The Spatio-Temporal Evolution of Food Production and Self-Sufficiency in China from 1978 to 2020: From the Perspective of Calories

Ensuring national food security is an eternal topic. We unified six categories of food with calorie content including grain, oil, sugar, fruits and vegetables, animal husbandry, and aquatic products on the basis of provincial-level data, and we dynamically evaluated caloric production capacity and the supply–demand equilibrium under the increase in feed-grain consumption as well as the food losses and waste in China from 1978 to 2020 at four different levels. The results show that: (1) From the perspective of food production, the total national calorie production showed a linear growth trend, with a growth rate of 31.7 × 10¹² kcal/year, of which the proportion of grain crops has always exceeded 60%. Most provinces showed significant increasing trends in food calorific production, except for Beijing, Shanghai, and Zhejiang, which showed slightly decreasing trends. The distribution pattern of food calories and their growth rate were high in the east and low in the west. (2) From the perspective of the food supply–demand equilibrium, the national food calorie supply has been in surplus since 1992, but significant spatial heterogeneity is detected, with the Main Marketing Region changing from a tight balance to a short surplus, North China always remaining in calorie shortage, and 15 provinces still presenting supply and demand gaps up to 2020, necessitating the establishment of a more efficient and faster flow and trade system. (3) The national food caloric center has shifted 204.67 km to the northeast, and the population center has shifted to the southwest. The reverse migration of the centers of food supply and demand will further aggravate the pressure on water and soil resources and cause higher requirements for ensuring the circulation and trade system of food supply. The results are of great significance for the timely adjustment of agricultural development policies, making rational use of natural advantages and ensuring China’s food security and sustainable agricultural development.