Hasil untuk "Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand"

Jenny X. Liu, Y. Goryakin, A. Maeda et al.

BackgroundIn low- and middle-income countries, scaling essential health interventions to achieve health development targets is constrained by the lack of skilled health professionals to deliver services.MethodsWe take a labor market approach to project future health workforce demand based on an economic model based on projected economic growth, demographics, and health coverage, and using health workforce data (1990–2013) for 165 countries from the WHO Global Health Observatory. The demand projections are compared with the projected growth in health worker supply and the health worker “needs” as estimated by WHO to achieve essential health coverage.ResultsThe model predicts that, by 2030, global demand for health workers will rise to 80 million workers, double the current (2013) stock of health workers, while the supply of health workers is expected to reach 65 million over the same period, resulting in a worldwide net shortage of 15 million health workers. Growth in the demand for health workers will be highest among upper middle-income countries, driven by economic and population growth and aging. This results in the largest predicted shortages which may fuel global competition for skilled health workers. Middle-income countries will face workforce shortages because their demand will exceed supply. By contrast, low-income countries will face low growth in both demand and supply, which are estimated to be far below what will be needed to achieve adequate coverage of essential health services.ConclusionsIn many low-income countries, demand may stay below projected supply, leading to the paradoxical phenomenon of unemployed (“surplus”) health workers in those countries facing acute “needs-based” shortages. Opportunities exist to bend the trajectory of the number and types of health workers that are available to meet public health goals and the growing demand for health workers.

Ucla M. KEITH CHEN

Christian Kagerl

Abstract This article describes newly available data on the German short-time work scheme Kurzarbeit. In the course of administering short-time work, the Federal Employment Agency has begun to collect data on its usage. From this process, two distinct data sets emerge: one at the establishment level and one at the individual level. The article explains how both data sets are generated from the administration of Kurzarbeit, details the information they contain and provides illustrative applications. It also discusses the respective potentials and limitations of these data sets for research. JEL classification E24, H25, J08, J65, J68

Paola Azar, Alina Machado

Abstract Based on a novel dataset, we examine the gender gaps in the career opportunities of university graduates in accountancy, administration and economics in Uruguay. We find no significant gender differences in graduation marks, time to degree or the likelihood of attaining upper-level job positions shortly after graduation. However, the gaps emerge 7 years after graduation. We show that women are 10% points less likely than men to advance in the job ranking. Additionally, their probability of working full-time is 17% points lower. These chances are reduced even further when children are present. From the supply side, soon after degree women express a stronger preference than men for job stability and free time outside work. Our findings point to a “glass ceiling effect” that persists even within a specific and highly-rewarded skill group and a gender-balanced field of study in the country.

David Autor, B. N. Kausik

A central socioeconomic concern about Artificial Intelligence is that it will lower wages by depressing the labor share - the fraction of economic output paid to labor. We show that declining labor share is more likely to raise wages. In a competitive economy with constant returns to scale, we prove that the wage-maximizing labor share depends only on the capital-to-labor ratio, implying a non-monotonic relationship between labor share and wages. When labor share exceeds this wage-maximizing level, further automation increases wages even while reducing labor's output share. Using data from the United States and eleven other industrialized countries, we estimate that labor share is too high in all twelve, implying that further automation should raise wages. Moreover, we find that falling labor share accounted for 16\% of U.S. real wage growth between 1954 and 2019. These wage gains notwithstanding, automation-driven shifts in labor share are likely to pose significant social and political challenges.

Ziyi Wang, Congrong Zhang, Jingying Deng et al.

Homework tutoring work is a demanding and often conflict-prone practice in family life, and parents often lack targeted support for managing its cognitive and emotional burdens. Through interviews with 18 parents of children in grades 1-3, we examine how homework-related labor is divided and coordinated between parents, and where AI might meaningfully intervene. We found three key insights: (1) Homework labor encompasses distinct dimensions: physical, cognitive, and emotional, with the latter two often remaining invisible. (2) We identified father-mother-child triadic dynamics in labor division, with children's feedback as the primary factor shaping parental labor adjustments. (3) Building on prior HCI research, we propose an AI design that prioritizes relationship maintenance over task automation or broad labor mitigation. By employing labor as a lens that integrates care work, we explore the complexities of labor within family contexts, contributing to feminist and care-oriented HCI and to the development of context-sensitive coparenting practices.

Min Zhang

Abstract In this paper, we examine whether digital finance affects employment quality of migrant workers in China. Based on a nationwide micro data, our empirical results show that migrant workers do benefit from digital finance at the aspect of employment quality. Migrant workers in cities with higher level of digital finance have a higher level of employment quality. The results are robust to a number of variations in our empirical models. Moreover, the positive effect of digital finance on employment quality of migrant workers is stronger for younger, female, and new generation migrant workers, and for migrant workers with lower employment quality and those working in the eastern region. The results of this article are of great significance for clarifying the relationship between digital finance and the employment quality of migrant workers, improving policies and measures related to the floating population, and promoting high-quality economic development.

Les auteurs examinent la capacité des syndicats et de la négociation collective d’entreprise à améliorer les conditions de travail dans les usines de confection approvisionnant les marques et distributeurs multinationaux. Ils montrent, à partir de données recueillies par le programme Better Work au Bangladesh, au Cambodge, à Haïti, en Indonésie, en Jordanie, au Nicaragua et au Viet Nam, que leur rôle peut être positif, même dans les pays qui restreignent la liberté syndicale et la négociation collective. Ils confirment ainsi en partie que l’implication des institutions et acteurs locaux permet d’améliorer le respect des normes du travail du côté production des chaînes d’approvisionnement mondiales.

Mengfei Gao, Rui Pan, Yueqing Ji

Given the significant shifts in rural labor mobility patterns and their continuous influence on the transformation of the land factor market, it is crucial to understand the relationship between labor factor prices and land factor prices. This understanding is essential to keep land factor prices within a reasonable range. This study establishes a theoretical framework to investigate how migrant workers’ return shapes land price formation mechanisms. Using 2023 micro-level survey data from eight counties in Jiangsu Province, China, this study empirically examines how migrant workers’ return affects land transfer prices and its underlying mechanisms through OLS regression and instrumental variable approaches. The findings show that under the current pattern of labor mobility, the outflow factor alone is no longer sufficient to exert substantial downward pressure on land transfer prices. Instead, the localized return of labor has emerged as a key driver behind the rise in land transfer prices. This upward mechanism is primarily realized through the following pathways. First, factor substitution effect: this effect lowers labor prices and increases the relative marginal output value of land factors. Second, supply–demand effect: migrant workers’ return simultaneously increases land demand and reduces supply, intensifying market shortages and driving up transfer prices. Lastly, the results demonstrate that enhancing the stability of land tenure security or increasing local non-agricultural employment opportunities can mitigate the effect of rising land transfer prices caused by the migrant workers’ return. According to the study’s findings, stabilizing land factor prices depends on full non-agricultural employment for migrant workers. This underscores the significance of policies that encourage employment for returning rural labor.

Antti J. Tanskanen

A life cycle model of consumption and labor supply describes employment decisions of a collection of individuals during their lifetime. We develop a life cycle model describing a heterogeneous population operating in Finland under a wide variety of employment states and life situations. A rich life cycle model requires a large state space representing the possible states of simulated agents. The results demonstrate that the model reproduces a number of statistics of the Finnish employment market such as the age structures of employment rate and unemployment rate, distributions of observed effective marginal tax rates and participating tax rates, and proportion of part time work. As an application of analysis of a reform, we analyze how the program of Orpo government influences employment and public finances in Finland.

Adam Nelson-Archer, Aleia Sen, Meena Al Hasani et al.

We present a deep learning approach for forecasting short-term employment changes and assessing long-term industry health using labor market data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. Our system leverages a Long- and Short-Term Time-series Network (LSTNet) to process multivariate time series data, including employment levels, wages, turnover rates, and job openings. The model outputs both 7-day employment forecasts and an interpretable Industry Employment Health Index (IEHI). Our approach outperforms baseline models across most sectors, particularly in stable industries, and demonstrates strong alignment between IEHI rankings and actual employment volatility. We discuss error patterns, sector-specific performance, and future directions for improving interpretability and generalization.

Liudmyla Akimova, Gаlina Urchik

The article presents a comprehensive study of the peculiarities of the functioning of the Ukrainian labour market in the context of modern challenges. The objective is to identify existing problems and transform the state policy in the labour market. The study was conducted based on data from the State Employment Service, the online job search portal Work.ua, and various sociological surveys of labour market participants and experts. The results of the analysis demonstrate that the Ukrainian labour market has undergone significant transformations during the war compared to peacetime. These include: 1) A notable decrease in the number of registered unemployed individuals. 2) A reduction in the proportion of unemployed individuals receiving unemployment benefits. 3) A sharp decline in the number of vacant jobs and employers informing the State Employment Service (SES) about available vacancies. 4) A high burden on vacant jobs. It can be posited that there was a considerable surplus of labour and considerable tension in the registered labour market during the war. According to the online job search resource Work.ua, the following trends have been identified in the general labour market of Ukraine: ) A «shock» state of the general labour market in 2022, with a gradual stabilisation in 2023. 2) The professional structure of labour demand in the most popular occupations did not change significantly during the war. The most popular occupations in the labour market are sales managers and sales consultants, accountants, and drivers. 3) A decrease in labour demand during the war occurred in several occupations, but the most significant decrease in labour demand occurred in the IT sector. In the majority of western regions, the ratio between professions with an increase or decrease in the number of vacancies favoured the former. In contrast, in the vast majority of eastern and central regions of Ukraine, the balance of changes in the number of vacancies is negative. Furthermore, in the face of threats to life and health, there is an increase in the supply of remote work. It can be stated that the main problems faced by employers when hiring employees are a lack of candidates for positions and an insufficiently qualified applicant pool. In this paper, we prove that the main problems of job seekers in the current conditions are unsatisfactory remuneration, a reduction in the scope of labour application, and age discrimination in the labour market. According to a survey of experts

Jia Li, Jinming Shi, Ruihan Cao et al.

IntroductionExport quality improvement is a crucial path for a country or region to climb up the advanced division of labor in the global value chain. For developing countries that have long been at the lower end of the global value chain division of labor, the dominance of agricultural trade is often controlled by international retailers, leading to higher costs of agricultural trade and hindering the upgrading of the quality of agricultural exports. As a traditional agricultural exporting country, China still needs a competitive advantage despite the large scale of its agricultural exports. Currently, e-commerce can provide buyers and sellers with comprehensive transaction information and technical support, allowing them to realize rational allocation of resources and export upgrading. Therefore, studying how e-commerce can promote the quality upgrade of agricultural exports is crucial for China to build a trade power.MethodsThis paper clarifies the mechanism of e-commerce’s theoretical impact on the quality of agricultural exports and then empirically tests it using a high-dimensional fixed-effects model with Chinese customs data from 2000 to 2020 as a sample.ResultsThe results show that e-commerce significantly promotes the quality of agricultural exports in all regions of China, and this conclusion still holds after various robustness tests; the heterogeneity test shows that e-commerce fosters the quality of agricultural exports in eastern China, densely populated regions, and economically underdeveloped regions, especially in the case of heterogeneous products; the mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce promotes the quality of agricultural exports mainly through the optimization of the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, and the enhancement of the level of servicing. Mechanism analysis confirms that e-commerce improves agricultural export quality mainly through optimizing the agricultural industry chain and supply chain, improving the level of servitization, and docking the demand information of the consumer market, etc. Expanded analysis shows that constructing cross-border e-commerce platforms also significantly improves the quality of micro enterprises’ agricultural exports. This paper enriches the research on e-commerce and agricultural trade.DiscussionThis paper provides an essential reference for constructing a robust agricultural trade country and developing high-quality agriculture. Despite encompassing data up to 2020, in the context of today’s global economic volatility directly affecting agricultural trade, future investigations will broaden the scope to delve deeper into how e-commerce can help countries cope with global economic uncertainty.

Scott Delhommer, Domonkos F. Vamossy

This paper presents quasi-experimental research examining the effect of both local and state anti-discrimination laws on sexual orientation on the labor supply and wages of lesbian, gay, and bisexual (LGB) workers. To do so, we use the American Community Survey data on household composition to infer sexual orientation and combine this with a unique panel dataset on state and local anti-discrimination laws. Leveraging variation in law implementation across localities over time and between same-sex and different-sex couples, we find that anti-discrimination laws significantly narrow gaps in labor force participation and employment for men in same-sex couples relative to men in different-sex couples, and also increase their percentile rank in the wage distribution. Our analysis reveals mostly null effects for female same-sex couples; however, in metropolitan areas these laws significantly reduce their employment compared to women in different-sex couples. One explanation for the reduced labor supply is that female same-sex couples begin to have more children in response to the laws. Finally, we present evidence that state anti-discrimination laws significantly and persistently increased support for same-sex marriage. This research shows that anti-discrimination laws can be an effective policy tool for reducing labor market inequalities across sexual orientation and improving sentiment toward LGB Americans.

Olinda Evangelista

O texto originou-se de exposição por mim realizada por ocasião do lançamento da Revista Trabalho Necessário, número 42, de 2022, organizada por Rodrigo Lamosa e Marco Lamarão, cujo tema é O empresariamento da educação e o Estado-educador. Refere-se ao processo metarreflexivo sobre as análises apresentadas no volume pelos vários autores, tendo em vista assinalar as tendências e contribuições acerca do tema, ressalvadas as divergências teóricas. É comum às abordagens a defesa inconteste da escola pública em todas as suas formas, e a análise das estratégias da burguesia para a formação da juventude trabalhadora. São tratados os Aparelhos Privados de Hegemonia; as organizações multilaterais; os aparelhos de Estado; as TICs. No que toca diretamente ao assunto do dossiê, os autores discutiram empresariamento, privatização, mercantilização, mercadorização, financeirização, comoditização, relação público-privado, filantropização, capitalização, flexibilização e comercialização, evidenciando-se que são muitas as formas de refletir sobre a presença do capital na determinação das políticas educacionais no Brasil. Palavras-chave: Educação pública; Política Educacional; Educação e Trabalho. Palavras-chave: Educação pública; Política Educacional; Educação e Trabalho.

Lan Chen, Xi Chen, Shiyu Wu et al.

As a phenomenal large language model, ChatGPT has achieved unparalleled success in various real-world tasks and increasingly plays an important role in our daily lives and work. However, extensive concerns are also raised about the potential ethical issues, especially about whether ChatGPT-like artificial general intelligence (AGI) will replace human jobs. To this end, in this paper, we introduce a preliminary data-driven study on the future of ChatGPT-enabled labor market from the view of Human-AI Symbiosis instead of Human-AI Confrontation. To be specific, we first conduct an in-depth analysis of large-scale job posting data in BOSS Zhipin, the largest online recruitment platform in China. The results indicate that about 28% of occupations in the current labor market require ChatGPT-related skills. Furthermore, based on a large-scale occupation-centered knowledge graph, we develop a semantic information enhanced collaborative filtering algorithm to predict the future occupation-skill relations in the labor market. As a result, we find that additional 45% occupations in the future will require ChatGPT-related skills. In particular, industries related to technology, products, and operations are expected to have higher proficiency requirements for ChatGPT-related skills, while the manufacturing, services, education, and health science related industries will have lower requirements for ChatGPT-related skills.

Hugo Sant'Anna, Samyam Shrestha

We use administrative panel data on the universe of Brazilian formal workers to investigate the labor market effects of the Venezuelan crisis in Brazil, focusing on the border state of Roraima. The results using difference-in-differences show that the monthly wages of Brazilians in Roraima increased by around 2 percent, which was mostly driven by those working in sectors and occupations with no refugee involvement. The study finds negligible job displacement for Brazilians but finds evidence of native workers moving to occupations without immigrants. We also find that immigrants in the informal market offset the substitution effects in the formal market.

Saadet Yagmur Kumcu

In this study, the evolutionary development of labor has been tried to be revealed based on theoretical analysis. Using the example of gdp, which is an indicator of social welfare, the economic value of the labor of housewives was tried to be measured with an empirical modeling. To this end; first of all, the concept of labor was questioned in orthodox (mainstream) economic theories; then, by abstracting from the labor-employment relationship, it was examined what effect the labor of unpaid housewives who are unemployed in the capitalist system could have on gdp. In theoretical analysis; It has been determined that the changing human profile moves away from rationality and creates limited rationality and, accordingly, a heterogeneous individual profile. Women were defined as the new example of heterogeneous individuals, as those who best fit the definition of limited rational individuals because they prefer to be housewives. In the empirical analysis of the study, housewife labor was taken into account as the main variable. In the empirical analysis of the study; In the case of Turkiye, using turkstat employment data and the atkinson inequality scale; the impact of housewife labor on gdp was calculated. The results of the theoretical and empirical analysis were evaluated in the context of labor-employment independence.

Isabel Munoz, Pyeonghwa Kim, Clea O'Neil et al.

We contribute empirical and conceptual insights regarding the roles of digital labor platforms in online freelancing, focusing attention to social identities such as gender, race, ethnicity, and occupation. Findings highlight how digital labor platforms reinforce and exacerbate identity-based stereotypes, bias and expectations in online freelance work. We focus on online freelancing as this form of working arrangement is becoming more prevalent. Online freelancing also relies on the market-making power of digital platforms to create an online labor market. Many see this as one likely future of work with less bias. Others worry that labor platforms' market power allows them to embed known biases into new working arrangements: a platformization of inequality. Drawing on data from 108 online freelancers, we discuss six findings: 1) female freelance work is undervalued; 2) gendered occupational expectations; 3) gendered treatment; 4) shared expectations of differential values; 5) racial stereotypes and expectations; and 6) race and ethnicity as an asset. We discuss the role of design in the platformization and visibility of social identity dimensions and the implications of the reinforced identity perceptions and marginalization in digital labor platforms.

Suryadeepto Nag

Using a panel of 1,171 villages in rural India that were surveyed in the India Human Development Surveys, I perform a difference-in-differences analysis to find that improvements in electricity reliability have a negative effect on the increase in casual agricultural labor wage rates. Changes in men's wage rates are found to be affected more adversely than women's, resulting in a smaller widening of the gender wage gap. I find that better electricity reliability reduces the time spent by women in fuel collection substantially which could potentially increase labor supply. The demand for labor remains unaffected by reliability, which could lead the surplus in labor supply to cause wage rates to stunt. However, I show that electrical appliances such as groundwater pumps considerably increase labor demand indicating that governments could target increasing the adoption of electric pumps along with bettering the quality of electricity to absorb the surplus labor into agriculture.