Improving public transport connectivity is crucial for decarbonisation and economic growth. Current transport planning approaches to addressing connectivity problems rely on trial-and-error approaches to identify problems and generate options, limited by planners' incomplete knowledge and the overwhelming volume of available travel data.We introduce a machine-assisted approach to identify opportunities for connectivity enhancements from origin-destination data and generate prioritised intervention options. Using an origin-destination matrix for Greater London covering approximately 1200 activity centres, our method applies trajectory clustering to identify potential high-demand corridors with poor public transport quality.Our prototype automatically generates multiple public transport scheme options (local bus, express bus, metro) within these corridors along with approximate operating costs. These options are batch-tested using accelerated assignment modelling that optimises mode choice, frequency, and route generation, and the results are given ordered according to benefit-cost ratios.This approach is now being used to supplement human planners’ knowledge in the development of new express bus services in London.
Transportation and communications, Transportation engineering
Abstract South Africa joined BRICS with the aim of benefiting from enhanced trade with the grouping, which encompasses four of the largest economies in the world. This article undertook an empirical review to determine an answer to the following research question (RQ): whether South Africa’s exports to the original four BRIC/BRICs member countries had grown and diversified following its membership over the first fourteen-year timeframe (2010–2024)? Across these, decline was identified in the findings, demonstrating that South Africa’s participation in the group has performed below its potential and stated rationale. The article notes a growing trade deficit and lack of industrialised imports from South Africa, especially when compared with the EU and the US. This is shown to be mainly due to South Africa’s asymmetrical openness towards the BRICs, including having the single-lowest tariff rates towards the other four members at 4.9 to 5.3%, while the next lowest BRICs’ general tariff is at 10.3%. Against these findings, the article makes the case for a BRICS Plus treaty in order to eliminate any tariff and non-tariff barriers, as well as formulate realistic expectations and obligations for internal cohesion and external engagement based on credible commitment.
Political institutions and public administration - Asia (Asian studies only), Economic growth, development, planning
As a famous coastal tourist city in China, Sanya is facing the dual challenges of solid waste management and resource utilization while tourism is booming. To realize efficient solid waste management and innovative circular economy models, Sanya actively explores and practices the construction path of a “zero-waste city”. In this study, Pearson correlation analysis and material flow analysis were used to analyze the factors influencing the amount of municipal solid waste (MSW) generated in Sanya and the changes in the effectiveness of MSW treatment in Sanya before the construction of the “zero-waste city” (2018) and five years later (2023). The results of the study show that the construction of a “zero-waste city” in Sanya, through the implementation of a series of policy measures, including the strengthening of strategic planning and leadership, the upgrading of capacity building, and the promotion of nationwide action participation, has effectively promoted the efficient synergistic treatment of MSW, thereby realizing both environmental benefits and economic benefits.
ABSTRACT As rapid urbanization becomes a key topic within urban studies and planning particularly in the Global South, it needs to be considered what radical implications to urban environment mean. Reviewing literature on urbanization and its implications on urban environment from within the Global South and on sustainable development research and environmental studies, this article discusses eight implications of urbanization-environmental conundrum: pollution, water resource degradation, urban heat island effect, sea level rise and urban flooding, urban sprawl and slum growth, urban agriculture decline, public health deterioration, and urban wetland destruction that question the ontology of urbanization in Global South cities. Drawing on cases from Saudi Arabian cities, findings indicate that sustainable development agenda is skewed towards socio-economic development with limited focus on environmental issues. This situation is threatening the sustainability of rapidly urbanizing cities. The paper proposes a rhizomatic understanding of environmental importance as a roadmap for sustainable and transformative urbanization in Global South. This ontology changes understandings of what sustainable urbanization should be in rapidly growing Global South cities.
High-quality marine economic development (HMED) is regarded as a new development pattern of the marine economy in China. This paper aims to examine the dynamic changes and improvement strategies of HMED from the perspective of the green total factor productivity (GTFP) growth. First, the GTFP growth of the marine economy in China’s coastal regions for the period 2007–2020 is calculated using the bootstrapped Malmquist index. Second, the dynamic changes and spatial impacts of the GTFP growth are characterized using kernel density estimation (KDE). Moreover, a novel analytical framework to study the improvement strategies of the GTFP is developed. Within this framework, the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis (fsQCA) method is used to explore the paths to achieve HMED. The findings show that: (i) the GTFP growth for coastal regions shows significant fluctuations, suggesting that a stable pattern of marine economic development has yet to be established; (ii) the regional distribution of GTFP growth varies significantly, with provinces with fast GTFP growth gathering resources from neighboring provinces, resulting in a siphon effect; (iii) for coastal provinces that lack certain development conditions, the combined effect of other advantageous factors can be used to achieve HMED. Finally, this study presents policy recommendations for achieving HMED, which can provide insights into the design of China’s future marine economic policies.
First published online 10 September 2024
Purpose: During the last two decades, housing price fluctuations in some countries including Iran have been a main challenge of the housing market and the country's economy. In one period, there was a significant increase in housing prices and, in another period, it decreased or stabilized. Relatively high and widespread, it governs the price of housing, as a result of which significant developments have occurred in the housing sector and in the entire economy. In new theories, housing prices can fluctuate over time, and housing price fluctuations can be divided into two important categories. First, minor fluctuations result from market structure based on fundamentals. The housing market is based on the housing supply and demand conditions and the endogenous factors of the housing sector. Hence, the gradual and slow changes in the housing price over time are caused by the basic and underlying factors of the housing market and through changes in the total cost. Housing production changes housing prices. Second, housing cyclical shocks or impulses, are the exogenous factors that create cyclical shocks in the housing sector, and the monetary policy's effect on asset prices, including real estate and housing, is determined. The capital market, household asset portfolio composition and macroeconomic variables are among them.Methodology: We assume thatis the probability space, is a filter created by Brownian and Poisson process with is intensity. We also assume that Brownian process, Poisson process and price jump are independent of one another. housing prices are based on time . In the Black-Scholes model (BSM), housing prices at time t are modeled by the following geometric Brownian process:where is the average and standard deviation of housing prices. In the jump diffusion model (JDM), housing prices are calculated by the following equation:where is the expected growth rate, is the turbulence of the Brownian process, and is the housing price at time t and before the jump.Results and discussion: In this research, using GEM algorithm, the five parameters of jump diffusion model were estimated and then two parameters of Black-Scholes model were estimated using the maximum likelihood method. Next, the simulation of the future housing price was done based on the Monte-Carlo method. The simulation was done in 100,000 repetitions, and then the best model was selected. The housing price was simulated based on the real price, so that the price at time t could be calculated with its next monthly price, i.e. t+1. This method was repeated until the last data. In this research, many models were simulated with random numbers generated for housing prices to get the best model with the least error. In three cases of 6 months, 12 months and 24 months, housing prices were simulated and predicted. One way to calculate the accuracy of the model was based on the confidence interval with the assumption of normal approximation. One way to check the stability of the obtained coefficients of the models was to repeat the simulation with different random numbers and calculate the average performance of each model. In this research, in order to avoid bringing a large number of estimated models, 25 models with the best performance and the least error, and among these 25 models, the best models were identified.The results of the models show that, in most of the provincial centers of Iran, the jump diffusion model yields better results than the Black-Scholes model. Also, in some provincial centers, the 6-month performance is better, and, in some others, 12-month or 24-month performance is better. On the other hand, some provincial centers perform better in 6 months, 12 months and 24 months. The results of the average jump frequency in the centers of the provinces of Iran in the housing market show that, for most of the provinces, the average jump frequency is a high number, which indicates high fluctuations and the high impact of internal and external shocks in the Iranian housing market.Conclusions and policy implications: Accurate modeling of the pricing of various assets, including the housing market, as well as its fluctuations, has always been one of the concerns of researchers and policymakers. Therefore, this research aimed at the comparative analysis of housing prices using Black-Scholes asset pricing models and jump diffusion in the provincial centers of Iran. This study used the monthly housing price data in the provincial centers of Iran for a period from March 2009 to March 2023. In addition, through the GEM algorithm, the jump diffusion model and the maximum likelihood method, the Black-Scholes model was fulfilled, and then the future housing prices in the centers of the provinces of Iran were simulated by the Monte Carlo method. The research results show that, in most provinces of Iran, the jump diffusion model has better and more accurate results than the Black-Scholes model in 6, 12 and 24 months of performance. It is worth mentioning that, in some provincial centers, the results of the Black-Scholes model were better than the jump diffusion model. According to the results of the average jump frequency, it is clear that the highest and lowest average jump frequencies belong to Khorasan Razavi and Kohgiluyeh-Boyer Ahmad Provinces with values of 0.58 and 0.09, respectively.
Ruzelan Khalid, Mohd Kamal Mohd Nawawi, Nurhanis Ishak
et al.
A speed-density model can be utilised to efficiently flow pedestrians in a network. However, how each model measures and optimises the performance of the network is rarely reported. Thus, this paper analyses and optimises the flow in a topological network using various speed-density models. Each model was first used to obtain the optimal arrival rates to all individual networks. The optimal value of each network was then set as a flow constraint in a network flow model. The network flow model was solved to find the optimal arrival rates to the source networks. The optimal values were then used to measure their effects on the performance of each available network. The performance results of the model were then compared with thatof other speed-density models. The analysis of the results can help decision-makers understand how arrival rates propagate through traffic and determine the level of the network throughputs. (original abstract)
Abstract This study explores whether and how innovation policy concepts can be adapted to address the needs of low-income developing countries and how they can advance their sustainable development objectives, such as economic growth, increased productivity, entrepreneurship, and job creation. We devise a conceptual approach for ensuring the advancement of innovation and entrepreneurship in low-income countries, design and test a methodology for implementing the conceptual approach, and utilize the case of Ethiopia for demonstration. The Ethiopian case is noteworthy due to a combination of various factors—high economic and demographic growth over the past years, acute need for job creation and focus on marginalized and vulnerable groups in society, need for regional and spatial planning focus, and relatively weak performance in innovation. Considering the challenging conditions in Ethiopia, we assess the conditions for innovation and entrepreneurship promotion in low-income countries. Moreover, we test the performance of seven ecosystem factors (finance, human capital, infrastructure, information, academy, government services, and culture) through key informant interviews, focus-group discussions, and questionnaires involving all ecosystem actors: government, academic and research institutions, and business leaders. Each factor is evaluated using 91 variables. Two aspects are evaluated for each variable on a 1–5 scale: the perceived importance of the variable for innovation advancement, and the current availability of the variable in Ethiopia. The gap between the two scores indicates the “frustration” level of the respondents. The findings indicate a challenging economic situation and low innovation level, but simultaneously high potential for growth—based on a growing market, significant GDP growth, and considerable government commitment and efforts. The ecosystem analysis results show that respondents attributed high importance to all ecosystem factors, but expressed frustration due to the low availability of the factors, as well as their weak interaction within the ecosystem—low coordination between government, industry, and academia; insufficient coordination within government; and low interaction among businesses. Based on the analysis results, several directions for innovation and entrepreneurship policy guidelines are derived. 1. Adoption and adaptation. The innovation policy of low-income developing countries should not focus on new knowledge creation. The policy should instead support the adoption and adaptation of incremental innovations, which may have a significant multiplier effect, thereby generating jobs, affecting a numerous consumers and enterprises, and enhancing economic growth. 2. Impact innovation. The innovation strategy of low-income countries should aim to generate an impact on broad segments of the economy. Priority should be given to innovation types in sectors that can lead to major economic impacts and boost productivity and employment—for example, in agriculture, traditional industry, and small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs). 3. Demand-oriented innovation. Demand-oriented innovation, rather than supply-oriented innovation, focuses on market needs. Instead of encouraging technology push, the innovation policy should focus on market pull, respond to people’s unmet needs, and support privatization. 4. Spatial innovation. Innovation policies in a low-income country should adopt the concept of “concentrated dispersal” of innovation activities, thereby providing special grants or funds to SMEs in specific regions or supporting impact investments in priority regions. 5. Government coordination. The innovation capabilities of ecosystem actors are strengthened through mutual learning processes and by facilitating interactions among stakeholders in the innovation community. Therefore, supporting innovation, particularly in a low-income country, necessitates a governmental coordination platform that would set up development priorities, strengthen coordination and collaboration among the ecosystem factors, and provide appropriate regulations, infrastructure, and financial and legal services.
The question of how regions and nations develop new sources of industrial growth is of recurring interest in economic geography and planning studies. From an evolutionary economic geography (EEG) perspective, new growth paths emerge out of existing economic activities and their associated assets and conditions. In response to the micro-economic and endogenous focus of much EEG research, this paper utilises a broader evolutionary perspective on path creation which stresses the dynamic interplay between four sets of factors: regional assets; key economic and organisational actors; mechanisms of path creation; and multi-scalar institutional environments and policy initiatives. Reflecting the importance of extra-regional networks and institutions, this framework is also informed by the Global Production Networks (GPN) approach, which highlights the process of strategic coupling between firms and regions and its political and institutional mediation by state institutions at different spatial scales. We deploy this framework to investigate regional path creation in the context of renewable energy technologies, focusing specifically on the offshore wind industry. We adopt a comparative cross-national approach, examining the evolution of offshore wind in Germany, the UK and Norway. Of the three cases, Germany has developed the most deep-rooted and holistic path to date, characterised by leading roles in both deployment and manufacturing. By contrast, path creation in the UK and Norway has evolved in more partial and selective ways. The UK's growth path is developing in a relatively shallow manner, based largely upon deployment and 'outside in' investment, whilst Norway?s path is emerging in an exogenous, ?inside-out? fashion around a fairly confined set of actors and deployment and supply functions. In conclusion, the paper emphasises the important role of national states in orchestrating the strategic coupling of regional and national assets to particular mechanisms of path creation.
مطالعه حاضر با هدف تحلیل ویژگیهای درگاه کسبوکار الکترونیکیB2B در میان باغداران دشت مغان در سال 1398 انجام شد. دادههای مورد نیاز مطالعه از طریق تکمیل پرسشنامه محققساخته جمع آوری شد که پایایی آن با استفاده از آلفای کرونباخ (بالاتر از مقدار 0/7) و روایی آن با استفاده از نظر کارشناسان مورد تأیید قرار گرفت. جامعه آماری پژوهش مشتمل بر تمامی باغداران دشت مغان (1250=N) بود که 267 نفر از آنها بر مبنای فرمول کوکران و با استفاده از تکنیک نمونهگیری طبقهای با انتساب متناسب مورد مطالعه قرار گرفتند. مطالعه حاضر در چارچوب 7Cs جاورسکی (شامل ویژگیهای زمینه، ارتباطات، محتوا، سفارشیسازی، تجارت، جامعه و اتصالات) با استفاده از تکنیک تحلیل مؤلفه سلسهمراتبی به روش حداقل مربعات جزیی (PLS) صورت گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که از میان هفت ویژگی مورد مطالعه، تجارت در یک درگاه الکترونیکی از اهمیت بالاتری برخوردار است و پس از آن ویژگیهایی همچون محتوا، جامعه، سفارشیسازی، ارتباطات، زمینه و اتصالات قرار دارند. بهطور کلی، باغداران در وهله اول بر خدماتی که در حین شکلگیری یک معامله ضرورت دارد، تأکید مینمایند. این خدمات میتواند شامل اعتماد بین طرفین برای فروش محصولات، وجود پشتیبانی ارسال محصول، امکان رهگیری محصولات، خدمات مربوط به امنیت فروش محصولات و مواردی از این قبیل باشند.
This paper advocates the need for transformative planning practices to cope with contemporary crises of climate change and intensifying economic inequality that regions, city-regions, and cities are increasingly confronted with. In-depth examination of planning processes is useful to grasp some crucial promises and problems of transformative planning and open up new possibilities for practice. Accordingly, the paper includes an investigation into the Territory-Landscape plan-making process developed in the Apulia region, Italy. This explicitly and intentionally aimed at promoting a radical discontinuity in regional planning culture and practice by changing the well-established relationship between territory-landscape protection and spatial planning. The process revealed that ‘landscape’ could function as a constructive picklock for proposing an alternative to the development-as-growth model firmly entrenched in the region, and envisioning desirable futures focused on the concept of ‘local self-sustainable development’. This implies subverting the hegemony of the ‘economic’ that has reduced dwellers to consumers, and the territory to a mere physical support for any kind of land transformation and urban development which exclude dwellers participation. Using the lens of transformative theory and building on an interpretive research approach that included also direct experience, the paper provides insights on changes in vision and concepts, discourses and practices, approach and instruments experienced in such a planning process. In conclusion, it reflects on lessons learned, and highlights some difficulties and contradictions with which the way towards transformative planning is paved for researchers engaged in turning their ideas into significant achievements in the real world.
This paper presents an empirical analysis of the effect of monetary policy
shocks on credit supply in Tunisia, using a vector autoregressive model and
a nonlinear interactive model. The focus is on the magnitude of these shocks
in the presence of foreign banks. The variables of interest are the
concentration index of deposit banks, and monetary policy shocks based on
the monthly data of 27 universal and business banks covering the period 1993
to 2016. The results support a positive and significant impact of
concentration index on credit supply. However, monetary policy shocks appear
to have no significant effect when the market is concentrated with the entry
of foreign banks. The findings of this study also reveal that the entry of
foreign banks neutralises monetary policy shock transmission in the credit
supply, which may be offset by market discipline.
This paper attempts to classify the main areas of threats occurring in enterprises in the information management processes. Particular attention was paid to the effect of the human factor which is present in virtually every area of information security management. The author specifies the threats due to the IT techniques and technologies used and the models of information systems present in business entities. The empirical part of the paper presents and describes the research conducted by the author on information security in business organisations using the traditional IT model and the cloud computing model. The results obtained for both IT models are compared. (original abstract)