Planning for gold: identifying opportunities for public transport interventions through machine learning and appraisal automation

Improving public transport connectivity is crucial for decarbonisation and economic growth. Current transport planning approaches to addressing connectivity problems rely on trial-and-error approaches to identify problems and generate options, limited by planners' incomplete knowledge and the overwhelming volume of available travel data.We introduce a machine-assisted approach to identify opportunities for connectivity enhancements from origin-destination data and generate prioritised intervention options. Using an origin-destination matrix for Greater London covering approximately 1200 activity centres, our method applies trajectory clustering to identify potential high-demand corridors with poor public transport quality.Our prototype automatically generates multiple public transport scheme options (local bus, express bus, metro) within these corridors along with approximate operating costs. These options are batch-tested using accelerated assignment modelling that optimises mode choice, frequency, and route generation, and the results are given ordered according to benefit-cost ratios.This approach is now being used to supplement human planners’ knowledge in the development of new express bus services in London.