Hasil untuk "Crisis management. Emergency management. Inflation"

Olga O. Smillovenko, Taras M. Martynenko, Sergey A. Losik et al.

Purpose. Improving the operability of bolted connections of support and turning devices of cranes by early detection of defects based on a system analysis of factors (causes) affecting the failure of fasteners. Methods. Analysis of the results of theoretical and experimental studies of the reliability of fasteners of flange connections, taking into account dynamic loads; modeling of the process of loss of functional capability of a bolted connection taking into account load redistribution. Findings. The main reasons for the failure of bolt assemblies of lifting cranes in the form of non-cyclic dynamics of functional loads, combined impact of various types of loading, which is not taken into account in the design calculation of the thread diameter, as well as the direct influence of subjective factors, have been identified. The recommendations are formulated on the control of bolt connections (in accordance with the Rules for ensuring the industrial safety of lifting cranes), which substantiate and specify the operations for checking: tightening torque, the presence of defects (cracks) in the bolt body, surface areas affected by corrosion. Application field of research. Installation and operation of lifting cranes equipped with a flange-type rotary support device with bolting.

Sofie Pilemalm, Anna Follin, Erik Prytz

Purpose – Volunteers play an increasingly important role in emergency response logistics. However, to make most use of their capabilities, they need to be dispatched to the emergency site in an effective manner and coordinated on-site. The purpose of this study is to present a requirements specification and initial design proposal for ICT-enabled dispatch of volunteers as first responders as part of emergency response digitalized co-production initiatives. Design/methodology/approach – The study uses a case study approach inspired by action research and the theoretical lens of digitalized co-production. It includes a variety of methods for data collection, including interviews with volunteers, document analysis and participation in workshops. Findings – The major themes identified are geofencing, dispatch coordination, dynamic resource allocation and communication and collaboration. First priority requirements include geofencing alert and positioning, a joint application programming interface, receipt of alert, receipt if arrival at incident site, withdrawal of resources, chat functionality and the ability to alert in descending order within the geofenced areas to avoid alarm fatigue. As to coordination and dynamic resource allocation, e.g. built-in alert restrictions, ability to pre-select profiles and to dispatch based on competence/training, capacity and equipment would enable a more optimized response. Originality/value – While previous research on digital volunteerism mainly embraces spontaneous volunteers and social media, this study addresses long-time collaboration with professional response organizations – digitalized co-production – with a focus on the dispatch, coordination and task allocation of volunteers that are central to their integration with emergency response logistics.

Lixia Li, Paihao Yan, Xia Wang et al.

Economic development is often accompanied by a variety of production safety accidents. Currently, human factors have become the main constraint on safety for enterprises, especially small and medium-sized. Establishing corporate safety culture is an important approach to addressing that issue and improving the intrinsic safety level of enterprises. In this paper, an element system for safety culture construction, containing eight primary elements and 32 secondary elements, for medium and small enterprises was put forward according to the actual situation of safety production in enterprises in industrial parks using an expert survey method. This system integrated the construction of safety culture into the existing management system and specific safety work so that it had good implementability. Then, using SPSSAU online analysis software, expert surveys, and analytic hierarchy process (AHP), as well as the expert survey method, weights and rankings of every element of this safety culture element construction system were determined, which could provide a reference for the efficient of the safety culture construction. It is very important to evaluate the enterprise safety culture construction. Here, a set of quantitative evaluation methods was proposed, which combined a direct quantitative evaluation for secondary elements and a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method for the primary elements and the whole safety culture construction. This method can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of enterprise safety culture construction, identify weaknesses and continuously improve, and could also serve as a reference for government regulatory agencies, insurance companies, or third-party organizations to assess enterprise security.

Андрей Николаевич Камлюк

Цель. Теоретически оценить влияние различных факторов на генерирование воздушно-механической пены, получаемой в устройствах для пожаротушения. Сравнить полученные данные с результатами экспериментальных исследований. Методы. В процессе исследований применялись теоретические и эмпирические методы анализа. Результаты. В результате расчетов получены данные о предельных (минимальной и максимальной) скоростях для потока жидкости, в диапазоне которых обеспечивается генерирование воздушно-механической пены низкой кратности для широкого класса пеногенерирующих устройств. Рассмотрены механизмы генерирования пены на сетках в насадках на пожарные стволы методом выдувания, на поверхности розеток пенных оросителей автоматических систем пожаротушения методом взбивания, а также за счет введения в камеру смешения воздуха. Область применения исследований. Результаты анализа могут быть применены при разработке пеногенерирующих устройств, а также для определения оптимальных режимов их работы.

Zhiyang Liu, Kuibin Zhou, Qichao Yao et al.

As global warming increases forest fire frequency, early prevention and effective management become crucial. This requires models that are both accurate and easily understood. However, traditional machine learning models, which typically use preset parameters, are often inaccurate and hard to interpret. Therefore, this study introduces an enhanced approach using data from 2000 to 2019 in the Sichuan and Yunnan provinces of China, incorporating 18 driving factors. Bayesian optimization algorithms, i.e., the Gaussian Process (GP) and Tree-structured Parzen Estimator (TPE) probabilistic proxy models, were used to optimize the hyperparameters for LightGBM, Random Forest (RF), and Support Vector Machine (SVM), respectively. Finally, forest fire danger prediction models were constructed to draw forest fire danger maps, and the performance was compared between different models. In detail, the model's predictive performance was evaluated using metrics like accuracy, recall, precision, Balanced F Score (F1), and area under curve (AUC). The evaluation demonstrated that the TPE-LightGBM exhibited remarkable accuracy (AUC = 0.962). The forest fire danger map categorizes the study area into five danger levels. The TPE-LightGBM effectively classifies 62.58% of the study area as low-danger level and 5.33% as high-danger Level V. The Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) model interpretation of TPE-LightGBM highlights daily the average relative humidity, sunshine hours, elevation, daily average air pressure, and daily maximum ground surface temperature as the primary influential factors, followed by the human activity indexed by the gross domestic product (GDP) and the distance to the nearest railway.

Hongfang Wang, Junhui Gong

Optimization performances of three most frequently utilized optimization algorithms, GA (Genetic Algorithm), PSO (Particle Swarm Optimization), and SCE (Shuffled Complex Evolution), are compared to examine their accuracy, computation efficiency, and convergence efficiency. Micro scale TGA (thermogravimetric analysis) experiments of wood were conducted at three heating rates to collect the necessary data for analysis. Gauss multi-peak fitting method was first applied to identify the contribution of each component of wood to the mass loss rate (MLR) curves. Then the Kissinger method and three isoconversional methods, including KAS, Tang, and DAEM methods, were employed to extract kinetics of wood pyrolysis. The average values of the four sets of solutions were adopted to determine the search range in the following optimizations. A thermally thin numerical model was developed to inversely model the collected experimental data combining the three algorithms. The results showed that wood pyrolysis can be described by a four-component parallel reaction scheme. The four sets of kinetic parameters derived using different analytical methods are very close to each other. When extracting kinetics from experimental data using numerical model and optimization algorithms, the accuracies of the three algorithms are ranked as SCE > PSO > GA. While the computation efficiencies and convergency efficiencies are ranked as GA ≈ PSO > SCE and PSO > SCE > GA, indicating each algorithm has its inherent advantages and limits. In most optimization applications, PSO is more favorable considering its better overall performance.

Ксения Григорьевна Бурлаченко, Андрей Александрович Ефимов, Шамиль Кудрудинович Кадиев et al.

Цель. Обзор и анализ основных результатов научно-технической деятельности сотрудников кафедры информационных технологий (в составе учебно-научного комплекса автоматизированных систем и информационных технологий) Академии Государственной противопожарной службы МЧС России. Методы. Общая методология работы предусматривает использование теоретических методов исследования (обзор, описание, анализ). Результаты. В работе проведен анализ основных результатов научно-технической деятельности МЧС России в области информационных технологий на примере достижений кафедры информационных технологий (в составе учебно-научного комплекса) автоматизированных систем и информационных технологий Академии Государственной противопожарной службы МЧС России. Описаны перспективные направления научно-технической деятельности МЧС России в области информационных технологий. Область применения исследований. Результаты обзора и анализа достижений научно-технической деятельности МЧС России в области информационных технологий могут послужить базой для совершенствования и повышения эффективности деятельности, а также определения перспективных направлений развития информационных технологий для сопровождения всех профессиональных направлений деятельности в области пожарной безопасности и чрезвычайных ситуаций.

Alexander Rossolov, Olexiy Kuzkin, Halyna Rossolova

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to assess the roots of stockpiling behaviors and to give a quantitative assessment of shopping frequency changes for emergency supplies during the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. In addition, the authors aim to determine the sources that influenced emergency supply purchases during the COVID-19 outbreak. Design/methodology/approach – The study used a polling or survey process implementation to collect the data on shopping patterns and to determine the drivers of stockpiling behaviors for the assessment. The polling was conducted using a snowball technique, and descriptive and regression analyses were used to define the roots of the stockpiling behaviors and the shopping frequency changes. Findings – It was determined that 88.0% of end-consumers increased their shopping volumes for emergency supplies. An almost twofold increase in the average duration of usage for stockpiled goods (from 11 to 21 days) was also determined. Also revealed was a reduction in shopping frequency from an average of seven (pre-COVID-19 period) to five (first wave of COVID-19 pandemic) days. Such disproportional increases in purchase volumes along with a slight reduction in shopping frequency indicate the strong stockpile patterns that occurred during the pandemic. Originality/value – The research is based on data from Ukraine, where the number of COVID-19 cases was low. Despite the comparatively low spread of COVID-19 in large cities in Ukraine in relation to other cities globally, people still revealed panic and stockpiling behaviors. The study's quantitative assessment of shopping behaviors reveals the social and economic determinants of the shopping frequency.

Rafael Renteria, Mario Chong, Irineu de Brito Junior et al.

Purpose – This paper aims to design a vulnerability assessment model considering the multidimensional and systematic approach to disaster risk and vulnerability. This model serves to both risk mitigation and disaster preparedness phases of humanitarian logistics. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of 27,218 households in Pueblo Rico and Dosquebradas was conducted to obtain information about disaster risk for landslides, floods and collapses. We adopted a cross entropy-based approach for the measure of disaster vulnerability (Kullback–Leibler divergence), and a maximum-entropy estimation for the reconstruction of risk a priori categorization (logistic regression). The capabilities approach of Sen supported theoretically our multidimensional assessment of disaster vulnerability. Findings – Disaster vulnerability is shaped by economic, such as physical attributes of households, and health indicators, which are in specific morbidity indicators that seem to affect vulnerability outputs. Vulnerability is heterogeneous between communities/districts according to formal comparisons of Kullback–Leibler divergence. Nor social dimension, neither chronic illness indicators seem to shape vulnerability, at least for Pueblo Rico and Dosquebradas. Research limitations/implications – The results need a qualitative or case study validation at the community/district level. Practical implications – We discuss how risk mitigation policies and disaster preparedness strategies can be driven by empirical results. For example, the type of stock to preposition can vary according to the disaster or the kind of alternative policies that can be formulated on the basis of the strong relationship between morbidity and disaster risk. Originality/value – Entropy-based metrics are not widely used in humanitarian logistics literature, as well as empirical data-driven techniques.

Хайрулла Лутфуллаевич Хамидов, Алишер Хайдарович Ибрагимов, Лутфулла Абдуллаевич Хамидов

Цель. Совершенствование системы мониторинга сейсмичности и реализация новой цифровой системы инженерно-сейсмометрических наблюдений с современной базой обработки сейсмометрической информации на гидротехнических сооружениях Узбекистана. Методы. Внедрение цифровой регистрации волн для целей оценки колебаний плотины и береговой части Чарвакского водохранилища. Результаты. Определены частоты и скорости колебаний тела плотины и береговых склонов в автоматическом режиме без вмешательства операторов. Рассчитаны отношения амплитуд скорости колебания в измерительных пунктах к амплитудам скорости колебания основания плотины или береговых склонов Чарвакского водохранилища. При регистрации разных землетрясений в разных точках эти отношения значительно изменяются в зависимости от азимута прихода волн. Грунты водохранилища категорированы по сейсмическим свойствам. Область применения исследований. Полученные данные экспериментальных исследований могут быть использованы при оценке условий колебаний высоких плотин Чарвакского водохранилища при сильных землетрясениях.

Вадим Кудряшов, Сергей Ботян, Светлана Данилова-Третьяк et al.

Выполнены термогравиметрический и дифференциальный термический анализ цементных армированных плит на установке синхронного термического анализа STA 449 F Jupiter в диапазоне от +25 до +1000 °С с последующим определением областей фазовых переходов и изменения массы. Определен температурный коэффициент линейного расширения в результате выполнения дилатометрических измерений на установке DIL 402 Expedis Select в диапазоне температур от +25 до +900 °С. Получены зависимости изменения теплофизических характеристик цементных армированных плит в диапазоне температур от +25 до +1000 °С на приборе LFA 457 MicroFlash.

Валерий Рудольф, Александр Кондратович, Андрей Каминский et al.

Проведен анализ статистических данных по обрушению кровель зданий, произошедших в результате сильных снегопадов. Произведен анализ системы технического нормирования и стандартизации Республики Беларусь в области воздействий снеговой нагрузки, деформаций строительных конструкций. Обоснована необходимость регулярной уборки снега толщиной более 30 см при эксплуатации кровель, а также необходимость использования системы мониторинга горизонтальных стальных строительных конструкций. Спланированы и проведены экспериментальные исследования по проверке соответствия показаний системы мониторинга горизонтальных стальных строительных конструкций реальным и расчетным деформациям конструкций. Зафиксировано, что деформации стальной стропильной фермы под нагрузкой, определенные с применением системы мониторинга, соответствуют показаниям поверочного оборудования, а также удовлетворительно сходятся с результатами расчета.

Elvira Kaneberg

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyse supply chain network management (SCNM) in the context of emergency preparedness management (EPM). The results of this study revealed that civil-military relations are essential for EPM to function as a coordinated approach to safety and security, and are necessary to respond effectively to complex emergencies and mitigating threats to developed countries. Civil-military relations are still a concern in the context of communication, the exercise of authority, and the coordination of emergency supplies (ES) to emergency operations. Design/methodology/approach – This qualitative study is based on field observations, with attention focused on the EPM of Sweden, Finland, and Poland. The analysis of a broader SCNM through EPM was supported by semi-structured interviews among civil-military actors in Sweden, information collected from informal conversations known as “hanging out”, and secondary materials. Empirically, the analysis included a variety of civil-military relationships and identified implications for management, policy, and planning that are applicable to developed countries. Findings – The management of civil-military relations is a meaningful resource when used as an overall approach for safety and security. The integration of civil-military relations in EPM in the planning of ES is a long-standing and complex matter. The management of Swedish civil-military relations in EPM is recognising that implications for management are imbedded in continuous policy changes in, for example, the Swedish policy history. Civil-military relational complications that arise in the field of operations are impossible to anticipate during emergency planning, as those complications are grounded in policy changes. Originality/value – Escalating threats to developed countries are highlighted. The study underlines the primary measures used in studying military involvement in EPM. An understanding of SCNM as a choice for management can be obtained in future research that focuses on a broader role of the military in EPM. Sweden has emphasised a clearer role for the military by reactivating total defence planning and by evolving common practices and processes with civil actors in civil defence. Meanwhile, Poland and Finland are increasing their focus on supporting the management of civil-military policies on safety and security regarding communication, authority, and developing coordination. Consistent with findings from previous reports on SCNM, civil-military relations are essential for EPM. This study confirmed the importance of civil-military coordination, the management and practice of authority, and shared forms of communication.

Ana Laura R. Santos, Linda S.G.L. Wauben, Richard Goossens et al.

Purpose – – The purpose of this paper is to collect information about barriers and enablers experienced by international experts when transferring medical equipment to countries affected by humanitarian emergencies and to discuss the suitability of the principles of “openness”, “interconnections” and “non-linearity” of systems to understand the nature of the barriers and enablers as described by the international experts. Design/methodology/approach – – In this study, six semi-structured interviews were conducted with experts from humanitarian organizations. The interviews were based on a simplified model of the transfer of medical equipment adapted from supply chain literature. The model ensured that all the process steps undertaken by humanitarian organizations were considered. Afterwards, the interviews were transcribed and structurally analysed to derive barriers and enablers. Finally, the results were described in light of three theoretical principles of systems thinking. Findings – – In total, 14 types of barriers and 12 types of enablers were uncovered that illustrate the complexity of transferring medical equipment in humanitarian emergencies. The paper concludes with a proposal for future research to investigate if, and how, an approach guided by systems thinking could help to create a designated space for the formulation of original, synergetic solutions that address the identified barriers. Originality/value – – This study is the first to explore the specific logistic challenges implicit in the transfer of medical equipment in humanitarian emergencies with a lifecycle perspective. Furthermore, the concept of systems thinking is rather novel in the field of transfer of medical technology.

Marco Antonio Serrato-Garcia, Jaime Mora-Vargas, Roman Tomas Murillo

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to present the development and implementation of a multiobjective optimization model and information system based on mobile technology, to support decision making in humanitarian logistics operations. Design/methodology/approach – The trade-off between economic and social (deprivation) costs faced by governmental and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) involved in humanitarian logistics operations is modeled through a Pareto frontier analysis, which is obtained from a multiobjective optimization model. Such analysis is supported on an information system based on mobile technology. Findings – Results show useful managerial insights for decision-makers by considering both economic and social costs associated to humanitarian logistics operations. Such insights include the importance of timely and accurate information shared through mobile technology. Research limitations/implications – This research presents a multiobjective approach that considers social costs, which are modeled through deprivation functions. The authors suggest that a future nonlinear approach be also considered, since there will be instances where the deprivation cost is a nonlinear function throughout time. Also, the model and information system developed may not be suitable for other humanitarian aid instances, considering the specific characteristics of the events considered on this research. Practical implications – The inclusion of several types of goods, vehicles, collecting points off the ground, distributions points on the ground, available roads after a disaster took place, as well as volume and weight constraints faced under these scenarios, are considered. Social implications – Deprivation costs faced by affected population after a disaster took place are considered, which supports decision making in governmental and NGOs involved in humanitarian logistics operations toward welfare of such affected population in developing countries. Originality/value – A numerical illustration in the Latin American context is presented, the model and information system developed can be used in other developing countries or regions that face similar challenges toward humanitarian logistics operations.

Charles D'Haene, Sara Verlinde, Cathy Macharis

Purpose – – Raising standards are leading humanitarians to become increasingly interested in measuring the performance of their supply chain. A few researchers have addressed this topic, building on classical measurement theories and trying to identify the salient features of the humanitarian sector. This young body of literature must now be tested against current practice. The paper aims to discuss these issues. Design/methodology/approach – – The practitioners’ perspective is explored through a multiple case study, based on qualitative evidence, within three major humanitarian organizations. Results are discussed using a situation-actor-process – learning-action-performance model of inquiry. Preceding this investigation, a literature review delves into research on humanitarian supply chain performance measurement and presents the most relevant pieces in a general framework. Findings – – Humanitarians have elaborated measures whose essential focus is laid on service level. The more comprehensive approach advocated by researchers has received some consideration but is still poorly implemented. An issue that is given more priority by humanitarians is the accelerated supply chain integration they are going through. Originality/value – – In addition to an unprecedented literature review, this paper offers a comparative study of humanitarian organizations’ practices in the field of supply chain performance measurement. Humanitarian procurement centres, virtually ignored in literature until now, are scrutinized at a turning point of their evolution.

Christopher Sandwell

Purpose – – The purpose of this paper is to identify the underlying issues of humanitarian disaster relief logistics in order to provide an understanding of the challenges facing humanitarian organisations in a wider context. Design/methodology/approach – – The paper takes a qualitative approach, adopting a two‐dimensional multi‐strategy research design, culminating in a model of theoretical understanding. Findings – – The results suggest that operational issues encountered in humanitarian logistics are symptomatic of wider issues affecting humanitarian organisations. In understanding this, challenges were identified that, if overcome, could make for more effective relief missions. Research limitations/implications – – In terms of implications, this paper provides an opportunity for further research, including the testing of the suggested model against an extended sample size which could include senior managers of humanitarian organisations (involved in strategising), and United Nations representative(s). Practical implications – – The research raises an awareness of the characteristics of humanitarian organisations that may well be acting as barriers to greater effectiveness and efficiency. Originality/value – – Rather than maintaining an operational focus throughout, the scope and nature of this study provide an insight into humanitarian organisations that allows for a deeper level of understanding to be gained in terms of their characteristics, which broadens the context against which the ensuing discussions/arguments can prevail. The resultant model provides a catalyst for further research and discussion.

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