Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

George A. Akerlof

Think about Richard Scarry’s Cars and Trucks and Things That Go. Think about what that book would have looked like in sequential decades of the last century had Richard Scarry been alive in each of them to delight and amuse children and parents. Each subsequent decade has seen the development of ever more specialized vehicles. We started with the Model T Ford. We now have more models of backhoe loaders than even the most precocious fouryear-old can identify. What relevance does this have for economics? In the late 1960’s there was a shift in the job description of economic theorists. Prior to that time microeconomic theory was mainly concerned with analyzing the purely competitive, general-equilibrium model based upon profit maximization by firms and utility maximization by consumers. The macroeconomics of the day, the so-called neoclassical synthesis, appended a fixed money wage to such a generalequilibrium system. “Sticky money wages” explained departures from full employment and business-cycle fluctuations. Since that time, both microand macroeconomics have developed a Scarry-ful book of models designed to incorporate into economic theory a whole variety of realistic behaviors. For example, “The Market for ‘Lemons’ ” explored how markets with asymmetric information operate. Buyers and sellers commonly possess different, not identical, information. My paper examined the pathologies that may develop under these more realistic conditions. For me, the study of asymmetric information was a very first step toward the realization of a dream. That dream was the development of a behavioral macroeconomics in the original spirit of John Maynard Keynes’ General Theory (1936). Macroeconomics would then no longer suffer from the “ad hockery” of the neoclassical synthesis, which had overridden the emphasis in The General Theory on the role of psychological and sociological factors, such as cognitive bias, reciprocity, fairness, herding, and social status. My dream was to strengthen macroeconomic theory by incorporating assumptions honed to the observation of such behavior. A team of people has participated in the realization of this dream. Kurt Vonnegut would call this team a kerass, “a group of people who are unknowingly working together toward some common goal fostered by a larger cosmic influence.” In this lecture I shall describe some of the behavioral models developed by this kerass to provide plausible explanations for macroeconomic phenomena which are central to Keynesian economics. For the sake of background, let me take you back a bit in time to review some history of macroeconomic thought. In the late 1960’s the New Classical economists saw the same weaknesses in the microfoundations of macroeconomics that have motivated me. They hated its lack of rigor. And they sacked it. They then held a celebratory bonfire, with an article entitled “After Keynesian Macroeconomics.” The new version of macroeconomics that they produced became standard in the 1970’s. Following its neoclassical synthesis predecessor, New Classical macroeconomics was based on the competitive, general-equilibrium model. But it differed in being much more zealous in insisting that all decisions—consumption and labor supply by † This article is a revised version of the lecture George A. Akerlof delivered in Stockholm, Sweden, on December 8, 2001, when he received the Bank of Sweden Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel. The article is copyright © The Nobel Foundation 2001 and is published here with the permission of the Nobel Foundation.

Léleng Kebalo, Stéphane Zouri

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on income inequality in developing countries. Unlike prior studies, we analyse the role that the fiscal policy could play in the relationship. Using a sample of 66 developing countries over the period 2000–2020, we find at several levels of robustness that, uncertainty increases income inequality in developing countries, especially those with fiscal deficits and less fiscally disciplined. Additionally, we find that fiscal surpluses mitigate the negative effects of uncertainty on wealth distribution which in turn reduces income inequality. This result reveals the socio-economic stabilizing role that fiscal policy management could play during periods of uncertainty. Fiscal policy can maintain and enhance economic stability when countries face certain uncertainty.

Pámer Zoltán

A 2007-2013 közötti programozási időszak a területalapú fejlesztéspolitika kialakítására tett kísérletként értelmezhető, melynek során – az ágazati programok mellett – minden magyarországi régió (így a Baranyát magában foglaló Dél-Dunántúl is) saját operatív programmal rendelkezett. 2014-2020 között ugyanakkor egyetlen országos, viszont különálló megyei keretekkel rendelkező Terület- és Településfejlesztési Operatív Program működött, melyet szintén kiegészítettek az ágazati programok. A tanulmány célja, hogy feltárja: kimutathatók-e tendenciák Baranyában a támogatási programok területi preferenciáiban, továbbá mely járások és települések tekinthetők centrumnak vagy perifériának az EU-források felhasználása terén a két programozási időszakban. A tanulmány első részében – a szakirodalmi bevezetést követően – áttekintem a két programozási időszak stratégiai kereteit, a Baranya megyében vizsgált programokat, illetve a megyére vonatkozó területi célokat. Ezt követően ismertetem az empirikus adatelemzés módszerét és a megfogalmazott kérdéseket, majd bemutatom a két időszak programjait külön-külön, továbbá összehasonlítom a két területfejlesztési célú programot. Kiemelem a két programozási időszakra jellemző területi tendenciákat, továbbá értékelem a forrásfelhasználást a 2014-ben kialakított megyei területi célok mentén. Az összefoglalásban a korábbi elemzések konklúziójaként meghatározom a megye járásainak kohéziós forrásfelhasználási profilját. A tanulmány fontos megállapítása, hogy a megyeszékhely, Pécs részesedése a forrásokból 50% alá süllyedt 2014-2020 között, mely a vidéki térségek előtérbe kerülésére utal. Azonban míg 2007-2013 időszakában mind az egyes járások között, mind a járásokon belül viszonylag egyenletes forrásmegoszlás tapasztalható, addig 2014-2020 között több járás (Bóly, Komló, Mohács) esetében is erőteljes koncentrációt látunk (ezek elsősorban helyi adottságokra épülő gazdaságfejlesztést megvalósító térségek), miközben a leszakadó térségeknek kevesebb támogatás jutott. A preferált járásokon belül is a központok koncentrálták a forrásokat. Mindez összességében növelte a megye elmaradott és fejlődő térségei közötti finanszírozási szakadékot. Az uniós fejlesztéspolitika központi térségekre és városokra történő koncentrálásával csökken annak láthatósága a vidéki térségekben, mely – utóbbi területeken – a hazai finanszírozású eszközök jelentőségének növekedésével jár.

Stéphane Mourlane

Tirthankar Roy

Matus Phunyammalee, Tirawan Buayaem, D. Boriboonhirunsarn

Abstract The aims of this study were to determine prevalence of childbirth fear among uncomplicated pregnant women in Siriraj Hospital and possible associated factors. A total of 305 uncomplicated, singleton pregnant women were enrolled during early third trimester. All participants were interviewed regarding baseline demographic, social, economic, family, and obstetric characteristics. Fear of childbirth (FOC) was evaluated by Thai version of Wijma Delivery Expectancy/Experience Questionnaire Version A (W-DEQ). W-DEQ scores and level of FOC were compared between various characteristics to determine possible associated factors. Mean W-DEQ score was 51.9. Prevalence of low, moderate, high, and severe FOC were 18.4%, 64.9%, 16.1%, and 0.7%, respectively. Mean FOC score was significantly higher in women with unplanned than planned pregnancy (p = .033). Women with high to severe FOC were significantly less likely to have adequate income (p = .03), have family support (p = .02), have been told about delivery (p = .03), and have witnessed delivery (p = .01). IMPACT STATEMENT What is already known on this subject? Prevalence of fear of childbirth (FOC) in Western countries varies from 8 to 27%. FOC have been related to several unwanted conditions, including obstetrics complications, operative vaginal delivery, increased analgesic use in labour, elective caesarean section, postpartum depression, and impaired maternal-infant relation. Several factors related to FOC have been reported, including maternal age, parity, gestational age, history of a vacuum or forceps extraction, previous caesarean section, previous adverse perinatal outcome, low education, low socio-economic level, psychiatric problems, personality, lack of social support, and low self-esteem. What do the results of this study add? Prevalence of low, moderate, high, and severe FOC in Siriraj Hospital were 18.4%, 64.9%, 16.1%, and 0.7%, respectively. This was relatively lower than those reported from Western countries. Mean FOC score was significantly higher in women with unplanned than planned pregnancy. High to severe FOC was significantly related to low financial and family support and less understandings on delivery process. Differences in the results might be partly due to the differences in study population characteristics of Thais, including ethnics, religions, beliefs, perceptions, social structures, and social norms. What are the implications of these findings for clinical practice and/or further research? Future researches are suggested to explore and understand more about social and cultural factors associated with FOC. Identification of women with high or severe degree of FOC could help in preparing the women at risk before or during pregnancy to lessen FOC in order to improve their childbirth experiences. In addition, effective interventions to reduce FOC should be developed, evaluated, and implemented in the future.

Daniel Schneider

Silvio Fernando López Mera

Desde el 2004 se vienen desarrollando en Medellín dos estudios con los cuales se pueden sustentar políticas tendientes a mejorar la cobertura, calidad y pertinencia del sistema educativo de la ciudad. El primero es el estudio de expectativas en educación superior de los estudiantes de 11º y el segundo corresponde al seguimiento a bachilleres de colegios públicos del municipio. Infortunadamente ambos estudios no han tenido la ventana suficiente para constituirse como modelos a seguir o estudiar, y por tanto, sus hallazgos no han sido pertinentemente empleados en el diseño de políticas educativas. La exposición que se realiza en este documento a manera de análisis exploratorio y descriptivo de la información de ambos instrumentos tiene como objetivo mostrar este insumo importante para la política educativa. Los hallazgos permiten recomendar la cofinanciación de estudios superiores, fortalecer los sistemas de orientación vocacional en los colegios e implementar unidades de seguimiento a los bachilleres.

Filip Van Roosbroeck

It is often suggested that early modern Amsterdam was a thirsty city, in dire anticipation of the technological solutions that would finally provide it with the necessary quantities of potable water in the nineteenth century. However, a piped water system would have been technologically possible even a century before it was finally implemented, and in 1748 was even explicitly considered, but rejected as too inflexible and too vulnerable to sabotage. I consider this decision in its context, and show that while Amsterdam’s system of provisioning changed throughout the early modern era, it was nonetheless able to meet the requirements of the city’s population and its government.

Orlando Delgado Selley, Saúl Escobar Toledo, José Valenzuela Feijóo

S. Hassim

Abstract South Africa has taken centre stage in most accounts of the synergistic potential of law and politics: it is seen to be a case which demonstrates that human rights can be made real, with the favourable combination of institutional and political conditions. Among these conditions, from a feminist perspective, are the inclusion of equality and socio-economic rights in the Constitution, high levels of representation of women in parliament and the bureaucracy, and a strong and free civil society. The country is often invoked, in comparative social science, as an example of a democratic and relatively peaceful transition from authoritarianism, in which the breakdown of institutions was avoided; rather, it is seen as an example of successful institutional redirection from supporting an authoritarian state to advancing a democratic project. However, the Constitution is coming under increasing attack. It is not only conservative forces that seek to undermine rights in the name of culture, or wealthy elites concerned about defending their rights to property through rule of law and opposing high taxation, that are critical. It is also challenged by radical voices that aim at creating a society free of oppression. For the latter actors, the Constitution is less a tool of change and more an example of coloniality, or the imposition of a Western discourse on Africa. These arguments about decolonising political projects require more careful engagement, as the project of decoloniality is one that is in many respects allied to the project of feminism, whose own history required the disabling of the invisibilised male norm on which much legal and political theory was founded. This paper addresses the decolonial critique by showing the radical roots of the equality clause in a century-long history of struggles by black women.

S. Thi, D. Parker, Lei Lei Swe et al.

Josep García

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effects of stock recommendations in returns and trading volumes. Unlike previous research we have investigated the five most usual types of recommendations: buy, outperform, hold, underperform and sell. The methodology we propose is also different from previous studies. From our results we conclude that positive (negative) abnormal returns are associated to positive (negative and neutral) recommendations, the day of publication of the recommendation and the day before, but not the day after publication. We also document an asymmetry in the effect of recommendation on the stock trading volume, following the sign of the recommendation.

Amanda Chisholm

This article contributes to the existing critical theory and gender scholarship on private military security companies by examining how the gendered subjectivities of third-country nationals (TCNs) are constituted through the intersections of colonial histories and neoliberal economic practices. Focusing on Gurkha contractors, I ask how it is that both the remuneration and the working conditions of TCNs are inferior to those of their white Western peers within the industry. The article shows that Gurkhas’ working conditions flow from their location on the periphery of global employment markets, a disadvantage that is further inflected by their status as racially underdeveloped subjects. Thus, their material and cultural status within the industry – regardless of the abilities of the individuals in question – is argued to be the outcome of tenacious colonial histories that continue to shape the labour-market opportunities of men from the global South within larger global security governance practices that increasingly feature outsourcing of military labour in operations.

Peter Temin

Tadashi Ito

This paper examines the evolution of the variety of Mexico’s export goods using disaggregated trade data. Both the econometric estima- tion analyses using the raw data and the one using an improved version of Feenstra and Kee’s (2004, 2007) methodology proposed in this pa- per show that NAFTA membership does not enhance the variety of Mexico’s export goods. This finding contrasts with NAFTA’s positive association with the increase in export variety found in the literature.

R. Felner, Melissa L. DeVries

J. Snodgrass

Alan Bromhead, Barry Eichengreen, Barry Eichengreen et al.

Karin Lurvink