Predictive Modeling of Lower-Level English Club Soccer Using Crowd-Sourced Player Valuations
Abstrak
In this research, we examine the capabilities of different mathematical models to accurately predict various levels of the English football pyramid. Existing work has largely focused on top-level play in European leagues; however, our work analyzes teams throughout the entire English Football League system. We modeled team performance using weighted Colley and Massey ranking methods which incorporate player valuations from the widely-used website Transfermarkt to predict game outcomes. Our initial analysis found that lower leagues are more difficult to forecast in general. Yet, after removing dominant outlier teams from the analysis, we found that top leagues were just as difficult to predict as lower leagues. We also extended our findings using data from multiple German and Scottish leagues. Finally, we discuss reasons to doubt attributing Transfermarkt's predictive value to wisdom of the crowd.
Topik & Kata Kunci
Penulis (8)
Josh Brown
Yutong Bu
Zachary Cheesman
Benjamin Orman
Iris Horng
Samuel Thomas
Amanda Harsy
Adam Schultze
Akses Cepat
- Tahun Terbit
- 2024
- Bahasa
- en
- Sumber Database
- arXiv
- Akses
- Open Access ✓