Hasil untuk "Economic theory. Demography"

Gauti B. Eggertsson, Neil R. Mehrotra, Jacob A. Robbins

This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from − 1.5 percent to − 2 percent, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E32, E43, E52)

Greeni Maheshwari, Khanh Linh Kha, A. Arokiasamy

Entrepreneurship has been viewed as a critical contributor and an economic engine in a country for creating new jobs and it is crucial for graduates to alter their mindset to become self-employed. Thus, it is necessary to synthesize the factors that impact the entrepreneurial intentions (EI) of students at tertiary level. The aim of this research is twofold; first to identify the factors which have been most studied in the literature and second, to determine which factors are less explored to measure the EI of students. This research adopts the systematic review approach to identify various studies conducted between 2005 to June 2022. The paper further adopted citation analysis and identified the 36 most impactful studies in this area of research. Next, the thematic analysis was conducted and seven main themes (factors) (cognitive, personality, environmental, social, educational, contextual and demographic) of EI determinants were identified. The analysis of the papers clearly demonstrated that the TPB model and cognitive factors dominate this area of research. Furthermore, over half of the studies are conducted in Asia, hence it is important to explore other regions such as Africa, America and Europe and other comparative studies between various regions. The study offers avenues for future research and practical implications of the study for the practitioners.

Sarinya L. Suttharattanagul, Nisit Manotungvorapun

In recent years, sustainability has been receiving attention across various academic disciplines and businesses, particularly in consumer behavior. However, limited studies employ the sociological perspective and brand image to understand how sustainable consumption can lead to purchase decisions. By drawing upon a synthesis of existing literature, this study explores an integrated model with social aspects, branding, and quality perception to examine the relationship between sustainability consumption value and purchase intentions. A quantitative approach is adopted to investigate this relationship among Thai Gen Z respondents. An online survey was conducted by a non-probability sampling method comprising 1,541 respondents, aiming to capture the attitudes, behaviors, and intentions of this demographic segment toward sustainable consumption. The findings reveal the significant relationship between sustainable consumption and purchase intention, especially the effect of brand image on the decision-making process. The findings offer valuable implications for businesses and marketers seeking to align their strategies with evolving preferences for sustainability brand image, fostering a more sustainable and responsible consumption. Additional analysis of genders recommends practical implications for marketing communications. Directions for future research are suggested for academic and consumer research.

J. Benhabib, Alberto Bisin

Invariably, across a cross-section of countries and time periods, wealth distributions are skewed to the right displaying thick upper tails, that is, large and slowly declining top wealth shares. In this survey, we categorize the theoretical studies on the distribution of wealth in terms of the underlying economic mechanisms generating skewness and thick tails. Further, we show how these mechanisms can be micro-founded by the consumption–savings decisions of rational agents in specific economic and demographic environments. Finally we map the large empirical work on the wealth distribution to its theoretical underpinnings. (JEL C46, D14, D31, E21, J31)

O. A. Gromova, I. Yu. Torshin, A. G. Moiseenok

Background. Neurotransmitter adenosine and B-group vitamins have neuroprotective, remyelinizing and anti-neuroinflammatory properties. Despite the studies of these molecules for decades, the molecular mechanisms of their synergistic effect on neuroinflammation processes are unexplored and not systematized.Objective: to establish the molecular mechanisms of synergism of adenosine, thiamine, niacin and cyanocobalamin in counteracting the pathology of diabetic polyneuropathy (DPN).Material and methods. The molecular mechanisms of action of adenosine, thiamine (vitamin B1), niacin (vitamin PP) and cyanocobalamin (vitamin B12) in the pathophysiology of DPN were determined using functional analysis of genomic and proteomic databases.Results. The analysis of 20,180 annotated proteins of the human proteome identified 504 vitamin-PP-dependent, 22 vitamin-B1-dependent, 24 vitamin-B12-dependent and 50 adenosine-dependent proteins. The proteins of the human proteome were detected, the activity or levels of which are important for reducing neuroinflammation, remyelination, neurogenesis, biosynthesis of neuronal adenosine triphosphate, myelin homeostasis, neuroplasticity, neutralization of homocysteine, regeneration of nerve fibers and maintaining the endothelium of the microvascular bed.Conclusion. The discovered molecular mechanisms of synergism of the studied molecules are of fundamental importance for comprehension of the processes of neuroinflammation regulation and remyelination to prevent diabetic polyneuropathy and other neurodegenerative diseases.

Ayda Mussa Yousif Abdulrahman, Rafiduraida binti Abdul Rahman

This research aims to investigate the current operational status of the Ajman Police, focusing on identifying elements and issues that affect operational excellence. Using change management models, including Kotter's 8 Step Model and the ADKAR Model, the paper critically examines the hierarchical structure of the Ajman Police, its specialist groups, and their performance indicators. The problem statement highlights the negative impact of traditional and rigid organizational structures on innovation, responsiveness, and the limitations of implementing effective public safety measures, prevention, and community policing. The research design adopted is a qualitative methodology, and a sample of senior police officers was interviewed to record their views on the issues of operation and preparedness to change. In conducting the study, Semi-structured interviews were conducted with 10 participants. Results indicate that the Ajman Police has already ventured into technological advancements and civil policing. However, there are still gaps in continuous development, innovation, and the implementation of modern change management practices. The research proposes a culturally, operationally, and technologically oriented framework for change management, specifically tailored to the context of the Ajman Police. The study makes a significant research contribution to both the practice and theory fields by providing a guideline for a change management roadmap for the Ajman Police and other similar agencies, ensuring operational excellence in fast-changing environments.

A. I. Sukhorukov, E. A. Zakharova, E. V. Shvetsov

The article analyzes modeling of investment-construction company work from graph models to digital analogues. Such analysis is necessary in order to build economically grounded twin of the investment-construction company. The need to use advanced digital methods of business-analysis in conditions of real time was substantiated. It was demonstrated that elaboration of digital methods of business-analysis in projects and business-processes in investment-construction work is acute and leans against numerous factors. They are as follows: positive overseas experience in projecting and controlling processes; adjustment of this experience to specific features of project and business-process organization in Russia; use of digital imitation models of investment-construction enterprise in conditions of real time; introduction of digital methods of strategic and operative business-analysis of projects and business-processes into imitation model and digital twins at investment-construction enterprises; use of promising digital technologies in digital methods of business-analysis in projects and business-processes, for instance, analysis of big data, artificial neuron nets, cloud technologies, internet of things, virtual reality, augmented reality, technologies of register distribution, automation and robotics of business-processes, etc. Typical features of digital analysis built in digital twin for effective decision-making in management were identified. The article provided results of modeling visualization and digital analysis of business-processes.

Josep Grau-Bové, Miriam Andrews

This note presents an Agent-Based Model (ABM) with Monte Carlo sampling, designed to simulate the behaviour of a population of objects over time. The model incorporates damage functions with the risk parameters of the ABC framework to simulate adverse events. As a result, it combines continuous and probabilistic degradation. This hybrid approach allows us to study the emergent behavior of the system and explore the range of possible lifetimes of a collection. The main outcome of the model is the decay in condition of a collection as a consequence of all the combined degradation processes. The model is based on six hypotheses that are described for further testing. This paper presents a first attempt at an universal implementation of Collections Demography principles, with the hope that it will generate discussion and the identification of research gaps.

Armando Aliu, Karolina Kaczmarczyk, Jakub Stefanowski

A. Maugeri, M. Barchitta, Federico Puglisi et al.

Background Previous evidence shows that antibiotic use and antimicrobial resistance (AMR) spread are not always perfectly correlated within and between countries. We conducted an ecological analysis to evaluate how demographic, economic, governance, health, and freedom characteristics of 30 European countries contribute to antibiotic consumption and AMR. Methods Using three sources of data (World Bank DataBank, ECDC atlas, and the ESAC-Net database), we created a dataset of: 22 indicators of demographics, health, economic, governance, and freedom; AMR proportions for 25 combinations of pathogens and antibiotics; consumption of antibiotics in the community. We also computed five indexes of demographic, health, economic, governance, and freedom, and an aggregate AMR measure. Relationships between indexes, antibiotic consumption, and AMR proportions were explored using bivariate, multivariable, multivariate, and mediation analyses. Results Multivariate analysis identified three clusters of countries that mainly differed for demographic, health, governance, and freedom indexes. AMR proportion was lower in countries with better indexes ( p  < 0.001), but not necessarily with lower antibiotic consumption. In multivariable models including all five indexes, an increase in the governance index resulted in significant decreases of overall antibiotic consumption ( p  < 0.001) and AMR proportion ( p  = 0.006). Mediation analysis showed that the governance index had an indirect effect on AMR via reducing antibiotic consumption, which accounted only for 31.5% of the total effect. Conclusions These findings could be – at least partially – explained by the contagion theory, for which other factors contribute to high levels of AMR in countries with poor governance. As a result of this evidence, reducing antibiotic use alone is unlikely to solve the AMR problem, and more interventions are needed to increase governance efficiency at global level.

Sha Wang, K. Hung, Wei-Jue Huang

Abstract A critical examination of the literature suggests that further work is needed to understand the relationship between small tourism and hospitality businesses and their external social-economic environments. In particular, the nature of personal and environmental factors influencing tourism entrepreneurship remains unknown. Focusing on one type of small business, guest houses, this study aims to examine entrepreneurs’ motivations from a dynamic perspective and explore the nature of personal and environmental factors affecting motivations for entrepreneurship. Taking a qualitative approach, four patterns of change in (or maintenance of) motivation are identified. Guided by social cognitive theory, this study finds that, among the relevant personal factors are cognitive beliefs, intrinsic needs, and demographic factors, while the environmental facilitators include changes in the tourism market, changes within the industry, and changes in setting/location. Finally, a model of small business operators’ motivations for engaging in entrepreneurship in the tourism and hospitality sector is proposed.

Xiuling Chen, Jie Li

Світлана Черкасова

У статті розглянуті основні види діяльності банківських установ на вітчизняному ринку цінних паперів відповідно до вимог законодавства та форм державного регулювання. Зазначено, що у вітчизняній практиці банкам дозволено виступати на фондовому ринку у ролі емітентів, інституційних інвесторів та професійних учасників, що забезпечують функціонування інститутів інфраструктури цього ринку. Проаналізовані тенденції розвитку емісійної діяльності банків, зокрема щодо випуску корпоративних облігацій упродовж 2017-2021 рр. Зроблений висновок про недостатнє використання зазначеного джерела залучення позикового капіталу у вітчизняній банківській системі. Наголошено на зростанні інтересу банків до вкладень у цінні папери, що зумовлено зниженням попиту в економіці країни на кредитні продукти. Частка інвестицій банків у цінні папери протягом останніх пяти років стрімко зростала і на сьогодні перевищує третину сукупних банківських активів. Зазначено, що особливий інтерес банки мають до вкладень у державні цінні папери, передусім в ОВДП. Значною мірою така тенденція зумовлена достатньо високою доходністю та надійністю цих фондових інструментів та дозволом регулятора щодо формування обов’язкових банківських резервів за рахунок придбання ОВДП. Активного розвитку останніми роками набула діяльність банків в якості первинних дилерів на ринку з розміщення ОВДП, що забезпечує ефективне функціонування і розвиток цього ринку. Зроблено висновок, що форми державного регулювання діяльності банків на вітчизняному ринку цінних паперів демонструють свою ефективність та сприяють зростанню ролі цих установ у фінансовій системі країни, посилюють значення емісійної, інвестиційної та посередницької банківської діяльності у процесах залучення, переміщення інвестиційного капіталу та спрямуванні його на економічне зростання.

Roxana-Daniela PAUN

Distance doesn't separate people, silence does!" Artificial intelligence is a reality and it evolves every day, it simplifies life where it is used in the human’s interest, being already applied in many fields. Is there any risk of moving away from the noble goal of being at the service of the collective good and of being used against people to limit fundamental rights and freedoms? Is there any risk that the totalitarian society will re-establish itself, this time on a global level? The current study presents, in summary, a first analysis of the latest developments in this field, starting from the Chinese experience, as far as it is known and popularized regarding facial recognition made by artificial intelligence for monitoring citizens for the social credit system.

M. Cervellati, Gerrit Meyerheim, U. Sunde

This research develops an expanded unified growth theory that incorporates the endogenous accumulation of physical capital, population, human capital, and technology. The model incorporates a complementarity between physical capital and human capital and can be extended to a multi-country setting with international technology diffusion. The analytical characterization of the mechanisms behind the observed patterns of long-run growth and comparative development delivers a consistent explanation for a large set of seemingly unrelated empirical facts. A quantitative multi-country version of the model matches various empirical regularities of long-run growth dynamics and comparative development patterns that have previously been studied in isolation. The findings also shed new light on the role of the demographic transition for convergence patterns, the specification of cross-country growth regressions, technology spillovers, and the secular stagnation debate.

Manga Motho, Oluwatoyin Dare Kolawole, M. Motsholapheko et al.

ABSTRACT Water is one of the most important natural resources without which humans cannot survive. Although efforts have been geared toward ensuring an adequate water supply, potable water shortages continue to persist. This paper, therefore, analyses water demand at a local scale to enhance policymakers’ ability to make informed decisions on water demand management. The paper specifically probes the influence of demographic and socio-economic factors on household water demand in Ngamiland District of Botswana. Informed by neo-classical economic theory of supply and demand, a cross-sectional survey of 497 households was undertaken in Maun and Gumare villages. Household survey data collection was done using interview schedules and key informant interviews. The results revealed that gender showed a positive association with household’s monthly water demand, (X2 = 14.961; ρ < 0.05). The result of Spearman’s rank correlation test showed that household income and household size were the significant determinants of water demand. Household size was found to be the most variable influencing demand at a significant but moderate positive correlation with monthly water demand, rs = 0.422 and ρ < 0.05. The paper argues that policymakers might take into consideration the socio-economic parameters, which have a significant influence on water use and demand to implement proper demand management strategies.

Balázs Taksás, Ernő Hegedűs

A 20. és 21. századi tapasztalatok alapján a nemzeti védelmi ipar létrehozásának 3 alapvető feltétele van: külső vagy belső biztonsági kihívások, politikai akarat, gazdasági és társadalmi erőforrások. Ez a cikk ez utóbbin keresztül mutatja be a magyar védelmi ipar jövőképét. Átfogóan elemzi a védelmi ipar erőforrásbázisát, megvizsgálja az olyan szükséges elemeket, mint a technológia és know-how, tőke, munkaerő, menedzsment tudás, beszállítói lánc, kapcsolódó ipar és szolgáltatás ágak, innovációs ökoszisztéma, kutatás- fejlesztési infrastruktúra. Bemutatja a védelmi iparpolitika céljait, lehetséges eszközeit, jövőbeni lehetőségeit és korlátait. Based on 20th and 21st century experiences the successful creation of national defense industry has three essential requirements: external or internal security challenges, strong political commitment, economic and social resources. Focusing on the last one, this article presents the vision of the Hungarian defense industry. It comprehensively analyzes the defense industrial base with all its required elements: technology and know-how, labour forces, entrepreneurship and management skills, domestic supply chains, connecting industrial and service branches, innovation ecosystem, research and development infrastructure. It is also a brief of the goals, possible tools, future opportunities and restrictions of the defense industrial policy.

László Trautmann

A Köz-Gazdaság interjút kért Kalotay Kálmántól, az UNCTAD korábbi vezető közgazdászától, aki jelenleg az ELKH KRTK Világgazdasági Intézetének kutatója. Kalotay Kálmán 1983 és 1990 között az akkori Marx Károly Budapesti Közgazdaságtudományi Egyetem Világgazdasági Tanszékének volt ösztöndíjasa, adjunktusa. 1990 és 1996 között az Egyesült Nemzetek Kereskedelmi és Fejlesztési Konferenciája (UNCTAD) Fejlődő Országok Közötti Gazdasági Együttműködési Főosztályának volt (ECDC) gazdasági ügyekkel foglalkozó segédmunkatársa, majd 1996-tól egészen 2021-ig az Egyesült Nemzetek Kereskedelmi és Fejlesztési Konferenciája (UNCTAD) Befektetési és Vállalkozásfejlesztési Főosztályának (DIAE) gazdasági ügyekkel foglalkozó munkatársa. Tagja volt a World Investment Reportokat és az Investment Policy Review-kat készítő csoportnak. Az előbbinek 1996–2010 és 2016–2021 között, az utóbbinak 2010–2016 között. Széles körű oktatási tapasztalattal rendelkezik, tanított Torinóban, Finnországban és Mexikóban is.

Zhijian Wang, Shujie Zhou, Qinmei Yao et al.

Game dynamics theory, as a field of science, the consistency of theory and experiment is essential. In the past 10 years, important progress has been made in the merging of the theory and experiment in this field, in which dynamics cycle is the presentation. However, the merging works have not got rid of the constraints of Euclidean two-dimensional cycle so far. This paper uses a classic four-strategy game to study the dynamic structure (non-Euclidean superplane cycle). The consistency is in significant between the three ways: (1) the analytical results from evolutionary dynamics equations, (2) agent-based simulation results from learning models and (3) laboratory results from human subjects game experiments. The consistency suggests that, game dynamic structure could be quantitatively predictable, observable and controllable in general.

Jussi T. S. Heikkila

The Journal of Economic Literature codes classification system (JEL) published by the American Economic Association (AEA) is the de facto standard classification system for research literature in economics. The JEL classification system is used to classify articles, dissertations, books, book reviews, and working papers in EconLit, a database maintained by the AEA. Over time, it has evolved and extended to a system with over 850 subclasses. This paper reviews the history and development of the JEL classification system, describes the current version, and provides a selective overview of its uses and applications in research. The JEL codes classification system has been adopted by several publishers, and their instructions are reviewed. There are interesting avenues for future research as the JEL classification system has been surprisingly little used in existing bibliometric and scientometric research as well as in library classification systems.