Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

Yingxuan Yang, Ying Wen, Jun Wang et al.

The rise of Large Language Models (LLMs) has transformed AI agents from passive computational tools into autonomous economic actors. This shift marks the emergence of the agent-centric economy, in which agents take on active economic roles-exchanging value, making strategic decisions, and coordinating actions with minimal human oversight. To realize this vision, we propose Agent Exchange (AEX), a specialized auction platform designed to support the dynamics of the AI agent marketplace. AEX offers an optimized infrastructure for agent coordination and economic participation. Inspired by Real-Time Bidding (RTB) systems in online advertising, AEX serves as the central auction engine, facilitating interactions among four ecosystem components: the User-Side Platform (USP), which translates human goals into agent-executable tasks; the Agent-Side Platform (ASP), responsible for capability representation, performance tracking, and optimization; Agent Hubs, which coordinate agent teams and participate in AEX-hosted auctions; and the Data Management Platform (DMP), ensuring secure knowledge sharing and fair value attribution. We outline the design principles and system architecture of AEX, laying the groundwork for agent-based economic infrastructure in future AI ecosystems.

Prashant Garg, Thiemo Fetzer

As economics scales, a key bottleneck is representing what papers claim in a comparable, aggregable form. We introduce evidence-annotated claim graphs that map each paper into a directed network of standardized economic concepts (nodes) and stated relationships (edges), with each edge labeled by evidentiary basis, including whether it is supported by causal inference designs or by non-causal evidence. Using a structured multi-stage AI workflow, we construct claim graphs for 44,852 economics papers from 1980-2023. The share of causal edges rises from 7.7% in 1990 to 31.7% in 2020. Measures of causal narrative structure and causal novelty are positively associated with top-five publication and long-run citations, whereas non-causal counterparts are weakly related or negative.

Herbert Dawid, Philipp Harting, Hankui Wang et al.

This paper introduces a methodology based on agentic workflows for economic research that leverages Large Language Models (LLMs) and multimodal AI to enhance research efficiency and reproducibility. Our approach features autonomous and iterative processes covering the entire research lifecycle--from ideation and literature review to economic modeling and data processing, empirical analysis and result interpretation--with strategic human oversight. The workflow architecture comprises specialized agents with clearly defined roles, structured inter-agent communication protocols, systematic error escalation pathways, and adaptive mechanisms that respond to changing research demand. Human-in-the-loop (HITL) checkpoints are strategically integrated to ensure methodological validity and ethical compliance. We demonstrate the practical implementation of our framework using Microsoft's open-source platform, AutoGen, presenting experimental examples that highlight both the current capabilities and future potential of agentic workflows in improving economic research.

Dennis Müller

The mathematisation of the socio-economic sphere, where mathematics actively constructs social reality, presents a challenge for studies on ethics in mathematics and its education. While existing scholarship on ethics in mathematics offers insights, it often remains philosophically driven and disconnected from other relevant disciplines. This paper addresses this gap by asking how debates on ethics in mathematics and its education can be connected with economic sociology, and what socio-economic tensions become visible through this connection. Drawing from concepts such as imagined futures, varieties of capitalism, and variegated capitalism, we synthesise a new perspective. This analysis reveals six interconnected tensions: a socio-economic valuation gap regarding ethics education; the multifaceted implementation of mathematics across different capitalist systems; its material opaqueness; a growing gap between economic power and social unaccountability; the enclosure of imagination limiting sustainable futures; and the erosion of multilateralism, which challenges critical pedagogy. The paper's contribution is a first step towards a structural socio-economic framework that links the limited literature on ethics in mathematics with these broader sociological perspectives.

Pierluigi Colli, Jürgen Sprekels, Fredi Tröltzsch

In this paper we study the optimal control of a parabolic initial-boundary value problem of viscous Cahn-Hilliard type with zero Neumann boundary conditions. Phase field systems of this type govern the evolution of diffusive phase transition processes with conserved order parameter. It is assumed that the nonlinear functions driving the physical processes within the spatial domain are double-well potentials of logarithmic type whose derivatives become singular at the boundary of their respective domains of definition. For such systems, optimal control problems have been studied in the past. We focus here on the situation when the cost functional of the optimal control problem contains a nondifferentiable term like the L1-norm, which leads to sparsity of optimal controls. For such cases, we establish first-order necessary and second-order sufficient optimality conditions for locally optimal controls. In the approach to second-order sufficient conditions, the main novelty of this paper, we adapt a technique introduced by E. Casas, C. Ryll and F. Tröltzsch in the paper [SIAM J. Control Optim. 53 (2015), 2168-2202]. In this paper, we show that this method can also be successfully applied to systems of viscous Cahn-Hilliard type with logarithmic nonlinearity. Since the Cahn-Hilliard system corresponds to a fourth-order partial differential equation in contrast to the second-order systems investigated before, additional technical difficulties have to be overcome.

Tomohiro Hirano, Joseph E. Stiglitz

This paper presents a model that studies the impact of credit expansions arising from increases in collateral values or lower interest rate policies on long-run productivity and economic growth in a two-sector endogenous growth economy, with the driver of growth lying in one sector (manufacturing) but not in the other (real estate). We show that it is not so much aggregate credit expansion that matters for long-run productivity and economic growth but sectoral credit expansions. Credit expansions associated mainly with relaxation of real estate financing (capital investment financing) will be productivity-and growth-retarding (enhancing). Without financial regulations, low interest rates and more expansionary monetary policy may so encourage land speculation using leverage that productive capital investment and economic growth are decreased. Unlike in standard macroeconomic models, in ours, the equilibrium price of land will be finite even if the safe rate of interest is less than the rate of output growth.

Subramanyam Sahoo, Kamlesh Dutta

The relentless pursuit of technological advancements has ushered in a new era where artificial intelligence (AI) is not only a powerful tool but also a critical economic driver. At the forefront of this transformation is Generative AI, which is catalyzing a paradigm shift across industries. Deep generative models, an integration of generative and deep learning techniques, excel in creating new data beyond analyzing existing ones, revolutionizing sectors from production and manufacturing to finance. By automating design, optimization, and innovation cycles, Generative AI is reshaping core industrial processes. In the financial sector, it is transforming risk assessment, trading strategies, and forecasting, demonstrating its profound impact. This paper explores the sweeping changes driven by deep learning models like Large Language Models (LLMs), highlighting their potential to foster innovative business models, disruptive technologies, and novel economic landscapes. As we stand at the threshold of an AI-driven economic era, Generative AI is emerging as a pivotal force, driving innovation, disruption, and economic evolution on a global scale.

Yuxin Hu

This article presents an analysis of China's economic evolution amidst demographic changes from 1990 to 2050, offering valuable insights for academia and policymakers. It uniquely intertwines various economic theories with empirical data, examining the impact of an aging population, urbanization, and family dynamics on labor, demand, and productivity. The study's novelty lies in its integration of Classical, Neoclassical, and Endogenous Growth theories, alongside models like Barro and Sala-i-Martin, to contextualize China's economic trajectory. It provides a forward-looking perspective, utilizing econometric methods to predict future trends, and suggests practical policy implications. This comprehensive approach sheds light on managing demographic transitions in a global context, making it a significant contribution to the field of demographic economics.

Md. Toaha, Laboni Mondal

The paper examined the impact of agricultural credit on economic growth in Bangladesh. The annual data of agriculture credit were collected from annual reports of the Bangladesh Bank and other data were collected from the world development indicator (WDI) of the World Bank. By employing Johansen cointegration test and vector error correction model (VECM), the study revealed that there exists a long run relationship between the variables. The results of the study showed that agriculture credit had a positive impact on GDP growth in Bangladesh. The study also found that gross capital formation had a positive, while inflation had a negative association with economic growth in Bangladesh. Therefore, the government and policymakers should continue their effort to increase the volume of agriculture credit to achieve sustainable economic growth.

Giuseppe Celi, Dario Guarascio, Jelena Reljic et al.

Abstract In 2019, over 96% of EU27 oil needs, nearly 90% of natural gas and over 43% of solid fuels were met by net imports, with the largest share coming from Russia (35% of oil, 40% of natural gas and 20% of solid fuels consumed in EU27). The decline in the share of oil since 2016 was more than off-set by the increase in gas and solid fuels.

Thomas Brändle, Pierre-Alain Bruchez, Carsten Colombier et al.

Abstract The ongoing coronavirus pandemic crisis as well as demographic and climate change pose major challenges for public finances. This article deals with the implications of demographic trends in Switzerland, i.e. the progressive ageing of the population and its impact on the country’s public finances in the long run. As the analysis shows, the brunt of the demographic burden is borne by the old-age pension scheme, health and long-term care. This article also addresses the financial ramifications of the COVID-19 crisis and shows the need for economic policy action over the longer term to ensure the sustainability of public finances in Switzerland. Furthermore, a qualitative assessment of climate change is included, as it constitutes an additional major long-term challenge for public finances.

Anirban Majumder, Sudip Chatterjee, Kingshuk Bhattacharjee

Introduction: Suicide rates and suicidal tendencies among gender incongruent persons are higher compared to the general population. Yet little is known about the factors that are relevant for suicide-related outcomes among Indian gender incongruent individuals. Materials and Methods: Within a large sample of gender incongruent adults (n=120), we examined the contribution of demographic (age, assigned sex, gender identity, relationship, and addiction status) and socio-economic variables (education, profession, income, social support) in the prediction of three suicide-related outcomes: past-year suicidal thought, history of suicidal attempt and a composite measure of the two. Results: Of the entire sample, 25.8% (n=31) reported a past suicide attempt, with 18.3% (n = 22) reporting one attempt, 2.5% (n = 3) reporting two attempts, 1.7% (n = 2) reporting three attempts and 2.5% (n=3) reporting four to six attempts. The age at which the first suicide attempt occurs is mostly between 16 to 18 years. 19.26% (n = 21) reported that although they had not attempted suicide, they had given serious thought to killing themselves in the last year. A Chi-square test was conducted to ascertain each demographic variable and socio-economic marker. However, none of these proposed predictors correlated with suicide-related outcomes in our cohort. Conclusions: The gender incongruent community is highly susceptible to suicidal behavior. Gender identity may be the risk factor for that behavior. Further study with larger population needs to identify other relevant risk factors, including gender-related victimization and mental health conditions as risk factors.

Sotaro Sada, Yuichi Ikeda

Global value chains (GVCs) are formed through value-added trade, and some regions promote economic integration by concluding regional trade agreements to promote these chains. However, there is no way to quantitatively assess the scope and extent of economic integration involving various sectors in multiple countries. In this study, we used the World Input--Output Database to create a cross-border sector-wise trade in value-added network (international value-added network (IVAN)) covering the period of 2000--2014 and evaluated them using network science methods. By applying Infomap to the IVAN, we confirmed for the first time the existence of two regional communities: Europe and the Pacific Rim. Helmholtz--Hodge decomposition was used to decompose the value flows within the region into potential and circular flows, and the annual evolution of the potential and circular relationships between countries and sectors was clarified. The circular flow component of the decomposition was used to define an economic integration index, and findings confirmed that the degree of economic integration in Europe declined sharply after the economic crisis in 2009 to a level lower than that in the Pacific Rim. The European economic integration index recovered in 2011 but again fell below that of the Pacific Rim in 2013. Moreover, sectoral analysis showed that the economic integration index captured the effect of Russian mineral resources, free movement of labor in Europe, and international division of labor in the Pacific Rim, especially in GVCs for the manufacture of motor vehicles and high-tech products.

Philip Lubin, Alexander N. Cohen

Large scale directed energy offers the possibility of radical transformation in a variety of areas, including the ability to achieve relativistic flight that will enable the first interstellar missions, as well as rapid interplanetary transit. In addition, the same technology will allow for long-range beamed power for ion, ablation, and thermal engines, as well as long-range recharging of distant spacecraft, long-range and ultra high bandwidth laser communications, and many additional applications that include remote composition analysis, manipulation of asteroids, and full planetary defense. Directed energy relies on photonics which, like electronics, is an exponentially expanding growth area driven by diverse economic interests that allows transformational advances in space exploration and capability. We have made enormous technological progress in the last few years to enable this long-term vision. In addition to the technological challenges, we must face the economic challenges to bring the vision to reality. The path ahead requires a fundamental change in the system designs to allow for the radical cost reductions required. To afford the full-scale realization of this vision we will need to bring to fore integrated photonics and mass production as a path forward. Fortunately, integrated photonics is a technology driven by vast consumer need for high speed data delivery. We outline the fundamental physics that drive the economics and derive an analytic cost model that allows us to logically plan the path ahead.

György Hajnal, György Jenei, Károly Mike et al.

Egy innováció a Közgazdaságtudományi Karon: Út a Közszolgálati Tanszéktől a Közgazdálkodási és Közpolitikai Tanszékig

GYÖRGY BODA, PÉTER JUHÁSZ, MIKLÓS STOCKER

A tudástőke szempontjából különösen fontos a GDP igazságos elosztása. Ha az elosztás – a korlátok figyelembe vétele mellett – nem igazodik a tudásbefektetésekhez, a gazdasági növekedés lassul, mivel romlik a tudásnak mint termelési tényezőnek a hatékonysága. A politikai váltógazdaság viszonyai között mindig onnan veszik el a jövedelmet, ahol a negatív hatások csak késéssel jelentkeznek, és ezzel tartósan sértik a tudástőke létrehozásában aktív társadalmi rétegek befektetésarányos jövedelmi elvárásait. Ennek a gyakorlatnak a folytatása a társadalmi kérdések kiéleződéséhez, a belső társadalmi béke megbomlásához, balkanizálódáshoz vezet.

S.N. Singh

The informal economy plays a key role in ensuring economic growth and social well-being in developing countries. In particular, in Africa, more than 60% of the urban population, as well as almost 80% of the nonagricultural population, are employed in the informal economy. The main purpose of the study is to study the role of street commerce in supporting urban life. The object of study is one of Ethiopia’s remote cities, Matt. The extent of the impact of street commerce on the incomes of the urban population, including those who do not own land, is analyzed in the study. The study is aimed at finding patterns between the living conditions of urban population living on the brink of poverty and the dynamics of street commerce, the proceeds of which are directed to meet their daily physiological needs. The scientific approaches to the study of the relationship between the volume of street commerce and living conditions of urban population have been systematized. The source of the primary data for the survey is questionnaires that contained information on the sociodemographic profile of street traders, the extent of their activity, the amount of start-up capital, access to credit, and their main difficulties in this type of activity. Descriptive statistics methods became a methodological tool of the conducted research. The results of the empirical analysis have shown that there is a positive correlation between street commerce and the well-being of urban populations. In addition, it is found that about 37.9% of people involved in street trading are experiencing problems as a result of tightening regulatory regulations by the state. The study empirically confirms and theoretically proves that street selling is one of the important sources of urban existence in Ethiopia. The results of the study can be useful for government officials, NGOs, international institutions, as well as researchers dealing with this issue.

James Otterson

We use Hölder's inequality to get simple derivations of certain economic formulas involving CES, Armington, or $n$-stage Armington functions.

Victor Olkhov

We introduce the price probability measure η(p;t) that defines the mean price p(1;t), mean square price p(2;t), price volatility σp2(t)and all price n-th statistical moments p(n;t) as ratio of sums of n-th degree values C(n;t) and volumes U(n;t) of market trades aggregated during certain time interval Δ. The definition of the mean price p(1;t) coincides with definition of the volume weighted average price (VWAP) introduced at least 30 years ago. We show that price volatility σp2(t) forecasting requires modeling evolution of the sums of second-degree values C(2;t) and volumes U(2;t). We call this model as second-order economic theory. We use numerical continuous risk ratings as ground for risk assessment of economic agents and distribute agents by risk ratings as coordinates. We introduce continuous economic media approximation of squares of values and volumes of agents trades and their flows aggregated during time interval Δ. We take into account expectations that govern agents trades and introduce aggregated expectations alike to aggregated trades. We derive equations for continuous economic media approximation on the second-degree trades. In the linear approximation we derive mean square price p(2;t) and volatility σp2(t) disturbances as functions of the first and second-degree trades disturbances. Description of each next n-th price statistical moment p(n;t) with respect to the unit price measure η(p;t) depends on sums of n-th degree values C(n;t) and volumes U(n;t) of market trades and hence requires development of the corresponding n-th order economic theory.

Daniel Seligson, Anne McCants

The central problems of Development Economics are the explanation of the gross disparities in the global distribution, $\cal{D}$, of economic performance, $\cal{E}$, and the persistence, $\cal{P}$, of said distribution. Douglass North argued, epigrammatically, that institutions, $\cal{I}$, are the rules of the game, meaning that $\cal{I}$ determines or at least constrains $\cal{E}$. This promised to explain $\cal{D}$. 65,000 citations later, the central problems remain unsolved. North's institutions are informal, slowly changing cultural norms as well as roads, guilds, and formal legislation that may change overnight. This definition, mixing the static and the dynamic, is unsuited for use in a necessarily time dependent theory of developing economies. We offer here a suitably precise definition of $\cal{I}$, a dynamical theory of economic development, a new measure of the economy, an explanation of $\cal{P}$, a bivariate model that explains half of $\cal{D}$, and a critical reconsideration of North's epigram.