Hasil untuk "Public finance"

Yunpeng Zhang, Fan Wang, Lijian Wei

Abstract This study explores the impact of personality traits on credit decisions in the context of online lending, utilizing mobile data to construct indicators of conscientiousness and neuroticism. We find that highly conscientious individuals have a lower probability of borrowing and defaulting, while those with high neuroticism are more likely to borrow and face higher default risk. Specifically, neuroticism plays a crucial role in impulsive borrowing, whereas conscientiousness significantly reduces the likelihood of default through diligent repayment willingness. This paper also reveals the moderating effects of self-control, family support, consumption amount, and loan amount on the influence of personality traits in credit decision-making. These findings highlight the psychological mechanisms of personality traits in credit decisions and provide practical implications for financial institutions to improve risk management and decision-making processes.

Horyn Volodymyr P., Sydor Iryna P. , Bula Pavlo V. et al.

The article presents a theoretical substantiation for the public component of green finance. The generalization of scientific viewpoints from domestic and foreign economic science regarding the essence and structure of green finance has enabled the distinction of both public and private components within it. The public component of green finance encompasses financial relationships involving the State, which accompany the formation and utilization of financial resources for the implementation of ecological sustainable development goals. Both general and specific characteristics of public green finance are disclosed, along with the principles of their operation, which include imperativeness, strategic orientation, and the alignment of interests (inclusiveness). Particular attention is given to uncovering the main features of the instruments of green finance that public authorities use in the formation and utilization of financial resources for the realization of the ecological component of sustainable development goals. According to the nature of the action, these instruments are classified into fiscal, regulatory, and universal. Financial instruments of public green finance have also been proposed to be distinguished according to the content of operations in which they are involved (when forming or using financial resources), but a characteristic feature of some such instruments (grants, green loans) is their universality. Key features and problematic aspects of environmental taxation, the implementation of a greenhouse gas emissions trading system, and innovative schemes for converting State debt obligations in exchange for funding green projects are characterized. It is substantiated that under wartime conditions, budgetary programs related to the sphere of green finance have not only environmental but also security significance, aimed at reducing Ukraine’s dependence on imported energy resources and maintaining the country’s energy system in a functional state. Prospects for further research on the theoretical substantiation of public green finance lie in examining the external environmental factors that influence the parameters of their development, as well as developing formalized approaches to assess the impact of public finance instruments on the indicators of the country’s ecological development.

Yao Kouwonou, Koffi Sodokin

This study uses a comparative perspective to investigate how fiscal policies and budgetary mechanisms influence structural economic changes. By constructing a theoretical model rooted in the government’s non-homothetic preferences, we analyze how fiscal variables such as the tax burden, public deficit, and debt levels asymmetrically impact both intensive and extensive economic transformations across various regional settings. Our empirical study, leveraging panel data over time period ranging from 2010 to 2022, identifies region-specific fiscal thresholds that define optimal ranges for these budgetary tools. The results highlight distinct patterns in the fiscal impact across regions as well as the institutional frameworks shaping the relationship between budgetary factors and structural transformation outcomes.

أسماء حسين

Over the past decades, Egypt has made significant progress toward improving the health outcomes of its population through the implementation of the Universal Health Insurance (UHI) Law enacted in 2018. The implementation of the new UHI Law of 2018 requires a major transformation to the health financing system. In addition to, it is essential to move into the digitalization age of healthcare in Egypt.Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) tools have the potential to improve the efficiency of healthcare system, decision-making processes, and optimizing healthcare financing systems. Additionally, AI applications can also set priorities for the resource allocation of governments that are involved in achieving Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs).This study provides an overview of the integration the Machine Learning (ML) approaches into healthcare financing functions to overcome the issues related to the health financing system that accelerate achieving UHC in the Egyptian health system.To achieve this objective, the researchers used a systematic Literature Review by reviewing full papers, charting extracted data, and screening and summarizing findings. This Literature Review was done through the database of PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Web of Science from January 2000 to December 2023.This research revealed that ML and AI applications have a significant impact on many aspects of the health financing domain in the Egyptian health system that supports health Digital Transformation and the role of E-Health Company, the first health digitalization company in Egypt for progress toward UHC in 2030.

Zichen Chen, Jiaao Chen, Jianda Chen et al.

Standard benchmarks fixate on how well large language model (LLM) agents perform in finance, yet say little about whether they are safe to deploy. We argue that accuracy metrics and return-based scores provide an illusion of reliability, overlooking vulnerabilities such as hallucinated facts, stale data, and adversarial prompt manipulation. We take a firm position: financial LLM agents should be evaluated first and foremost on their risk profile, not on their point-estimate performance. Drawing on risk-engineering principles, we outline a three-level agenda: model, workflow, and system, for stress-testing LLM agents under realistic failure modes. To illustrate why this shift is urgent, we audit six API-based and open-weights LLM agents on three high-impact tasks and uncover hidden weaknesses that conventional benchmarks miss. We conclude with actionable recommendations for researchers, practitioners, and regulators: audit risk-aware metrics in future studies, publish stress scenarios alongside datasets, and treat ``safety budget'' as a primary success criterion. Only by redefining what ``good'' looks like can the community responsibly advance AI-driven finance.

Gagan Deep, Akash Deep, William Lamptey

We develop a rigorous walk-forward validation framework for algorithmic trading designed to mitigate overfitting and lookahead bias. Our methodology combines interpretable hypothesis-driven signal generation with reinforcement learning and strict out-of-sample testing. The framework enforces strict information set discipline, employs rolling window validation across 34 independent test periods, maintains complete interpretability through natural language hypothesis explanations, and incorporates realistic transaction costs and position constraints. Validating five market microstructure patterns across 100 US equities from 2015 to 2024, the system yields modest annualized returns (0.55%, Sharpe ratio 0.33) with exceptional downside protection (maximum drawdown -2.76%) and market-neutral characteristics (beta = 0.058). Performance exhibits strong regime dependence, generating positive returns during high-volatility periods (0.60% quarterly, 2020-2024) while underperforming in stable markets (-0.16%, 2015-2019). We report statistically insignificant aggregate results (p-value 0.34) to demonstrate a reproducible, honest validation protocol that prioritizes interpretability and extends naturally to advanced hypothesis generators, including large language models. The key empirical finding reveals that daily OHLCV-based microstructure signals require elevated information arrival and trading activity to function effectively. The framework provides complete mathematical specifications and open-source implementation, establishing a template for rigorous trading system evaluation that addresses the reproducibility crisis in quantitative finance research. For researchers, practitioners, and regulators, this work demonstrates that interpretable algorithmic trading strategies can be rigorously validated without sacrificing transparency or regulatory compliance.

Fengbin Zhu, Junfeng Li, Liangming Pan et al.

Finance decision-making often relies on in-depth data analysis across various data sources, including financial tables, news articles, stock prices, etc. In this work, we introduce FinTMMBench, the first comprehensive benchmark for evaluating temporal-aware multi-modal Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) systems in finance. Built from heterologous data of NASDAQ 100 companies, FinTMMBench offers three significant advantages. 1) Multi-modal Corpus: It encompasses a hybrid of financial tables, news articles, daily stock prices, and visual technical charts as the corpus. 2) Temporal-aware Questions: Each question requires the retrieval and interpretation of its relevant data over a specific time period, including daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual periods. 3) Diverse Financial Analysis Tasks: The questions involve 10 different financial analysis tasks designed by domain experts, including information extraction, trend analysis, sentiment analysis and event detection, etc. We further propose a novel TMMHybridRAG method, which first leverages LLMs to convert data from other modalities (e.g., tabular, visual and time-series data) into textual format and then incorporates temporal information in each node when constructing graphs and dense indexes. Its effectiveness has been validated in extensive experiments, but notable gaps remain, highlighting the challenges presented by our FinTMMBench.

Zeshan Alam, Yousaf Ali, Dragan Pamucar

Abstract In South Asia, Pakistan has a long and deadly history of floods that cause losses to various infrastructures, lives, and industries. This study aims to identify the most appropriate flood risk mitigation strategies that the government of Pakistan should adopt. The assessment of flood risk mitigation strategies in this study is based on certain criteria, which are analyzed using the fuzzy full consistency method. Moreover, flood risk mitigation strategies are evaluated by using the fuzzy weighted aggregated sum product assessment (WASPAS) method, considering previously prioritized criteria. According to the results, lack of governance, lack of funding and resources, and lack of flood control infrastructure are the most significant flood intensifying factors and act as major criteria for assessing flood risk mitigation strategies in Pakistan. Adopting hard engineering strategies (e.g., dams, reservoirs, river straightening and dredging, embankments, and flood relief channels), maintaining existing infrastructure, and adopting soft engineering strategies (flood plain zoning, comprehensive flood risk assessment, and sophisticated flood modeling) are identified as the top three flood risk mitigation strategies by the fuzzy WASPAS method. The highest weight (0.98) was assigned to the adoption of hard engineering strategies to mitigate flood risks. The study introduces a novel dimension by analyzing the real-time impact of the unprecedented 2022 floods, during which approximately one-third of the nation was submerged. This focus on a recent and highly significant event enhances the study’s relevance and contributes a unique perspective to the existing literature on flood risk management. The study recommends that the government of Pakistan should prioritize hard engineering strategies for effective flood risk mitigation. It also recommends that the government should incorporate these strategies in the national policy framework to reduce flood losses in the future.

آيه محمد غنيم احمد, هند مقرض, فيبي راغب

استهدف البحث الحالي تحليلِ العلاقةِ بين التحوُّل الرقمي ودوره في رفع كفاءة الأداء المؤسسي وذلك بوضع البراعة التنظيمية كمتغيرٍ وسيطٍ وذلك كدراسةٍ ميدانيةٍ على قطاع البنوكِ ببورسعيد، واعتمدت الباحثة على المنهج الوصفي التحليلي القائمُ على تفسير العلاقةِ بين المتغيراتِ المُتعلقةِ بالبحث، كما استخدمت الباحثة الاستبيانِ كأداةٍ لجمع البيانات من عينةِ البحث المُتمثِّلة في 265 مفردة من العاملين بقطاع البنوك ببورسعيد، وتم اختبار الفروض من خلالِ الاعتماد على أساليبِ التحليلِ الوصفي التحليلي التي تتناسب مع طبيعة المتغيرات وطبيعة البيانات، واخضعت البيانات للتحليل الإحصائي باستخدام برنامجSPSS ، وجاءت نتائج البحث بأن هناك تأثير ذو دلالة إحصائية لأبعادِ التحوُّل الرقمي (العنصر البشري والتكنولوجيا) على أبعاد البراعة التنظيمية (الاستكشاف والاستغلال)، ووجود تأثير ذو دلالة إحصائية لأبعادِ البراعة التنظيمية (الاسكشاف والاستغلال) على الأداء المؤسسي، كما أن هناك تأثير لأبعادِ التحوُّل الرقمي (العنصر البشري والتكنولوجيا) على الأداء المؤسسي، كما أن البراعة التنظيمية تتوسط العلاقة بين التحوُّل الرقمي والأداء المؤسسي، وجاء البحث بِعِدَّة توصياتٍ جاء أهمها أن المؤسسات يتوجب عليها زيادة الاهتمام بتدريب العنصر البشري على التحوُّل الرقمي لزيادة رفع كفاءة الأداء المؤسسي الخاص بها.

Amrutha Muralidhar, Muralidhar Lakkanna

The evolution of cryptocurrency and decentralized finance (DeFi) marks a significant shift in the financial landscape, making it more accessible, inclusive, and participative for various societal groups. However, this transition from traditional financial institutions to DeFi demands a meticulous policy framework that strikes a balance between innovation and safeguarding consumer interests, security, and regulatory compliance. In this script we explore the imperative need for regulatory frameworks overseeing cryptocurrencies and DeFi, aiming to leverage their potential for inclusive economic advancement. It underscores the prevalent challenges within conventional financial systems, juxtaposing them with the transformative potential offered by these emergent financial paradigms. By highlighting the role of robust regulations, we examine their capacity to ensure user security, fortify market resilience, and spur innovative strides. We aim to proffer viable strategies for formulating regulatory structures that harmonize the twin objectives of fostering innovation and upholding fairness within financial ecosystems.

Rubina Zadourian

The objective of this work is the investigation of complexity, asymmetry, stochasticity and non-linearity of the financial and economic systems by using the tools of statistical mechanics and information theory. More precisely, this thesis concerns statistical-based modeling and empirical analyses with applications in finance, forecasting, production processes and game theory. In these areas the time dependence of probability distributions is of prime interest and can be measured or exactly calculated for model systems. The correlation coefficients and moments are among the useful quantities to describe the dynamics and the correlations between random variables. However, the full investigation can only be achieved if the probability distribution function of the variable is known; its derivation is one of the main focuses of the present work.

Xinshuai Dong, Haoyue Dai, Yewen Fan et al.

Financial data is generally time series in essence and thus suffers from three fundamental issues: the mismatch in time resolution, the time-varying property of the distribution - nonstationarity, and causal factors that are important but unknown/unobserved. In this paper, we follow a causal perspective to systematically look into these three demons in finance. Specifically, we reexamine these issues in the context of causality, which gives rise to a novel and inspiring understanding of how the issues can be addressed. Following this perspective, we provide systematic solutions to these problems, which hopefully would serve as a foundation for future research in the area.

علاء ابراهيم شحاته حسن الليثي

استهدف هذا البحث قياس تأثير اثر استراتيجية الابتکار علي تعظيم قيمة المنشاة في ضوء التحول الالکتروني وذلک بالتطبيق علي البنوک المقيدة في البورصة المصرية وقد بلغ عدد البنوک المقيدة في البورصة المصرية 13 بنک وهم : مصرف ابوظبي الاسلامي ، وبنک البرکة ، وبنک القاهرة ،و البنک التجاري الدولي ،و بنک کريدي اجريکول مصر،والبنک المصري الخليجي،و البنک المصري لتنمية الصادرات ،وبنک فيصل الاسلامي ، وبنک التعمير والاسکان ، وبنک الکويت الوطني ، وبنک قطر الوطني الاهلي ، وبنک الشرکة المصرفية العربية الدولية ، وبنک قناة السويس . وقد عرض استمارة استبيان علي عدد من العاملين بتلک البنوک للاجابة عليها وذلک لتحقيق هدف البحث . وقد توصل الباحث الي وجود تأثير ايجابي معنوي لابعاد تطبيق استراتيجية الابتکار بأنواعها المختلفة علي تعظيم قيمة المنشأة في ضوء التحول الالکتروني . حيث انه يوجد تأثير معنوي لاستراتيجية الابتکار على قيمة المنشأة کما انه يوجد تأثير معنوي غير مباشر لاستراتيجية الابتکار على تعزيز قيمة المنشأة في ظل توسيط الافصاح المحاسبي.

Yihalem Abebe Belay, Mezgebu Yitayal, Asmamaw Atnafu et al.

Abstract Background Understanding the experiences, needs, preferences, and behaviors of people living with HIV (PLHIV) are critical to tailor HIV treatment. However, there is limited empirical evidence in Ethiopia on the views of PLHIV regarding their experiences with current antiretroviral therapy (ART) services and preferred models of HIV treatment. Hence, this study aimed to explore the patients’ experiences of taking medications and preferences for ART service provision in Northwest Ethiopia. Methods A phenomenological study design was employed. In this study, stable and 18 years old and above PLHIVs, who had been using ART service at four public hospitals and two health centers in East Gojjam, West Gojjam and Awi zones, and Bahir Dar city administration of Amhara National Regional State, Northwest Ethiopia, were purposively selected. Fifteen in-depth interviews were conducted from July 2021 to September 2021 to collect data. ATLAS.ti version 9 software was used for coding translated transcripts. A thematic analysis approach was employed. Findings Participants in this study had reported positive and negative experiences in receiving ART services and also varied preferences toward ART service features. The study identified five themes on experiences for ART service and 15 attributes of ART service characteristics. The identified themes were stigma, time, availability of drugs and providers, costs for clinic visits, and provider-patient interaction. The fifteen attributes were buddy system, ART refill (individualized or group), ART packaging and labeling, drug formulation and administration, ART room labeling, distance, location of service, preferences on involvement in treatment decision-making, the person providing ART refills, provider’s attitude, spatial arrangement of ART room, time of health facility operation, time spent at clinics, and total cost of the visit. Conclusions The results raise awareness for the positive and negative experiences of patients informing us about barriers and supporting factors in ART service provision. They open up the potential for HIV treatment service improvement. The preferences of PLHIVs toward ART service delivery features were heterogeneous. Policy and program efforts should tailor ART services that suit patients’ needs and priorities in Ethiopia. Future research should further assess the reasons for patients’ distrust of the community ART delivery models.

Yuriy V. Belousov, Olga I. Timofeeva

Budget transparency is an effective tool in improving the quality of public budget executions. Ranking countries, regions and municipalities based on budget transparency is of interest for scientists and professionals in the whole world, including Russia. Methodologies behind budget transparency are a rather complex tool, the quality of which largely affects the results. This paper analyzes the available and applied ranking methodologies — in particular, the Open Budget Index (OBI) by the International Budget Partnership (IBP), transparency indices of local budgets in Kazakhstan and Croatia, and the ranking of the Russian Federation’s constituent territories by the level of budget data openness. During the analysis we identified the methodological principles of each of the considered approaches, their differences and similarities. Special attention was paid to problematic issues of the International Budget Partnership’s methodology. It is especially important to specify these problems, as the IBP methodology is a model in measuring the level of budget transparency. By using the ranking of Russian regions in terms of budget transparency levels, we demonstrate how to use special techniques and methods targeted at improving the quality of managing public fiscal performance.

ضياء فتحى العدل

يهدف هذا البحث إلى تقدير أثر النمو الاقتصادى على البطالة فى الحالة المصرية، باستخدام بيانات الفترة 1991-2019. وذلک عن طريق تقدير معامل "أوکيون" فى إطار مقارن مع بعض دول منطقة الشرق الأوسط، ثم يحاول البحث فى مرحلة ثانية أن يفسر الانخفاض النسبى فى قيمة معامل "أوکيون" فى الحالة المصرية. وتوصل البحث إلى معنوية العلاقة العکسية بين النمو والبطالة فى جميع دول العينة، مع تفاوت بينها فى قوة تأثير النمو على البطالة. وجاءت قيمة معامل "أوکيون" فى الحالة المصرية فى مستوى شديد الانخفاض بالنسبة لدول العينة، حيث اتضح أنه بزيادة معدل النمو الاقتصادى فى مصر بنسبة 1%، تنخفض نسبة البطالة بحوالى 0.156 %. وتوصل البحث أيضاً إلى أن العنصر الأکثر تأثيراً فى إضعاف أثر النمو على البطالة فى الحالة المصرية فى فترة البحث کان هو التغيير الهيکلى المتمثل فى انخفاض الوزن النسبى للقطاعات الأکثر استيعاباً للعمالة فى الاقتصاد المصرى. حيث اتضح أنه بانخفاض الوزن النسبى لتلک القطاعات بنسبة 1%، تزيد نسبة البطالة بحوالى 0.447%. ويقترح البحث، لتقوية تأثير النمو على البطالة، أن يتم تعويض الانخفاض فى الوزن النسبى لقطاع الزراعة بالعمل على زيادة الوزن النسبى لقطاع الصناعات التحويلية، إذ يُعد من أکثر القطاعات استيعاباً للعمالة، کما أنه يخدم فى مجال تنويع الصادرات، کما أن زيادة نصيبه النسبى فى الناتج المحلى الإجمالى يعد تطوراً مهماً فى مجال التنمية.

Sami Kalkan

Eşyanın gümrük kıymetinin belirlenmesinde tarih boyunca çeşitli etkenler rol oynamıştır. GATT VII. Maddesinin Uygulanmasına İlişkin Anlaşma ile Gümrük kıymetinin tespiti için uygulanacak yöntemler ve ilkeler kabul edilerek son halini almıştır. Yöntem ve ilkelere göre Gümrük kıymetinin belirlenmesinde asli unsur olarak eşyanın ticari işlem kıymetini esas alan satış bedeli yöntemi benimsenmiştir. Vergilendirmenin daha adil ve objektif yapılabilmesi için kıymet tespit yöntemlerinin sınırları somut olarak çizilmiş ve uygulamada meydana gelen sorunları ortadan kaldırmak için detaylı düzenlemeler yapılmıştır. Bu çalışma ile eşyanın gümrük kıymetinin tespitinde satış bedeli yönteminin uygulanması, satış bedeline dahil edilebilecek veya edilemeyecek durumlar ve satış bedeli yönteminin terk edilip bir sonraki yönteme geçilmesine neden olan durumlar irdelenmiştir.

Bruno Bouchard, Grégoire Loeper, Xiaolu Tan

Using Dupire's notion of vertical derivative, we provide a functional (path-dependent) extension of the Itô's formula of Gozzi and Russo (2006) that applies to C^{0,1}-functions of continuous weak Dirichlet processes. It is motivated and illustrated by its applications to the hedging or superhedging problems of path-dependent options in mathematical finance, in particular in the case of model uncertainty

Ali Raheman, Anton Kolonin, Ben Goertzel et al.

We present the cognitive architecture of an autonomous agent for active portfolio management in decentralized finance, involving activities such as asset selection, portfolio balancing, liquidity provision, and trading. Partial implementation of the architecture is provided and supplied with preliminary results and conclusions.

عبدالناصر نصير

هدف الدراسة: تهدف هذه الدراسة إلى توضيح دور مدخل محاسبة تکاليف تدفق المواد في تحقيق الاستدامة لشرکة مصر للأسمنت (قنا). نتائج الدراسة: کشفت مراجعة الأدبيات السابقة عن وجود اهتمام عالمي متزايد بمدخل محاسبة تکاليف تدفق المواد. على الجانب الآخر، هناک نقص في المعرفة المتاحة حول مدخل محاسبة تکاليف تدفق المواد في مصر. کما کشفت نتائج دراسة الحالة في شرکة مصر للأسمنت (قنا) من خلال بيانات فعلية عن عام (2019م) عن قدرة مدخل محاسبة تکاليف تدفق المواد على توفير معلومات مالية وغير مالية تفصيلية في کل عملية من عمليات الإنتاج. فقد أمکن تحديد کمية الفاقد وخسائره في کل مرکز کمية، مما يکشف عن مستويات عدم الکفاءة في عمليات الإنتاج ومراکز الکمية المسئولة عن هذا الفاقد. کما تم فصل خسائر الفاقد والتقرير عنها بصورة مستقلة عن تکلفة المنتج، مما يحقق الشفافية في المحاسبة عن التکاليف. ومن خلال هذه المعلومات ستتمکن الشرکة الآن من إدراک خسائر الفاقد والتي ربما لم يتم الاعتراف بها من قبل بطريقة سليمة، وأيضاً إدراک المنافع الاقتصادية والبيئية والاجتماعية المحتملة نتيجة تخفيض الفاقد. ومن ثم سوف تتمکن الإدارة من اتخاذ القرارات الاستراتيجية التي تحقق الاستدامة للشرکة.