Erosion rate of lunar soil under a landing rocket, part 2: benchmarking and predictions

In the companion paper ("Erosion rate of lunar soil under a landing rocket, part 1: identifying the rate-limiting physics", this issue) an equation was developed for the rate that lunar soil erodes under the exhaust of a landing rocket. That equation has only one parameter that is not calibrated from first principles, so here it is calibrated by the blowing soil's optical density curve during an Apollo landing. An excellent fit is obtained, helping validate the equation. However, when extrapolating the erosion rate all the way to touchdown on the lunar surface, a soil model is needed to handle the increased resistance to erosion as the deeper, more compacted soil is exposed. Relying on models derived from Apollo measurements and from Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) Diviner thermal inertia measurements, only one additional soil parameter is unknown: the scale of increasing cohesive energy with soil compaction. Treating this as an additional fitting parameter results in some degeneracy in the solutions, but the depth of erosion scour in the post-landing imagery provides an additional constraint on the solution. The results show that about 4 to 10 times more soil was blown in each Apollo landing than previously believed, so the potential for sandblasting damage is worse than prior estimates. This also shows that, with further development, instruments to measure the soil erosion during lunar landings can constrain the soil column's density profile complementary to the thermal inertia measurements, providing insight into the landing site's geology.