Dynamic Analysis of a Fractional-Order SINPR Rumor Propagation Model with Emotional Mechanisms

The inherent randomness and concealment of rumors in social networks exacerbate their spread, leading to significant societal instability. To explore the mechanisms of rumor propagation for more effective control and mitigation of harm, we propose a novel fractional-order Susceptible-Infected-Negative-Positive-Removed (SINPR) rumor propagation model, which simultaneously incorporates emotional mechanisms by distinguishing between positive and negative emotion spreaders, as well as memory effects through fractional-order derivatives. The proposed model extends traditional frameworks by jointly capturing the bidirectional influence of emotions and the anomalous, history-dependent dynamics often overlooked by integer-order models. First, we calculate the equilibrium points and thresholds of the model, and analyze the stability of the equilibrium, along with the sensitivity and transcritical bifurcation associated with the basic reproduction number. Next, we validate the theoretical results through numerical simulations and analyze the individual effects of fractional-order derivatives and emotional mechanisms. Finally, we predict the rumor propagation process using real datasets. Comparative experiments with other models demonstrate that the fractional-order SINPR model achieves R-squared values of 0.9712 and 0.9801 on two different real datasets, underscoring its effectiveness in predicting trends in rumor propagation.