Many models of population dynamics are formulated as deterministic iterated maps although real populations are stochastic. This is justifiable in the limit of large population sizes, as the stochastic fluctuations are negligible then. However, this also makes it challenging to use the same models for small populations where finite size effects like demographic noise and extinction cannot be ignored. Moreover, adding noise to the equations does not solve this problem as it can only represent the environmental stochasticity. An approach, sometimes used in ecological literature, but surprisingly uncommon in dynamical systems community, is \emph{Binomial maps}, which allow stochastic evolution of deterministic iterated map models of population. Here we present their formulation in a way so as to make their connection to the agent-based models explicit, and demonstrate it for the Logistic and Ricker maps. We also show that the Binomial maps are not completely equivalent to their deterministic counterparts, and derive sufficient conditions under which the equivalence holds. This approach enables rigorous finite-population analysis within familiar map-based models, bridging the deterministic map models and stochastic agent-based models.
Mark Hofstadter, Ravit Helled, David J. Stevenson
et al.
Determining the internal structure of Uranus is a key objective for planetary science. Knowledge of Uranus's bulk composition and the distribution of elements is crucial to understanding its origin and evolutionary path. In addition, Uranus represents a poorly understood class of intermediate-mass planets (intermediate in size between the relatively well studied terrestrial and gas giant planets), which appear to be very common in the Galaxy. As a result, a better characterization of Uranus will also help us to better understand exoplanets in this mass and size regime. Recognizing the importance of Uranus, a Keck Institute for Space Studies (KISS) workshop was held in September 2023 to investigate how we can improve our knowledge of Uranus's internal structure in the context of a future Uranus mission that includes an orbiter and a probe. The scientific goals and objectives of the recently released Planetary Science and Astrobiology Decadal Survey were taken as our starting point. We reviewed our current knowledge of Uranus's interior and identified measurement and other mission requirements for a future Uranus spacecraft, providing more detail than was possible in the Decadal Survey's mission study and including new insights into the measurements to be made. We also identified important knowledge gaps to be closed with Earth-based efforts in the near term that will help guide the design of the mission and interpret the data returned.
In this paper, we study CR maps between hyperquadrics and Winkelmann hypersurfaces. Based on a previous study on the CR Ahlfors derivative of Lamel-Son and a recent result of Huang-Lu-Tang-Xiao on CR maps between hyperquadrics, we prove that a transversal CR map from a hyperquadric into a hyperquadric or a Winkelmann hypersurface extends to a local holomorphic isometric embedding with respect to certain Kähler metrics if and only if the Hermitian part of its CR Ahlfors derivative vanishes on an open set of the source. Our proof is based on relating the geometric rank of a CR map into a hyperquadric and its CR Ahlfors derivative.
Sergio Moreschini, Shahrzad Pour, Ivan Lanese
et al.
The use of AI in microservices (MSs) is an emerging field as indicated by a substantial number of surveys. However these surveys focus on a specific problem using specific AI techniques, therefore not fully capturing the growth of research and the rise and disappearance of trends. In our systematic mapping study, we take an exhaustive approach to reveal all possible connections between the use of AI techniques for improving any quality attribute (QA) of MSs during the DevOps phases. Our results include 16 research themes that connect to the intersection of particular QAs, AI domains and DevOps phases. Moreover by mapping identified future research challenges and relevant industry domains, we can show that many studies aim to deliver prototypes to be automated at a later stage, aiming at providing exploitable products in a number of key industry domains.
ABSTRAK Laut China Selatan (LCS) mencakupi ruang wilayah daratan serta kelautan beberapa negara pesisir di Asia Tenggara seperti Malaysia, Vietnam, Filipina dan Brunei. Berdasarkan susur masa era tradisional hingga moden, istilah LCS ini secara rasmi digunakan sebelum tempoh Perang Dunia Kedua (PDII). Sebelumnya, LCS yang dikenali pada era moden menggunakan istilah pelbagai merujuk kepada sumber sejarah Barat, China dan Tempatan. Kedinamikan ini merupakan satu elemen yang penting untuk menerangkan sejarah LCS secara komprehensif dan tidak terikat dengan satu perspektif atau sumber sahaja. Antara objektif yang ingin dicapai melalui makalah ini adalah, menjelaskan tentang penggunaan istilah atau toponim LCS berdasarkan sumber Barat, China dan Tempatan. Kedua, menganalisa faktor dan hujah tertentu penggunaan istilah LCS sebagai pencerahan terhadap sejarah LCS dan hubung kaitnya dengan kuasa tradisional China dan Barat. Kajian ini disempurnakan dengan menggunakan kaedah kualitatif iaitu mengumpul dan menganalisis sumber primer serta sekunder melalui peta-peta awal dan laporan. Kajian mendapati bahawa, pelayaran dan perdagangan secara langsung dan tidak langsung telah mempengaruhi penggunaan istilah LCS berdasarkan sumber sejarah yang pelbagai. Walau bagaimanapun, istilah ini tidak mempunyai hubung kait dengan isu ‘pemilikan’ kuasa-kuasa tertentu di rantau Asia. Kajian lanjut berdasarkan manuskrip tradisional dari sumber Tempatan, Arab, China dan Barat perlu diperluaskan dan diseimbangkan dengan sumber asing yang lain seperti Taiwan dan Jepun bagi memperkaya kefahaman mengenai istilah atau toponim LCS. ABSTRACT The South China Sea (SCS) covers the land and sea area of several coastal countries in Southeast Asia such as Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Brunei. Based on the timeline of the traditional to the modern era, the term SCS was officially used before the Second World War (WWII) period. Previously, the SCS known in the modern era used various terms referring to Western, Chinese and Local historical sources. This dynamism is an important element in explaining the history of SCS comprehensively and not bound to one perspective or source only. Among the objectives to be achieved through this paper is to explain the use of SCS terms or toponyms based on Western, Chinese, and Local sources. Second, analyze the specific factors and arguments for the use of the term SCS as an enlightenment on the history of SCS and its connection with the traditional power of China and the West. This study was completed by using a qualitative method that is to collect and analyze primary and secondary sources through preliminary maps and reports. The study found that navigation and trade, directly and indirectly, influenced the use of the term SCS based on diverse historical sources. However, this term has no connection with the issue of 'ownership' of certain powers in the Asian region. Further studies based on traditional manuscripts from Local, Arabic, Chinese, and Western sources need to be expanded and balanced with other foreign sources such as Taiwan and Japan to enrich the understanding of SCS terms or toponyms.
Simple Summary Harmful cyanobacterial blooms (cyanoHABs) have been reported globally, threatening human and animal health. They are encouraged by the warming climate and agricultural pollution creating nutrient-rich, warm environments, ideal for cyanobacterial proliferation. The cyanotoxins produced by these blooms have caused poisonings in many wildlife species; however, these cases are severely underreported, and many are likely missed. The aim of this systematic map was to collate, organise, and characterise all existing reports of cyanotoxin poisonings in terrestrial wildlife. We conducted a search of the published literature using online databases, yielding a total of 45 cases detailing incidents involving terrestrial wildlife. There is no current standard method for the reporting and diagnosis of cyanotoxin intoxication cases, and we provide recommendations on this to include both clinical diagnostic tools and investigative chemistry techniques. Less than half of all cases employed robust methods of detection and diagnosis based on our recommendations. Most cases were investigated after poisonings had already occurred, and only nine reports mentioned any effort to mitigate the effects of harmful cyanobacteria on terrestrial wildlife. This systematic map details terrestrial wildlife cyanotoxin intoxications from a diagnostic perspective, identifying how reporting can be improved, leading to more successful mitigation and investigative efforts in the future. Abstract Global warming and over-enrichment of freshwater systems have led to an increase in harmful cyanobacterial blooms (cyanoHABs), affecting human and animal health. The aim of this systematic map was to detail the current literature surrounding cyanotoxin poisonings in terrestrial wildlife and identify possible improvements to reports of morbidity and mortality from cyanotoxins. A systematic search was conducted using the electronic databases Scopus and Web of Science, yielding 5059 published studies identifying 45 separate case reports of wildlife poisonings from North America, Africa, Europe, and Asia. Currently, no gold standard for the diagnosis of cyanotoxin intoxication exists for wildlife, and we present suggested guidelines here. These involved immunoassays and analytical chemistry techniques to identify the toxin involved, PCR to identify the cyanobacterial species involved, and evidence of ingestion or exposure to cyanotoxins in the animals affected. Of the 45 cases, our recommended methods concurred with 48.9% of cases. Most often, cases were investigated after a mortality event had already occurred, and where mitigation was implemented, only three cases were successful in their efforts. Notably, only one case of invasive cyanobacteria was recorded in this review despite invasive species being known to occur throughout the globe; this could explain the underreporting of invasive cyanobacteria. This systematic map highlights the perceived absence of robust detection, surveillance, and diagnosis of cyanotoxin poisoning in wildlife. It may be true that wildlife is less susceptible to these poisoning events; however, the true rates of poisoning are likely much more than is reported in the literature.
C. Coudrat, Wanlop Chutipong, Manakorn Sukmak
et al.
Abstract Otter populations are threatened by habitat loss, pollution, conflicts with humans, and illegal wildlife trade to meet the demand for pets, for their fur, and for parts used in traditional medicines. Baseline information on the distribution, population genetic diversity, and connectivity is crucial to inform conservation management decisions; however, reliable data from otter populations in Southeast Asia remain scarce. In this study, we conducted baseline otter fecal DNA surveys based on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) to identify species, assess the occurrence, and map the spatial distribution of genetic diversity and evolutionary relationships of otter populations using 1700 bp Cytochrome B ‐ Control Region and mitogenome from Nakai‐Nam Theun National Park in the Annamite Mountains of Lao PDR. Of the total 56 samples identified to species, the majority (87.5%) was of the widely distributed Eurasian otter with three haplotypes (Lutra lutra; LLLA01–LLLA03), with a calculated haplotype diversity of 0.600 and a nucleotide diversity of 0.00141 based on mitogenome. The second species was the Asian small‐clawed otter with only one haplotype detected (Aonyx cinereus; ACLA01). All Eurasian otter haplotypes were newly characterized and clustered within the strongly supported South–Southeast–North Asian clade of Lutra lutra. Compared with the European clade, the high mtDNA diversity of Lutra lutra in Nakai‐Nam Theun National Park potentially reflects long‐term demographic stability and lesser degree of population bottleneck during the last glacial maxima (LGM, ~21,000 years ago). The single haplotype detected in Asian small‐clawed otters had not been detected in previous genetic studies. Our research is the first otter‐specific noninvasive genetic study in Lao PDR and provides baseline insights into the otter population diversity in a regional priority site for biodiversity conservation.
S. K. Ahmed, D. Jeffries, Anannya Chakraborty
et al.
Abstract Background In the Asia‐Pacific region, around one‐third of the children who are out‐of‐school have a disability and given that teacher readiness and capability are key contributors for inclusive education, it is high time for a mapping of disability inclusive teacher professional development (TPD) interventions in this region. Objectives The key objective of this evidence and gap map (EGM) is to locate evidence on interventions for in‐service TPD focussing on education for the inclusion of students with a disability in low‐ and middle‐income countries (LMICs) in the Asia‐Pacific region. Search Methods A broad range of bibliographic databases and repositories were searched electronically to identify the evidence published between January 2000 and December 2021. Key search platforms included the British Education Index (BEI), Education Research Complete (ERC), Education Resources Information Center (ERIC), SCOPUS, 3ie Development Evidence Portal (Evidence Hub) and the Campbell Collaborations Systematic Reviews and EGMs portal (Better evidence for a better world). In addition, potential program evaluations/impact reports, reviews, case studies, and program descriptions/summaries were sought through ‘snowballing’ based on searching bibliographies and reference lists of papers located during the search process, as well as specific searches of relevant grey literature. Selection Criteria To be eligible for inclusion, studies had to contain sufficient details about TPD interventions that support early childhood educators and kindergarten to Year 12 teachers to understand the needs of students with disabilities and aid them to create inclusive mainstream classrooms and/or provide improved support for students with disabilities in special education settings. Data Collection and Analysis A total of 820 records were entered into the MS Excel file in which the entire data extraction process was managed. All records were screened against the predefined inclusion and exclusion criteria. Data were extracted independently by two reviewers and any differences were resolved through consultations. All included studies and their characteristics were extracted from the MS Excel file and uploaded to the ACER server in.csv file format. The interactive, online EGM is available here: https://datavis.acer.org/gem/disability-inclusion-TPD/. Main Results Fifty studies from 16 countries out of the 41 LMICs in the Asia‐Pacific region were identified, whereby Thailand had the largest number of studies with evidence (7) followed by China, Vietnam, and India (5 each). Two main gaps in research about professional learning were identified. First, only three studies reported interventions aimed at supporting mental health among students with a disability. Second, no studies were found that reported on how teachers could support positive student behaviour. These gaps are important because research has persistently suggested that experiencing disability is an important risk factor for young people developing mental health conditions. Authors' Conclusions This report illustrates the critical value of evaluating and publishing evidence from disability inclusive TPD interventions in LMICs, including any that are ongoing, or are components of highly resource intensive large‐scale education sector programs.
Background Kidney biopsy registries all over the world benefit research, teaching and health policy. Comparison, aggregation and exchange of data is however greatly dependent on how registration and coding of kidney biopsy diagnoses are performed. This paper gives an overview over kidney biopsy registries, explores how these registries code kidney disease and identifies needs for improvement of coding practice. Methods A literature search was undertaken to identify biopsy registries for medical kidney diseases. These data were supplemented with information from personal contacts and from registry websites. A questionnaire was sent to all identified registries, investigating age of registries, scope, method of coding, possible mapping to international terminologies as well as self-reported problems and suggestions for improvement. Results Sixteen regional or national kidney biopsy registries were identified, of which 11 were older than 10 years. Most registries were located either in Europe (10/16) or in Asia (4/16). Registries most often use a proprietary coding system (12/16). Only a few of these coding systems were mapped to SNOMED CT (1), older SNOMED versions (2) or ERA-EDTA PRD (3). Lack of maintenance and updates of the coding system was the most commonly reported problem. Conclusions There were large gaps in the global coverage of kidney biopsy registries. Limited use of international coding systems among existing registries hampers interoperability and exchange of data. The study underlines that the use of a common and uniform coding system is necessary to fully realize the potential of kidney biopsy registries.
Education is critical for improving energy efficiency and reducing CO2 concentration, but collaboration between countries is also critical. It is a global problem in which we cannot isolate ourselves. Our students must learn to collaborate in seeking solutions together with others from other countries. Thus, the research question of this study is whether interactive cross-border science classes with energy experiments are feasible and can increase awareness of energy efficiency among middle school students. We designed and tested an interactive cross-border class between Chilean and Peruvian eighth-grade classes. The classes were synchronously connected and all students did experiments and answered open-ended questions on an online platform. Some of the questions were designed to check conceptual understanding whereas others asked for suggestions of how to develop their economies while keeping CO2 air concentration at acceptable levels. In real time, the teacher reviewed the students’ written answers and the concept maps that were automatically generated based on their responses. Students peer-reviewed their classmates’ suggestions. This is part of an Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Science Technology Engineering Mathematics (STEM) education project on energy efficiency using APEC databases. We found high levels of student engagement, where students discussed not only the cross-cutting nature of energy, but also its relation to socioeconomic development and CO2 emissions, and the need to work together to improve energy efficiency. In conclusion, interactive cross-border science classes are a feasible educational alternative, with potential as a scalable public policy strategy for improving awareness of energy efficiency among the population.
We show that a closed orientable 3--dimensional manifold admits a round fold map into the plane, i.e. a fold map whose critical value set consists of disjoint simple closed curves isotopic to concentric circles, if and only if it is a graph manifold, generalizing the characterization for simple stable maps into the plane. Furthermore, we also give a characterization of closed orientable graph manifolds that admit directed round fold maps into the plane, i.e.\ round fold maps such that the number of regular fiber components of a regular value increases toward the central region in the plane.
Richard Nduwayezu, Hilary Kinney, J. H. Amuguni
et al.
Snakebite envenomation (SBE) is a neglected One Health issue that overwhelmingly affects people living in rural and impoverished regions of Africa and Asia. Information on SBE is scarce in Rwanda; thus, our objectives were to 1) describe the demographics of SBE patients seeking hospital care, 2) evaluate physician adherence to national treatment guidelines, and 3) assess availability of snake antivenom at hospitals in Rwanda. To achieve these goals, we obtained national data on animal bites/stings and visited every district and provincial hospital in Rwanda to obtain physical records of SBE patients treated in 2017 and 2018. Hospital pharmacies were assessed for antivenom availability. We identified snakes as the second leading cause of animal bites, after dogs, among patients who sought hospital care in 2017 and 2018. Of 363 SBE patients, the highest number of cases occurred among children (< 18 years; 32%) and young adults (18-30 years; 33%), females (61%), farmers (82%), and those living in Eastern Province (37%). Overall, physician adherence to treatment guidelines was 63%. Prescriptions of vitamin K and antivenom were low (4% and 13%, respectively), and only 8% of hospital pharmacies had antivenom in stock throughout the study period. The antivenom stocked was an Indian generic suited for Asian snakes. This minimum estimate of hospitalization cases does not include individuals who died in communities or sought care outside the formal sector. Our study highlights the need to map incidence, risk factors, and patient experiences to mitigate human-snake conflicts and improve patient outcomes.
Frequent cloud cover in the tropics significantly affects the observation of the surface by satellites. This has enormous implications for current approaches that estimate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from fires or map fire scars. These mainly employ data acquired in the visible to middle infrared bands to map fire scars or thermal data to estimate fire radiative power and consequently derive emissions. The analysis here instead explores the use of microwave data from the operational Sentinel-1A (S-1A) in dual-polarisation mode (VV and VH) acquired over Central Kalimantan during the 2015 fire season. Burnt areas were mapped in three consecutive periods between August and October 2015 using the random forests machine learning algorithm. In each mapping period, the omission and commission errors of the unburnt class were always below 3%, while the omission and commission errors of the burnt class were below 20% and 5% respectively. Summing the detections from the three periods gave a total burnt area of ∼1.6 million ha, but this dropped to ∼1.2 million ha if using only a pair of pre- and post-fire season S-1A images. Hence the ability of Sentinel-1 to make frequent observations significantly increases fire scar detection. Comparison with burnt area estimates from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) burnt area product at 5 km scale showed poor agreement, with consistently much lower estimates produced by the MODIS data-on average 14%–51% of those obtained in this study. The method presented in this study offers a way to reduce the substantial errors likely to occur in optical-based estimates of GHG emissions from fires in tropical areas affected by substantial cloud cover.
ABSTRACT Globally, Smallholder farming systems (SFS) are recognized as one of the most important pillars of rural economic development and poverty alleviation because of their contribution to food security. However, support for this agricultural sector is hampered by lack of reliable information on the distributions and acreage of smallholder fields. This information is essential in not only monitoring food security and informing markets but also in guiding the determination of levels of support required from government by individual farmers. There is urgent need for robust techniques that can be used to cost-effectively and time-efficiently map smallholder crop fields especially in Sub-Saharan Africa and Asia. This study attempts to do this by using an approach in which optical and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data are systematically combined and classified using Extreme Gradient Boosting (Xgboost). We also investigated model stacking as another technique to improve classification accuracy. We combined Xgboost with Random Forest (RF), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), and Naïve Bayes (NB). The combined use of multi-temporal Sentinel-2 bands, spectral indices, and Sentinel-1 produced better results than exclusive use of optical data (α = 0.95, p = 0.0005). Furthermore, stacking of classification algorithms based on model comparisons achieved higher accuracy than stacking the algorithms indiscriminately (α = 0.95, p = 0.0100). Through systematic fusion of SAR and optical data and hyper-parameter tuning of Xgboost, we achieved a maximum classification accuracy of 97.71%, while achieving a maximum accuracy of 96.06% through model stacking. This highlights the importance of multi-sensor data fusion and multi-classifier systems when mapping fragmented agricultural landscapes.
In this article, we prove that every unicritical polynomial map that has only rational multipliers is either a power map or a Chebyshev map. This provides some evidence in support of a conjecture by Milnor concerning rational maps whose multipliers are all integers.
Lluís Alsedà, Michał Misiurewicz, Rodrigo A. Pérez
We investigate the flexibility of the entropy (topological and metric) for the class of piecewise expanding unimodal maps. We show that the only restrictions for the values of the topological and metric entropies in this class are that both are positive, the topological entropy is at most $\log 2$, and by the Variational Principle, the metric entropy is not larger than the topological entropy. In order to have a better control on the metric entropy, we work mainly with topologically mixing piecewise expanding skew tent maps, for which there are only 2 different slopes. For those maps, there is an additional restriction that the topological entropy is larger than $\frac{1}{2}\log2$. We also make the interesting observation that for skew tent maps the sum of reciprocals of derivatives of all iterates of the map at the critical value is zero. It is a generalization and a different interpretation of the Milnor-Thurston formula connecting the topological entropy and the kneading determinant for unimodal maps.
INTRODUCTION Inherited susceptibility to lung cancer risk in never-smokers is poorly understood. The major reason for this gap in knowledge is that this disease is relatively uncommon (except in Asians), making it difficult to assemble an adequate study sample. In this study we conducted a genome-wide association study on the largest, to date, set of European-descent never-smokers with lung cancer. METHODS We conducted a two-phase (discovery and replication) genome-wide association study in never-smokers of European descent. We further augmented the sample by performing a meta-analysis with never-smokers from the recent OncoArray study, which resulted in a total of 3636 cases and 6295 controls. We also compare our findings with those in smokers with lung cancer. RESULTS We detected three genome-wide statistically significant single nucleotide polymorphisms rs31490 (odds ratio [OR]: 0.769, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.722-0.820; p value 5.31 × 10-16), rs380286 (OR: 0.770, 95% CI: 0.723-0.820; p value 4.32 × 10-16), and rs4975616 (OR: 0.778, 95% CI: 0.730-0.829; p value 1.04 × 10-14). All three mapped to Chromosome 5 CLPTM1L-TERT region, previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk in smokers and in never-smoker Asian women, and risk of other cancers including breast, ovarian, colorectal, and prostate. CONCLUSIONS We found that genetic susceptibility to lung cancer in never-smokers is associated to genetic variants with pan-cancer risk effects. The comparison with smokers shows that top variants previously shown to be associated with lung cancer risk only confer risk in the presence of tobacco exposure, underscoring the importance of gene-environment interactions in the etiology of this disease.
As part of multidisciplinary research on intracontinental deformation and surface uplift, we deployed a temporary broadband seismic array in central Mongolia covering an ∼900 × 600 km area extending from Lake Khövsgöl in the north to the Altai Mountains in the south. A total of 112 broadband stations were deployed as three separate subarrays in two separate mobilizations. Each subarray recorded local, regional, and teleseismic earthquakes for a 21-month period. Although the primary purpose of the array is to characterize the lithosphere and sublithospheric mantle, the array recorded a number of events of potential interest to the broader geoscience community including the Chelyabinsk meteor explosion, North Korean nuclear tests, the deep Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk earthquake, and large megathrust events offshore Chile and in Nepal. The array includes the first dense deployment of seismometers across the Hangay dome, a region previously believed to be relatively aseismic serving as a rigid block focusing strain to the west and south along the Mongolian and Gobi-Altai. Initial results from local earthquakes recorded by the array suggest that the Hangay is deforming rather than behaving as a rigid block and that the earthquake potential of faults within the Hangay should be incorporated in hazard analysis for Mongolia. Supplemental Content: Table of station location, sensor type, data range and recovery, sensor orientation, data quality, and site characteristics, and figures showing subarrays and station names of the central Mongolia seismic experiment plotted on Google Earth, and a plot of sensor orientation and histogram of uncertainty. INTRODUCTION Mongolia sits deep in the Asian continental interior between the Siberian craton to the north, the diffuse northern edge of deformation associated with the India–Asia collision to the south, and far-field subduction of the Pacific plate to the east (Fig. 1). Central and western Mongolia constitute a significant portion of the greater Mongolian plateau, an ∼2:6 million km2 area of central Asia with an average elevation of ∼1500 m. High-elevation low-relief surfaces are common on continents but are not predicted by plate tectonics. The origin and persistence of continental plateaus through time provides insight into the evolution of continents and interactions between mantle dynamics and surface processes. These large-scale topographic features impact the geologic record, climate, and biogeography. The high topography of the Mongolian plateau has been attributed to far-field effects of India–Asia convergence, Pacific plate subduction, mantle plume activity, convective mantle flow, and magmatic underplating (Molnar and Tapponnier, 1975; Windley and Allen, 1993; Cunningham, 2001; Petit et al., 2002, 2008; Yanovskaya and Kozhevnikov, 2003; Bayasgalan et al., 2005; Zorin et al., 2006). Within central Mongolia, the broad domal Hangay upland (∼200; 000 km2) is embedded in the greater Mongolian plateau. Elevations within the Hangay average 2500 m, approximately 1000 m above the regional trend. Locally, the highest peak Otgontenger reaches just over 4000 m. The drainage divide in the Hangay separates rivers flowing north to the Arctic Ocean from those flowing into internally drained basins to the west and south. A kinematic transition between predominantly compressional deformation to the south and extension adjacent to the Siberian craton takes place in Mongolia. In western Mongolia, northward-directed shortening related to the India–Asia collision decreases from south to north from ∼10 mm=yr south of the Altai, to∼4 mm=year in the Altai, and to 0 on the Siberian craton (Calais et al., 2003). Central and eastern Mongolia moves eastward at ∼4mm=yr (Calais et al., 2003). Major strike-slip faults within Mongolia accommodate the transition from shortening to extension and give rise to the Mongolian 1364 Seismological Research Letters Volume 90, Number 3 May/June 2019 doi: 10.1785/0220180360 Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-pdf/90/3/1364/4686492/srl-2018360.1.pdf by Missouri University of Science and Technology user on 07 December 2021 and Gobi-Altai ranges. The Bulnay and Gobi-Altai fault systems have sustained some of the largest recorded intracontinental earthquakes, four events M ≥ 8:0 within a 53 yr period in the early-to-mid-1900s (Tapponnier and Molnar, 1979; Khil’ko et al., 1985; Baljinnyam et al., 1993; Schlupp and Cisternas, 2007). Extension is accommodated by the Baikal, Tunka, Khövsgöl, Darkhad, and Busiingol rifts that wrap around the southern and eastern margin of the Siberian craton (Fig. 1). Mongolia has a complex geologic history. The crust is composed of Archean to early Proterozoic crystalline rocks modified by Paleozoic accretionary events associated with formation of the central Asian orogenic belt, a protracted and significant period of continental growth involving the opening and closing of ocean basins in the Neoproterozoic and early Phanerozoic (1000–250Ma; Şengör et al., 1993; Badarch et al., 2002; Jahn, 2004; Windley et al., 2007; Wilhem et al., 2012). The accreted terranes of Mongolia sit between the Siberian craton to the north and the Tarim and North China cratons to the south. Younger Cenozoic deformation and basalt volcanism continues today. The elevated low-relief landscape hosts a 30 Ma record of intermittent basalt magmatism sourced from the sublithospheric mantle (Barry et al., 2003; Yarmolyuk et al., 2008; Hunt et al., 2012; Ancuta et al., 2014; Carlson and Ionov, 2014; Ancuta et al., 2018). A number of these basalts contain mantle and lower crustal xenoliths (Stosch et al., 1995; Ionov, 2007; Carlson and Ionov, 2014). As part of a larger multidisciplinary project investigating the origin of high topography in continental interiors, we deployed temporary broadband seismic stations from 2012 to 2016 to determine the structure and composition of the lithosphere and sublithospheric mantle beneath the region. The deployment is a collaborative effort between Lehigh University, the University of Florida, and the Institute of Astronomy and Geophysics, Mongolian Academy of Sciences. The central Mongolia seismic experiment consists of 112 broadband seismic stations in two separate deployments covering an ∼900 × 600 km region in central Mongolia (Fig. 1). Although the primary purpose of the seismic experiment is to look at crustal and upper-mantle structure, the data recorded by the array are applicable to a number of studies. Local and regional earthquakes recorded by the array can be used to improve seismic hazard assessment in Mongolia. Data recorded by the array fill a significant gap in existing regional velocity and attenuation tomographic models for central and eastern Asia and can be used to improve geodynamic models and nuclear monitoring capabilities in this part of the world. Central Mongolia is antipodal to South America providing a window into deep Earth structure (Rial and Cormier, 1980; Butler et al., 1986; Poupinet et al., 1993; Butler and Tsuboi, 2010; Retailleau et al., 2014). Data recorded by the array have the potential to contribute to studies of surface and atmospheric processes. A number of the stations are located along rivers in the Hangay and Altai ranges and can be used to study fluvial processes and erosion (Burtin et al., 2008; Hsu et al., 2011; Schmandt et al., 2013; Roth et al., 2014). Central Mongolia is a major site of cyclogenesis in the lee of the Sayan, Hangay, and Altai ranges linked to loess deposition in China and midwinter storms in the North Pacific (Chung et al., 1976; Adachi and Kimura, 2007; Roe, 2009; Penny et al., 2010; Caves et al., 2015). Within the time period of the two deployments that make up the central Mongolia seismic experiment, we recorded a number of significant events: the Chelyabinsk meteor explosion in 2013, nuclear ▴ Figure 1. (a) Tectonic setting of Mongolia. AT, Altyn Tagh; BR, Baikal rift; DL, Mongolian depression of lakes; GA, Gobi-Altai; HD, Hangay dome; HR, Khövsgöl rift; KS, Kunlun Shan; MA, Mongolian Altai; QS, Qilian Shan; TB, Tunka basin; TS, Tien Shan. (b) Station locations central Mongolia seismic experiment, subarrays, and Global Seismic Network station ULN. More detailed station location maps including station names are included in E Figure S1 (available in the supplemental content to this article). The color version of this figure is available only in the electronic edition. Seismological Research Letters Volume 90, Number 3 May/June 2019 1365 Downloaded from http://pubs.geoscienceworld.org/ssa/srl/article-pdf/90/3/1364/4686492/srl-2018360.1.pdf by Missouri University of Science and Technology user on 07 December 2021 tests by North Korea in 2013 and 2016, the deep 2013Mw 8.3 Sea of Okhotsk earthquake and aftershock sequence, megathrust ruptures of the Chilean subduction zone in the 2014 Iquique Mw 8.2 and 2015 Illapel Mw 8.3 earthquakes, and the 2015 Mw 7.8 Gorkha earthquake in Nepal. In this article, we give a complete description of the central Mongolia seismic experiment, provide an overview of the data acquired, data quality, and noise characteristics, review events of interest recorded by the array, and present preliminary results of local seismicity in the Hangay. INSTRUMENT DEPLOYMENT A total of 112 broadband seismic stations were deployed in central Mongolia, extending from the Lake Khövsgöl region near the Mongolia–Russia border, through the Hangay dome region, and into the Gobi-Altai region near the Mongolia– China border (Fig. 1). The stations were deployed as three separate subarrays in two separate mobilizations. From June 2012 to April 2014, a 72-station seismic array was deployed across the Hangay dome in central Mongolia, 61 STS-2 sensors from Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology–Program for the Array Seismic Studies of the Continental Lithosphere (IRIS-PASSCAL) and 7 STS-2.5 and 4 STS-2 sensors from the University of Flo
Background and Purpose: Orthotomicus erosus, Mediterranean pine engraver, is widely distributed across the Mediterranean and southern Europe, Asia and North Africa. It is considered as secondary pest found on recently dead or felled trees, but can also attack weakened living trees. In high population levels this species can attack healthy trees and cause their dieback. Severe outbreaks occur after dry periods, or after fire in adjoining stands in warmer parts of the Mediterranean region, while this scenario has never happened in Croatia up to now. Bark beetles are important forest pests which have already been researched and discussed in relation to climate change, indicating that the predicted increase in temperature would lead to higher survival rates and faster development, thus directly influencing their population dynamics. Increase in temperature may stimulate changes in insects’ rate of development, voltinism, population density, size, genetic composition, extent of host plant exploitation, longitudinal and latitudinal distribution. Since climate conditions might have changed in the last few years as predicted in the Mediterranean region, the aim of our research is to document the first outbreak with high population levels of O. erosus in Croatia. Materials and Methods: The extent of dieback was evaluated by counting trees with dieback symptoms on diagonal transects plotted through each of 33 forest management sections of Marjan Forest Park (Split). Trunk sections from several trees with early stage symptoms were collected for further laboratory analysis, which consisted of incubation phase and subsequent morphological identification. During regular yearly surveys in forests of Croatia, the pest was observed on several sites and damages were recorded for both years 2017 and 2018. The records were entered into a map using QGIS version 3.2.1-Bonn. Spatial data was downloaded from DIVA-GIS server. Monitoring efforts were initiated in affected areas where 13 flight barrier pheromone traps (Theyson®) equipped with pheromone lure Erosowit® (Witasek, Austria) were set-up in late March in state-owned and privately owned forests across Dalmatia. Catches in the traps were collected and O. erosus adults were counted on a weekly basis in order to identify the abundance of the pest in monitored sites, as well as to obtain the first information about population dynamics and to assess voltinism. Results: On-site survey and the evaluation of dieback extent included sampling of 5% of all trees in Marjan Forest Park ,and the results showed that 23% of all trees in the forest park were affected by dieback symptoms. Visual examination of trunks, branches and bark showed symptoms of bark beetle infestation, while preliminary on-site examination of the observed adults pointed out to O. erosus. After two weeks in controlled conditions, bark beetle adults started to emerge from trunk sections which were placed in several mesh cages for incubation. Morphological identification by using stereomicroscope and the key for European bark beetles resulted in identification of O. erosus species. Over the course of the year 2017 one more site was reported to be infested with O. erosus, and eight additional sites were reported over the course of year 2018. In total, 446 ha were reported as infested, varying in intensity, in several different management units of state-owned and privately owned forests. The total number of trapped beetles in pheromone traps varied largely among sites. Our data indicate that several generations (at least 5 generations per year) were present in the year 2018. Conclusions: Sudden surge in observed damages, as well as the number of beetles trapped during monitoring, in years 2017 and 2018 throughout Aleppo pine forests in Dalmatia are the first record of O. erosus outbreak in Croatia. O. erosus is native to Croatia and so far it has been considered only as a minor pest whose outbreaks have never been recorded. Drought intensity and frequency and aridification trends in the research area (Dalmatia, Croatia) cause cumulative stress to trees and have increased O. erosus occurrence. O. erosus is expected to exhibit increased voltinism, better overwintering performance and earlier spring flights. Our first results confirm this epidemic stage of O. erosus with high abundances in Dalmatia in 2018 and at least 5 generations per year, which alter the population level of this pest. Finally, with high dispersal abilities of O. erosus through active flight and easy transportation with infested material (logs and branches with bark), O. erosus has the potential to become an important forest pest in Croatia. Thus, extensive studies on its biology, ecology, natural enemies and interaction with ophiostomatoid fungal species are needed in order to predict further spread and suggest viable and effective management measures.