Hasil untuk "Balance of trade"

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DOAJ Open Access 2026
An enhanced genetic algorithm with ant colony optimization for phase shift design in RIS-assisted MIMO networks

Laith Ibrahim, Mohd Nazri Mahmud, Mohd Fadzli Mohd Salleh et al.

Abstract Reconfigurable intelligent surfaces (RISs) have emerged as a promising technology for seamless integration with future sixth-generation (6G) wireless systems. However, their performance critically depends on the optimization of numerous phase shifts across RIS elements, making efficient phase shift design crucial. Existing optimization methods often face limitations, including unbalanced exploration and exploitation, slow convergence, suboptimal channel gain, high computational overhead, poor scalability, and reduced robustness. Among them, the Genetic Algorithm (GA) is a widely used meta-heuristic for RIS phase shift optimization, valued for its strong exploration capabilities in complex, constrained, non-convex problems. Nevertheless, GA suffers from limited exploitation and high sensitivity to control parameters, leading to performance degradation. To address these limitations, this paper proposes an enhanced GA that integrates pheromone-guided selection and heuristic-driven recombination—adapted from ant colony optimization (ACO)—into the GA’s crossover operation only. This novel lightweight hybridization strengthens exploitation without compromising exploration. A new entropy-based mathematical framework is developed to rigorously analyze the exploration–exploitation trade-off. Simulations are performed to assess the enhanced GA while comparing it with the standard GA and another popular optimizer, the particle swarm optimizer (PSO). The results demonstrate that the enhanced GA consistently outperforms both the standard GA and PSO. In small-scale system, its exploration–exploitation balance enables it to reach the 95% balance point in only 6 iterations, compared to 66 and 43 for the original GA and PSO, respectively. It also converges faster with 7 against 62 and 43, achieving up to 1.6 dB higher channel gain. With a minimum runtime of 55 ms, it is more computationally efficient than the original GA (140 ms) and PSO (95 ms), reducing runtime by up to 2.6 times. Its scalability is evident, as its channel gain advantage grows from 1.6 dB to 2.4 dB with increasing network size. Furthermore, the enhanced GA demonstrates superior robustness under algorithmic parameter variations and channel estimation errors.

Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Sustainable foamed Poly-Al composites from used beverage cartons using azodicarbonamide

Anin Memon, Suchalinee Mathurosemontri, Wichain Chailad et al.

This study presents a direct method for fabricating chemically foamed composites from used beverage cartons (UBCs), utilizing recycled polyethylene–aluminum (Poly-Al) waste and azodicarbonamide (ADC) as a chemical blowing agent. The influence of ADC concentration (0.5–2.0 phr) on foam morphology, density, and mechanical properties was systematically investigated. At 1.0 phr ADC, the foam exhibited the lowest density (0.37 g/cm³, a 55% reduction from the unfoamed Poly-Al), the highest volume expansion ratio (2.21), the maximum cell density (3.28 × 10³ cells/cm³), and a balanced average cell size (582.69 µm). The mechanical properties showed a trade-off with weight reduction: the 1.0 phr ADC sample retained approximately 14% of the original Young’s modulus (697.2 MPa) and 23% of the tensile strength (1.03 MPa), suggesting an optimal balance for lightweight applications. Excessive ADC loading (1.5–2.0 phr) led to over-foaming, increased cell size (up to 647.33 µm), reduced cell density, and mechanical degradation, confirming the importance of controlling gas evolution relative to matrix melt strength. The incorporation of embedded aluminum particles further contributed to dimensional stability by reinforcing the matrix, as observed in SEM analysis. This work highlights a scalable approach to upcycling multilayer UBC waste into lightweight, functional composite foams, offering insights into gas–melt interactions and promoting sustainable material development.

DOAJ Open Access 2025
Beyond Trade Wars

Xianbai JI, Xin TONG

The Asia-Pacific remains a region of strategic importance, where nations compete for power and influence, despite rising exclusionism that undermines the international order. Unlike prevailing literature on geopolitics and security, this article examines the current dynamics and trends shaping the US–China geoeconomic competition. It also explores how Donald Trump’s tariff war would impact China’s and the Asia-Pacific’s multidimensional fields beyond the immediate economic effects on trade balance. It concludes with policy recommendations for Asia-Pacific countries to ease the geoeconomic tensions between the two superpowers.

Political institutions and public administration - Asia (Asian studies only), Political science (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Tone Mapping of HDR Images via Meta-Guided Bayesian Optimization and Virtual Diffraction Modeling

Deju Huang, Xifeng Zheng, Jingxu Li et al.

This paper proposes a novel image tone-mapping framework that incorporates meta-learning, a psychophysical model, Bayesian optimization, and light-field virtual diffraction. First, we formalize the virtual diffraction process as a mathematical operator defined in the frequency domain to reconstruct high-dynamic-range (HDR) images through phase modulation, enabling the precise control of image details and contrast. In parallel, we apply the Stevens power law to simulate the nonlinear luminance perception of the human visual system, thereby adjusting the overall brightness distribution of the HDR image and improving the visual experience. Unlike existing methods that primarily emphasize structural fidelity, the proposed method strikes a balance between perceptual fidelity and visual naturalness. Secondly, an adaptive parameter tuning system based on Bayesian optimization is developed to conduct optimization of the Tone Mapping Quality Index (TMQI), quantifying uncertainty using probabilistic models to approximate the global optimum with fewer evaluations. Furthermore, we propose a task-distribution-oriented meta-learning framework: a meta-feature space based on image statistics is constructed, and task clustering is combined with a gated meta-learner to rapidly predict initial parameters. This approach significantly enhances the robustness of the algorithm in generalizing to diverse HDR content and effectively mitigates the cold-start problem in the early stage of Bayesian optimization, thereby accelerating the convergence of the overall optimization process. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method substantially outperforms state-of-the-art tone-mapping algorithms across multiple benchmark datasets, with an average improvement of up to 27% in naturalness. Furthermore, the meta-learning-guided Bayesian optimization achieves two- to five-fold faster convergence. In the trade-off between computational time and performance, the proposed method consistently dominates the Pareto frontier, achieving high-quality results and efficient convergence with a low computational cost.

Chemical technology
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Optimal Positioning of Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV) Base Stations Using Mixed-Integer Linear Programming

Gowtham Raj Veeraswamy Premkumar, Bryan Van Scoy

In wireless communications, traditional base stations act as the backbone for providing network connectivity to users. These base stations, however, require significant resources to construct and are therefore not suitable for remote areas and disaster scenarios. This challenge makes them unfit for deployment in remote areas or in disaster scenarios where fast network establishment is necessary. To address these challenges, cellular base stations installed on Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) can be an alternative solution. UAVs provide quick deployment capability and can adapt to changing environmental situations, making them ideal for dynamic network scenarios. In this paper, we address the critical issue of UAV positioning to maximize the total user coverage, which can be formulated as a mixed-integer linear program. Given the complexity of larger-scale scenarios related to the number of users, we suggest a two-step method. First, we group users into clusters, and then we optimize the UAV positions with respect to these clusters. This approach introduces a trade-off between computational time efficiency and optimality, which can be tuned by adjusting the number of clusters. By varying the number of clusters, we balance computation time with the optimality of the UAV locations, allowing flexible deployment in diverse scenarios.

Motor vehicles. Aeronautics. Astronautics
DOAJ Open Access 2025
The fuel security and climate policy nexus

Mark Sanctuary, Anton Fagerström, Roozbeh Feiz et al.

This study investigates the interaction between fuel security and climate policy in Sweden, a small economy with no domestic oil production and one of the highest shares of fossil-free alternative fuels in the transport sector within Europe accounting for approximately 20% (by energy content) of total transportation fuel demand in 2019, excluding electricity. Using a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) model estimated on monthly data from 2010 to 2023, the analysis quantifies the elasticity of Swedish GDP to global oil supply shocks and computes the associated fuel security premium. Results indicate that Sweden’s short-run GDP response to oil shocks is modest—approximately one-third the magnitude of the U.S.—but the longer-run response is comparatively stronger, reflecting the importance of international economic spillovers. The estimated fuel security premium reaches up to 0.065 EURO/liter diesel equivalent (or USD 12.6 USD/barrel of oil), underscoring persistent macroeconomic exposure despite high adoption of alternative fuels. A qualitative assessment of Sweden’s fuel market shows that while biodiesels are widely used, their reliance on imported feedstocks, exportability, and high cost limits their contribution to fuel security. Electricity and biomethane offer more promising pathways for enhancing fuel security due to their domestic production potential, barriers to international trade, and price competitiveness. The findings help define the scope to which unilateral fuel security policies can reinforce climate policy goals in small economies, emphasizing the importance of diversified energy systems and international coordination. These insights provide guidance for the strategic planning and implementation of energy policy in small, oil-import-dependent countries seeking to balance energy security and climate objectives in a globally integrated fuel market.

Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Feature-Centric Approaches to Android Malware Analysis: A Survey

Shama Maganur, Yili Jiang, Jiaqi Huang et al.

Sophisticated malware families exploit the openness of the Android platform to enable large-scale disruption, data exfiltration, and denial-of-service attacks, including the infiltration of IoT infrastructures. This systematic literature review examines cutting-edge approaches to Android malware analysis, with implications for securing resource-constrained environments. We analyze feature extraction techniques across static, dynamic, hybrid, and graph-based methods, highlighting their respective trade-offs. Static analysis offers efficiency but is easily circumvented through obfuscation, whereas dynamic analysis provides stronger resistance to evasive behaviors at the cost of higher computational overhead, often unsuitable for lightweight devices. Hybrid approaches aim to balance accuracy with resource efficiency, while graph-based methods deliver enhanced semantic modeling and adversarial robustness. This survey provides a structured comparison of existing techniques, identifies open research gaps, and outlines a roadmap for future work to improve scalability, adaptability, and long-term resilience in Android malware detection.

Electronic computers. Computer science
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Preserving privacy and video quality through remote physiological signal removal

Saksham Bhutani, Mohamed Elgendi, Carlo Menon

Abstract The revolutionary remote photoplethysmography (rPPG) technique has enabled intelligent devices to estimate physiological parameters with remarkable accuracy. However, the continuous and surreptitious recording of individuals by these devices and the collecting of sensitive health data without users’ knowledge or consent raise serious privacy concerns. Here we explore frugal methods for modifying facial videos to conceal physiological signals while maintaining image quality. Eleven lightweight modification methods, including blurring operations, additive noises, and time-averaging techniques, were evaluated using five different rPPG techniques across four activities: rest, talking, head rotation, and gym. These rPPG methods require minimal computational resources, enabling real-time implementation on low-compute devices. Our results indicate that the time-averaging sliding frame method achieved the greatest balance between preserving the information within the frame and inducing a heart rate error, with an average error of 22 beats per minute (bpm). Further, the facial region of interest was found to be the most effective and to offer the best trade-off between bpm errors and information loss.

Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2025
Rubber plantations in tropical landscapes: agronomic systems, environmental impacts, and evidence-based management recommendations

Fadeila Mohammed Hashim Ali, Syaharudin bin Zaibon, Md Kamal Uddin et al.

While Natural Rubber (NR) supports global supply chains, rapid expansion in South and Southeast Asia has noticeable effects on biodiversity, hydrology, and the carbon balance. This review synthesises the economic importance, environmental challenges, commercial applications, and ecological impacts of rubber production and plantation expansion. Furthermore, the study combines high-resolution deforestation attribution (Sentinel-2/Landsat), Eddy-Covariance (EC) comparisons of plantations and nearby tropical forests, and models that include a rubber-specific Plant Functional Type (PFT). In addition, conversion from forest to rubber consistently simplifies habitats, decreases species richness and functional diversity, reduces ecosystem carbon storage, raises peak flows and sediment export, and lowers baseflow. Conversely, replacing annual cropland can increase above-ground biomass and provide partial carbon gains. As such, results depend systematically on prior land use, monsoon intensity and rainfall patterns, elevation, and management practices (monoculture versus diversified agroforestry). The study recommends directing new planting onto already cleared land through spatial planning and reliable traceability; adopting diversified rubber agroforestry and soil- and water-conserving methods. This includes explicitly integrating rubber within zero-deforestation policies and results-based carbon payments. In line with this, rubber-specific modelling and open flux datasets should support climate-risk assessments and monitoring. Overall, focused governance and agroforestry strategies can balance ecological trade-offs while maintaining production, aligning natural-rubber supply with verifiable climate and biodiversity safeguards.

Agriculture, Agriculture (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2024
VALUE CHAINS IN RAW MATERIALS, HIGH-TECH AND AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS. INTERNATIONAL, EUROPEAN AND ROMANIAN PERSPECTIVES

Sorin IONITESCU, Agatha POPESCU, Simona MOAGAR-POLADIAN et al.

This article explores the complexities and opportunities of agricultural value chains from international, European, and Romanian perspectives. Highlighting the importance of efficient value chain management, the exploration examines first the situation at the global level in the countries with a high economic development: USA, China, Germany, Japan and India, as a reflection on how global and regional policies impact agricultural production and distribution. Market dynamics of raw materials and high tech products and services in terms of export, import and trade balance was analyzed in the EU in the interval 20 2-2022, based on Eurostat data, emphasizing its role in shaping value chains. The European lens focuses on the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) and its implications for member states. The Romanian context highlights local challenges and strategies for integrating into broader value chains. From a methodological point of view, there were used various methods and procedures among which the main ones have been: descriptive context of the literature, trend dynamics in raw materials and high tech-products and services in terms of regression equation and R square, fixed basis index for showing the growth rate on the studied period, comparison method, illustrations in tabulated results and suggestive graphics. By analyzing case studies and current trends, the current research provide insights for enhancing economic efficiency, sustainability, and competitiveness in the agricultural sectors.

Agriculture (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2023
The Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Food Production and Self-Sufficiency in China from 1978 to 2020: From the Perspective of Calories

Jing Zhang, Yu Fang, Hua Zheng et al.

Ensuring national food security is an eternal topic. We unified six categories of food with calorie content including grain, oil, sugar, fruits and vegetables, animal husbandry, and aquatic products on the basis of provincial-level data, and we dynamically evaluated caloric production capacity and the supply–demand equilibrium under the increase in feed-grain consumption as well as the food losses and waste in China from 1978 to 2020 at four different levels. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of food production, the total national calorie production showed a linear growth trend, with a growth rate of 31.7 × 10<sup>12</sup> kcal/year, of which the proportion of grain crops has always exceeded 60%. Most provinces showed significant increasing trends in food calorific production, except for Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, which showed slightly decreasing trends. The distribution pattern of food calories and their growth rate were high in the east and low in the west. (2) From the perspective of the food supply–demand equilibrium, the national food calorie supply has been in surplus since 1992, but significant spatial heterogeneity is detected, with the Main Marketing Region changing from a tight balance to a short surplus, North China always remaining in calorie shortage, and 15 provinces still presenting supply and demand gaps up to 2020, necessitating the establishment of a more efficient and faster flow and trade system. (3) The national food caloric center has shifted 204.67 km to the northeast, and the population center has shifted to the southwest. The reverse migration of the centers of food supply and demand will further aggravate the pressure on water and soil resources and cause higher requirements for ensuring the circulation and trade system of food supply. The results are of great significance for the timely adjustment of agricultural development policies, making rational use of natural advantages and ensuring China’s food security and sustainable agricultural development.

Chemical technology
DOAJ Open Access 2022
An economic evaluation of triage tools for patients with suspected severe injuries in England

Daniel Pollard, Gordon Fuller, Steve Goodacre et al.

Abstract Background Many health care systems triage injured patients to major trauma centres (MTCs) or local hospitals by using triage tools and paramedic judgement. Triage tools are typically assessed by whether patients with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) ≥ 16 go to an MTC and whether patients with an ISS < 16 are sent to their local hospital. There is a trade-off between sensitivity and specificity of triage tools, with the optimal balance being unknown. We conducted an economic evaluation of major trauma triage tools to identify which tool would be considered cost-effective by UK decision makers. Methods A patient-level, probabilistic, mathematical model of a UK major trauma system was developed. Patients with an ISS ≥ 16 who were only treated at local hospitals had worse outcomes compared to being treated in an MTC. Nine empirically derived triage tools, from a previous study, were examined so we assessed triage tools with realistic trade-offs between triage tool sensitivity and specificity. Lifetime costs, lifetime quality adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) were calculated for each tool and compared to maximum acceptable ICERs (MAICERs) in England. Results Four tools had ICERs within the normal range of MAICERs used by English decision makers (£20,000 to £30,000 per QALY gained). A low sensitivity (28.4%) and high specificity (88.6%) would be cost-effective at the lower end of this range while higher sensitivity (87.5%) and lower specificity (62.8%) was cost-effective towards the upper end of this range. These results were sensitive to the cost of MTC admissions and whether MTCs had a benefit for patients with an ISS between 9 and 15. Conclusions The cost-effective triage tool depends on the English decision maker’s MAICER for this health problem. In the usual range of MAICERs, cost-effective prehospital trauma triage involves clinically suboptimal sensitivity, with a proportion of seriously injured patients (at least 10%) being initially transported to local hospitals. High sensitivity trauma triage requires development of more accurate decision rules; research to establish if patients with an ISS between 9 and 15 benefit from MTCs; or, inefficient use of health care resources to manage patients with less serious injuries at MTCs.

Special situations and conditions, Medical emergencies. Critical care. Intensive care. First aid
DOAJ Open Access 2021
Asymmetric impact of exchange rate on trade between Vietnam and each of EU-27 countries and the UK: evidence from nonlinear ARDL and the role of vehicle currency

Ho Hoang Gia Bao, Hoang Phong Le

The relationship between exchange rate and trade balance has been spotlighted in the past several decades and thus examined by manifold research. The findings, however, lack of consensus despite the intensive efforts in investigating the role of exchange rate as an important determinant of trade balance in various countries. Although the existing papers are abundant, most of them neglect the role of vehicle currency. Besides, few articles are dedicated to Vietnam, and none has inspected the exchange rate-trade balance nexus between Vietnam and the EU. This study is the first to scrutinize how bilateral exchange rates, together with vehicle currency exchange rate, asymmetrically impact Vietnam's bilateral trade balance with respect to EU-27 countries and the UK. The NARDL estimation results strongly acknowledge the importance of USD as vehicle currency when more significant short-run and long-run coefficients are found. Accordingly, this article can provide some useful implications for policy-makers, especially when Vietnam was first labelled currency manipulator by the USA in December 2020. Particularly, USD/VND movement can affect not only Vietnam-USA but also Vietnam-EU and Vietnam-UK trade balance. In addition, VND appreciation against USD seems beneficial to Vietnam's bilateral trade with the EU plus the UK.

Science (General), Social sciences (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2021
UK-Turkey Relationship in Light of Brexit

Kira Godovanyuk

The 2016 UK EU membership referendum has been a catalyst for a stronger political dialogue between Turkey and Britain. The countries have taken a firm line of strategic partnership which meets the interests of both parties to strengthen their international positions. In late December 2020, the parties managed to forge a trade agreement envisaging most of the previously established rules. At the same time, a full-scale trade agreement is hampered by Ankara’s obligations within the EU Customs Union and Preferential agreements. Turkey occupies an important place in the new foreign strategy of the UK. London considers Ankara, which is pursuing an increasingly tough policy in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East and the Black Sea region, as a situational ally in strengthening its international positions weakened by Brexit. The author notes that the declared strategic partnership in the political sphere has a number of limitations associated with the conflict potential of relations between Turkey and the European Union, as well as the growing importance of the values factor in British foreign policy. The UK actually needs to find a balance between other international players in the Brussels-London-Ankara triangle for its own geopolitical and economic goals. The nature of British-Turkish relations is of considerable interest to Russia.

International relations
DOAJ Open Access 2020
Identification of Major Inefficient Water Consumption Areas Considering Water Consumption, Efficiencies, and Footprints in Australia

Muhammad Atiq Ur Rehman Tariq, Riley Raimond Damnics, Zohreh Rajabi et al.

Due to population growth, climatic change, and growing water usage, water scarcity is expected to be a more prevalent issue at the global level. The situation in Australia is even more serious because it is the driest continent and is characterized by larger water footprints in the domestic, agriculture and industrial sectors. Because the largest consumption of freshwater resources is in the agricultural sector (59%), this research undertakes a detailed investigation of the water footprints of agricultural practices in Australia. The analysis of the four highest water footprint crops in Australia revealed that the suitability of various crops is connected to the region and the irrigation efficiencies. A desirable crop in one region may be unsuitable in another. The investigation is further extended to analyze the overall virtual water trade of Australia. Australia’s annual virtual water trade balance is adversely biased towards exporting a substantial quantity of water, amounting to 35 km<sup>3</sup>, per trade data of 2014. It is evident that there is significant potential to reduce water consumption and footprints, and increase the water usage efficiencies, in all sectors. Based on the investigations conducted, it is recommended that the water footprints at each state level be considered at the strategic level. Further detailed analyses are required to reduce the export of a substantial quantity of virtual water considering local demands, export requirements, and production capabilities of regions.

Technology, Engineering (General). Civil engineering (General)
DOAJ Open Access 2019
The Symptoms of Illness: Does Israel Suffer from “Dutch Disease”?

Ruslana Rachel Palatnik, Tchai Tavor, Liran Voldman

The natural gas revolution in Israel started about two decades ago. Its numerous social impacts include moving to cleaner energy, improving energy security and the balance of trade, tightening international relations, and increasing tax revenue. However, &#8220;Dutch disease&#8221; phenomena&#8212;where the accelerated export of natural gas leads to the strengthening of the local currency, the subsequent weakening of other exporting industries, and rising unemployment&#8212;might suck Israel into the economic slowdown. This study examines whether the strengthening of the New Israeli Shekel (ILS) in recent years is a symptom of &#8220;Dutch disease&#8221;. It is expected that the large-scale export of natural gas will start in 2021 with the development of the major offshore field &#8220;Leviathan&#8221;. Notably, ILS has been appreciating for several years already. We employed the event study approach to analyze the fluctuations of the daily ILS/USD real exchange rate in the years 2009&#8722;2017, combined with the media announcements related to the gas discoveries published during this period. The results revealed that gas-related news does affect the exchange rate and appreciate ILS. GARCH analysis confirms the results.

DOAJ Open Access 2019
The effects of exchange rate depreciations and appreciations on the tourism trade balance: the case of Spain

Cem IŞIK, Magdalena RADULESCU, Aleksandra FEDAJEV

Considering the high current account deficits worldwide and the growing importance of tourism to GDP in many countries, the impact of the exchange rate fluctuations on the tourism demand and on the current account of the balance of payments became crucial during the last decades. That is why many researchers focused on studying this impact in the context of different exchange rate regimes. Tourism has a significant positive impact on Spain’s trade balance, because Spain ranks 1st globally if we consider tourist arrivals. FED proceeded to many adjustments of its currency against other currencies to boost tourism industry. Thus, we estimated the impact of the exchange rate on trade balance in tourism with Turkey in the short and long run by using the non-linear ARDL cointegration approach because Turkey is the one of the main trade partner of Spain and this bilateral relation has not been studied so far in the economic literature. Our results show that the Euro depreciation boosts Turkey tourist arrivals, while the Euro appreciation is not significant for Spain’s tourism balance. Based on these results, we designed some policy recommendations.

Geography (General), Political science
DOAJ Open Access 2017
The effects of real exchange rates and income on the trade balance: A second generation panel data analysis for transition economies and Turkey

Sevgi SEZER

In this study, effects of real exchange rate, domestic and foreign income on the external trade balance has been analysed in the framework of the extended Marshall-Lerner condition and J-curve phenomenon using 1995:Q1-2015:Q4 period data for fourteen transition economy and Turkey by means of panel cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks under crosssectional dependency. Cross-sectional dependence has been analysed with the bias-adjusted cross-section dependence Lagrange multiplier developed by Pesaran et al. (2008) and cross-section dependency has been observed among the countries. Stationary of the series has been tested with the panel unit root test with multiple structural breaks developed by Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2005) and it has been found that series are non-stationary in level. The existence of a cointegration relationship between series has been tested with the panel cointegration test with multiple structural breaks developed by Basher and Westerlund (2009) and a cointegration relationship has been observed between the series. Cointegration coefficients have been estimated with the Pesaran (2006) Common Correlated Effects method. According to the analysis result we found evidence that support the extended Marshall- Lerner condition in Belarus, Bulgaria, Croatia, Hungary, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Russia, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey. Furthermore, the J-curve phenomenon is valid in Belarus, Romania and Slovenia.

Business, Economic theory. Demography
DOAJ Open Access 2012
Empirical evidence of S-curves in the Colombian Evidencia empírica de la curva S en las balanzas comerciales bilaterales de Colombia

Lorena Andrea Palacios-Chacón, Jose Julián Cao-Alvira

<p>The Marshall-Lerner condition, the J-curve and S-curve have emerged as theoretical  and empirical foundations developed for the study of the interaction between exchange rates and international patterns of bilateral trade. They have a significant bearing on thedevelopment of public policy, and are of equal interest to the academic and professional communities. The most recently developed of these theories, the S-Curve, is named after the theorized short-run behavior to be found in the cross-correlation function of the real exchange rate and the trade balance. Considering this theoretical context, the paper seeks empirical evidence of the existence of the S-Curve in the bilateral trade in commodity and non-commodity goods between Colombia and the United States and Venezuela, its main trading partners, for the yearly quarters between 1994:1 and 2009:4.</p><br><p>La condición Marshall-Lerner la curva J y la curva S han surgido como elementos teóricos y empíricos desarrollados para el estudio de la interacción entre las tasas de cambio y los patrones internacionales de comercio bilateral. Estas poseen una relevancia significativa en el desarrollo de política pública nacional y han sido objeto de estudio por la comunidad académica y profesional. La más reciente de estas teorías, la curva S, se conoce como la conducta que se teoriza hallar en la función de correlación cruzada entre la tasa de cambio real y la balanza comercial a corto plazo. Basado en dicho contexto teórico, este artículo busca evidencia empírica sobre la existencia de la curva S en el intercambio comercial bilateral de bienes commodities y non-commodities entre Colombia y Estados Unidos y Venezuela, sus principales socios comerciales, en los trimestres entre 1994:1 y 2009:4.</p>

Economic history and conditions, Finance
DOAJ Open Access 2009
Which way forward for East Asian regional integration? - CGE Model Analysis

Inkyo Cheong, Min Ha Lee

Among various distinctive formulations that have been developed simultaneously in East Asia as of 2009, this paper selected three major paths, ASEAN+3, ASEAN+6 and APEC, to quantitatively examine the economic impacts of Asian regionalization with the CGE model. This paper confirmed previous findings such as the magnitude of economic impact being proportional to the size of membership and the existence of trade diversion effect within all trade blocs. The subsequent KORUS and Korea-EU FTA imposition upon the built CGE base models further verified the effects of hub-and-spoke-ism in East Asia. Jointly, the simulation results implied that the economic impacts of a trade arrangement heavily depend on the subject economy’s reliance on trade with the participating states. It was also found that the impacts were directly proportional to the accrued trade balance of the subject spoke country with both the hub state and the hub-destination. This could have been exaggerated as the scope of this study was limited to East Asia where KORUS FTA was found to be more influential than Korea-EU FTA due to its exceptionally high reliance on the US. On the course of this research to verify the aforementioned findings, however, both GTAP 6 and 7 were adopted, and hence, the economic impacts of China’s accession to the WTO in the global trade system were also empirically proven.

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