This study evaluates the predictive performance of four models—Decision Tree, Random Forest, Prophet, and LSTM—in forecasting container freight rates, a key metric for strategic decision-making in the shipping industry. To address data heterogeneity, Min-Max normalization was applied, and the Johansen co-integration test confirmed long-term relationships among the variables, justifying the use of raw data in our analysis. Performance was assessed using MSE, RMSE, NMSE, MAE, MAPE and SMAPE. While both Decision Tree and Random Forest models yielded lower absolute errors compared to LSTM and Prophet, the Decision Tree model demonstrated superior relative accuracy, outperforming Random Forest by approximately 91.8 % on the USWC route, 52.1 % on USEC, 43.5 % on MED, and 22.7 % on NEUR. These findings highlight the robustness of the Decision Tree model for container freight rate forecasting under volatile market conditions.
Acir Alves Coelho Junior , Larysa Cassatti da Silva
Este estudo analisa a cibersegurança e os desafios para o Direito Marítimo e Portuário considerando a evolução tecnológica. O tema é importante devido ao impacto que a tecnologia apresenta para o campo jurídico destes, que desempenham papéis relevantes para o comércio global. Com a crescente digitalização, as operações ficam vulneráveis a ataques cibernéticos, o que afeta a segurança operacional, administrativa e pessoal. A metodologia utilizada será qualitativa, do tipo bibliográfico, sendo dedutivo com natureza descritiva e exploratória. Apesar dos avanços que as legislações deram no que se refere à cibersegurança, ainda há questões que devem ser levadas em consideração, devido à sua importância global. No que se se refere à responsabilidade civil apesar de não ser encontrado com facilidade no ramo do Direito portuário a resposta sobre, e sim no marítimo, se deduz que ambos possuem responsabilidade objetiva, nos casos que violar as medidas de segurança, deflagrando a proteção de dados do arts. 42 e 44 da LGPD, assim como Convenção Internacional para Salvaguarda da Vida Humana no Mar (SOLAS) que as demais disposições devem obrigatoriamente seguir.
Background: The adoption of e-procurement is globally recognised as a key driver of procurement modernisation, enhancing efficiency, transparency and cost-effectiveness. South Africa has experienced delays in fully embracing e-procurement, especially within government departments provincially. The e-procurement is influenced by reliance on traditional administrative practices, limited government support and low technology investment.
Objectives: This study aimed to investigate the factors affecting the adoption of e-procurement systems in the Mpumalanga Treasury.
Method: This study used a quantitative approach with a sample size of 35 staff from the information and communication technology, and Finance departments. The random sampling method was adopted, where a questionnaire survey was used to collect data, and analysed using the SPSS software.
Results: The Mpumalanga Treasury has not yet adopted e-procurement. A factor such as ICT infrastructure has a strong influence on management support to implement the e-procurement. To effectively execute this adoption, the treasury must place a strong emphasis on the availability of essential infrastructures.
Conclusion: The implementation of e-procurement would result in substantial advantages, particularly cost savings, increased productivity, and improvement in the supply chain principles, such as transparency, fairness, and value for money. E-procurement is frequently viewed as a solution to inefficiencies and cost overruns in conventional procurement processes because it automates and tracks operations with minimum human interaction.
Contribution: This study contributes to the practical importance of prioritising the implementation of digitalisation in the public sector. The findings suggest, actionable insights for policymakers and procurement managers within the Mpumalanga Treasury to address the specific challenges hindering the adoption of e-procurement.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Este artigo investiga o papel do planejamento espacial marinho na promoção do desenvolvimento sustentável da economia azul e da marinha mercante no Brasil. A economia azul, que engloba atividades econômicas relacionadas aos oceanos e mares, apresenta vasto potencial para impulsionar o crescimento econômico do país. No entanto, sua exploração requer uma abordagem integrada e coordenada para garantir a sustentabilidade dos recursos marinhos. Inicialmente, o estudo contextualiza o tema, destacando a importância dos oceanos e mares para o Brasil, tanto em termos econômicos quanto ambientais. Em seguida, explora-se o objetivo do estudo, que é analisar as oportunidades e desafios do planejamento espacial marinho na promoção da economia azul e da marinha mercante. A partir de uma revisão da literatura e análise de casos de estudo práticos, são identificadas as principais definições, conceitos e diretrizes do planejamento espacial marinho, bem como sua relevância para o contexto brasileiro. São discutidas as contribuições da economia azul para o desenvolvimento econômico do Brasil, incluindo a exploração de recursos naturais, o turismo costeiro e marinho, e a pesquisa científica e tecnológica. Por outro lado, são abordados os desafios enfrentados no planejamento espacial marinho, como a conciliação de interesses divergentes, a falta de dados e informações detalhadas, e a capacidade institucional limitada. No entanto, são destacadas as oportunidades de cooperação internacional e inovação tecnológica para superar esses desafios. Por fim, a monografia conclui que o planejamento espacial marinho desempenha um papel fundamental na promoção do desenvolvimento sustentável da economia azul e da marinha mercante no Brasil. Para isso, são necessários investimentos em pesquisa, fortalecimento da governança dos recursos marinhos e promoção da cooperação internacional.
Caleb Danladi, Sarah Tuck, Panagiotis Tziogkidis
et al.
Abstract Despite the extensive research on container port efficiency, the impact of port organizational reforms on productivity and efficiency in lower-middle-income countries remains underexplored, with most studies focusing on developed nations or specific regions. This study addresses this gap. It aims to analyse the productivity changes in container ports within world-wide lower-middle-income countries. The Malmquist Productivity Index, estimated using data envelopment analysis (DEA), was applied to a balanced panel of 39 container ports from 2001 to 2012 being a period that covers substantial port organisational reforms in the target population. The findings reveal an average productivity growth rate of 1.9% among the sample ports during the study period. Decomposition of the Malmquist Index shows that this growth is primarily driven by improvements in technical efficiency, with pure efficiency change emerging as the main driver. These insights are valuable for guiding strategic decision-making to enhance port competitiveness, particularly in lower-middle-income countries.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Background: In South Africa, the provision of transport services for learners is crucial for educational access. Although there are policies and legislation designed to ensure the safety and security of learners, numerous problems persist within scholar transport in South Africa.
Objectives: The purpose of this study is to understand the provision of scholar transport infrastructure and services in South Africa.
Method: This study employed a comprehensive desktop review methodology to scrutinise both scientific and non-academic (grey) literature, aiming to elucidate the complexities surrounding scholar transport in South Africa.
Results: The study found widespread reports of reckless driving, unroadworthy vehicles, inappropriate vehicles and traffic accidents involving scholar transport. In addition to safety concerns, the study revealed issues of crime, corruption and mismanagement of funds for scholar transport. These issues often leave disadvantaged learners stranded, vulnerable or worse, dead.
Conclusion: The study reveals a complex interplay between policy aspirations and on-the-ground realities, marked by inadequacies in legislation, compliance and enforcement. There is a gap between policy frameworks and their implementation, highlighting a need for a holistic approach to address these challenges.
Contribution: This article contributes to the scholarly understanding of transport dynamics in educational access and the geographies of South African children, offering insights into the logistical, safety and security challenges inherent in scholar transport.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Philipp M. Nettesheim, Peter Burggräf, Fabian Steinberg
Background: Supply chain optimisation is critical for companies in today’s globalised world. Efficient supply chains ensure product quality and freshness in the food industry. For products like beer, efficiency extends beyond transportation and includes the management of logistics containers such as returnable kegs.
Objectives: This study investigated the impact of tracking logistics data on the efficiency of container logistics in a small regional brewery. The focus was reducing fleet size, processing times and pick-up distances.
Method: A simulation of a small brewery was used to analyse the impact of tracking logistics data. The study examined how kegs equipped with real-time tracking technology could improve logistics operations.
Results: The simulation showed that tracking logistics data significantly improved logistics processes. It led to a reduction in the fleet size, turnaround times and pick-up distances for empty kegs. These improvements were attributed to better resource allocation and more efficient management of reusable containers.
Conclusion: The study showed that smart kegs could reduce logistical inefficiencies in the brewing industry. The use of smart technologies in container logistics improves operational efficiency and sustainability.
Contribution: This research provides insights into how smart technologies can transform traditional logistics models. The results suggest that smart containers can revolutionise supply chains with efficient resource allocation, real-time tracking and automation. This shift towards smart logistics aligns with the broader adoption of the Industrial Internet of Things, offering a blueprint for future innovations in supply chain management. The implications extend beyond brewing, highlighting the potential for greater sustainability and a positive reduction in environmental impact in global supply chains.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Olav Loennechen, Kjetil Fagerholt, Benjamin Lagemann
et al.
This paper studies the maritime fleet composition problem with uncertain future fuel and carbon prices under the restriction of complying with future greenhouse gas (GHG) emission restrictions. We propose a two-stage stochastic programming model that can be adapted to two different variants of this problem. The first variant considers the Maritime Fleet Renewal Problem where there is an existing initial fleet to be renewed through scrapping and acquisitions, as well as retrofitting of ships in the current fleet. The second variant considers the Maritime Fleet Size and Mix Problem, where also the initial fleet must be determined. When applying the model to a fleet of Supramax bulk carriers as a case study, we find that LNG- and methanol-based power systems are favorable initial choices. Two different scenario sets, with 50% and 90% reduction restrictions by 2045, are investigated. Depending on the ambition level, retrofits towards ammonia can be cost-effective.
This study discusses the Process of Shipping Goods at PT. XYZ Logistics Bekasi. The research method uses the observation method and the library method. Based on the results of observations or observations made by researchers in the process of sending goods at PT. XYZ Logistics Bekasi, researchers found obstacles including a shortage of goods sent, damage to car engines so that shipments were delayed and customers were not served on time, and the solution that researchers proposed to overcome obstacles in the problem of shipping goods was that proper delivery vehicle facilities were needed. and adding operational vehicles for delivery of goods so that there are no delays in the delivery of goods, checking the engine before the truck carries out the process of loading goods so that the process of sending goods can run well, cooperation and accuracy are needed for warehouse employees in checking orders when loading goods so that there is no shortage or excess of goods which makes the outlet that ordered suffer losses because they have to re-order the goods.
David Rottenegger, Marcel Öfele, Hans-Martin Braun
et al.
Background: The current coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has stressed why a change towards resilient, robust and sustainable supply chains is more imperative than ever. This is especially true for supply chains of perishable foods, where issues such as the bullwhip effect cause not only economic but also environmental damage.
Objectives: The key objectives of this study are to gain a deeper insight into correlations regarding the causes of the bullwhip effect and to see how a sinusoidal stimulus is affecting the generation of food waste.
Method: A simplified beef food chain was modelled in Tecnomatix Plant Simulation®. As the bullwhip effect consists of a simplified parameterisation of an excitation duration (period length) and its height (amplitude), these two variables were used to generate a sinusoidal stimulus. The simulation results were statistically verified and checked for commonalities and differences with the already established scientific knowledge.
Results: While the expected higher sensitivity of the front links of the supply chain to waste generation can be confirmed, the results of a long stimulation period suggest that the negative effects of the bullwhip effect do not increase indefinitely.
Conclusion: The analysis of the results has shown that previous theories can be transferred, but that the variation of the variables entails new insights for the interdependencies of the amplitude and period length and their influence on the output variable waste.
Contribution: The study contributes to a more holistic understanding of the bullwhip effect and, in particular, its implications within a perishable food supply chain.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Introduction. The scheduling a transportation route of overweight and oversize goods by road is necessary to perform taken into account road traffic safety and security of artificial engineering structures (bridges, railway crossing and others). The monitoring and control of these procedures are performed by a licensing system in Russia. During the delivery a driver must carry out the transportation of such cargo within the approved route that is specified in a particular paper (authorization) located in the vehicle. Issues appear mostly during first shipment organization and when the route is outside the permanent vehicles location, when road network and bypass schemes are not familiar for the driver and the current GPS-systems bases do not include formal designations of roads according to state register. The authors suppose digital technologies implementation has to facilitate easier abnormal load shipments violations-free sufficiently.The Materials and methods. A transportation organisation model of abnormal loads by BPMN notation has been developed. The key control points have been determined by the authors on the base of their own experience.The results. An information model of forming and transmitting to the carrier authorization to transport abnormal load within the approved route has been developed. In the authorization the link to the cartographic resource is inserted in one of the QR-code field. Such approach makes possible to identify approved route clearly and unambiguously.Uniqueness and practical meaning. The information model uniqueness consists of the transmission way of approves route to the customer – not the sequence of transit localities, but the cartographic resource. The practical implementation of such decision is addressed to help a carrier (a driver) to perform the abnormal load transportation strictly within the approved route.
The inventory routing problem arises when inventory management and vehicle routing decisions are integrated instead of treated as separate problems. The technique of combining such decisions could lead to solutions that are better than merging the optimal solutions of the smaller subproblems. Hence, the problem is prominent and has been the focus of extensive research in recent years. When the products considered in such a problem are perishable, the importance is intensified; the current paper presents a literature review of the inventory routing problem for perishable products. This review classifies papers according to five attributes, namely, the number of products, the type of product (including the types of product perishability and types of perishable products), the type of demand, the number of objective functions, and the solution approach. A comprehensive analysis is performed based on these five attributes. Finally, based on 89 relevant reviewed papers, directions for future research on the perishable inventory routing problem are presented.
Meditya Wasesa, Fakhri I. Ramadhan, Arfenia Nita
et al.
Truck appointment systems facilitate coordination between container terminals and drayage trucks in container pick-up operation reservation. However, in many cases, trucks with a reservation do not arrive at the scheduled appointment. As the number of no-shows increases, the container terminal’s productivity will plummet, and drayage trucks that failed to get reservations will lose their opportunity to get service. This research proposes an overbooking reservation mechanism (ORM) to alleviate the negative impact of these no-shows. This research scrutinizes the detailed process mapping of the existing reservation mechanism, proposes an ORM, and conducts agent-based simulations to evaluate the ORM's performance against the regular and go-show reservation mechanisms at different levels of no-shows and working occupancies. The application of an ORM can improve productivity and service levels while minimizing such negative externalities as queue length, overtime, and greenhouse gas emissions. High overtime intensities only appear when the container terminal's workload is exceptionally high, at 200% of maximum capacity, with a low level of no-shows. Even in exceptionally high demand conditions, the drayage trucks wait only up to 16 min before receiving service.
The case describes the journey of TCS as it became Pakistan’s leading logistics service provider. It highlights how and when TCS acquired different logistics and other value-adding capabilities and how these capabilities, in turn, complimented the diverse logistics services that TCS offered to a wide variety of businesses. TCS had been offering a top-notch Express and Logistics service around Pakistan for 30 years. TCS started as a company providing secure distribution of letters and packages. Customers perceived TCS as a shipping solution provider for all their goods transportation needs which included parcels, documents, E-commerce products and even their groceries. Table 1 of the case study highlights that TCS had taken up some unique and new initiatives. TCS handled four main clientele areas: Corporate, Consumer, International and E-commerce. For consumer wing, TCS oversaw bookings of documents and parcels at the express centres, door-to-door containerized shipments, domestic and international air ticketing, visa application drop box facility for various countries and financial services in the form of insurance plans. On the corporate side, TCS provided warehousing and distribution, digital printing and bulk mail solutions. International and e-commerce both catered consumer and corporate segments. Over the last decade, TCS had established a warehousing and distribution wing and a mail management and printing facility. Other ventures and services that TCS offered were Visatronix, Hazir, Home Movers, E-COM, TCS Aviation, Mail Management System, Warehouse and Distribution, Intiana, Sentiments express and Octra. The case focusses on the decision of whether or not to run an ambitious new logistics service, that is, Hazir SubKuch (HSK), meant to deliver anything non-prohibited that a customer wanted, on a crowdsourcing model. In the proposed crowdsourcing model, after training and evaluation, anyone could assume the role of a customer service provider by connecting to the system remotely. Similarly, pickup and delivery jobs could be performed under an Uber-like model by anyone who owned a ride and had smartphone connectivity. The service was a brainchild of the new CEO, hired by the founder and chairman as part of the new management team to bring a fresh dynamism in the company.
A logistic system is a certain integrity of many interdependent logistic elements: manufacturers of products, raw materials, equipment; transport and warehouse complexes; terminal networks; distribution centers; retail network; transport. It is transport that can be called one of the most essential elements of any logistics system. Transport takes an active part in all stages of logistics - supply, production, distribution - providing uninterrupted and high-quality service for the movement of goods. The choice of transport adequate to the existing conditions will unambiguously lead to an increase in the economic efficiency of the functioning of the entire logistics system. The article discusses the main types of transport used to move material flows in logistics: railway; automobile; air; nautical; river (internal water); pipeline. The main advantages and disadvantages of each type of transport are indicated. The main factors influencing the choice of transport in the logistics system are analyzed, including: the volume of supplies of products; frequency of shipments; material flow route; set delivery times; the limit of funds for the implementation of this operation; safety of movement (safety of cargo), etc. All factors affecting the choice of transport in logistics are divided into objective and subjective. The need for the use (participation) of road transport in all processes of delivery of goods to the destination in the logistics system has been established. The influence of a high-quality choice of transport on the effective economic activity of the entire logistics system as a whole is shown by reducing the costs of moving, reloading goods, reducing the costs of warehouse complexes by reducing the shelf life of products and, accordingly, reducing warehouse space.
Jacqueline Karlsson, Helena Melin, Kevin Cullinane
Abstract The objective is to forecast the impact of potential Brexit scenarios on the export volume of passenger cars from Germany to the UK. Based on Germany’s total export volume of passenger cars, a double-logarithmic gravity model is specified and estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) regression. The final estimated model has strong explanatory power, with all variables significant at the 5% level. This is used for forecasting future export volumes under different Brexit scenarios. Diagnostic tests suggest that the model is robust and efficient. All tested Brexit scenarios are found to negatively impact passenger cars export volumes from Germany to the UK. The level of tariffs is found to have the most significant effect, but lower GDP due to Brexit is forecast to offset the benefits of trading with lower tariffs. The most pessimistic scenario for 2030 forecasts is a reduction of 15.4% compared to the ‘no Brexit’ base-case scenario.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Background: The importance of South African small businesses, especially retailers, in improving communities’ standards of living necessitates sound business strategies to survive and remain competitive. Selecting appropriate business strategies is cardinal for the sustainable development and growth of all types of businesses, including small businesses. The supply chain strategy defines how operations in the supply chain will support the overall competitive strategy and is orientated to promote either responsiveness or cost-efficiency. It is imperative that all inventory decisions be aligned with the orientation of the selected supply chain strategy.
Objectives: The aim of this article was firstly to determine how small retailers operating within the boundaries of Soweto, a township in Gauteng, South Africa, manage their inventory decisions considering the orientation of the supply chain strategy; and secondly, to investigate whether retail industries differ in terms of inventory decisions.
Method: A survey was conducted among 650 formal, independent small businesses operating within Soweto of which 556 were classified as retailers based on the Standard Industrial Classification. Structured interviewer-completed questionnaires were used to obtain quantitative data from owners or managers. Both descriptive and inferential analyses were performed to determine the orientation of the retailers’ supply chain strategy based on their inventory decisions relating to the average rate of purchasing inventory, the amount of inventory purchased, as well as the quality and variety of products offered to customers. Five hypotheses were formulated to determine whether a difference exists between six industry groups with regard to the management of inventory.
Results: It was established that small township retailers predominantly manage their inventory decisions responsively. It was also concluded that differences exist in terms of how small township retailers manage their inventory based on the industry in which they operate. The results showed that retail hardware stores are focused on making inventory decisions more cost-efficiently than the other industry groups, whereas retail general stores are focused on making inventory decisions more responsively than the other industry groups.
Conclusion: The owners or managers of small township retailers need to be educated in terms of inventory management decisions. This article can be used as an educational platform to show how small township retailers can identify the aligned inventory decisions for supporting a selected supply chain strategy orientation. Generally, small township retailers may maintain their competitive advantage if they align all business strategies to promote responsiveness. Since the industry in which small retailers operate influences inventory management decisions in terms of responsiveness and cost-efficiency, owners or managers must consider the specific industry in which they operate before making such decisions.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications
Background: The components of national freight logistics costs are still optimised in isolation, instead of systemic optimisation between logistics and other supply chain elements. The risk is the tragedy of the commons effect, where a positive return for economic activities in isolation could lead to a negative collective result in the long-term. Therefore, there is a need to elevate the systemic view of logistics to the macroeconomic realm.
Objectives: The primary objective of this study was to further the macrologistics discipline through its formal definition and to develop an instrumentation construct to support macroeconomic trade-off analysis. The secondary objective was to apply instrumentation outputs to national-level logistics challenges.
Method: A review of macrologistics was conducted, followed by a discussion on macrologistics instrumentation, which is twofold: a freight-flow model and a related logistics costs model. A disaggregated national input–output table was developed, followed by gravity modelling, to determine freight flows. Logistics cost calculations relate these flows to the costs of fulfilling associated logistics functions.
Results: This review contributes to the developing theory of macrologistics, while the instrumentation outputs improve the systemic understanding of the national freight-flow landscape, enabling informed debate and prioritisation analysis. This systemic view enabled macrologistics proposals to address South Africa’s logistics challenges, including proposals regarding a domestic intermodal strategy externality cost internalisation; international trade facilitation; infrastructure investments; and rail branch line revitalisation.
Conclusion: The elevation of logistics to the macroeconomic realm will enable the management of logistics as a national production factor, thereby contributing to reducing national freight logistics costs and improving national competitiveness.
Shipment of goods. Delivery of goods, Transportation and communications