Agentic AI and Occupational Displacement: A Multi-Regional Task Exposure Analysis of Emerging Labor Market Disruption
Ravish Gupta, Saket Kumar
This paper extends the Acemoglu-Restrepo task exposure framework to address the labor market effects of agentic artificial intelligence systems: autonomous AI agents capable of completing entire occupational workflows rather than discrete tasks. Unlike prior automation technologies that substitute for individual subtasks, agentic AI systems execute end-to-end workflows involving multi-step reasoning, tool invocation, and autonomous decision-making, substantially expanding occupational displacement risk beyond what existing task-level analyses capture. We introduce the Agentic Task Exposure (ATE) score, a composite measure computed algorithmically from O*NET task data using calibrated adoption parameters--not a regression estimate--incorporating AI capability scores, workflow coverage factors, and logistic adoption velocity. Applying the ATE framework across five major US technology regions (Seattle-Tacoma, San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, New York, and Boston) over a 2025-2030 horizon, we find that 93.2% of the 236 analyzed occupations across six information-intensive SOC groups (financial, legal, healthcare, healthcare support, sales, and administrative/clerical) cross the moderate-risk threshold (ATE >= 0.35) in Tier 1 regions by 2030, with credit analysts, judges, and sustainability specialists reaching ATE scores of 0.43-0.47. We simultaneously identify seventeen emerging occupational categories benefiting from reinstatement effects, concentrated in human-AI collaboration, AI governance, and domain-specific AI operations roles. Our findings carry implications for workforce transition policy, regional economic planning, and the temporal dynamics of labor market adjustment
Second chances in hospitality: analyzing the employment prospects for rehabilitated offenders
Janelle Chan
Although the unique job characteristics of the hospitality industry present opportunities for the inclusion of rehabilitated offenders, which bring societal and economic benefits, this area remains underexplored in the hospitality literature. This study addresses this gap by examining the factors influencing the employment of rehabilitated offenders and analyzing the conditions under which their employment can be successful. The research framework transitions from broad to specific. Using a constructivist grounded theory approach, the study conducted interviews with expert panels, including representatives from the government’s correctional services; senior hotel managers; and academics in criminology, sociology and hospitality management. The study indicates that senior managers generally support hiring rehabilitated offenders in the hospitality industry primarily due to labor shortages. However, perceived reoffending risks vary across departments. Criminology and sociology experts analyzed these findings, identifying conditions for successful employment in hospitality. Socially, the findings highlight the potential for the hospitality industry to play a crucial role in the reintegration of rehabilitated offenders, thereby reducing recidivism while promoting social inclusion. This scenario can lead to a more inclusive society where individuals with criminal records are given a second chance to contribute positively. This study identifies challenges in using rehabilitated offenders and examines managerial perspectives. It transitions from general observations to specific insights from senior managers and academic experts, enriching the understanding of career dynamics, human capital and labor markets in hospitality. It also offers practical guidance for integrating and recruiting individuals with criminal records.
Handbook of human mobility and migration
Özlem Sefer
This book discusses different types of migration and mobilities, relies on empirical data and combines interdisciplinary approaches, including sociology, political science, migration studies, demographic studies and geography. The book is split into three parts, with the first part of the book is arranged as ‘rethinking’ part, part two is ‘mapping’ part and the last part is ‘governing’ part. The first part of the book, ‘rethinking’ part, considers the main concepts of migration and mobility such as social stratification in migration, migrant selection, return migration, the relationship between the internal and international migration. Mobility is examined from a historical perspective and the role of technology in mobility practices is discussed. The meaning of being a migrant as a category and inequality among immigrants within the framework of economic, legal and ethno-racial channels that impact inequality is analyzed. Migrant selection is another topic that is addressed by focusing on selection on education, selection on labor market characteristics, selection on health and selection on attitudes and personality traits. The role of economic, legal and family conditions on the mobility and return migration (remigration) is one of the topics of this part and the inadequacy of data while measuring migration practices is highlighted. International and internal migration is examined and it is emphasized that they are not totally separate in spite of the popularity of international migration when compared to internal migration in the literature. Part two, ‘mapping’ part, focuses on different type of mobilities and migration such as international student mobility, child migration and international retirement migration through the empirical data. The concept of social stratification is examined and highlighted in most of the chapters of the book, especially in ‘rethinking’ and ‘mapping’ part. The income, educational level, gender and age is considered while analyzing social profiles of immigrants. The use of different methods and a number of databases can be found in the chapters and the use of empirical data makes easy to interpret the reasons and findings for the reader. For instance, international movements that happen between neighbouring countries because of social stratification
Strengthening the rural population in the context of forming the personnel sovereignty of the region
E.V. Mamonkina, O. O. Isaeva
The rural population traditionally ensures food security, the development of the agro-industrial complex, and the maintenance of the human resource potential of regions. In the context of demographic decline, migration outflow, staff shortages, and competition among regions, the issue of retaining rural residents becomes particularly relevant for the personnel sovereignty of the region. This study examines the reasons for the migration of rural residents, their motivational attitudes, and factors that promote or hinder the retention of population in rural areas. Special attention is given to analyzing structural changes in the labor market, the dynamics of the population's size and migration sentiments, as well as evaluating existing support measures and infrastructure development. The research aims to identify systematic factors that determine the sustainability and reproduction of human resource potential in rural areas, as well as to develop recommendations for creating conditions that promote population retention and enhance social and professional motivation. The study analyzes official statistical data from Rosstat and Mordoviastat, expert assessments, and the results of a survey of 520 rural residents from seven municipal districts of the Republic of Mordovia. Statistical analysis methods, comparative and index analysis, as well as sociological methods, including focus groups, were employed. The research revealed a steady decline in the rural population, especially among the youth, which leads to a labor shortage in the agricultural sector. The main reasons for migration are associated with low wages, limited opportunities for professional growth, and dissatisfaction with the quality of social infrastructure. The labor shortage is most acutely observed in construction, manufacturing, and agriculture. The rural population is considered in light of its dual role in forming the personnel sovereignty of the region: firstly, as a basic source of labor for the agro-industrial complex and related sectors of the rural economy; and secondly, as a donor of labor resources for urban areas of the region. To retain the rural population, comprehensive measures are necessary: the development of rural infrastructure, support for small businesses, increased wages, expansion of educational and professional opportunities, and state support for young professionals and families. The implementation of the proposed measures will enhance the attractiveness of rural life, reduce migration outflow, and ensure sustainable human resource development in the region, which is the foundation of its socio-economic stability and competitiveness.
Sentiment and Social Signals in the Climate Crisis: A Survey on Analyzing Social Media Responses to Extreme Weather Events
Pouya Shaeri, Yasaman Mohammadpour, Alimohammad Beigi
et al.
Extreme weather events driven by climate change, such as wildfires, floods, and heatwaves, prompt significant public reactions on social media platforms. Analyzing the sentiment expressed in these online discussions can offer valuable insights into public perception, inform policy decisions, and enhance emergency responses. Although sentiment analysis has been widely studied in various fields, its specific application to climate-induced events, particularly in real-time, high-impact situations like the 2025 Los Angeles forest fires, remains underexplored. In this survey, we thoroughly examine the methods, datasets, challenges, and ethical considerations related to sentiment analysis of social media content concerning weather and climate change events. We present a detailed taxonomy of approaches, ranging from lexicon-based and machine learning models to the latest strategies driven by large language models (LLMs). Additionally, we discuss data collection and annotation techniques, including weak supervision and real-time event tracking. Finally, we highlight several open problems, such as misinformation detection, multimodal sentiment extraction, and model alignment with human values. Our goal is to guide researchers and practitioners in effectively understanding sentiment during the climate crisis era.
DynamiX: Large-Scale Dynamic Social Network Simulator
Yanhui Sun, Wu Liu, Wentao Wang
et al.
Understanding the intrinsic mechanisms of social platforms is an urgent demand to maintain social stability. The rise of large language models provides significant potential for social network simulations to capture attitude dynamics and reproduce collective behaviors. However, existing studies mainly focus on scaling up agent populations, neglecting the dynamic evolution of social relationships. To address this gap, we introduce DynamiX, a novel large-scale social network simulator dedicated to dynamic social network modeling. DynamiX uses a dynamic hierarchy module for selecting core agents with key characteristics at each timestep, enabling accurate alignment of real-world adaptive switching of user roles. Furthermore, we design distinct dynamic social relationship modeling strategies for different user types. For opinion leaders, we propose an information-stream-based link prediction method recommending potential users with similar stances, simulating homogeneous connections, and autonomous behavior decisions. For ordinary users, we construct an inequality-oriented behavior decision-making module, effectively addressing unequal social interactions and capturing the patterns of relationship adjustments driven by multi-dimensional factors. Experimental results demonstrate that DynamiX exhibits marked improvements in attitude evolution simulation and collective behavior analysis compared to static networks. Besides, DynamiX opens a new theoretical perspective on follower growth prediction, providing empirical evidence for opinion leaders cultivation.
An Investigation into the Causal Mechanism of Political Opinion Dynamics: A Model of Hierarchical Coarse-Graining with Community-Bounded Social Influence
Valeria Widler, Barbara Kaminska, Andre C. R. Martins
et al.
The increasing polarization in democratic societies is an emergent outcome of political opinion dynamics. Yet, the fundamental mechanisms behind the formation of political opinions, from individual beliefs to collective consensus, remain unknown. Understanding that a causal mechanism must account for both bottom-up and top-down influences, we conceptualize political opinion dynamics as hierarchical coarse-graining, where microscale opinions integrate into a macro-scale state variable. Using the CODA (Continuous Opinions Discrete Actions) model, we simulate Bayesian opinion updating, social identity-based information integration, and migration between social identity groups to represent higher-level connectivity. This results in coarse-graining across micro, meso, and macro levels. Our findings show that higher-level connectivity shapes information integration, yielding three regimes: independent (disconnected, local convergence), parallel (fast, global convergence), and iterative (slow, stepwise convergence). In the iterative regime, low connectivity fosters transient diversity, indicating an informed consensus. In all regimes, time-scale separation leads to downward causation, where agents converge on the aggregate majority choice, driving consensus. Critically, any degree of coherent higher-level information integration can overcome misalignment via global downward causation. The results highlight how emergent properties of the causal mechanism, such as downward causation, are essential for consensus and may inform more precise investigations into polarized political discourse.
Financial analysis of enterprises' costs for occupational safety at risk
I. Sarybayeva, A. S. Iskakova, G. Amanova
et al.
This study examines the financial analysis of labor protection costs by companies at risk. It is noted that cost savings will be achieved in enterprises that pay close attention to labor protection, which will reduce the risks of industrial accidents and occupational diseases. The study conducted a thorough review of the literature in the field of occupational safety and decent and safe working conditions. To conduct a financial cost analysis and to identify specifics in the field of occupational safety, data from five enterprises in various sectors of the economy were used. To assess the effectiveness of the proposed methods, economic analysis tools such as cost–benefit analysis and return on investment (ROI) were employed. The adaptive approach ensured that the industry-specific characteristics of Kazakhstani enterprises were considered, enabling the application of a standardized yet flexible cost accounting methodology. The authors note that, for the first time in the country, expenses for occupational risk assessment and workplace certification were introduced in 2024. The authors conducted an in-depth financial analysis of the structure and directions of labor protection costs across various sectors of the economy, including a comparative analysis using data from three socially significant enterprises focused on sustainable development. The study covered three years of data indicators and included ten key categories of expenses. The financial analysis revealed both general patterns and unique features of accounting for labor protection costs at each enterprise. The identified spending trends indicate an active approach to workplace safety, resulting in significant investments in employee training, personal protective equipment, and improved working conditions. These measures aim not only to ensure compliance with regulatory requirements but also to minimize production risks specific to each industry.
Social status of professions in Kazakhstan: the role of corporate social responsibility and investment policy
K. Tel, B. Smagambet
In modern Kazakhstani society, the social status of occupations is determined not only by wage levels but also by public recognition, career growth prospects, and the degree of business involvement in developing the nation’s human capital. Corporate social responsibility (CSR) and investment policy play a crucial role in shaping public opinion about the prestige of different professions. This article explores how CSR and investment policies influence the social status of professions in Kazakhstan. While existing studies have addressed CSR from an ethical or economic perspective, its sociological effects, particularly on professional prestige, remain understudied. The study employs a qualitative case study design, focusing on Tengizchevroil LLP (TCO), one of the country’s largest foreign investors. Drawing on TCO’s 2023 Corporate Responsibility Report and related public documents, the analysis demonstrates how targeted investments in human capital, education, and local infrastructure contribute to enhancing the public image of various occupational groups. The findings indicate that CSR and investment strategies not only improve material conditions but also act as cultural and symbolic drivers of occupational valorization. The article contributes to broader debates on sustainable development, labor market transformation, and the role of business in shaping social hierarchies in post-Soviet contexts.
Economic Activity of Ukrainian Women: Current Problems and Possibilities of Implementation
M. Olena, Demchenko Iryna, Bulyha Nataliia
The article is devoted to highlighting the features of the implementation of women’s economic activity in the context of modern trends in the labor market of Ukraine. Based on the conducted research, the reasons and factors of restrictions on women’s participation in the labor force were identified. Socio-economic obstacles to the full disclosure of their economic potential were identified, taking into account the specifics of the conditions of a full-scale war in Ukraine. The issues of ensuring decent employment conditions and economic participation of the population are relevant for most countries in the world. Research into the possibilities of increasing economic activity is especially relevant for European countries with a high level of demographic aging, a reduction in the size of the labor force, and, accordingly, an increase in the labor force deficit. Today, Ukraine is faced with the problem of a significant labor force deficit. It arose under the joint action of factors of both a long-term nature (natural demographic decline of the economically active population) and (to a greater extent) short- term factors of military events and their consequences (large-scale migration, forced resettlement, mobilization of men). At the same time, the analysis of the situation on the Ukrainian labor market indicates the existence of a certain paradox: along with a significant labor shortage, there is a relatively low level of population participation in the labor force, especially among women. According to pre-war data, Ukraine lagged behind most European countries in terms of women’s economic activity. The hypothesis for conducting the study was several assumptions about the existence of socio-economic obstacles to women’s employment, for example, the difficulty of combining employment with family responsibilities due to the lack of services and social infrastructure facilities that would support working women, help with job search, retraining, training; insufficient supply of jobs with flexible work schedules from employers, etc. Despite significant progress in expanding women’s labor rights around the world, gender issues of equal participation in the labor market remain relevant not only for Ukraine, but even for the most economically developed countries. Thus, the purpose of the study is to analyze trends in women’s economic activity in conditions of full-scale military aggression, identify factors and obstacles to their employment, and develop recommendations for eliminating barriers to women’s full participation in the workforce. The object of the study is a set of women of economically active age. The study used methods of generalization of information, statistical analysis of data, empirical sociological research, which combined a national online survey of women of working age (18—59 years), a sample size of 716 respondents; flexible interviews with experts — representatives of the State Employment Service of Ukraine, the Federation of Employers of Ukraine and non-governmental organizations that are concerned with supporting women’s economic activity and protecting their labor rights; logical analysis methods — to form conclusions and proposals. Based on the results of the study, recommendations were developed regarding opportunities to increase women’s participation in the labor market, realize their economic potential, overcome existing barriers to employment, and improve conditions for combining employment with family responsibilities.
Creative Potential of the Population is the Key Factor in the Transition to Noonomy
S. Bodrunov, A. Shabunova, L. Babich
et al.
The authors examine the state of creative potential of the population, which in modern conditions is becoming the main factor in the transition towards new economic realities. The aim of the study is to analyze the main theoretical and methodological approaches to defining the essence of creative potential, its developmental trends in the regions of the Russian Federation, and to identify factors influencing its reproduction. The methodological basis of the study is the concept of qualitative characteristics of the population by N. M. Rimashevskaya, modern scientific publications in this field, as well as the rovisions of the noonomy theory on the problems of the relationship between the knowledge intensity of social production and the creative component of labor in the process of the amorphosis of the politicaleconomic category of “labor” in the course of the modern nootransition of social development. The empirical basis of the study was provided by data from regional monitoring of the quality of labor potential, carried out in the Vologda region since 1997. It has been established that Russia has the potential to increase the creative activity of its population, which depends both on the emergence of objective demand from enterprises and organizations, in particular, high-performance jobs, and on the internal motivation and abilities of workers. In this process, state policy in the field of education is vital, which should be aimed at prioritizing the development of the creative potential of young people. In this paradigm, it seems beneficial to develop noonomy centers in different regions based on the methodology of the S. Y. Witte Institute for New Industrial Development (St. Petersburg), and on the theoretical and practical aspects of the theory of noonomy.
FLASH: Federated Learning-Based LLMs for Advanced Query Processing in Social Networks through RAG
Sai Puppala, Ismail Hossain, Md Jahangir Alam
et al.
Our paper introduces a novel approach to social network information retrieval and user engagement through a personalized chatbot system empowered by Federated Learning GPT. The system is designed to seamlessly aggregate and curate diverse social media data sources, including user posts, multimedia content, and trending news. Leveraging Federated Learning techniques, the GPT model is trained on decentralized data sources to ensure privacy and security while providing personalized insights and recommendations. Users interact with the chatbot through an intuitive interface, accessing tailored information and real-time updates on social media trends and user-generated content. The system's innovative architecture enables efficient processing of input files, parsing and enriching text data with metadata, and generating relevant questions and answers using advanced language models. By facilitating interactive access to a wealth of social network information, this personalized chatbot system represents a significant advancement in social media communication and knowledge dissemination.
Macroeconomic Factors, Industrial Indexes and Bank Spread in Brazil
Carlos Alberto Durigan Junior, André Taue Saito, Daniel Reed Bergmann
et al.
The main objective of this paper is to Identify which macroe conomic factors and industrial indexes influenced the total Brazilian banking spread between March 2011 and March 2015. This paper considers subclassification of industrial activities in Brazil. Monthly time series data were used in multivariate linear regression models using Eviews (7.0). Eighteen variables were considered as candidates to be determinants. Variables which positively influenced bank spread are; Default, IPIs (Industrial Production Indexes) for capital goods, intermediate goods, du rable consumer goods, semi-durable and non-durable goods, the Selic, GDP, unemployment rate and EMBI +. Variables which influence negatively are; Consumer and general consumer goods IPIs, IPCA, the balance of the loan portfolio and the retail sales index. A p-value of 05% was considered. The main conclusion of this work is that the progress of industry, job creation and consumption can reduce bank spread. Keywords: Credit. Bank spread. Macroeconomics. Industrial Production Indexes. Finance.
Discovering Latent Themes in Social Media Messaging: A Machine-in-the-Loop Approach Integrating LLMs
Tunazzina Islam, Dan Goldwasser
Grasping the themes of social media content is key to understanding the narratives that influence public opinion and behavior. The thematic analysis goes beyond traditional topic-level analysis, which often captures only the broadest patterns, providing deeper insights into specific and actionable themes such as "public sentiment towards vaccination", "political discourse surrounding climate policies," etc. In this paper, we introduce a novel approach to uncovering latent themes in social media messaging. Recognizing the limitations of the traditional topic-level analysis, which tends to capture only overarching patterns, this study emphasizes the need for a finer-grained, theme-focused exploration. Traditional theme discovery methods typically involve manual processes and a human-in-the-loop approach. While valuable, these methods face challenges in scalability, consistency, and resource intensity in terms of time and cost. To address these challenges, we propose a machine-in-the-loop approach that leverages the advanced capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs). To demonstrate our approach, we apply our framework to contentious topics, such as climate debate and vaccine debate. We use two publicly available datasets: (1) the climate campaigns dataset of 21k Facebook ads and (2) the COVID-19 vaccine campaigns dataset of 9k Facebook ads. Our quantitative and qualitative analysis shows that our methodology yields more accurate and interpretable results compared to the baselines. Our results not only demonstrate the effectiveness of our approach in uncovering latent themes but also illuminate how these themes are tailored for demographic targeting in social media contexts. Additionally, our work sheds light on the dynamic nature of social media, revealing the shifts in the thematic focus of messaging in response to real-world events.
Infrastructural modernization of the agro-industrial complex as the most important vector of accelerated development of rural areas
M. Karimbergenova, D. K. Azimbayeva, S. Saginova
The article is devoted to the issues of socio-economic development of rural areas - one of the key performance indicators of the agro-industrial complex of Kazakhstan. The aim is to study the economic potential of rural areas, to determine the prospective directions of production and social transformation of Ushterek village of Yevgenyevsky rural district of Pavlodar region. Methods - target, hypothesis setting, strategic planning and forecasting were used to identify problem situations, setting goals and solving problems. Justification and argumentation of reasoning in the work are obtained on the basis of analytical information, including comparison, evaluation, generalization and systematization of statistical data. Results - the authors analyzed the degree of provision with social infrastructure of this region. The influence of various factors on the expansion of this sphere is investigated. The range of problems that hinder the effective activity of this sector is outlined. It is noted that the realization of the economic potential of rural areas will allow solving a number of issues of modernization of infrastructure facilities. Conclusions - the regional system of social resources should take into account the main interests of the state, aimed at improving the quality of life and welfare of the population. These are, first of all, solving the housing problem and meeting the growing needs of residents in quality housing, improving environmental conditions, strengthening the professional training of workers as a basis for increasing labor productivity and the volume of goods and services, creating guarantees of social security of rural residents. The state authorities should be interested in the development of social programs for rural areas, since the earliest solution of the set tasks is the key criterion for the retention of rural residents in rural areas, which is most important for the republic in the context of increasing rates of urbanization.
The Impact of Voluntary Disclosure on the Financial Performance of Industrial Companies Operating in the City of Hebron
Raed Abueid
This study aimed to identify the impact of voluntary disclosure on the financial performance of industrial companies operating in the city of Hebron. The study was conducted on a sample of (100) employees of industrial companies operating in the city of Hebron. The descriptive and analytical approach was used, as the study tool was It consists of (4) areas, distributed over (26) paragraphs, all of which target the impact of voluntary disclosure on financial performance in industrial companies operating in the city of Hebron. The study reached a set of results: Confirming the impact of social and environmental disclosure in industrial companies operating in the city of Hebron on financial performance.There is an impact of disclosing the services of workers in industrial companies ,There is a disclosure of the financial performance of research and development activities .The study concluded with several recommendations: It is necessary to pay attention from the management of industrial companies to continuously support the development of allocations for research and development activities. It is necessary to pay attention to the management of industrial companies in developing employee services activities, developing policies used in employment and creating conditions for workers to ensure labor productivity. It is necessary to develop allocations for social and environmental activities programs for industrial companies.
A Game Approach to Multi-dimensional Opinion Dynamics in Social Networks with Stubborn Strategist Agents
Hossein B. Jond, Aykut Yıldız
In a social network, individuals express their opinions on several interdependent topics, and therefore the evolution of their opinions on these topics is also mutually dependent. In this work, we propose a differential game model for the multi-dimensional opinion formation of a social network whose population of agents interacts according to a communication graph. Each individual's opinion evolves according to an aggregation of disagreements between the agent's opinions and its graph neighbors on multiple interdependent topics exposed to an unknown extraneous disturbance. For a social network with strategist agents the opinions evolve over time with respect to the minimization of a quadratic cost function that solely represents each individual's motives against the disturbance. We find the unique Nash/worst-case equilibrium solution for the proposed differential game model of coupled multi-dimensional opinions under an open-loop information structure. Moreover, we propose a distributed implementation of the Nash/worst-case equilibrium solution. We examine the non-distributed and proposed distributed open-loop Nash/worst-case strategies on a small social network with strategist agents in a two-dimensional opinion space. Then we compare the opinions evolved based on the Nash/worst-case strategy with the opinions corresponding to social optimality actions for non-strategist agents.
THE SOCIAL HISTORY OF RUSSIA DURING THE GREAT PATRIOTIC WAR IN THE WORKS OF V.N. PARAMONOV
E. Shmatov
The article is dedicated to the memory of the outstanding Russian scientist, the largest specialist in the history of the Great Patriotic War V.N. Paramonov. He developed such historical trends as industrial development, the labor sphere, everyday life in the rear, public consciousness, the mentality of censorship, Soviet society. An objective analysis of the historian's scientific activity is a matter for future researchers, and this article focuses on his research in the field of the social history of Soviet society in 1941-1945. The research was based on the scientific works of the historian. Paramonov was one of the first in Russian historiography, relying on an extensive database of historical sources, recreated many aspects of the social life of Soviet society in extreme wartime conditions. He revealed the negative phenomena of the social development of that era. But he also showed that, despite the difficulties of the war years, the peoples of our country made every effort to achieve victory over the enemy.
STRATEGIC INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS OF UKRAINE AND THEIR FEASIBILITY UNDER UNCERTAINTY
O. Kushnirenko, N. Gakhovych, Liliia Venger
Introduction. In this paper, we examine the importance of scenario strategizing of industrial development under conditions of uncertainty caused by human, material and non-material losses during wartime. The main approaches to the development of the industrial development scenarios are systematized. It has been established that scenario methods can be used to cope with future uncertainties by envisioning plausible futures and identifying paths to reach desirable targets. Based on the study of the main indicators that characterize the internal opportunities for the manufacturing development in Ukraine (the dynamics of sold product volume, labor productivity, industrial energy consumption, the dynamics of research and innovation activities, high-tech exports, etc.), the authors identify the driving forces and weaknesses of the Ukrainian industry. Also the opportunities and threats of innovative transformations for manufacturing in the war and post-war period were identified. The proposals for a quick and effective manufacturing recovery in relation to the development policy priorities of the European Community were substantiated relying supports country-level collaboration between governments, business and civil society. Materials and methods. In article the methods of the system analysis and logical modeling - for explanation the ways of transition of the industry from the current situation to the target one; structural analysis to determine the system of indicators characterizing the sustainability of the industry were used. For this, national (State Statistics of Ukraine) and international (World Bank, Eurostat official website) databases characterizing the level and structure of industrial development over the past 5 years were used. The calculation methodology takes into account the criteria for changing indicators: direction (growth/decline occurred); rate of changes. The calculation of trends for measures with quantitative units is based on the cumulative annual growth rate for the 5 years period. The study was carried out using elements of the method of analyzing the influence of trends in the formation of strategic scenarios in the event of unpredictable situations (in conditions of wartime uncertainty), to assess changes in the probability of occurrence of a given set of events due to the actual occurrence of one of them, which made it possible to identify trends, justify scenarios and take them into account when analyzing the prospects for industrial development to strengthen the defense capabilities and economic growth of Ukraine. Results and discussion. Strategic scenarios for the industrial development of Ukraine will be adjusted as needed for post-war industry recovery in case of an long-term military external threat to preserve the state sovereignty of our country. It stresses the importance of ensuring a consistently high level of state defense capability. This additionally prioritizes the need to develop a developed industrial complex in creating available resources to meet the needs of not only the civilian population, but also the army. Achieving the set strategic goals depends on the driving forces that determine the industrial development in our country. As the main indicators characterizing the tendencies of industrial development in Ukraine, the indicators reflecting the efficiency of the use of productive forces were chosen: indicators of the industrial production`s efficiency; labor productivity; indicators characterizing innovative development; performance indicators of foreign economic activity and investment development. This choice is due to the fact that a strong industrial base should generate productive and stable employment, and, as a result, an increasing in the average level of wages. In addition, the industry should ensure the production of socially significant industrial goods (food, medicine, hygiene items, clothing and footwear, fuel). Taking into account the influence of each of the driving forces of the industry development in the conditions of the wartime uncertainty, three scenarios of industrial development have been developed: a conditionally positive scenario, in which the economic system will gradually stabilize due to the cessation of hostilities and the manufacturing capacities recovery; a conditionally negative scenario, which will be characterized by the disintegration of the economic system, the destruction of energy infrastructure facilities, where negative trends will be dominant; a conditionally neutral (basic) scenario, in which the turbulence of the economic system will not reach extreme levels, and industrial production will develop in areas not covered by hostilities. Conclusions. The key problem of restoring the economic stability of Ukraine is to provide conditions for the favorable conduct of industrial business, which depends on balanced strategic policy decisions. The transformation of industry into an effective force for the revival of Ukrainian business in the conditions of wartime and the post-war period requires a balanced strategic management of the future development of the economy, because it is critically important to meet the unprecedented demands of the war on the available resources in the country and prevent a social, humanitarian, economic, financial, environmental, military crisis. At the same time, traditional methods of indicative planning cannot take into account all factors of the wartime uncertainty, therefore, the rationale for future development vectors based on scenario planning makes it possible to create conditions for minimizing threats and realizing potential opportunities.
Exploring biographies in a rapidly changing labor world
Giorgos Tsiolis, Irini Siouti
The field of work and employment is among the most rapidly changing fields in current societies. The sociology of work attempts to map these changes, developing concepts that seek to grasp the transformations of labor. Currently, the discussion revolves around two main topics: (a) the ‘normality of non-normality’ expands on the flexible, insecure, and precarious forms of employment, while (b) the ‘subjectivation of work’ has been introduced in order to reflect the newly observed trend in which entrepreneurial strategies and rationales colonize the whole spectrum of an employee’s personal life and the self. It is a paradox, however, that while all these transformations in the labor world are taking place, interest in biographical research on the field has declined. This article aims to show the ways in which biographical narrative research has studied the changes that have taken place in the world of labor and to highlight new research possibilities. We especially wish to highlight ways in which reconstructive biographical research can contribute to the corpus of knowledge generated on this topic. We argue that, through biographical case reconstruction, paths by which transformations of the labor world become biographically significant for individuals and their social life worlds can be grasped in a dialectical manner. Employing systematic reconstruction of the ways in which social actors construct their work experiences biographically can serve a twofold purpose. First, it reveals how social rules, dominant discourses, and social conditions form new workers’ subjectivities, and second, it identifies biographical sources of resistance on the part of the actors.