Hasil untuk "Political science (General)"

Peter Kyungtae Park

Shift-share designs are gaining popularity in political science. This article introduces what shift-share designs are, reviews their application in the literature, synthesizes recent methodological developments, and discusses their potential utility in the field. Although shift-share designs have a long historical use in economics, their causal properties only recently began to be understood. Articles in political science tend to be aware of these developments, but do not fully discuss and test identifying assumptions and sometimes apply the methods incorrectly. Most articles rely on the share exogeneity framework, suggesting that the shifter exogeneity framework is underutilized despite its comparable prevalence in economics. I illustrate shifter exogeneity framework and develop auxiliary theoretical results that are potentially useful in applying the framework in political science settings.

Mingrong Wang, Longnan Ma

This paper examines the impact of import competition on skill premium and the moderating effect of labor market flexibility on it, using panel data from 30 provinces in China from 2010 to 2019. A dynamic panel threshold model with instrumental variables is employed to address the endogeneity problem and to identify the nonlinear moderating effect of labor market flexibility. The results show the following: (1) Import competition has a promoting effect on skill premium, and this effect declines from eastern to western regions in China. (2) The import competition increases the skill premium through the channels of enhancing regional innovation capacity and promoting industrial upgrading and rationalization. (3) There exists a significant threshold effect in the moderating effect of labor market flexibility. When labor market flexibility surpasses the threshold value of 1.330, the enhancing effect of import competition on the skill premium is alleviated, facilitating labor reallocation and wage adjustment. The integration of labor market flexibility into the globalization–inequality debate extends the existing literature for providing a new understanding of the mechanisms behind the skill premium. The policy implications are that targeted labor market reforms are essential for mitigating wage differentials between skilled and unskilled workers arising from intensified import competition.

Carolina Torreblanca, William Dinneen, Guy Grossman et al.

How has the credibility revolution shaped political science? We address this question by classifying 91,632 articles published between 2003 and 2023 across 156 political science journals using large language models, focusing on research design, credibility-enhancing practices, and citation patterns. We find that design-based studies -- those leveraging plausibly exogenous variation to justify causal claims -- have become increasingly common and receive a citation premium. In contrast, model-based approaches that rely on strong modeling assumptions have declined. Yet the rise of design-based work is uneven: it is concentrated in top journals and among authors at highly ranked institutions, and it is driven primarily by the growth of survey experiments. Other credibility-enhancing practices that help reduce false positives and false negatives, such as placebo tests and power calculations, remain rare. Taken together, our findings point to substantial but selective change, more consistent with a partial reform than a revolution.

Lisa P. Argyle, Ethan C. Busby, Joshua R. Gubler et al.

Generative large language models (LLMs) are incredibly useful, versatile, and promising tools. However, they will be of most use to political and social science researchers when they are used in a way that advances understanding about real human behaviors and concerns. To promote the scientific use of LLMs, we suggest that researchers in the political and social sciences need to remain focused on the scientific goal of inference. To this end, we discuss the challenges and opportunities related to scientific inference with LLMs, using validation of model output as an illustrative case for discussion. We propose a set of guidelines related to establishing the failure and success of LLMs when completing particular tasks, and discuss how we can make inferences from these observations. We conclude with a discussion of how this refocus will improve the accumulation of shared scientific knowledge about these tools and their uses in the social sciences.

Mažvydas Jastramskis

Aukštų pareigūnų skyrimo galią Lietuvos prezidento institucijai priskiria ir prezidentų galias tyrinėjantys akademikai, ir politikos praktikai. Straipsnyje nagrinėjama, kas lemia prezidento dekretų, kuriais Seimui teikiamos aukštų valstybės pareigūnų nominacijos, sėkmę arba nesėkmę. Kartu tyrimo teorija ir rezultatai yra interpretuojami platesniame pusiau prezidentizmo literatūros kontekste: ką ši galia pasako apie prezidentų vaidmenį ir režimo veikimą? Analizei naudojamas originalus duomenų rinkinys. Jį sudaro 337 Lietuvos prezidentų 1993–2023 m. Seimui teikti dekretai, kuriais buvo skiriami valstybės pareigūnai. Statistinė analizė yra papildoma pusiau struktūruotų interviu su aukšto rango politikais medžiaga. Tyrimas atskleidžia kelis esminius dalykus. Pirma, didelis dekretų sėkmės procentas (apie 92,7) yra paaiškinamas konstitucinio algoritmo paskatų ir neformalios praktikos suderinti nominacijas tarp prezidento ir valdančiosios daugumos prieš jas pateikiant Seimui. Antra, kiekybinė analizė ir kokybiniai interviu rodo, kad dekretų sėkmę didina paskyrimai į teismines institucijas ir kai yra patariamoji institucija (Teisėjų taryba), o mažina – paskyrimai į institucijų vadovų postus. Trečia, kai kuriuos atvejus gali paaiškinti su asmeniu susiję veiksniai – amžius (kiekybinės analizės rezultatas) arba prisistatymas Seime (interviu medžiaga). Galiausiai, sugyventinio režimas – kai prezidentas ir valdančioji parlamento dauguma turi skirtingas politines pažiūras – paaiškina dekretų sėkmę tik iš dalies. Kartais dekretai būna nepriimami dėl santykių „temperatūros“ nukritimo trumpajame laikotarpyje. Tačiau iš to yra sugrįžtama į bendradarbiavimo fazę – taigi aukštų pareigūnų skyrimo galia Lietuvos režime šiuo požiūriu prieštarauja pusiau prezidentizmo tyrimuose populiariai konkurencijos tarp vykdomosios valdžios grandžių paradigmai. Prezidentas ir aplink šią galią sudėliota stabdžių ir atsvarų sistema kone idealiai įkūnija moderatoriaus funkciją, tačiau svarbi sąlyga yra tai, kad pats moderatorius yra konstituciškai „moderuojamas“.

Gabriel Gustavo Maresca

Present the most significant findings that were obtained within the framework of the Support Program for Teaching Researchers “PROAPI2021” of the Secretariat of Research and Technological and Institutional Linkage of the National University of Avellaneda of Argentina. (1) Background: Investigate the strengths and weaknesses of companies when implementing teleworking during the COVID-19 pandemic to continue with the productive matrix; (2) Methods: The fieldwork focuses on the study of 19 companies from the five productive sectors with the greatest representation in the town of Avellaneda, Argentina, using a teleworking efficiency index as a measurement instrument; (3) Results: The main results in terms of efficiency occur with the possibility of combining work with family life at 97.05%, the enthusiasm and motivation to telework at 84.45%, and the assurance of optimal internet connection quality by 74.6%; (4) Conclusions: The study shows that the variables that present the greatest efficiency are those that are more related to the traditional work scheme, and not to the new modality offered by teleworking. We continue to think about a conventional work model.

Zhenyu Wang, Dequan Wang, Yi Xu et al.

The recent wave of artificial intelligence, epitomized by large language models (LLMs),has presented opportunities and challenges for methodological innovation in political science,sparking discussions on a potential paradigm shift in the social sciences. However, how can weunderstand the impact of LLMs on knowledge production and paradigm transformation in thesocial sciences from a comprehensive perspective that integrates technology and methodology? What are LLMs' specific applications and representative innovative methods in political scienceresearch? These questions, particularly from a practical methodological standpoint, remainunderexplored. This paper proposes the "Intelligent Computing Social Modeling" (ICSM) methodto address these issues by clarifying the critical mechanisms of LLMs. ICSM leverages thestrengths of LLMs in idea synthesis and action simulation, advancing intellectual exploration inpolitical science through "simulated social construction" and "simulation validation." Bysimulating the U.S. presidential election, this study empirically demonstrates the operationalpathways and methodological advantages of ICSM. By integrating traditional social scienceparadigms, ICSM not only enhances the quantitative paradigm's capability to apply big data toassess the impact of factors but also provides qualitative paradigms with evidence for socialmechanism discovery at the individual level, offering a powerful tool that balances interpretabilityand predictability in social science research. The findings suggest that LLMs will drivemethodological innovation in political science through integration and improvement rather thandirect substitution.

Chenxiao Yu, Jinyi Ye, Yuangang Li et al.

While LLMs have demonstrated remarkable capabilities in text generation and reasoning, their ability to simulate human decision-making -- particularly in political contexts -- remains an open question. However, modeling voter behavior presents unique challenges due to limited voter-level data, evolving political landscapes, and the complexity of human reasoning. In this study, we develop a theory-driven, multi-step reasoning framework that integrates demographic, temporal and ideological factors to simulate voter decision-making at scale. Using synthetic personas calibrated to real-world voter data, we conduct large-scale simulations of recent U.S. presidential elections. Our method significantly improves simulation accuracy while mitigating model biases. We examine its robustness by comparing performance across different LLMs. We further investigate the challenges and constraints that arise from LLM-based political simulations. Our work provides both a scalable framework for modeling political decision-making behavior and insights into the promise and limitations of using LLMs in political science research.

Leah Cathryn Windsor

Child Impact Statements (CIS) are instrumental in helping to foreground the concerns and needs of minor community members who are too young to vote and often unable to advocate for themselves politically. While many politicians and policymakers assert they make decisions in the best interests of children, they often lack the necessary information to meaningfully accomplish this. CISs are akin to Environmental Impact Statements in that both give voice to constituents who are often under-represented in policymaking. This paper highlights an interdisciplinary collaboration between Social Science and Computer Science to create a CIS tool for policymakers and community members in Shelby County, TN. Furthermore, this type of collaboration is fruitful beyond the scope of the CIS tool. Social scientists and computer scientists can leverage their complementary skill sets in data management and data interpretation for the benefit of their communities, advance scientific knowledge, and bridge disciplinary divides within the academy.

Nina Smirnova

This technical report outlines the filtering approach applied to the collection of the Bielefeld Academic Search Engine (BASE) data to extract articles from the political science domain. We combined hard and soft filters to address entries with different available metadata, e.g. title, abstract or keywords. The hard filter is a weighted keyword-based approach. The soft filter uses a multilingual BERT-based classification model, trained to detect scientific articles from the political science domain. We evaluated both approaches using an annotated dataset, consisting of scientific articles from different scientific domains. The weighted keyword-based approach achieved the highest total accuracy of 0.88. The multilingual BERT-based classification model was fine-tuned using a dataset of 14,178 abstracts from scientific articles and reached the highest total accuracy of 0.98. The proposed filtering approach can be applied for filtering metadata from other scientific domains and therefore improve the overview of the domain-related literature and facilitate efficiency in research.

Ahmad Wahidiyat Haedar

This research aims to investigate the effectiveness of digital marketing strategies in the public sector of tourism and their role in enhancing promotion and engagement within the tourism industry. The background of the study highlights the increasing importance of digital platforms in marketing and the need for the public sector to adopt effective strategies to promote tourism. The objective of this research is to analyze the methods employed by public sector organizations in implementing digital marketing strategies and to assess their impact on promotion and engagement in the tourism industry. To achieve this objective, a mixed-methods approach was utilized, combining quantitative analysis of digital marketing campaigns and qualitative interviews with key stakeholders in the public sector of tourism. The quantitative analysis involved evaluating the reach and engagement metrics of various digital marketing initiatives, including social media campaigns, email marketing, and website optimization. The qualitative interviews provided insights into the decision-making processes, challenges, and success factors associated with implementing digital marketing strategies. The findings of this research reveal that effective digital marketing strategies play a crucial role in promoting tourism and enhancing engagement in the public sector. The analysis of digital marketing campaigns demonstrates the significant impact of social media platforms, targeted email marketing, and website optimization in reaching and engaging with the target audience. Additionally, the interviews highlight the importance of collaboration between public sector organizations, private sector stakeholders, and local communities in designing and implementing effective digital marketing strategies.

S. O. Buranok

The Monroe Doctrine occupies a unique place in the US history. It became one of the key foreign policy documents of its time and provided the basis for a wide variety of interpretations of the United States’ role and goals in the international arena at turning points of world history. One of these moments was the turn of the 1910s−1920s, when a new Versailles-Washington order of international relations was emerging. In the US public discourse, this period was marked by intense debates between supporters of the Democratic President V. Wilson and his isolationist opponents. Both Republicans and Democrats constantly referred to the Monroe Doctrine, on the one hand, to justify their own views on US foreign policy in the new conditions, and, on the other hand, to refute the arguments of their political opponents. The controversy surrounding the Monroe Doctrine has been reflected in publications in periodicals and analytical journals, as well as in cartoons. Studying these materials, it is possible to trace the evolution of the approaches of American politicians, experts, editors, and journalists to the Monroe Doctrine. The arguments of the Republicans against the ‘internationalist’ interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine that emerged in the face of the changing global context after the First World War are of particular interest. The study shows that at the initial stage of discussions (1920), the Monroe Doctrine was used by the Republicans primarily to criticize W. Wilson’s concept of international relations in general and his position on the League of Nations in particular. At the next stage (1921−1923), the debate focused around the need to revise the Monroe Doctrine itself, that aroused due to new trends in the development of international relations in the Far East and, in particular, because of the increasing competition between the United States and Japan. The author identifies several main approaches to the interpretation of the Monroe Doctrine formulated during the public debate in 1921−1923. It is shown that, despite significant divergences of view, both isolationists and internationalists eventually came to broader interpretations of the Monroe Doctrine, recognizing the need to extend its principles to the entire Asia-Pacific region.

Riki Afrizal, Iwan Kurniawan, Fajar Wahyudi

Perubahan sistem pemasyarakatan ditandai dengan disahkannya Undang-Undang Nomor 22 Tahun 2022 Tentang Pemasyarakatan. Salah satu hal yang diatur adalah mengenai pelayanan tahanan sebagai salah satu fungsi pemasyarakatan. Pengaturan ini tentu saja menarik untuk dianalisis karena selama ini pemasyarakatan hanya identik dengan pembinaan narapidana yang merupakan tahap akhir dalam sistem peradilan pidana. Pelayanan tahanan pada Rutan adalah berkaitan dengan proses peradilan pidana yang sedang berlangsung, karena secara yuridis tanggungjawab penahanan masih pada lembaga penegak hukum yang melakukan penahanan. Tulisan ini bertujuan menganalisis kaitan pengaturan pelayanan tahanan dalam Undang-Undang Pemasyarakatan terhadap sistem peradilan pidana terpadu di Indonesia. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode yuridis normatif dengan pendekatan undang-undang dan konseptual khususnya mengenai sistem pemasyarakatan dan sistem peradilan pidana terpadu. Hasil pembahasan dan analisis menunjukkan bahwa terdapat pengaturan yang tegas dan jelas mengenai penyelenggaraan pelayanan tahanan sebagai fungsi pemasyarakatan. Hal Ini merupakan suatu bentuk kepastian hukum dan sekaligus penegasan keberadaan pemasyarakatan sebagai subsistem peradilan pidana terpadu. Sebagai bagian sistem peradilan pidana, pemasyarakatan tidak hanya bekerja pada akhir dari rangkaian proses peradilan pidana melalui fungsi pembinaan narapidana dan anak pidana, tetapi juga pada saat bekerjanya atau berlangsungnya proses peradilan pidana tersebut.

Karen Zhou, Chenhao Tan

Growing literature has shown that NLP systems may encode social biases; however, the political bias of summarization models remains relatively unknown. In this work, we use an entity replacement method to investigate the portrayal of politicians in automatically generated summaries of news articles. We develop an entity-based computational framework to assess the sensitivities of several extractive and abstractive summarizers to the politicians Donald Trump and Joe Biden. We find consistent differences in these summaries upon entity replacement, such as reduced emphasis of Trump's presence in the context of the same article and a more individualistic representation of Trump with respect to the collective US government (i.e., administration). These summary dissimilarities are most prominent when the entity is heavily featured in the source article. Our characterization provides a foundation for future studies of bias in summarization and for normative discussions on the ideal qualities of automatic summaries.

Dominik Bär, Francesco Pierri, Gianmarco De Francisci Morales et al.

Political advertising on social media has become a central element in election campaigns. However, granular information about political advertising on social media was previously unavailable, thus raising concerns regarding fairness, accountability, and transparency in the electoral process. In this paper, we analyze targeted political advertising on social media via a unique, large-scale dataset of over 80000 political ads from Meta during the 2021 German federal election, with more than 1.1 billion impressions. For each political ad, our dataset records granular information about targeting strategies, spending, and actual impressions. We then study (i) the prevalence of targeted ads across the political spectrum; (ii) the discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences due to algorithmic ad delivery; and (iii) which targeting strategies on social media attain a wide reach at low cost. We find that targeted ads are prevalent across the entire political spectrum. Moreover, there are considerable discrepancies between targeted and actual audiences, and systematic differences in the reach of political ads (in impressions-per-EUR) among parties, where the algorithm favors ads from populists over others.

Tai Le Quy, Gunnar Friege, Eirini Ntoutsi

Ensuring fairness is essential for every education system. Machine learning is increasingly supporting the education system and educational data science (EDS) domain, from decision support to educational activities and learning analytics. However, the machine learning-based decisions can be biased because the algorithms may generate the results based on students' protected attributes such as race or gender. Clustering is an important machine learning technique to explore student data in order to support the decision-maker, as well as support educational activities, such as group assignments. Therefore, ensuring high-quality clustering models along with satisfying fairness constraints are important requirements. This chapter comprehensively surveys clustering models and their fairness in EDS. We especially focus on investigating the fair clustering models applied in educational activities. These models are believed to be practical tools for analyzing students' data and ensuring fairness in EDS.

The Genomic Data Science Community Network, Rosa Alcazar, Maria Alvarez et al.

Over the last 20 years, there has been an explosion of genomic data collected for disease association, functional analyses, and other large-scale discoveries. At the same time, there have been revolutions in cloud computing that enable computational and data science research, while making data accessible to anyone with a web browser and an internet connection. However, students at institutions with limited resources have received relatively little exposure to curricula or professional development opportunities that lead to careers in genomic data science. To broaden participation in genomics research, the scientific community needs to support students, faculty, and administrators at Underserved Institutions (UIs) including Community Colleges, Historically Black Colleges and Universities, Hispanic-Serving Institutions, and Tribal Colleges and Universities in taking advantage of these tools in local educational and research programs. We have formed the Genomic Data Science Community Network (http://www.gdscn.org/) to identify opportunities and support broadening access to cloud-enabled genomic data science. Here, we provide a summary of the priorities for faculty members at UIs, as well as administrators, funders, and R1 researchers to consider as we create a more diverse genomic data science community.

Rushil Anirudh, Rick Archibald, M. Salman Asif et al.

Data science and technology offer transformative tools and methods to science. This review article highlights latest development and progress in the interdisciplinary field of data-driven plasma science (DDPS). A large amount of data and machine learning algorithms go hand in hand. Most plasma data, whether experimental, observational or computational, are generated or collected by machines today. It is now becoming impractical for humans to analyze all the data manually. Therefore, it is imperative to train machines to analyze and interpret (eventually) such data as intelligently as humans but far more efficiently in quantity. Despite the recent impressive progress in applications of data science to plasma science and technology, the emerging field of DDPS is still in its infancy. Fueled by some of the most challenging problems such as fusion energy, plasma processing of materials, and fundamental understanding of the universe through observable plasma phenomena, it is expected that DDPS continues to benefit significantly from the interdisciplinary marriage between plasma science and data science into the foreseeable future.

Nataliia Khoma, Oleksii Kokoriev

This article analyses compliance of the post-Soviet Baltic States with the EU liberal-democratic standards, at both institutional and value levels. The authors prove that fulfilment of the Copenhagen criteria for EU accession did not determine an enhancement of the quality of democracy in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. This study highlights that, in recent years, the Baltic States have entered a phase of stagnation of liberal-democratic transformations and that they need a more active position of the state on institutional reforms and resocialization of citizens to strengthen adherence to the political and legal values that the EU is based on. The article emphasises how the global financial crisis of 2008, the European migration crisis (2015) and the current coronavirus pandemic have all had an impact on the quality of democracy in the Baltic States. The authors focus on the incomplete process of value reforming among the Baltic population against the EU liberal-democratic standards. The article highlights that the post-totalitarian rotation of values in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is slow and faces rejection of European liberal-democratic values to a greater or lesser extent. It underlines the preservation of the totalitarian (Soviet) vestiges of political culture, which contradict the EU paradigm of values and prevent the Baltic States from improving the quality of democracy. It is noted that, in terms of the radicalization level in defending national interests, the Baltic countries take the intermediate position between the Nordic and the V4 countries, particularly Hungary and Poland that develop illiberal democracy patterns.

Marcela Gbúrová

The professional ambition of the study is to present the ethnic-emancipatory and national-political initiatives of Michal Miloslav Hodža, one of the representatives of the Slovak national movement in the revolutionary years of 1848-1849, co-creator of the modern literary Slovak language project and author of Matora – the most extensive poetic work of political content in Slovak literature. the study is divided into four relatively separate parts. The first of them follows the educational path of M. M. Hodža to humanism, national-revivalist consciousness and theoretical reflections on issues of a natiological nature. The second part deals with Hodža’s complicated process of looking for a modern form of the Slovak literary language. In the next part, the national-political activities of M. M. Hodža in the revolutionary years of 1848-1849 are analysed. The last part of the study is a political-science interpretation of the literary work Matora which represents the key life balance of M. M. Hodža implemented outside of public policy.