Semantic Scholar Open Access 2019 375 sitasi

A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation

Gauti B. Eggertsson Neil R. Mehrotra Jacob A. Robbins

Lihat Sumber DOI

Abstrak

This paper formalizes and quantifies the secular stagnation hypothesis, defined as a persistently low or negative natural rate of interest leading to a chronically binding zero lower bound (ZLB). Output-inflation dynamics and policy prescriptions are fundamentally different from those in the standard New Keynesian framework. Using a 56-period quantitative life cycle model, a standard calibration to US data delivers a natural rate ranging from − 1.5 percent to − 2 percent, implying an elevated risk of ZLB episodes for the foreseeable future. We decompose the contribution of demographic and technological factors to the decline in interest rates since 1970 and quantify changes required to restore higher rates. (JEL E12, E23, E31, E32, E43, E52)

Topik & Kata Kunci

Economics

Penulis (3)

Gauti B. Eggertsson

Neil R. Mehrotra

Jacob A. Robbins

Format Sitasi

APA MLA BibTeX

Eggertsson, G.B., Mehrotra, N.R., Robbins, J.A. (2019). A Model of Secular Stagnation: Theory and Quantitative Evaluation. https://doi.org/10.1257/MAC.20170367

Akses Cepat

Lihat di Sumber doi.org/10.1257/MAC.20170367

Informasi Jurnal

Tahun Terbit: 2019
Bahasa: en
Total Sitasi: 375×
Sumber Database: Semantic Scholar
DOI: 10.1257/MAC.20170367
Akses: Open Access ✓