Migration Balance in Serbia: Age, Cohort and Period Analysis

Problem of international migration evidence and statistics in Serbia is well known by far. Migration balance is calculated for entire intercensal period by vital statistics method. Values gained in such a way aren’t specified by age and generation, thus can be tracked only by period. In the other hand, mirror statistics doesn't provide much more than a crude migration balance estimation. In this article we will try to estimate migration balance by age and by cohort. Based on data on vital events and census data we will calculate migration balance, and all the indicators related to it. Analysis is covering the period from 1981. to 2022. and is related to the total population of Serbia. We will also analyse possible differences between generations and periods by statistical analysis. Such methodologically uncommon approach will give us valuable information about age-specific time-trends in migration of population in Serbia. Period effect should reveal are there any differences between pre-crisis (1981-1991) and post-crisis (2002-2022) period in the level of migration, cohort effect should reveal are there significant differences in international spatial mobility between generations, and, in the end, age effect should prove well known pattern of migration selectivity. Results should be applicable mostly in formulating assumptions about future migrations and theirs age-specific influence on total population of Serbia. Similar approach could be used for all lower territorial levels where data are available. Significance of knowing migration in detail is higher for demographic development in lower territorial units, so this procedure could find its application particularly in population projections of subnational level.