Hasil untuk "Crisis management. Emergency management. Inflation"

Marlon Dumas, Fredrik Milani, David Chapela-Campa

Since the early 90s, the evolution of the Business Process Management (BPM) discipline has been punctuated by successive waves of automation technologies. Some of these technologies enable the automation of individual tasks, while others focus on orchestrating the execution of end-to-end processes. The rise of Generative and Agentic Artificial Intelligence (AI) is opening the way for another such wave. However, this wave is poised to be different because it shifts the focus from automation to autonomy and from design-driven management of business processes to data-driven management, leveraging process mining techniques. This position paper, based on a keynote talk at the 2025 Workshop on AI for BPM, outlines how process mining has laid the foundations on top of which agents can sense process states, reason about improvement opportunities, and act to maintain and optimize performance. The paper proposes an architectural vision for Agentic Business Process Management Systems (A-BPMS): a new class of platforms that integrate autonomy, reasoning, and learning into process management and execution. The paper contends that such systems must support a continuum of processes, spanning from human-driven to fully autonomous, thus redefining the boundaries of process automation and governance.

Maria A. Kuznetsova, Sirena N. Zaripova

Purpose. Description of the problem of stating and methodological approach to substantiation of a rational option for staffing territorial divisions (TD) of state fire supervision (SFS), the implementation of which will increase the level of readiness of the latter to perform tasks in accordance with their intended purpose. Methods. The article uses the methods of systems analysis, empirical methods, and methods of multivariate statistical analysis. Findings. Based on the analysis of fire statistics and their consequences, performance indicators of TD SFS, a problem situation was identified consisting in a decrease in the level of staffing and, accordingly, an increase in the workload of SFS employees, which hinders the performance of tasks in accordance with their intended purpose. A contradiction in the subject area under consideration is formulated, a direction for resolving the problem situation is proposed in terms of substantiating a rational option for staffing TD SFS. The problem statement is presented, a methodological approach to its solution is proposed, which can be implemented on the basis of a sequential solution of three specific problems. Application field of research. Obtaining a rational option for staffing the TD SFS based on the proposed stating the problem and methodological approach will help eliminate the personnel shortage in the TD SFS of the EMERCOM of Russia.

Игорь Юрьевич Иванов, Олег Дмитриевич Навроцкий

Цель. Разработка универсального пленкообразующего огнетушащего химического состава для установок пожаротушения водой и пеной на основе фторированных поверхностно-активных веществ для тушения пожаров класса А и В (горение твердых и жидких горючих веществ), подаваемого на тушение методом распыления. Методы. Эмпирические методы исследования (измерение поверхностного и межфазного натяжения растворов), метод рандомизации и полного факторного эксперимента для получения регрессионных моделей, а также модуль «Профили желательности» программного пакета STATISTICA. Определение коэффициентов поверхностного и межфазного натяжений растворов поверхностно-активных веществ в водных системах проводили методом отрыва кольца Дю Нуи на автоматическом тензиометре KRÜSS-К20. Результаты. Обоснован выбор компонентов пленкообразующего огнетушащего химического состава: фторированных поверхностно-активных веществ (ФПАВ), углеводородных поверхностно-активных веществ (УПАВ) и сорастворителя. Представлены результаты полного факторного эксперимента, на основании которого получены регрессионные модели, описывающие изменение значения коэффициента растекания водной пленки по поверхности горючей жидкости, коэффициента межфазного натяжения, времени смачивания образца из хлопковой ткани, времени существования водной пленки на поверхности горючей жидкости, толщины водной пленки на поверхности горючей жидкости и времени тушения модельного очага пожара класса B в зависимости от соотношения компонентов пленкообразующих огнетушащих химических составов. Из установленных зависимостей времени тушения модельных очагов пожаров от масcовой доли компонентов пленкообразующего огнетушащего химического состава определены диапазоны коэффициента межфазного натяжения 1,7–1,9 мН·м⁻¹ и коэффициента растекания 3,0–3,2 мН·м⁻¹, при которых огнетушащая эффективность пленкообразующего огнетушащего химического состава максимальна и составляет 55 с, что на 35 % больше огнетушащей эффективности серийно выпускаемых пленкообразующих пенообразователей. На основании установленных зависимостей времени тушения модельных очагов от коэффициента межфазного натяжения водных растворов ФПАВ, УПАВ с сорастворителем разработана рецептура пленкообразующего огнетушащего состава, состоящего из 2,9±0,1 мас. % амфотерного ФПАВ, 1,5±0,1 мас. % неионогенного УПАВ, 3,0±0,1 мас. % анионного УПАВ, 10,0±0,1 мас. % органического растворителя и 82,9±0,1 мас. % воды, отличающегося от исследуемых составов и существующих аналогов наибольшей огнетушащей эффективностью при подаче путем распыления. Область применения исследований. Полученные результаты могут быть использованы при разработке рецептуры пленкообразующих огнетушащих составов для тушения пожаров.

Danfeng Zhang, Zhiping Li, Juncheng Jiang et al.

Tert-butyl perbenzoate (TBPB) is a common initiator widely used in polymerization processes, but the peroxide bond in its molecular structure is highly susceptible to breakage, leading to decomposition or even explosion. To explore the thermal behavior of TBPB and to inhibit the thermal hazard of free radicals generated during the reaction process, well-established calorimetric techniques were applied to measure the thermal stability of TBPB. The apparent activation energy of the TBPB decomposition reaction was also calculated using the Kissinger-Akahira-Sunose (KAS), Flynn-Wall-Ozawa (FWO), and Starink kinetic method. The thermal decomposition products of TBPB were determined by Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) experiment, and the qualitative analysis of free radicals generated during the reaction process was conducted by electron paramagnetic resonance spectroscopy (EPR) combined with free radical trapping technology. 2,2,6,6-tetramethylpiperidinooxy (TEMPO), a free radical trapping agent and inhibitor, was selected in this study as the thermal runaway inhibitor of the TBPB thermal decomposition reaction. Its inhibition effects on the corresponding free radicals and the thermal runaway of the TBPB decomposition reaction were verified. It is found that TEMPO can effectively reduce the potential thermal dangers and accident risks of TBPB, which provides a powerful reference for the prevention and management of thermal disasters during the production, storage, and transportation of TBPB.

Kevin Christiansen, Ayat Al Assi, Rubayet Bin Mostafiz et al.

Roadways in the US states of Washington (WA), Oregon (OR), and California (CA) incurred extraordinary damage during the 2020 Labor Day wildfires. However, the cost and risk of these fires have not been placed in a historical perspective. This study examines the damage to roadways affected by the 2020 Labor Day wildfires in relation to the history of megafires in WA (1902–2023), OR (1845–2023), and CA (1889–2023) using carefully selected data sets gathered from the Washington State Department of Transportation (WSDOT), Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT), and California Department of Transportation (Caltrans). A method for classifying road damage from the 2020 wildfires is also presented, with classes labeled for traffic control, slope-rock scaling, hazard trees, and structures. Total anticipated costs incurred from the 2020 megafires for both temporary and permanent repairs included over US\begin{document}${\$} $\end{document}24 million for hazard trees, US\begin{document}${\$} $\end{document}17.5 million for slope-rock scaling, US\begin{document}${\$} $\end{document}43 million for structural damage, and over US\begin{document}${\$} $\end{document}3 million for traffic control. The total average cost of both temporary and permanent repairs per km of impacted route due to the 2020 Labor Day wildfires was about US\begin{document}${\$} $\end{document}127,783. These financial impacts can be used to better understand and manage risk attributable to this widespread and increasing hazard.

Shuochen Bi, Wenqing Bao

With the rapid growth of technology, especially the widespread application of artificial intelligence (AI) technology, the risk management level of commercial banks is constantly reaching new heights. In the current wave of digitalization, AI has become a key driving force for the strategic transformation of financial institutions, especially the banking industry. For commercial banks, the stability and safety of asset quality are crucial, which directly relates to the long-term stable growth of the bank. Among them, credit risk management is particularly core because it involves the flow of a large amount of funds and the accuracy of credit decisions. Therefore, establishing a scientific and effective credit risk decision-making mechanism is of great strategic significance for commercial banks. In this context, the innovative application of AI technology has brought revolutionary changes to bank credit risk management. Through deep learning and big data analysis, AI can accurately evaluate the credit status of borrowers, timely identify potential risks, and provide banks with more accurate and comprehensive credit decision support. At the same time, AI can also achieve realtime monitoring and early warning, helping banks intervene before risks occur and reduce losses.

Christofel Rio Goenawan

In the modern world, the development of Artificial Intelligence (AI) has contributed to improvements in various areas, including automation, computer vision, fraud detection, and more. AI can be leveraged to enhance the efficiency of Autonomous Smart Traffic Management (ASTM) systems and reduce traffic congestion rates. This paper presents an Autonomous Smart Traffic Management (STM) system that uses AI to improve traffic flow rates. The system employs the YOLO V5 Convolutional Neural Network to detect vehicles in traffic management images. Additionally, it predicts the number of vehicles for the next 12 hours using a Recurrent Neural Network with Long Short-Term Memory (RNN-LSTM). The Smart Traffic Management Cycle Length Analysis manages the traffic cycle length based on these vehicle predictions, aided by AI. From the results of the RNN-LSTM model for predicting vehicle numbers over the next 12 hours, we observe that the model predicts traffic with a Mean Squared Error (MSE) of 4.521 vehicles and a Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) of 2.232 vehicles. After simulating the STM system in the CARLA simulation environment, we found that the Traffic Management Congestion Flow Rate with ASTM (21 vehicles per minute) is 50\% higher than the rate without STM (around 15 vehicles per minute). Additionally, the Traffic Management Vehicle Pass Delay with STM (5 seconds per vehicle) is 70\% lower than without STM (around 12 seconds per vehicle). These results demonstrate that the STM system using AI can increase traffic flow by 50\% and reduce vehicle pass delays by 70\%.

Sijie Xiong, Wei Lv, Xiaolin Xiong et al.

This paper presents a review of the research progress and practical application of emergency plan construction in China over the past two decades by using the literature analysis method and the case analysis method. The main content includes the development process and current status of the national emergency plan research, the basic structure of the emergency plan and the problems in practical application. The VOSViewer is introduced to analyze the improvement research conducted by Chinese scholars in the above aspects, and four main research directions is determined by literature keyword overlay visualization, namely technical models, emergency planning frameworks for different types of emergencies, overall emergency management, the epidemic situation of COVID-19. It can be concluded that at present, while some achievements have been made in the management and research of China's emergency plans there are still some shortcomings in the practical application, such as a lack of public awareness of emergency plans, insufficient coordination and cooperation between departments, and the lack of attention to training and implementation of emergency plans. The combination of practice and theory still has room for improvement. Therefore, this review provides direction for improving the operability of research results and China's emergency plan management system in the future.

Felix Lanfermann, Qiqi Liu, Yaochu Jin et al.

Implementing resource efficient energy management systems in facilities and buildings becomes increasingly important in the transformation to a sustainable society. However, selecting a suitable configuration based on multiple, typically conflicting objectives, such as cost, robustness with respect to uncertainty of grid operation, or renewable energy utilization, is a difficult multi-criteria decision making problem. The recently developed concept identification technique can facilitate a decision maker by sorting configuration options into semantically meaningful groups (concepts). In this process, the partitioning of the objectives and design parameters into different sets (called description spaces) is a very important step. In this study we focus on utilizing the concept identification technique for finding relevant and viable energy management configurations from a very large data set of Pareto-optimal solutions. The data set consists of 20000 realistic Pareto-optimal building energy management configurations generated by a many-objective evolutionary optimization of a high quality Digital Twin energy management simulator. We analyze how the choice of description spaces, i.e., the partitioning of the objectives and parameters, impacts the type of information that can be extracted. We show that the decision maker can introduce constraints and biases into that process to meet expectations and preferences. The iterative approach presented in this work allows for the generation of valuable insights into trade-offs between specific objectives, and constitutes a powerful and flexible tool to support the decision making process when designing large and complex energy management systems.

Paul Alexander Bilokon

In academic literature portfolio risk management and hedging are often versed in the language of stochastic control and Hamilton--Jacobi--Bellman~(HJB) equations in continuous time. In practice the continuous-time framework of stochastic control may be undesirable for various business reasons. In this work we present a straightforward approach for thinking of cross-asset portfolio risk management and hedging, providing some implementation details, while rarely venturing outside the convex optimisation setting of (approximate) quadratic programming~(QP). We pay particular attention to the correspondence between the economic concepts and their mathematical representations; the abstractions enabling us to handle multiple asset classes and risk models at once; the dimensional analysis of the resulting equations; and the assumptions inherent in our derivations. We demonstrate how to solve the resulting QPs with CVXOPT.

Tahir Iqbal, Shabir Ahmad

Purpose – Mismanagement and corruption in disaster relief operations (DROs) have created a demand for transparency and visibility in humanitarian logistics and supply chains. The global relief organisations and recent research endorse the adoption of digital solutions in DROs. The purpose of this research is to examine the moderating role of digitalisation in enhancing transparency in humanitarian logistics and supply chains of DROs in Pakistan. Design/methodology/approach – Employing the quantitative research method, the data were collected from 340 disaster relief workers through survey questionnaires using the snowball sampling technique. The data were analysed in the SmartPLS3 software of PLS-SEM. Findings – The findings suggested that in Pakistan, where corruption and mismanagement in humanitarian logistics and supply chain have been the greatest concerns of all the stakeholders, digitalisation of the DROs is a way forward to create transparency in the system and build the trust of the donor organisations and public. Research limitations/implications – The sample included only 340 disaster relief workers, future researchers may test the proposed model on a larger sample size and from different stakeholders' perspectives such as the disaster victims, government agencies and NGOs. Social implications – The ultimate beneficiaries of a digitalised and transparent humanitarian logistics and supply chain will be the society as a whole and particularly the victims of the disasters. By adopting the appropriate technologies in DROs, the victims will receive timely and entitled resources, and early warnings will save many lives. Originality/value – The paper contributes to the body of knowledge by providing the first empirical evidence of examining the moderating role of digitalisation in creating transparency in humanitarian logistics from one of the top ten most disaster-affected nations.

Khakan Najaf, Mohamed M. Dhiaf, Nohade Hanna Nasrallah et al.

Purpose – This study contributes to the extant literature on ICT firms by investigating the interrelationship between the health and safety (H&S) measures, market performance, and the coronavirus (COVID-19). Design/methodology/approach – To conduct the confirmatory analysis by testing our hypotheses, data have been collected from Bloomberg of all ICT firms from five countries. The authors gathered from 2010 until 2020 as the research sample to examine the pandemic impact on market performance and H&S measures. Findings – First, our results reveal a significant and positive relationship between market performance (proxied by Tobin’s Q) and the H&S measures of information technology (IT) firms. Second, the authors find that the IT firms have significantly increased the H&S measures during the COVID-19 period and were dynamic in linking employees’ adaptive capabilities to positive attributes. This has contributed to business success, resiliency, and sustainability. Research limitations/implications – The authors used a quantitative method of testing our hypotheses. Future studies may consider checking the robustness using qualitative methods such as structural or semi-structural interviews. Practical implications – The study offers valuable insights to academics, practitioners, stakeholders, policymakers, and international entities by fostering knowledge about responses to crises, integrating digital solutions, and disseminating digital information. The study also has implications on the health, social, business, and economic levels. This study is a call for international and local humanitarian organisations such as United Nations High Commission, Care international and many more to understand the gravity of safety of the workers in the workplace during the pandemic period and introduce a firm-level policy accordingly. Originality/value – This paper is novel considering that the paper is unique in evaluating ICT firms’ market performance and H&S from a global perspective, considering the context of this historical pandemic.

Thierry Roncalli

This article is part of a comprehensive research project on liquidity risk in asset management, which can be divided into three dimensions. The first dimension covers the modeling of the liability liquidity risk (or funding liquidity), the second dimension is dedicated to the modeling of the asset liquidity risk (or market liquidity), whereas the third dimension considers the management of the asset-liability liquidity risk (or asset-liability matching). The purpose of this research is to propose a methodological and practical framework in order to perform liquidity stress testing programs, which comply with regulatory guidelines (ESMA, 2019, 2020) and are useful for fund managers. In this third and last research paper focused on managing the asset-liability liquidity risk, we explore the ALM tools that can be put in place to control the liquidity gap. These ALM tools can be split into three categories: measurement tools, management tools and monitoring tools. In terms of measurement tools, we focus on the computation of the redemption coverage ratio (RCR), which is the central instrument of liquidity stress testing programs. We also study the redemption liquidation policy and the different implementation methodologies, and we show how reverse stress testing can be developed. In terms of liquidity management tools, we study the calibration of liquidity buffers, the pros and cons of special arrangements (redemption suspensions, gates, side pockets and in-kind redemptions) and the effectiveness of swing pricing. In terms of liquidity monitoring tools, we compare the macro- and micro-approaches of liquidity monitoring in order to identify the transmission channels of liquidity risk.

Вадим Ковтун, Сергей Короткевич, Владимир Пасовец

Цель. Экспериментальное подтверждение эффективности применения разработанных методик и рекомендаций, обеспечивающих повышение эксплуатационного ресурса, увеличение запаса прочности и межремонтного периода модернизированных цистерн пожарных автомобилей, эксплуатируемых в аварийно-спасательных подразделениях на территории Республики Беларусь. Методы. Компьютерное моделирование, методы тензометрии. Результаты. Экспериментальным путем исследовано напряженное состояние серийно изготавливаемой и модернизированной цистерны пожарного автомобиля при различных эксплуатационных режимах движения. Подтверждены результаты теоретических расчетов, полученные методом компьютерного моделирования. В статье представлено описание эксперимента, обработка и анализ полученных результатов. Область применения исследований. Результаты исследований применены при проектировании и разработке конструкций оболочечного типа.

Andreea-Elena Panait, Ruxandra F. Olimid, Alin Stefanescu

In the last years, identity management solutions on blockchain were proposed as a possible solution to the digital identity management problem. However, they are still at an early stage and further research needs to be done to conclude whether identity systems could benefit from the use of blockchain or not. Motivated by this, we investigate identity management solutions on blockchain intending to give the reader an overview of the current status and provide a better understanding of the pros and cons of using such solutions. We conduct an analysis on ten of the most known implementations, with a focus on privacy and security aspects. Finally, we identify existing challenges and give new directions for research.