi-structured interviews, and design sessions with end users to identify data needs for an optimal dashboard design. We assessed current workloads, data collection processes, and desired future state. We subsequently performed iterative design sessions for the generation and evaluation of low-fidelity prototypes. To overcome issues with privacy and security, we used synthetic data in a cloud-based platform to represent the SMDC for simulation.  Results Eleven OFR organizers participated. Pre-dashboard surveys on existing workflow showed high mental workload associated with data aggregation and case review, identifying a need for more accessible, comprehensive data. In our low-fidelity dashboard demo with synthetic data, iterative design adjustments were made in data visualization, storyline organizations, and theme-based data aggregation across pre-hospital and hospital data. Conclusions We refined the data dashboard prototype into a high-fidelity version, set for further usability and human factors evaluation. We addressed privacy and security concerns through synthetic data use while the real-world data is maintained in a HIPAA-secure Azure cloud environment with access for approved users.

Marek Šuppa, Daniel Skala, Daniela Jašš et al.

This study details our approach for the CASE 2024 Shared Task on Climate Activism Stance and Hate Event Detection, focusing on Hate Speech Detection, Hate Speech Target Identification, and Stance Detection as classification challenges. We explored the capability of Large Language Models (LLMs), particularly GPT-4, in zero- or few-shot settings enhanced by retrieval augmentation and re-ranking for Tweet classification. Our goal was to determine if LLMs could match or surpass traditional methods in this context. We conducted an ablation study with LLaMA for comparison, and our results indicate that our models significantly outperformed the baselines, securing second place in the Target Detection task. The code for our submission is available at https://github.com/NaiveNeuron/bryndza-case-2024

Manoel Jarra, Oliver Lorscheid, Eduardo Vital

In this paper, we introduce morphisms for matroids with coefficients (in the sense of Baker and Bowler) and quiver matroids. We investigate their basic properties, such as functoriality, duality, minors and cryptomorphic characterizations in terms of vectors, circuits and bases (a.k.a. Grassmann-Plücker functions). We generalize quiver matroids to quiver matroid bundles and construct their moduli space, which is an $\mathbb{F}_1$-analogue of a complex quiver Grassmannian. Eventually we introduce a suitable interpretation of $\mathbb{F}_1$-points for these moduli spaces, so that in 'nice' cases their number is equal to the Euler characteristic of the associated complex quiver Grassmannian.

Chieh-Hsun Hsieh, Tung-Lin Tsai, Po-Hsuan Tseng

This paper investigates the application of millimeter-wave (mmWave) radar for the estimation of human vital signs. Aiming to obtain more accurate frequency estimation for periodic signals of respiration and heartbeat, we propose the harmonic MUSIC (HMUSIC) algorithm to consider harmonic components for frequency estimation of vital sign signals. In the experiments, we tested different subjects' vital signs. Experimental results demonstrate that the 89-th percentile errors in respiration rate and the 88-th percentile errors in heartbeat rate are less than 3 respirations per minute and 5 beats per minute.

Petar Vasić

Problem of international migration evidence and statistics in Serbia is well known by far. Migration balance is calculated for entire intercensal period by vital statistics method. Values gained in such a way aren’t specified by age and generation, thus can be tracked only by period. In the other hand, mirror statistics doesn't provide much more than a crude migration balance estimation. In this article we will try to estimate migration balance by age and by cohort. Based on data on vital events and census data we will calculate migration balance, and all the indicators related to it. Analysis is covering the period from 1981. to 2022. and is related to the total population of Serbia. We will also analyse possible differences between generations and periods by statistical analysis. Such methodologically uncommon approach will give us valuable information about age-specific time-trends in migration of population in Serbia. Period effect should reveal are there any differences between pre-crisis (1981-1991) and post-crisis (2002-2022) period in the level of migration, cohort effect should reveal are there significant differences in international spatial mobility between generations, and, in the end, age effect should prove well known pattern of migration selectivity. Results should be applicable mostly in formulating assumptions about future migrations and theirs age-specific influence on total population of Serbia. Similar approach could be used for all lower territorial levels where data are available. Significance of knowing migration in detail is higher for demographic development in lower territorial units, so this procedure could find its application particularly in population projections of subnational level.

Nevena Trnavčević, A. Knežević

Questions of ethnic identity in multicultural societies are of particular importance today and are reflected in various ethnostatistical and ethnodemographic studies. In addition to the population census, an equally important source of data for ethnodemographic research is the vital statistics that has been recorded in Serbia since the first half of the 19th century, but the distribution of data by nationality has only been available since the 1950s. In the post-war period, vital statistics underwent methodological changes, particularly between 1965 and 1970, when the publication of vital events by nationality was suspended, making it difficult to study the demographics of those ethnic groups that experienced negative natural increase for the first time during this period. The second problem is related to the application of subjective criteria in the ethnic declaration of vital events, which directly causes a statistical discrepancy between the declared ethnic identity of the mother at birth and the statement of the death reporter of the same person. This phenomenon is especially pronounced in statistically variable (floating) ethnic groups whose population size fluctuates due to their frequent change of attitude when stating their own ethnic identity in official statistics. Therefore, in this paper we will focus on the study of the quality of ethnostatistical data of vital statistics using the example of a comparative analysis of selected mortality indicators according to the period 1970-2020 which directly influenced the pronounced fluctuations in the dynamics of the natural movement of certain ethnic groups. This will show whether vital statistics data can be accepted and used without restriction as a quantitative basis for demographic and other research.

R. Boateng, A. Yawson, P. Adoma

Background The variations in health between rural and urban population have become an increasingly significant public health concern in developing countries including Ghana where urbanization is occurring. Whereas urbanization results in improved access to healthcare services, the concomitant negative consequences of urbanization coupled with unfavorable compositional and contextual attributes can affect the health of populations. The study sought to examine the effect of rural–urban residence and selected socio-demographic factors on perceived health state among aging population by employing a nationally representative data collected by the WHO from 2014 to 2015. Methods The data were derived from the WHO Study on Aging wave 2 released in 2019. A total of 4511 individuals, made up of 1018 adults between 18 and 49 years and 3493 respondents within the ages of 50 years and above, were involved in this study. The study examined the Spearman’s rho correlations between perceived health, rural–urban residence, age, sex, marital status, ever schooled, current work state, religion, and regional location. Subsequently, the study employed a multivariable ordinal logistic regression model to test the effect of the selected biosocial and contextual variables on perceived health state. Results The selected socio-demographic variables significantly correlated with health state, except for rural–urban residence. However, the predictive ability of rural–urban residence and the socio-demographic variables on perceived health state were strongly ascertained. It was observed that age, sex, rural–urban residence, and current state of work among aging populations were significant predictors of perceived health state as demonstrated by odds ratios and significant p values. The contextual factor of regional location was the most significant variable that increases the perceived health state of respondents in the study. Conclusions Continues engagement in work-related activities, an individual’s age within the aging continuum and regional location coupled with its environmental and ecological attributes, may significantly influence the development of positive perception toward health state, which forms a vital constituent of an individual health seeking behavior.

Mijatović Boško

This text contains an account of the first work on theoretical demography in Serbia, which was written in 1862 by Kosta Cukić, a doctor of philosophy from Heidelberg and the first widely recognised Serbian economist. He dealt with this topic in the second volume of his State Economy textbook, the title of which was Economic Policy. Writing about population problems in economic textbooks was a common European practice at that time. Although he wrote for a textbook, his work was not a retelling of generally accepted theories, but a critical discussion of issues that had not been resolved in contemporary science. Therefore, his work can be considered original in the full sense of the word. In the theoretical sense, Cukić relied on Malthus, but also provided significantly different perspectives on many issues. He accepted Malthus’s position that the amount of food is a limiting factor in population growth and that natural fertility is very high due to people’s strong sexual drive. But there were also important differences: in Cukić’s theoretical framework, the iron law of wages does not apply, i.e. wages do not always strive for the existential minimum, as Malthus argued. Cukić also argues that capital affects fertility, since it affects the amount of available resources. Cukić was not a pessimist like Malthus, and instead observed a significant population growth in Europe at the time, without mass famine and pestilence. As we can see, Cukić dealt a lot with Malthus and his theory. This is understandable considering that Malthus was the preeminent theoretician whose work focused on the population problem in those decades, and therefore determination according to his theory and discussion with him was inevitable for anyone who intended to write about population problems. Cukić also dealt with population policy and those aspects of it that were available to the governments of the time: immigration, emigration, and marriage. The basis of his views was strong and consistent liberalism in every respect. Cukić advocated for expanding personal freedoms, such as free decision-making about marriage, and free immigration to the country and emigration from it. In some places he would set minimum technical conditions. “Personal freedom... is the ideal of the political consciousness of the present time”. Accordingly, he claimed that “citizens are not just means for governmental purposes”, but on the contrary, it is the government’s duty to “facilitate and support the aspirations of citizens to particular and general happiness”, thus repeating John Locke’s idea that the state exists for the sake of citizens, and not citizens for the sake of the state. Cukić belonged to a wide circle of authors in the mid-19th century who fundamentally rejected Malthus’s theory: on the one hand, economists who claimed that technological progress and a deepened division of labour would lead to economic progress that would forever postpone the existential crisis that Malthus feared; and on the other, demographers who believed that workers would control their fertility to preserve living standards to a greater extent than Malthus thought possible. Towards the end of the 19th century, the decline of fertility in Western countries provided strong evidence in favour of the latter.

Bekelu Negash, Alan Katz, Christine J. Neilson et al.

Introduction Using data in research often requires that the data first be de-identified, particularly in the case of health data, which often include Personal Identifiable Information (PII) and/or Personal Health Identifying Information (PHII). There are established procedures for de-identifying structured data, but de-identifying clinical notes, electronic health records, and other records that include free text data is more complex. Several different ways to achieve this are documented in the literature. This scoping review identifies categories of de-identification methods that can be used for free text data. Methods We adopted an established scoping review methodology to examine review articles published up to May 9, 2022, in Ovid MEDLINE; Ovid Embase; Scopus; the ACM Digital Library; IEEE Explore; and Compendex. Our research question was: What methods are used to de-identify free text data? Two independent reviewers conducted title and abstract screening and full-text article screening using the online review management tool Covidence. Results The initial literature search retrieved 3,312 articles, most of which focused primarily on structured data. Eighteen publications describing methods of de-identification of free text data met the inclusion criteria for our review. The majority of the included articles focused on removing categories of personal health information identified by the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability Act (HIPAA). The de-identification methods they described combined rule-based methods or machine learning with other strategies such as deep learning. Conclusion Our review identifies and categorises de-identification methods for free text data as rule-based methods, machine learning, deep learning and a combination of these and other approaches. Most of the articles we found in our search refer to de-identification methods that target some or all categories of PHII. Our review also highlights how de-identification systems for free text data have evolved over time and points to hybrid approaches as the most promising approach for the future.

Steve Fonin Mbouadeu, Martin Lorenzo, Ken Barker et al.

Mapping ongoing news headlines to event-related classes in a rich knowledge base can be an important component in a knowledge-based event analysis and forecasting solution. In this paper, we present a methodology for creating a benchmark dataset of news headlines mapped to event classes in Wikidata, and resources for the evaluation of methods that perform the mapping. We use the dataset to study two classes of unsupervised methods for this task: 1) adaptations of classic entity linking methods, and 2) methods that treat the problem as a zero-shot text classification problem. For the first approach, we evaluate off-the-shelf entity linking systems. For the second approach, we explore a) pre-trained natural language inference (NLI) models, and b) pre-trained large generative language models. We present the results of our evaluation, lessons learned, and directions for future work. The dataset and scripts for evaluation are made publicly available.