В статье с позиций исследователя миграции рассмотрены проблемы качества данных последней Всероссийской переписи населения (ВПН-2020), фактически проведенной в конце 2021 г. Сделан вывод, что из-за критически больших совокупностей населения с неуточненными характеристиками (страна рождения, продолжительность проживания в месте постоянного жительства, гражданство) изучать итоги долгосрочной миграции по агрегированным данным ВПН-2020 нельзя. Так же проблематично исследовать и другие структуры населения из-за беспрецедентно большого числа не указавших уровень образования, семейное положение, число рожденных женщиной детей и др. Автор полемизирует с аргументами представителей Росстата, которые они приводили после публикации итогов переписи, и приводит контраргументы. В том числе рассматривается проблема использования административных источников данных о населении, качество которых было явно недостаточным для нужд переписи, проблема пропусков ответов при самозаполнении переписного листа онлайн, при котором не была предусмотрена невозможность отправки незаполненной анкеты и так далее. Отмечается, что вопросы качества данных, которые должны быть приоритетом для переписи, в ходе подготовки и ее проведения уступали место обсуждению новых технологий и альтернативных источников данных. Автор приводит примеры ряда стран, также проводивших в условиях пандемии COVID-19 переписи и национальные обследования населения. Отмечается, что после этого общество было в деталях проинформировано о наличии (или отсутствии) проблем, о работе национального статистического агентства по их решению вплоть до признания данных непригодными для использования. Один из главных выводов статьи заключается в необходимости открытого обсуждения с пользователями всего комплекса сложностей, сопряженных с проведением последней переписи, с анализом их причин и возможных путей преодоления. Замалчивание проблем, быстрое исчезновение из информационного поля упоминаний о спорном качестве переписи фактически означают признание ее итогов надежными. Многие отечественные авторы уже активно работают с полученными данными, не обращая внимания на огромные доли населения с неуказанными характеристиками. В свете принятия нового плана статработ, в котором указано, что перепись 2030 г. в еще большей мере будет опираться на альтернативные источники, автор считает критическое осмысление и открытое обсуждение уроков последней переписи остро необходимым, чтобы избежать повторений в будущем.
Aims: To explore the impact of transitional and intermediate stages on physical, mental, and social health. Methodology: A descriptive cross-sectional approach was used. There was no analysis carried whatsoever. Results: Life changes such as marriage, divorce, and retirement affect physical health in different ways, influenced by factors such as marital satisfaction and stress management. Divorce can cause emotional distress, and access to healthcare is critical to managing stress. Retirement can reduce stress but can lead to health risks if it leads to social isolation. Mental health is affected at all stages of life, from academic stress in early adulthood to mid-life crises in middle age and existential rumination in later life. Social determinants of health, such as education, marriage decisions, and career change, are influenced by socioeconomic status, income, and access to health care. Aging people are more affected by income, health care, and support systems. Global events can disrupt access to employment and healthcare, emphasising the interplay of social determinants and life changes. In 2023, the world's population reaches 8.045 billion, of which 25% are aged 0-14 years, 65% are aged 15-64 years and 10% are aged 65+. This age distribution presents challenges and opportunities, requiring investment in education, health and social services for young people, support for the working-age population, and specialised care and resources for older people. Scientific Novelty: Exploring the dynamics of health within a continuum of numerous transitional and intermediate stages unveils a groundbreaking scientific frontier. Conclusion: Life transitions impact health, necessitating informed choices and support. Mental health education is vital for coping. Social determinants matter, as do diverse age demographics, requiring tailored policies for well-being.
The article examines marriage in the Podlasie Catholic parish of Lapy from 1919–1939. It considers the occupations of the grooms, the age at which the couples married and the seasonality (monthly and weekly) of marriages. The source for the article was the Łapy parish registers kept at the Registry Office in Łapy. The registers of neighboring parishes were also used for analysis and then the results were compared with the immediate neighborhood. The article shows that when founding a new family, one of the main factors, together with the time of year and week, was the man’s occupation.
History of Poland, Demography. Population. Vital events
Abstract The Gender Revolution Theory forecasts a rise in fertility as gender equality increases and permeates the private sphere. However, empirical evidence across different societies has not always been conclusive, which suggests further research on the relationship between gender equality and fertility is needed. This research aims to assess the impact of the distribution of housework and childcare within the couple on one-child mothers’ fertility intentions in Spain. The educational expansion in recent decades has facilitated women’s mass entry into the workforce in this country. Nevertheless, the distribution of unpaid labour remains quite gendered and public support for families is scarce, making family/work balance challenging, especially for women. Using data from the 2018 Spanish Fertility Survey, the results suggest that when the distribution of housework is highly unbalanced between mothers and fathers, women are less likely to intend to have a second child. In contrast, unequal childcare workload does not substantially impact their intention to have a second child. Furthermore, whereas women’s satisfaction with the distribution of housework and childcare does not seem to moderate the effect of distribution, their education level slightly does. University-educated women are more likely to revise their fertility intentions downwards when the distribution is highly unequal.
Roufeida Aibeche, Ahmed Bousmaha, Rosa Maria Arce Ruiz
Evaluating territorial attractiveness can result in several interpretations due to the multidimensional nature of the concept, starting from economy and expanding into many fi elds such as geography and social studies, in this paper, we attempt to analyze the existing economic-urban dilemma in the north-east region of Algeria by evaluating the attractiveness of its two national metropolises as separate territorial units.
Th e main objective of the study was to explore the possibility of evaluating the three facets of attractiveness simultaneously in a bipolar cities system. Our method is not in itself new; it has been used as a model for assessment in many other regions of the developing world suff ering from lack of data and economic-urban issues, but this is the fi rst time it has been used to assess attractiveness.
Th is multi-factorial model with synthetic indicators will help us to have a general view of the issue and to defi ne strengths and weaknesses of both territorial units. However, the limits of this methodology will be the percentage uncertainty that lies in the subjectivity of the weighting step performed by experts.
Dear Editor, Haemophilia B (HB) is a rare inherited bleeding disorder resulting from mutations in the F9 gene encoding clotting factor IX (FIX) responsible for blood clotting. Severe HB is characterized by recurrent and spontaneous bleeding typically into joints, muscles, and soft tissues. Delays in treatmentmay lead to crippling arthropathy, and bleeding into vital organs could be life-threatening.1 The current status of patients with HB in China is poorly understood. This letter reports a real-world cohort of HB patients in China with a focus on their demographic profiles, clinical characteristics, and treatment strategies. We included all 3782 patients with a confirmed diagnosis of HB registered in the Haemophilia Treatment Centre Collaboration Network of China (HTCCNC) Registry from January 1, 2007 to March 25, 2021(data cutoff date). Demographics, clinical characteristics, and management were obtained through electronic medical records from the contributing hospitals. Paediatric patients (children) are defined as patients<18 years age at the time of data cutoff, adults being ≥18 years. Joint bleeding is defined as any symptom of the elbow, knee, or ankle requiring infusion of clotting factors. Joint deformity is defined as angulation and/or displacement of articulating bones. All statistical analyses were conducted using SPSS software version 26.0 (SPSS Inc., Chicago, IL, USA). The study was approved by the hospital-based ethic committee. The demographic characteristics of the studied population are shown in Table 1. All but two patients are male. Of the two female patient, one was 11 years old with severe haemophilia and another 26 years old with mild haemophilia. Paediatric patients accounted for 43.5%.Aclear family historywas reported in27.1% (n=1024) patients. Of these 3258 patients with records of disease severity, 744 were severe (FIX:C<1%), 1945 were moderate (FIX:C 1–5%), and 569 were mild (FIX:C 5–40%). As shown in Table 2, among the 1443 patients with records showing diagnostic delay (age at diagnosis minus age at first bleeding symptom), the mean (±SD) delay was 2.46 (±7.03) years for all patients, 2.13 (±5.72) years for severe, 2.61 (±7.37) years for moderate, 3.15 (±8.94) years for mild patients; and 3.91 (±8.99) years for all adults, .58 (±1.70) years for all children. Of the 1266 patients with records allowing for calculation of delays in initial treatment (age at first treatment minus age at first bleeding symptom), the mean (±SD) delay was 3.24 (±7.78) years for all HB patients, 3.17 (±6.71) for the severe, 3.13 (±7.69) for moderate, 4.00 (±10.18) for mild patients; and 5.01 (±9.67) years for all adults, and .74 (±1.82) years for all children. Bleeding events and deformities were most common in the knees, followed by the ankles and elbows. Joint bleeding events were recorded in 880 (71.7%) patients at time of registration with the mean (±SD) number of different joints having had bleeding being 4.31 (±3.08) for the total HB population, 4.84 (±3.08) for the severe, 4.28 (±3.05) for the moderate, 2.97 (±2.19) for themild patients; and 4.81 (±3.20) for all adults, and 3.43 (±2.65) for all children. The mean (±SD) annual joint bleeding frequency for all 214 patientswith informationwas 16.53 (±22.03), being 19.72 (±23.50) for adult patients, and 10.75 (±17.81) for paediatric patients. In addition, 526 (42.9%) patients had deformed joints, mean (±SD) number being2.44 (±1.87) for allHBpatients, 2.63 (±1.88) for the severe, 2.38 (±1.95) for themoderate, 2.22 (±1.60) for themild patients. The number of deformed jointswas 2.59 (±1.96) for all adults, and 1.75 (±1.22) for all children. Among 823 patients with treatment information, most (n = 702 patients, 85.3%) received on-demand therapy, of whom 17% (n = 121) patients received treatment only for severe bleeding and 10.4% (n = 73) patients received on-demand with periodic prophylaxis. Only 89 (10.8%) patients received prophylaxis treatment (including primary, secondary, and tertiary prophylaxis), 58 (65.2%) of whom children. Thirty-two (3.9%) patients received no treatment. FIX Inhibitor information was available in 1101 patients. Inhibitors were present in 26 (2.4%), absent in 450 (40.9%) patients and unknown for the remaining patients. Of the 26 HB patients with inhibitors, 21 had severe and five hadmoderate disease. The HTCCNC established in 2004 has made important achievement in promoting care of haemophilia in China, and in haemophilia information registration.2 Our study is significant in that it is the first population-based nationwide study of the Chinese HB population. The number of patients with HB registered at the HTCCNC network was only 3782, much lower than the estimated 6000–7000 based on the prevalence according to WFH.3 Understanding the prevalence of HB in China is important for us to plan future haemophilia care. The data will facilitate our development of more efforts to improve the awareness of haemophilia among our health careworkers particularly to recognize the disease, tomake early diagnosis and to initiate treatment as early as possible. It is notable that the number of patients withmoderate haemophilia in this study was more than twice that of severe haemophilia, and that the bleeding phenotype of both groups were similar suggesting some of the moderate patients actually had severe haemophilia. The factor levels were done at local laboratories and not in a central lab and may
The article shows how political, economic, environmental and other events, phenomena and processes (external factors) lead to sharp changes in the age structure of the population of the regions of Russia, creating structural waves, that is, steep changes in population by age. It is revealed how various components of the demographic balance (internal factors) in dynamics affect the perturbation and smoothing of age-related structural waves. Taking into account the experience of previous studies and on the basis of a large array of empirical data, the use of two generalizing meters of demographic structural waves of the regions of the Russian Federation is justified. The first indicator is the coefficient of unevenness of th7e age structure of the population regarding the structure of the calculated series of "Numbers living in a given age interval". The second indicator is a combination of two coefficients of structural differences (shifts) used in practice, A. Szalai and K. Gatev. The results of a comparative analysis of structural demographic waves in all regions of Russia for the last year before the start of the pandemic in 2019 are reflected. All regions of Russia are ranked according to the proposed coefficients of unevenness. Fourmain groups of territories have been identified from the regions according to the degree of unevenness of the age structure of the population. The main factors that caused this unevenness are revealed. The task of smoothing the structural demographic waves in the young population (0-45 years old) by building and implementing a time-emphasized and regionally accentuated concept of demographic policy in the field of fertility, interregional and international migration has been substantiated. This concept should be coordinated with the strategy of Russia's demographic development.
Владимир Александрович Борисов, Александр Борисович Синельников, Владимир Николаевич Архангельский
В статье представлены результаты опроса экспертов, проведенного в январе-феврале 1996 г. с целью выявления мнений специалистов по ряду принципиальных вопросов, касающихся контроля рождаемости в России. Данное исследование было частью исследовательского проекта «Планирование семьи и политика общественного здравоохранения в России: переход от аборта к контрацепции в меняющемся обществе», выполнявшегося Институтом международных исследований семьи (Москва) в 1995-1997 гг. Всего было опрошено 89 экспертов, представлявших научные круги исследователей из различных областей знания (география, демография, история, психология, медицина, философия, экономика), организаторов здравоохранения и практикующих врачей, депутатов Государственной думы, представителей федеральных и региональных органов исполнительной власти и священников. Программа опроса охватывала вопросы легитимности и моральной приемлемости аборта, оценку действующего законодательства об искусственном прерывании беременности, оценку допустимости людьми регулирования репродуктивной функции и наиболее приемлемых способов контроля рождаемости в контексте тенденций рождаемости в стране, оценку деятельности общественных организаций, выступающих за ограничение и запрещение аборта по желанию женщин и возможных последствий изменения законодательства по отношению к аборту и планированию семьи. Подавляющее большинство опрошенных экспертов поддержали безусловное право женщин решать судьбу своей беременности. Законодательный запрет абортов и ограничение права женщин на прерывание беременности по их желанию, по мнению экспертов, не решил бы проблемы низкой рождаемости и мог бы иметь только отрицательные последствия с точки зрения повышения уровня криминогенности в стране и ухудшения состояния здоровья женского населения. Спустя четверть века вопросы, затронутые в исследовании середины 1990-х, остаются по-прежнему актуальными.
A. Santos-Lozada, Matt Kaneshiro, C. McCarter
et al.
In September 2017, Hurricane Maria made landfall on Puerto Rico causing 102 billion worth of damages, demolishing the electric grid and severely affecting essential daily services. Disaster recovery continues as of the onset of the second half of 2020. Our research investigates whether the postdisaster population mobility was greater than the long-term out-migration that has followed the economic recession. This paper makes use of longitudinal demographic and economic data spanning Hurricane Maria to give a long-term view of population change in Puerto Rico. First, we examine population and employment trends in relation to hurricanes and significant economic events and find that population change is more responsive to employment shocks than hurricane events. Second, we examine air passenger travel data to estimate net migration between 2010 and 2018. The data reveal a sharp spike in out-migration following the hurricanes as well as elevated in-migration in the first half of 2018. In short, the evidence presented suggests that the struggling economy is the main cause of net out-migration from Puerto Rico, while out-migration in response to the hurricane-related destruction is mostly temporary. Consequently, plans for Puerto Rico’s recovery should focus on stimulating the economy.
BACKGROUND A more accurate and simpler scoring systems for early risk stratification of acute myocardial infarction at admission can accelerate and improve decision-making. AIM To develop and validate a simple physiological prognostic scoring system for early risk stratification in patients with acute myocardial infarction. METHODS Easily accessible physiological vital signs and demographic characteristics of patients with acute myocardial infarction at the time of presentation in the multicentre Retrospective Evaluation of Acute Chest Pain study were used to develop a multivariate logistic regression model predicting 12 and 24-month mortality. The study population consisted of 2619 patients from seven hospitals and was divided into a 70% sample for model derivation and a 30% sample for model validation. A nomogram was created to enable prospective risk stratification for clinical care. RESULTS The simple physiological prognostic scoring system consisted of age, heart rate, body mass index and Killip class. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of the simple physiological prognostic scoring system was superior to that of several risk scoring systems in clinical use. Net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement and decision curve analysis of the derivation set also revealed superior performance to the Global Registry of Acute Coronary Events score, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good calibration for predicting mortality in patient with acute myocardial infarction in the validation set (P=0.612). CONCLUSION This simple physiological prognostic scoring system may be a useful risk stratification tool for early assessment of patients with acute myocardial infarction.
Louise Marryat, Rachael Wood, Anne Whittaker
et al.
Background with rationale
Children born to opioid-dependent mothers are at a developmental disadvantage from pre-birth. They are additionally affected by the mother’s compromised ability to recognise and respond to the infant’s cues. Development is often compounded by environmental factors. Research to date has primarily focused on early infancy and small, clinical samples. This group is difficult to follow-up using traditional methods due to chaotic home environments, housing instability and parent-child separation. The use of administrative data circumnavigates such difficulties, allowing follow-up of children over longer periods, even when removed from the birth parent.
Main Aim
This paper will describe the complex creation of a cohort of children born to opioid-dependent women, using administrative data. It will also describe early results about pregnancy and neonatal outcomes.
Methods/Approach
Data were pooled from women who gave birth between 2007 and 2017 using five datasets (c.5,000 women): women who were recorded as using heroin, street methadone or opioid substitution therapy (OST) on the Drugs Misuse Database, or on OST prescription records; women admitted to hospital, or psychiatric care, for an opioid related reason; and/or women whose children were recorded as having Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome (NAS). Data on children’s neonatal outcomes will be described, including birth weight and gestation, congenital abnormalities, neonatal death and NAS treatment. Models will be fitted to investigate the associations between possible teratogenicity of prenatal opioids and developmental outcomes.
Results
The development of this cohort using administrative data sources has been complex, requiring five different datasets to ensure all women of interest are captured. Descriptive results on outcomes will be available in the Autumn.
Conclusion
This administrative data study demonstrates the value of using linked data sources to enhance our knowledge of the trajectories of this vulnerable group of children, and the additional support that they, and their carers, may require.
The East Java Province has successfully overcome the incidences of malnutrition. In 2015, the number of malnutrition cases was 6,745 (1.8 percent), which was lower than the targets of MDGs (15.0 percent) and the Strategic Plans of the Ministry of Health of the Republic of Indonesia (15.0 percent). However, according to National data (Dinkes, 2015), East Java was the second largest province with the highest cases of child malnutrition after the East Nusa Tenggara Province. The study aims to explain the direct and indirect causes of malnutrition among children under five years of age in the East Java Province in 2015. Using secondary data from the 2015 National Economic Social Survey in the East Java Province, the subjects of this research consisted of 38 districts and municipalities in the East Java Province. The results showed that the p values for each variable are: the length of breastfeeding in infants aged 0–23 months (X1) was 0.007, the percentage of completed immunization children under five years (X2) was 0.011, the percentage of the population consumption below 1400 kcal (X3) was 0.960, the proportion of households with adequate sanitation (X4) was 0.198, and the ratio of Enrolment Rates in Senior High Schools between female and male (X5) was 0.439. The conclusion of this study is that the independent variables were the time length of mothers in breastfeeding their infants aged 0–23 months and the percentage of children under five years of age who were fully immunized which had a negative correlation with malnutrition experinced by children under five years of age in the East Java Province in 2015.
Objective
Home visiting is a form of family support which can help families with different problems in different ways. Previous evaluations have utilised either experimental or qualitative designs. However, the needs-based nature of support presents a challenge for evaluation using experimental designs.
Main Aim
This paper illustrates the unique contribution that administrative data can make to understanding these problems and how it can be used to explore what support works for families in different situations.
Methods
The analysis of administrative data from one UK home visiting organisation, Home-Start, is presented. Exploratory analysis considers measures describing how well parents are coping with a range of issues and how this changes over the course of support. This highlights problems with evaluation because of the variety of issues Home-Start is supporting parents to cope with and the fact that the duration of support is needs-based. Methodological solutions are proposed for these problems using the administrative data. These include using subgroups to study families with different problems and considering the rate at which improvements occur as an outcome variable. Linear regression models are presented to demonstrate how these methods can identify aspects of support related to improvements in parental self-esteem.
Results
The methods used are able to demonstrate that the frequency of support and who the support is provided by are related to faster improvements in parental self-esteem. The analysis of sub-groups in the data shows that the frequency of support is important for all parents, but there are differences between parents in different situations, depending on whether volunteers or paid staff provide support.
Conclusion
The analysis of administrative data is able to make a unique contribution to the evaluation of needs-based home visiting support.
Rachel Pearson, Matthew Jay, Linda Wijlaars
et al.
Background
In England, the rate at which infants enter care varies considerably by local authority, with little evidence on what drives these differences. Decisions instigating infant entry into care may be triggered by child protection concerns arising from parental ill-health or risky behaviour from pregnancy onwards.
Main Aim
We explored the extent to which adversity indicated within women’s hospitalisation history, pre-delivery, explained differences in rate of infant entry into care between local authorities.
Methods/Approach
Combining data from several sources (Office for National Statistics Population Estimates, Public Health England Fingertips, 2011 Census, Children Looked After Return, and Hospital Episode Statistics), we derived population-level predictors for entry into care (i.e. local case-mix) for 131 English local authorities from 2006/07 to 2013/14. Our primary outcome was rate of infant entry into care. We used linear mixed-effects models to analyse the relationship between the outcome and percentage of live births with maternal history of adversity-related hospital admissions (i.e. any admission indicating substance misuse, mental ill-health, or violence, up to 36 months pre-delivery), adjusting for other case-mix measures.
Results
Rate of infant entry into care (mean: 85.16 per 10,000 [min-max: 0.00-318.51]) and percentage of live births with maternal history of adversity-related hospital admissions (4.62%, [0.52-16.19%]) varied greatly by local authority. Prevalence of maternal adversity accounted for 24% of variation in rate of entry (95% CI: 14-35%). After adjustment, there was evidence that a percentage point increase in prevalence of maternal adversity - both over time and between local authorities - is associated with an extra 2.56 infants, per 10,000, entering care (1.31-3.82).
Conclusion
Prevalence of maternal adversity prior to birth helps to explain differing rates of infant entry into care among local authorities. Further research using individual-level linked parent-child data is required to ascertain whether interventions to reduce maternal adversity before birth would decrease rate of infant entry into care.
The impact of many intensive care unit interventions has not been fully quantified, especially in heterogeneous patient populations. We train unsupervised switching state autoregressive models on vital signs from the public MIMIC-III database to capture patient movement between physiological states. We compare our learned states to static demographics and raw vital signs in the prediction of five ICU treatments: ventilation, vasopressor administra tion, and three transfusions. We show that our learned states, when combined with demographics and raw vital signs, improve prediction for most interventions even 4 or 8 hours ahead of onset. Our results are competitive with existing work while using a substantially larger and more diverse cohort of 36,050 patients. While custom classifiers can only target a specific clinical event, our model learns physiological states which can help with many interventions. Our robust patient state representations provide a path towards evidence-driven administration of clinical interventions.