The Evolution of Eco-routing under Population Growth: Evidence from Six U.S. Cities

Rapid urban population growth drives car travel demand, increasing transport carbon emissions and posing a critical challenge to sustainable development. Although existing studies have demonstrated that eco-routing can reduce individual emissions, research gaps remain. On the one hand, such personal reductions have a negligible impact on overall emissions, and cannot be simply aggregated to capture the complex effects of large-scale eco-routing. On the other hand, under population growth, the long-term effectiveness of eco-routing, as well as the evolution of its efficiency and traveler route choice, remain underexplored. To address these limitations, this study proposes Time-Only and Time-Carbon user equilibrium (UE) models, integrates them with a demand forecasting method for simulating future network traffic, and designs multi-dimensional metrics to characterize urban dynamics. Using real-world road networks, commuting origin-destination (OD) demand, and population projections under various shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) for six representative U.S. cities as a case study, we conduct a comprehensive analysis of urban dynamics across different routing strategies and population sizes. The results reveal that while eco-routing mitigates total emissions, emissions in most cities scale superlinearly with population, a scaling order that remains invariant regardless of routing and construction strategies. Moreover, under population growth, travelers using eco-routing tend to increasingly select shorter routes, giving rise to carbon bottlenecks. A strategy of targeted capacity expansion on these critical bottlenecks (0.46% of links) significantly reduces both emissions (3%) and travel time (28%) without compromising eco-routing efficiency. This study provides a foundation for formulating low-carbon urban transport planning and emission reduction policies.