Hasil untuk "Economic growth, development, planning"

Yukako Inamura, Pankaj Kumar, Naoko Hirayama

Although water is a vital finite resource for sustaining life, it is under constant pressure from anthropogenic activities. Among the different types of surface water, lakes are particularly difficult to restore once water quality deteriorates due to their hydrological cycles and complex dynamics. This study compares policy implementation and its relationship to water quality improvement through spatio-temporal variation for two lakes in Japan: Lake Biwa and Lake Teganuma. We divided the analysis time frame into three periods to assess how the timing of policy implementation has affected the water quality and ecosystem services. Lake Biwa is an iconic and vital water resource in the region, and its conservation has been led by citizens and strong leadership from the governor since the 1960s. On the other hand, efforts to conserve the environment of Lake Teganuma began in the 1970s, and legislation played an important role in initiating and implementing the governance framework. The comparison of these two cases shows that while the efforts of subnational government and citizen are as powerful as legislation in protecting the lake environment, special legislation can guide subnational governments in establishing the necessary governance framework that fits local conditions and goals. Achieving regional sustainability in a human-environment system requires policy planning that goes beyond silo thinking, and this study clearly shows that cooperation between multilevel governments and relevant stakeholders, including citizens, is essential. The findings provide policy-relevant practical lessons in the quest for sustainable lake management.

Ifeanyi John Obikwelu

The article examines the relationship between ethnic segregation and development in Nigeria. It analyses the social, economic, and political implications. Nigeria’s historical legacies and diverse ethnic backgrounds have formed distinct ethnocultural communities, resulting in violence, conflict, social fragmentation, and developmental setbacks. Understanding the dynamics of ethnic segregation and its impact on development is vital for effective policies and interventions. The article utilises a mixed approach to explore different dimensions of ethnic segregation in Nigeria. The theoretical framework incorporates concepts from ethnic deprivation theory. The study examines patterns and drivers of ethnic segregation, i.e., economic disparities, social exclusion and political marginalisation across ethnic groups. It also investigates historical, social, economic, and political factors perpetuating these segregation patterns. The findings highlight the social consequences of ethnic segregation, including decreased social cohesion, increased intergroup tensions, and limited interaction; negative effects on economic developments, such as reduced investments, favouritism, hindered trade relations, and uneven resource distribution; and political ramifications, including unequal representation, electoral manipulations, power struggles, political instability, and governance challenges. To address ethnic segregation and promote development in Nigeria, the article proposes several recommendations: promoting inter-ethnic dialogue, investing in inclusive education and cultural exchange programs for social cohesion, creating inclusive economic policies and job opportunities, ensuring equitable resource distribution, strengthening governance and the rule of law, supporting conflict resolution and peacebuilding initiatives, and enhancing data collection and monitoring of segregation dynamics. By understanding the relationship between ethnic segregation and development, policymakers and stakeholders can work towards creating inclusive and equitable societies in Nigeria.

Corey J. A. Bradshaw, Shana M. McDermott

Concerns about declining or ageing populations often centre on the fear that fewer people will translate to a weaker economy and lower living standards. But these fears are frequently based on oversimplified or misapplied interpretations of economic models, and appear to be driven more by political agendas rather than evidence. In reality, long-term prosperity depends more on how societies invest in education, skills, and technology, not just how many people they have. We examine national data at the global scale to test whether slower population growth or ageing populations are linked to worse economic or social outcomes. Using nine different indices of socio-economic performance (domestic comprehensive wealth, income equality, research and development expenditure, patent applications, human capital, corruption perception index, freedom, planetary pressure-adjusted Human Development Index, healthy life expectancy at birth), we find no evidence that they are. In fact, we find that countries with low or negative population growth perform better on average for all indicators, and that even within-country time series show that most older and slower-growing populations fare better on average. These findings challenge common assumptions and highlight the need to move beyond fear-based and politically motivated narratives toward a more informed understanding of what truly supports thriving societies.

Nikolay Gospodinov, Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Serena Ng

Variations in the low- and high-frequency components of temperature may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. Parametric and non-parametric estimates from three panels of data all find significant heterogeneity in the relative importance of the two components, but there is clear evidence in each panel of a common, slowly evolving low-frequency factor that is highly correlated with the low-frequency factor of economic activity. In regressions that quantify the output effects of the components, we find that one-way clustered standard errors often lead to size distortions, and that an additive fixed effect specification does not adequately control for common time effects. Using bootstrap inference to assess estimates from our preferred interactive fixed effect specification, we only find a marginally significant effect of the high-frequency component on growth in the U.S. panel. However, the effect of the low-frequency component is significant in the European and International panels, suggesting that the increase in the low-frequency temperature component over the post-1980 period is associated with a reduction in economic growth of approximately 1.3 percentage points. The findings are corroborated by time series estimation using data at the unit and national levels.

Nikolaos Kalyviotis, Christopher D. F. Rogers, Geoffrey J. D. Hewings

Transport infrastructure systems operate in, and are shaped by, the specific context in which they are expected to perform and contribute to the system-of-systems that support civilised life; they must strive to be sustainable and resilient. However, transport, one of the economic infrastructures, is viewed narrowly in political circles as a vehicle for economic prosperity: political focus falls on the economic pillar of sustainability. One perennial challenge concerns the inclusion of social and environmental value into such performance judgements. A deep understanding of system interdependencies is essential when comparing input output tables (a top down approach) with cost benefit analysis (CBA, a bottom up approach). CBA works best when there is adequate information to calculate a monetary value for all economic, social, and environmental outcomes, whereas input output tables are most effective when environmental and social value are kept distinct from economic value and where the beneficial economic impacts extend across multiple sectors (CBA is inadequate in this regard). This research uses the World Input Output Database and principal component analysis to develop a model to capture this complex accounting process.In recognising how past interdependencies inform future development, this study s model provides new insights into indirect economic value creation within infrastructure systems.

César A. Hidalgo, Viktor Stojkoski

We provide a mechanistic foundation for economic complexity methods. In our model, an economy's ability to produce an activity depends on the joint presence of required factors. We analytically derive the Economic Complexity Index for this model and show that it is a monotonic function of the probability an economy holds many factors, validating it as an agnostic measure of productive capabilities. We also show that this model explains differences in the shape of networks of related activities, such as the product space or research space. These findings solve long standing puzzles in the literature on economic complexity.

Wei He, Ruqing Zhao, Shu Gao

This study explores the impact of accessibility on property pricing and land economies by advanced spatial analysis techniques, focusing on Shanghai as a representative metropolis. Despite the impact of metro systems on residential property values, which has been frequently assessed, a research gap exists in understanding this phenomenon in Asian, particularly Chinese, urban contexts. Addressing this gap is crucial for shaping effective urban land use policy and improving the land economy rationally in China and similar settings facing urban challenges. To assess the impact of metro station accessibility on property prices in Shanghai, with extensive rail transit, and to deeply explore the overall impact of land value varieties driven by metro on urban development, we conducted a comprehensive analysis, with discussion about future aspirations for land planning and management along with landscape and facility design, and measures to improve land economy. The procedures involved creating neighborhood centroids to represent accessibility and using the Euclidean distance analysis to determine the shortest paths to metro stations. Our evaluation incorporated a hedonic pricing model, considering variables like neighborhood characteristics, housing attributes, and socio-economic factors. Advanced spatial analysis encompassing Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression and XGBoost analysis were employed to explore spatial effects, and Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) helped examine spatial patterns and address autocorrelation challenges. Results revealed a negative association between distance to metro station and property prices, indicating a non-linear and spatially clustered relationship and heterogeneous spatial pattern. We dissected the non-linear results in detail, which complemented the conclusion in existing research. This study provides valuable insights into the dynamic interplay between metro accessibility and housing market behaviors in a significant Asian urban context, offering targeted suggestions for urban planners and governors to decide on more reasonable land use planning and management strategies, along with landscape and infrastructure design, to promote not only the healthy growth of the real estate market but also the sustainable urban development in China and similar regions.

AMINE JAOUADI, ABDERRAHMANE MAARADJI

The Hybrid Model, powered by Information and Communication Technology (ICT) for future education, enriched with Generative Artificial Intelligence (GAI), stands today as an advanced educational learning model. It ingeniously combines the strengths of ICT and generative AI to reshape the educational experience. Numerous academic institutions and organizations are embracing this transformative approach, harmonizing traditional classroom methods with state-of-the-art technologies and AI-driven innovations. In this study, we present an in-depth exploration of this novel ICT-powered hybrid model boosted by generative AI, dissecting its intricate components. We endeavor to unravel the advantages it bestows upon both students and educators, attempting to answer the pivotal question: what added value does this hybrid model bring to education? We embark on a meticulous enumeration of the diverse challenges encountered along the path of implementing this modern model. Additionally, we underscore the critical considerations that stakeholders must consider when deploying this educational evolution effectively.

Léleng Kebalo, Stéphane Zouri

This study investigates the impact of uncertainty on income inequality in developing countries. Unlike prior studies, we analyse the role that the fiscal policy could play in the relationship. Using a sample of 66 developing countries over the period 2000–2020, we find at several levels of robustness that, uncertainty increases income inequality in developing countries, especially those with fiscal deficits and less fiscally disciplined. Additionally, we find that fiscal surpluses mitigate the negative effects of uncertainty on wealth distribution which in turn reduces income inequality. This result reveals the socio-economic stabilizing role that fiscal policy management could play during periods of uncertainty. Fiscal policy can maintain and enhance economic stability when countries face certain uncertainty.

Matthew P Hamilton, Caroline Gao, Jonathan Karnon et al.

Most health economic analyses are undertaken with the aid of computers. However, the research ethics of implementing health economic models as software (or computational health economic models (CHEMs)) are poorly understood. We propose that developers and funders of CHEMs should adhere to research ethics principles and pursue the goals of: (i) socially acceptable user requirements and design specifications; (ii) fit for purpose implementations; and (iii) socially beneficial post-release use. We further propose that a transparent (T), reusable (R) and updatable (U) CHEM is suggestive of a project team that has largely met these goals. We propose six criteria for assessing TRU CHEMs: (T1) software files are publicly available; (T2) developer contributions and judgments on appropriate use are easily identified; (R1) programming practices facilitate independent reuse of model components; (R2) licenses permit reuse and derivative works; (U1) maintenance infrastructure is in place; and (U2) releases are systematically retested and deprecated. Few existing CHEMs would meet all TRU criteria. Addressing these limitations will require the development of new and updated good practice guidelines and investments by governments and other research funders in enabling infrastructure and human capital.

Reetwika Basu, Eric Anderson, Chinmay Deval et al.

In an era where informed decision-making is paramount for sustainable development and effective resource management, the role of Earth observations (EO) in shaping economic landscapes cannot be overstated. EO, facilitated by satellites, sensors, and data analytics, is a cornerstone for evidence-based policymaking, risk mitigation, and resource allocation. SERVIR is a joint initiative of US Agency for International Development and NASA. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of relevant economic impact assessment (EIA) work, summarizes SERVIRs potential interests in EIA, and identifies how and where EIA could improve how SERVIR quantifies and communicates the impact of its services.

Yingchi Chu

Abstract This study presents a critical evaluation of China's New Urbanization Plan (NUP), a preliminary assessment of its implementation, and some policy recommendations. This study evaluates the NUP within the context of China's urbanization and its theoretical debates, arguing that the NUP harbors a hidden agenda of facilitating a transition in the regime of accumulation. The priority given to economic development imposes structural constraints on the attainment of human-centered urbanization. Furthermore, the NUP's goal to enhance interregional equality and national security is reminiscent of strategies adopted in the socialist era, although this time around these objectives are pursued by enhancing global connectivity rather than through autarky. Finally, this study provides an empirical assessment of the NUP's implementation by calculating data for six city clusters between 2013 and 2016, analyzing them according to regions and city sizes, and focusing on indicators identified from the Plan. It finds that although the pace of converting rural migrants meets the NUP target, the provision of urban social benefits remains frugal. The relocation of secondary industries to inland regions has not been accompanied by a commensurate shift of population growth. The NUP's implementation has also been accompanied by a sharp increase in land-sale revenue in 2018.

Yuxin Hu

This article presents an analysis of China's economic evolution amidst demographic changes from 1990 to 2050, offering valuable insights for academia and policymakers. It uniquely intertwines various economic theories with empirical data, examining the impact of an aging population, urbanization, and family dynamics on labor, demand, and productivity. The study's novelty lies in its integration of Classical, Neoclassical, and Endogenous Growth theories, alongside models like Barro and Sala-i-Martin, to contextualize China's economic trajectory. It provides a forward-looking perspective, utilizing econometric methods to predict future trends, and suggests practical policy implications. This comprehensive approach sheds light on managing demographic transitions in a global context, making it a significant contribution to the field of demographic economics.

Berhanu Keno Terfa, Nengcheng Chen, Dandan Liu et al.

Rapid urban growth in major cities of a country poses challenges for sustainable development. Particularly in Africa, the process of rapid urbanization is little understood and research is mostly limited to single cities. Thus, this study provides a comprehensive comparative analysis of the growth and spatial patterns of urban development in the three major cities of Ethiopia (Addis Ababa, Adama, and Hawassa) from 1987 to 2017. Also, the applicability of diffusion and coalescence theory on the evolution of these cities has been tested. Remote sensing and GIS technologies were combined with spatial metrics and morphological analysis was employed to undertake this study. The result revealed that all the studied cities experienced accelerated growth in the urbanized areas, but the cities with a larger initial urbanized size were associated with lower expansion rates. Differences in extent and direction of expansion in each city were mostly related to physical features, urban master plans, and policies, with an increase in the irregularity and dispersion of urban growth, representing strong evidence of urban sprawl. The spatiotemporal analysis confirmed that the urbanization processes of Addis Ababa and Adama were consistent and Hawassa city diverged from expectations based on diffusion and coalescence theory. In general, large cities with strong economic growth in a country fail to effectively control the scattered nature of urban growth, thus requiring aggressive policy intervention. The approach used in this study permits a deeper exploration of urban development patterns and the identification of priority areas for effective urban planning and management.

Pámer Zoltán

A 2007-2013 közötti programozási időszak a területalapú fejlesztéspolitika kialakítására tett kísérletként értelmezhető, melynek során – az ágazati programok mellett – minden magyarországi régió (így a Baranyát magában foglaló Dél-Dunántúl is) saját operatív programmal rendelkezett. 2014-2020 között ugyanakkor egyetlen országos, viszont különálló megyei keretekkel rendelkező Terület- és Településfejlesztési Operatív Program működött, melyet szintén kiegészítettek az ágazati programok. A tanulmány célja, hogy feltárja: kimutathatók-e tendenciák Baranyában a támogatási programok területi preferenciáiban, továbbá mely járások és települések tekinthetők centrumnak vagy perifériának az EU-források felhasználása terén a két programozási időszakban. A tanulmány első részében – a szakirodalmi bevezetést követően – áttekintem a két programozási időszak stratégiai kereteit, a Baranya megyében vizsgált programokat, illetve a megyére vonatkozó területi célokat. Ezt követően ismertetem az empirikus adatelemzés módszerét és a megfogalmazott kérdéseket, majd bemutatom a két időszak programjait külön-külön, továbbá összehasonlítom a két területfejlesztési célú programot. Kiemelem a két programozási időszakra jellemző területi tendenciákat, továbbá értékelem a forrásfelhasználást a 2014-ben kialakított megyei területi célok mentén. Az összefoglalásban a korábbi elemzések konklúziójaként meghatározom a megye járásainak kohéziós forrásfelhasználási profilját. A tanulmány fontos megállapítása, hogy a megyeszékhely, Pécs részesedése a forrásokból 50% alá süllyedt 2014-2020 között, mely a vidéki térségek előtérbe kerülésére utal. Azonban míg 2007-2013 időszakában mind az egyes járások között, mind a járásokon belül viszonylag egyenletes forrásmegoszlás tapasztalható, addig 2014-2020 között több járás (Bóly, Komló, Mohács) esetében is erőteljes koncentrációt látunk (ezek elsősorban helyi adottságokra épülő gazdaságfejlesztést megvalósító térségek), miközben a leszakadó térségeknek kevesebb támogatás jutott. A preferált járásokon belül is a központok koncentrálták a forrásokat. Mindez összességében növelte a megye elmaradott és fejlődő térségei közötti finanszírozási szakadékot. Az uniós fejlesztéspolitika központi térségekre és városokra történő koncentrálásával csökken annak láthatósága a vidéki térségekben, mely – utóbbi területeken – a hazai finanszírozású eszközök jelentőségének növekedésével jár.

Jelena Stankevičienė, Jelena Kabulova

It is a controversial question whether financial technology makes financial institutions vulnerable (instable). This research is based on the analysis of financial institutions from 37 countries. Authors use regulatory sandboxes that are introduced in countries as an external FinTech shock to examine the impact of financial technology on financial institution stability. Some observations can be drawn: 1) if market characteristics are not considered, then there is no effect on the financial institution vulnerability linked to the shock of FinTech innovation; 2) development of FinTech in developed countries can reduce (or increase) the vulnerability (instability) of financial markets; 3) FinTech impacts the vulnerability (instability) of financial institutions through the profitability. Nevertheless, these indicators do not consider the complex multidimensional essence of FinTech. This article summarises how FinTech and developed financial institutions and the financial sector are in terms of their depth, access, and efficiency. The article offers a valuable analytical means of developing FinTech impact on financial stability for researchers and policymakers.

Tamay Besiroglu, Nicholas Emery-Xu, Neil Thompson

Since its emergence around 2010, deep learning has rapidly become the most important technique in Artificial Intelligence (AI), producing an array of scientific firsts in areas as diverse as protein folding, drug discovery, integrated chip design, and weather prediction. As more scientists and engineers adopt deep learning, it is important to consider what effect widespread deployment would have on scientific progress and, ultimately, economic growth. We assess this impact by estimating the idea production function for AI in two computer vision tasks that are considered key test-beds for deep learning and show that AI idea production is notably more capital-intensive than traditional R&D. Because increasing the capital-intensity of R&D accelerates the investments that make scientists and engineers more productive, our work suggests that AI-augmented R&D has the potential to speed up technological change and economic growth.

W. Meng, Beibei Hu, M. He et al.

Matamyo Simwanda, Y. Murayama, M. Ranagalage

Curbing the historically unplanned urban development in African cities crucially demands that the drivers of urban land use (urban-LU) changes are comprehended. However, this has become a complex decision problem for African urban planners and policy makers owing to the interconnections among urban-LU drivers and the complicated mixed development of planned and unplanned areas. Therefore, this study presents a new framework to model drivers of urban-LU changes in Lusaka, Zambia for the last 50 years using ground questionnaire surveys and the analytic network process (ANP). The study considers the growth of six urban-LUs, namely, unplanned high density residential (UHDR), unplanned low density residential (ULDR); planned medium-high density residential (PMHDR), planned low density residential (PLDR), commercial and industrial (CMI); and public institutions and service (PIS). The results revealed that socio-economic (55.11 %) and population (27.37 %) factors have been the major drivers of urban-LU changes while political factors (13.07 %) have also played a role. The role of biophysical factors (4.44 %) has been insignificant. The ANP model ranks UHDR (1st) and CMI (2nd) areas as the fastest-growing primarily driven by interactions amongst migration, economic opportunities, social services and land market. The growth of PMHDR, PIS and PLDR areas, ranked 3rd, 4th and 5th, respectively, has been largely driven by plans and policies and the political situation. The growth of ULDR areas is ranked (6th) as the lowest. The study discusses the urban planning and land use policy implications and suggests several strategies including strengthening of the local planning authority; improvement of the land tenure policies and delivery systems; establishment of satellite economic zones to decongest the city; investment in both green and blue infrastructure; and timely policy reviews.

Chaochao Gao, Haoqing Ge

Abstract China’s Five-Year Strategic Plan for National Economic and Social Development (FYP) sets up development goals, main tasks, and policy measures to regulate or facilitate the development of the relevant industries for the next five-year, and therefore play a critical role in achieving the national goal of carbon dioxide emission control. This study analyzes China’s energy-related carbon dioxide emissions in the economic sectors and their driving forces among three full cycles of the 10th, 11th and 12th FYPs, by applying the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index method. Our results show that the total emissions began to drop in 2014 and 2015 after a continuous increase from 2001 to 2013, making emission growth during the 12th FYP less than half of the previous two periods. Energy efficiency has been the main player in limiting the emission growth associated with economic activities. The emission mitigation effect of energy structure change became noticeable during the 12th FYP while that from the economic structure change is still marginal, suggesting structure decarbonization as the focal point of future plan design and implementation. We found strong diversities in the emission scale and growth patterns among the 30 provinces (except Tibet, Taiwan, Hong Kong and Macao where no data are available), and a significant switch from high emission growth mode to low emission growth mode in a number of eastern and central provinces. The latter suggesting that the measures taken during the 11–12th FYPs to control emission growth have been effective. Results from this study sheds light on how future FYP may shape low-carbon strategies in China, which may also benefit other emerging economies, especially the “Road and Belt Plan” related regions.