Including frameworks of public health ethics in computational modelling of infectious disease interventions

Decisions on public health interventions to control infectious disease are often informed by computational models. Interpreting the predicted outcomes of a public health decision requires not only high-quality modelling, but also an ethical framework for assessing the benefits and harms associated with different options. The design and specification of ethical frameworks matured independently of computational modelling, so many values recognised as important for ethical decision-making are missing from computational models. We demonstrate a proof-of-concept approach to incorporate multiple public health values into the evaluation of a simple computational model for vaccination against a pathogen such as SARS-CoV-2. By examining a bounded space of alternative prioritisations of values (outcome equity and aggregate benefit) we identify value trade-offs, where the outcomes of optimal strategies differ depending on the ethical framework. This work demonstrates an approach to incorporating diverse values into decision criteria used to evaluate outcomes of models of infectious disease interventions.