Hasil untuk "Labor market. Labor supply. Labor demand"

Ali Zarifhonarvar

PurposeThe study investigates the influence of ChatGPT on the labor market dynamics, aiming to provide a structured understanding of the changes induced by generative AI technologies.Design/methodology/approachAn analysis of existing literature serves as the foundation for understanding the impact, while the supply and demand model helps assess the effects of ChatGPT. A text-mining approach is utilized to analyze the International Standard Occupation Classification, identifying occupations most susceptible to disruption by ChatGPT.FindingsThe study reveals that 32.8% of occupations could be fully impacted by ChatGPT, while 36.5% might experience a partial impact and 30.7% are likely to remain unaffected.Research limitations/implicationsWhile this study offers insights into the potential influence of ChatGPT and other generative AI services on the labor market, it is essential to note that these findings represent potential implications rather than realized labor market effects. Further research is needed to track actual changes in employment patterns and job market dynamics where these AI services are widely adopted.Originality/valueThis paper contributes to the field by systematically categorizing the level of impact on different occupations, providing a nuanced perspective on the short- and long-term implications of ChatGPT and similar generative AI services on the labor market.

Stefania Albanesi, Jiyeon Kim

The economic crisis associated with the emergence of the novel corona virus is unlike standard recessions. Demand for workers in high contact and inflexible service occupations has declined while parental supply of labor has been reduced by lack of access to reliable child care and in-person schooling options. This has led to a substantial and persistent drop in employment and labor force participation for women, who are typically less affected by recessions than men. We examine real-time data on employment, unemployment, labor force participation and gross job flows to document the impact of the pandemic by occupation, gender and family status. We also discuss the potential long-term implications of this crisis, including the role of automation in depressing the recovery of employment for the worst hit service occupations.

Ravish Gupta, Saket Kumar

This paper extends the Acemoglu-Restrepo task exposure framework to address the labor market effects of agentic artificial intelligence systems: autonomous AI agents capable of completing entire occupational workflows rather than discrete tasks. Unlike prior automation technologies that substitute for individual subtasks, agentic AI systems execute end-to-end workflows involving multi-step reasoning, tool invocation, and autonomous decision-making, substantially expanding occupational displacement risk beyond what existing task-level analyses capture. We introduce the Agentic Task Exposure (ATE) score, a composite measure computed algorithmically from O*NET task data using calibrated adoption parameters--not a regression estimate--incorporating AI capability scores, workflow coverage factors, and logistic adoption velocity. Applying the ATE framework across five major US technology regions (Seattle-Tacoma, San Francisco Bay Area, Austin, New York, and Boston) over a 2025-2030 horizon, we find that 93.2% of the 236 analyzed occupations across six information-intensive SOC groups (financial, legal, healthcare, healthcare support, sales, and administrative/clerical) cross the moderate-risk threshold (ATE >= 0.35) in Tier 1 regions by 2030, with credit analysts, judges, and sustainability specialists reaching ATE scores of 0.43-0.47. We simultaneously identify seventeen emerging occupational categories benefiting from reinstatement effects, concentrated in human-AI collaboration, AI governance, and domain-specific AI operations roles. Our findings carry implications for workforce transition policy, regional economic planning, and the temporal dynamics of labor market adjustment

Criscent Birungi, Cody Hyndman

The decision to annuitize wealth in retirement planning has become increasingly complex due to rising longevity risk and changing retirement patterns, including increased labor force participation at older ages. While an extensive literature studies consumption, labor, and annuitization decisions, these elements are typically examined in isolation. This paper develops a unified stochastic control and optimal stopping framework in which habit formation and endogenous labor supply shape retirement and annuitization decisions under age-dependent mortality. We derive optimal consumption, labor, portfolio, and annuitization policies in a continuous-time lifecycle model. The solution is characterized via dynamic programming and a Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman variational inequality. Our results reveal a rich sequence of retirement dynamics. When wealth is low relative to habit, labor is supplied defensively to protect consumption standards. As wealth increases, agents enter a work-to-retire phase in which labor is supplied at its maximum level to accelerate access to retirement. Human capital acts as a stabilizing asset, justifying a more aggressive pre-retirement investment portfolio, followed by abrupt de-risking upon annuitization. Subjective mortality beliefs are a key determinant in shaping retirement dynamics. Agents with pessimistic longevity beliefs rationally perceive annuities as unattractive, leading them to avoid or delay annuitization. This framework provides a behavior-based explanation for low annuity demand and offers guidance for retirement planning jointly linking labor supply, portfolio choice, and the timing of annuitization.

Harry Williamson, Dermot Coates, Kevin Daly et al.

Abstract The adoption of AI technology by industry could significantly disrupt our current understanding of “typical” economic activity. As AI comes to pervade more sectors and occupations over time, it is likely that this technology will give rise to challenges and risks but also opportunities and benefits. There is, however, a significant degree of uncertainty regarding how future waves of technological change will impact the economy, including the labour market. Recent research has found that 40% of employment globally is exposed to AI and that this rises to 60% of employment in advanced economies. We analyse exposure and complementarity in tandem in order to better understand the potential impact across occupation types in Ireland. We find that Ireland is relatively more exposed to AI than is the case for other advanced economies. We also find find that female workers in Ireland are more likely to work in highly exposed roles compared to males, that younger Irish workers are more exposed to AI than are older workers, and that both exposure complementarity to AI increase in line with educational attainment. Finally, we contend that the extent to which AI augments, or replaces, human labour in the medium to long-run will depend on a variety of economic, social and policy factors, including levels of AI regulation. JEL classification: J21, J24, O31.

Alexander V. Prokopev, Nadezhda V. Puchkova, Natalya V. Timofeeva et al.

This study examines the labor market of the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra. The relevance of the research stems from the region’s strong dependence on natural resource reserves and production volumes, driven by the dominance of the mining and processing industries and the resulting unique employment conditions. These structural features create specific demands for workforce qualifications and competencies. The study aims to analyze labor market supply and demand while considering employer requirements and the professional qualifications of workers. The analysis draws on statistical data, job postings, and résumés from the HeadHunter online recruitment platform. Approximately 7,500 job descriptions and 21,600 résumé entries were collected for the period June–July 2024. The methodological framework combines natural language processing techniques with neural network models. The scientific novelty of the study lies in identifying qualitative correspondences and discrepancies between the competencies of job seekers and the requirements of employers within a resource-based regional economy. The results confirm the high level of resource dependence in the Khanty-Mansi Autonomous Okrug–Yugra, classifying its economy as highly dependent on resources. An analysis of employer job postings and job seeker résumés reveals that universal and general professional skills are prioritized over specialized competencies. Overall, both labor supply and demand are dominated by industry-specific professions. Job postings with clear sectoral specialization—such as those in the oil and gas industry—tend to emphasize general skills, personal qualities, and relevant education, followed by specialized skills that can be developed through work experience. The practical significance of the study lies in its potential to inform labor demand forecasting, optimize vocational training, and support the development of effective regional human resource policies.

Farhad Sharifi Bagha, Jafar Haqiqat, Zahra Karimi Takanloo

<p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Abstract</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">The purpose of the current research is to investigate the relationship between the monetary policy shock via exchange rate channel on the management quality index in the banking system within a productivity approach. The current research is applied in terms of its purpose and analytical-descriptive in terms of its method. This study utilizes 96 variables of seasonal time series data that affect the management quality index within the bank productivity framework, one of the critical indicators for assessing the health of the banking system. The analysis covers the period from 1378:1 to 1401:4 and employs the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression (FAVAR) model to investigate the effect of monetary policy via exchange rate channel on the management quality index in the banking system. Among the many variables influencing the productivity of the whole bank, which are extracted from the bank's balance sheet, the amount of expenses (financial expenses, administrative and general expenses) and the amount of profit (net investment interest, interest received from foreign currency deposits) were investigated. The results indicated that the monetary policy shock through the exchange rate channel had a significant negative relationship with the selected variables and caused a decrease in the amount of profit and an increase in the amount of expenses, which led to a decrease in the overall productivity of the bank.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>&nbsp;</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>Key Words:</strong> management quality in the banking system, productivity approach, monetary policy shock, exchange rate</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>1.Introduction</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">Productivity is one of the concepts of economics and management, which is defined as: "the amount of goods or services produced compared to each unit of energy or labor spent without reducing quality&rdquo;, in other words "effectiveness along with efficiency". In the operational concept, productivity is the ratio between output values ​​and input values ​​used in the production process. In fact, the purpose of productivity is to maximize output and minimize input. On the other hand, one of the most important challenges of the banking system in any economy is its reaction to shocks and economic fluctuations. Any unexpected phenomenon that has an unpredictable effect on economic variables is considered a shock, which can be classified as environmental, external, internal or supply and demand shocks. The adoption of monetary policies is the process by which the central bank or the country's monetary authority controls the supply of money or other monetary variables and imposes fluctuations on the economy as a type of economic policies.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>2.Literature Review</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">Sofin (2005) in a study entitled &ldquo;the source of changes in profitability in commercial banks in developing countries; The case study of the country of Malaysia&rdquo; has investigated the productivity of all production factors in commercial banks in Malaysia during the period from 1998 to 2003 using the Malmquist index. In this study, the interest income of the banks from the place of granting various types of facilities, the amount of loan paid as the bank's income and the volume of various types of bank deposits, labor force and fixed assets of the bank's branches were taken into consideration. In total, the results of this study showed that the productivity of production factors in Malaysian banks decreased by 7% during the period under review. The negative effects of technological changes have been one of the reasons for the decrease in the productivity of banks. In a study, Sanbat (2016) has investigated monetary policy transmission channels in the United States using the FAVAR model and 154 monthly time series variables in the time period from 1970 to 2014. To this end, the effect of monetary policy shock on bank portfolio variables and economic activity variables and the effect of lending on economic activity variables have been investigated. The research findings indicate the existence of a credit channel in America. Also, it was found that the contractionary monetary policy causes a decrease in loan supply, which leads to a dcrease in economic activities. Elborn et al. (2019) in a study aimed at Do SVARs detect unconventional monetary policy shocks? revealed that the used identification schemes fail to recover real unconventional monetary policy shocks in the Eurozone. In their identification schemes, information on the size of the central bank's balance sheet is key to distinguishing monetary policy shocks from other shocks that reduce financial market stress. In the present study, we show that replacing ECB balance sheet size with random numbers leads to statistically indistinguishable shock response functions and time series of abnormal monetary policy shocks. In contrast, using monetary policy shocks identified by forward rate data by Jaroski and Karadi, we argue that unconventional monetary policies have not had a statistically significant effect on real economic activity.</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>3.Methodology</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">Regarding the purpose, the present study is applied research, utilizing an analytical-descriptive methodology. The FAVAR or the Factor-Augmented Vector Autoregression model presented by Bernanke, Boivin and Elias (2003) has been used to solve the problems related to the VAR model. Therefore, using 96 variables of seasonal time series data affecting the management quality index within the bank productivity approach which is one of the most important indicators of assessing the health of the banking system, and employing the factor-added empirical model (FAVAR), the effect of monetary policy via the exchange rate channel on the management quality index in the banking system was investigated during the period of 1378:1-1401:4</p> <p style="text-align: left;">In order to investigate the mechanism of the impact of monetary policy shocks via exchange rate channel on the variables affecting the health of the banking system, the two-stage method of principal components was used. Therefore, first, the following equation was estimated without considering the Yt vector, based on which the number of optimal factors was selected. The equation can be written using model variables as follows:</p> <p style="text-align: left;">After determining the number of optimal factors, the equation was estimated. This equation can be shown as follows:</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>4.Result</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">The purpose of the current research was to investigate the relationship between the monetary policy shock through the exchange rate channel on the management quality index in the banking system within the productivity approach. Regarding the relationship between the variables, it was expected that the value of each variable from the previous period will have a positive effect on the current value of the variable, in such a way that, for example, an increase in the exchange rate in the past period increases or decreases the variables in the current period. The monetary policy through the exchange rate channel has led to a direct effect on the deposits of the banking network and, as a result, the power to grant facilities and operational income, which, in turn, affects one of the most important indicators of the health of the banking system, which is the management quality index (i.e., productivity). For this reason, fluctuations caused by monetary policy shocks in the exchange rate, as one of the most fundamental factors affecting the health of the banking system, can have a significant negative impact. Thus, the results showed:</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Monetary policy shocks via exchange rate channel have a significant negative impact on the bank's profit.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">Monetary policy shocks via exchange rate channel have a significant positive effect on the amount of expenses in the bank.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">As a result, it can be said that the relationship between the monetary policy shock via exchange rate channel has a negative significant relationship with the management quality index (i.e., productivity).</p> <p style="text-align: left;"><strong>5.Discussion</strong></p> <p style="text-align: left;">In recent years, the exchange rate fluctuations caused by the policies of monetary and financial authorities of the country to pursue different goals and the banking-oriented nature of Iran's economy have caused the optimal management of resources and the ability of bank allocation as well as the resulting revenues to have a great impact on the country's financial performance. One of the most important indicators that can be used to attract bank resources and assess how to use resources (optimal allocation of resources) and incomes, is the productivity index in the discussion of management quality. Productivity is a combination of efficiency and effectiveness. The obtained results indicate that the impact of the monetary policy shock via exchange rate channel has increased over a certain period on the target factors. During this time, the number of changes in the target variables by the variables themselves decreases and the changes in the variables caused by the shock of the exchange rate channel increase. Therefore, monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel have a significant negative impact on productivity, and consequently, have a negative impact on the quality index of bank management. Moreover, monetary policy shocks through the exchange rate channel have a significant negative impact on the amount of profit earned in the bank and a significant positive effect on the amount of bank expenses.</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p> <p style="text-align: left;">&nbsp;</p>

Sidong Kim

As of 2022, the Republic of Korea accounted for 0.8% of global chicken meat production and 0.9% of global egg production. The country achieved self-sufficiency rates of 83.1% for chicken meat and 99.4% for eggs, demonstrating significant quantitative and qualitative growth to meet domestic demand. Although the industry is trending towards expansion and specialization, it faces several challenges in achieving sustainable poultry production. Key challenges in Korea include highly pathogenic avian influenza and pest issues, climate change and the push for carbon neutrality, reliance on imported breeding stock, insufficient preparedness for expanding cage space per laying hen, post-settlement payment systems for egg sales and an oversupply of chicken meat, and the aging poultry farming population and the closure of farms unable to secure successors. Following strategies are proposed to overcome or mitigate challenges mentioned above: (1) enhancing farm biosecurity and implementing vaccination policies for disease control, (2) modernizing facilities and promoting carbon-neutral practices to adapt to climate change, (3) diversifying breeding stocks across multiple locations and developing domestic strains, (4) implementing policies and supporting farms based on a comprehensive readiness assessment of all farms regarding expanded cage space requirements, (5) improving market transparency for the egg industry and regulating supply and demand in the broiler industry, and (6) offering incentives for farm succession, attracting labor, and promoting coexistence between corporations, rural communities, and small farms. In conclusion, the sustainable development of Korea's poultry industry is not a simple task. It requires a comprehensive approach considering economic efficiency, animal welfare, environmental protection, food security, and the symbiosis with rural communities. This approach necessitates efficient cooperation among all stakeholders, including the government, farmers, integrators, retailers, and research institutions, along with a comprehensive, phased strategy for both short- and long-term goals.

Janneke Pieters, Ana Kujundzic, Rulof Burger et al.

Technological change can have profound impacts on the labor market. Decades of research have made it clear that technological change produces winners and losers. Machines can replace some types of work that humans do, while new technologies increase human's productivity in other types of work. For a long time, highly educated workers benefitted from increased demand for their labor due to skill-biased technological change, while the losers were concentrated at the bottom of the wage distribution (Katz and Autor, 1999; Goldin and Katz, 2007, 2010; Kijima, 2006). Currently, however, labor markets seem to be affected by a different type of technological change, the so-called routine-biased technological change (RBTC). This chapter studies the risk of automation in developing country labor markets, with a particular focus on differences between men and women. Given the pervasiveness of gender occupational segregation, there may be important gender differences in the risk of automation. Understanding these differences is important to ensure progress towards equitable development and gender inclusion in the face of new technological advances. Our objective is to describe the gender gap in the routine task intensity of jobs in developing countries and to explore the role of occupational segregation and several worker characteristics in accounting for the gender gap.

Alex Farach, Alexia Cambon, Jared Spataro

As the digital economy grows increasingly intangible, traditional productivity measures struggle to capture the true economic impact of artificial intelligence (AI). AI systems capable of cognitive work significantly enhance productivity, yet their contributions remain obscured within the residual category of Total Factor Productivity (TFP). This paper explores whether it is time for a conceptual shift to explicitly recognize "digital labor," the autonomous cognitive capability of AI, as a distinct factor of production alongside capital and human labor. We outline the unique economic properties of digital labor, including scalability, intangibility, self-improvement, rapid obsolescence, and elastic substitutability. By integrating digital labor into growth models (such as those by Solow and Romer), we demonstrate strategic implications for business leaders, including new approaches to productivity tracking, resource allocation, investment strategy, and organizational design. Ultimately, treating digital labor as an independent factor offers a clearer view of economic growth and helps organizations manage AI's transformative potential.

Konstantin Kunze

This paper exploits variation resulting from a series of federal and state Medicaid expansions between 1977 and 2017 to estimate the effects of children's increased access to public health insurance on the labor market outcomes of their mothers. The results imply that the extended Medicaid eligibility of children leads to positive labor supply responses of single mothers and to negative labor supply responses of married mothers. The analysis of mechanisms suggests that extended children's Medicaid eligibility positively affects take-up of Medicaid and health of children.

Ying Sun, Hengshu Zhu, Lu Wang et al.

A. Aji, Muhammad Akbardin

The research aims to comprehensively explore the multifaceted dynamics of the labor market, focusing on labor supply, demand, and compensation, and their implications for policy and future research. Employing a literature review approach, this study synthesizes insights from various disciplines, including economics, sociology, psychology, and public policy. Methodologically, it entails a systematic analysis of scholarly articles, empirical studies, and theoretical frameworks to elucidate the complex interplay of factors shaping workforce behavior and labor market outcomes. The findings reveal the intricate relationships between demographic characteristics, educational attainment, social norms, economic conditions, and technological advancements in influencing labor supply, demand, and compensation dynamics. Key insights include the significance of lifelong learning initiatives, the role of labor market institutions in ensuring fair compensation practices, and the importance of job quality enhancement measures in fostering workforce satisfaction and productivity. The research underscores the need for interdisciplinary approaches, longitudinal studies, and comparative analyses to address emerging challenges in the labor market and inform evidence-based policy interventions.

Tiago Fávero de Oliveira, Breno Apolinário da Silva

O objetivo deste estudo é analisar como a mudança tecnológica altera processos produtivos e educativos. O texto aponta que, apesar do apelo de modernização e inovação, a difusão de tecnologias de inteligência artificial altera a relação entre linguagem e pensamento, produzindo uma educação tecnobancária cujos efeitos geram submissão, dominação, exploração e universalização de um pensamento único. O artigo parte das análises de Marx sobre a maquinaria e se desenvolve apontando alterações, contradições e desafios sobre o tema. Ao final, são apresentados caminhos para o enfrentamento da questão no sentido de gerar uma educação comprometida com os interesses de emancipação da classe dominada. Palavras-chave: Educação tecnobancária; Inteligência Artificial; Educação.

Lia Tiriba, Jacqueline Botelho, Adriana Barbosa

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Alberto Acosta

Atrás quedan las promesas del “desarrollo”, nutridas de uno de los corazones de la Modernidad: el “progreso”. En la vorágine, estamos abocados a replantearnos el tema del trabajo y del ocio. Se ha transformado el fenómeno del “ocio”, para expresar libertad y autonomía en un espacio mercantil de la vida misma. El “ocio mercantil” es reflejo de un mundo “mal desarrollado”, donde “trabajo” y “ocio” terminan igualmente alienados a la acumulación del capital. Pero no todo es desalentador. Hay reflexiones y acciones que demandan la construcción de sociedades radicalmente distintas. Palabras clave: Modernidad, Desarrollo, Progreso, Ocio y Trabajo.

Pegah Moradi, Karen Levy, Cristobal Cheyre

Self-service machines are a form of pseudo-automation; rather than actually automate tasks, they offset them to unpaid customers. Typically implemented for customer convenience and to reduce labor costs, self-service is often criticized for worsening customer service and increasing loss and theft for retailers. Though millions of frontline service workers continue to interact with these technologies on a day-to-day basis, little is known about how these machines change the nature of frontline labor. Through interviews with current and former cashiers who work with self-checkout technologies, we investigate how technology that offsets labor from an employee to a customer can reconfigure frontline work. We find three changes to cashiering tasks as a result of self-checkout: (1) Working at self-checkout involved parallel demands from multiple customers, (2) self-checkout work was more problem-oriented (including monitoring and policing customers), and (3) traditional checkout began to become more demanding as easier transactions were filtered to self-checkout. As their interactions with customers became more focused on problem solving and rule enforcement, cashiers were often positioned as adversaries to customers at self-checkout. To cope with perceived adversarialism, cashiers engaged in a form of relational patchwork, using techniques like scapegoating the self-checkout machine and providing excessive customer service in order to maintain positive customer interactions in the face of potential conflict. Our findings highlight how even under pseudo-automation, workers must engage in relational work to manage and mend negative human-to-human interactions so that machines can be properly implemented in context.

Mahdi Ahmadi, Neda Khosh Kheslat, Adebola Akintomide

The rapid advancement of Generative AI (Gen AI) technologies, particularly tools like ChatGPT, is significantly impacting the labor market by reshaping job roles and skill requirements. This study examines the demand for ChatGPT-related skills in the U.S. labor market by analyzing job advertisements collected from major job platforms between May and December 2023. Using text mining and topic modeling techniques, we extracted and analyzed the Gen AI-related skills that employers are hiring for. Our analysis identified five distinct ChatGPT-related skill sets: general familiarity, creative content generation, marketing, advanced functionalities (such as prompt engineering), and product development. In addition, the study provides insights into job attributes such as occupation titles, degree requirements, salary ranges, and other relevant job characteristics. These findings highlight the increasing integration of Gen AI across various industries, emphasizing the growing need for both foundational knowledge and advanced technical skills. The study offers valuable insights into the evolving demands of the labor market, as employers seek candidates equipped to leverage generative AI tools to improve productivity, streamline processes, and drive innovation.

Seyed Mohammad Ali Jafari, Ehsan Chitsaz

The emergence of new and disruptive technologies makes the economy and labor market more unstable. To overcome this kind of uncertainty and to make the labor market more comprehensible, we must employ labor market intelligence techniques, which are predominantly based on data analysis. Companies use job posting sites to advertise their job vacancies, known as online job vacancies (OJVs). LinkedIn is one of the most utilized websites for matching the supply and demand sides of the labor market; companies post their job vacancies on their job pages, and LinkedIn recommends these jobs to job seekers who are likely to be interested. However, with the vast number of online job vacancies, it becomes challenging to discern overarching trends in the labor market. In this paper, we propose a data mining-based approach for job classification in the modern online labor market. We employed structural topic modeling as our methodology and used the NASDAQ-100 indexed companies' online job vacancies on LinkedIn as the input data. We discover that among all 13 job categories, Marketing, Branding, and Sales; Software Engineering; Hardware Engineering; Industrial Engineering; and Project Management are the most frequently posted job classifications. This study aims to provide a clearer understanding of job market trends, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions in a rapidly evolving employment landscape.

Guanyi Yang, Srinivasan Murali

This paper examines the impact of racial discrimination in hiring on employment, wages, and wealth disparities between black and white workers. Using a labor search-and-matching model with racially prejudiced and non-prejudiced firms, we show that labor market frictions sustain discriminatory practices as an equilibrium outcome. These practices account for 57% of the racial unemployment gap, 48% of the average wage gap, and 16% of the median wealth gap. Discriminatory hiring also increases unemployment and wage volatility for black workers, increasing their labor market risks over the business cycle. Eliminating prejudiced firms reduces these disparities and improves the welfare of black workers as well as the overall economic welfare.