From reductionism to realism: Holistic mathematical modelling for complex biological systems

At its core, the physics paradigm adopts a reductionist approach, aiming to understand fundamental phenomena by decomposing them into simpler, elementary processes. While this strategy has been tremendously successful in physics, it has often fallen short in addressing fundamental questions in the biological sciences. This arises from the inherent complexity of biological systems, characterised by heterogeneity, polyfunctionality and interactions across spatiotemporal scales. Nevertheless, the traditional framework of complex systems modelling falls short, as its emphasis on broad theoretical principles has often failed to produce predictive, empirically-grounded insights. To advance towards actionable mathematical models in biology, we argue, using neuroscience as a case study, that it is necessary to move beyond reductionist approaches and instead embrace the complexity of biological systems - leveraging the growing availability of high-resolution data and advances in high-performance computing. We advocate for a holistic mathematical modelling paradigm that harnesses rich representational structures such as annotated and multilayer networks, employs agent-based models and simulation-based approaches, and focuses on the inverse problem of inferring system dynamics from observations. We emphasise that this approach is fully compatible with the search for fundamental biophysical principles, and highlight the potential it holds to drive progress in mathematical biology over the next two decades.