Hasil untuk "Trade associations"

Harry Aytug

Two decades of research on the euro's trade effects have produced estimates ranging from 4% to 30%, with no consensus on the magnitude. We find evidence that this divergence may reflect genuine heterogeneity in the euro's trade effect across country pairs rather than methodological differences alone. Using Eurostat data on 15 EU countries (12 eurozone members plus Denmark, Sweden, and the UK as controls) from 1995-2015, we estimate that euro adoption increased bilateral trade by 29% on average (14.1% after fixed effects correction), but effects range from -12% to +79% across eurozone pairs. Core eurozone pairs (e.g., Germany-France, Germany-Netherlands) show large gains, while peripheral pairs involving Finland, Greece, and Portugal saw smaller or negative effects, with some negative estimates statistically significant and interpretable as trade diversion. Pre-euro trade intensity and GDP account for over 90% of feature importance in explaining this heterogeneity. Extending to EU28, we find evidence that crisis-era adopters (Slovakia, Estonia, Latvia) pull down naive estimates to 4.3%, but accounting for fixed effects recovers estimates of 13.4%, consistent with the EU15 fixed-effects baseline of 14.1%. Illustrative counterfactual analysis suggests non-eurozone members would have experienced varied effects: UK (+33%), Sweden (+22%), Denmark (+19%). The wide range of prior estimates appears to be largely a feature of the data, not a bug in the methods.

Alejandra Martinez

I study how firms adjust to temporary disruptions in international trade relationships organized through relational contracts. I exploit an extreme, plausibly exogenous weather shock during the 2010-11 La Niña season that restricted Colombian flower exporters' access to cargo terminals. Using transaction-level data from the Colombian-U.S. flower trade, I show that importers with less-exposed supplier portfolios are less likely to terminate disrupted relationships, instead tolerating shipment delays. In contrast, firms facing greater exposure experience higher partner turnover and are more likely to exit the market, with exit accounting for a substantial share of relationship separations. These findings demonstrate that idiosyncratic shocks to buyer-seller relationships can propagate into persistent changes in firms' trading portfolios.

Emanuele Coccia, Martino Bernasconi, Andrea Celli

We study the problem of contextual online bilateral trade. At each round, the learner faces a seller-buyer pair and must propose a trade price without observing their private valuations for the item being sold. The goal of the learner is to post prices to facilitate trades between the two parties. Before posting a price, the learner observes a $d$-dimensional context vector that influences the agent's valuations. Prior work in the contextual setting has focused on linear models. In this work, we tackle a general nonparametric setting in which the buyer's and seller's valuations behave according to arbitrary Lipschitz functions of the context. We design an algorithm that leverages contextual information through a hierarchical tree construction and guarantees regret $\widetilde{O}(T^{{(d-1)}/d})$. Remarkably, our algorithm operates under two stringent features of the setting: (1) one-bit feedback, where the learner only observes whether a trade occurred or not, and (2) strong budget balance, where the learner cannot subsidize or profit from the market participants. We further provide a matching lower bound in the full-feedback setting, demonstrating the tightness of our regret bound.

Michelena Gabriel, Ernst Christoph, Pablo Bertin

This paper assesses the global employment and trade effects of renewed tariff escalation following the reintroduction of the United States' America First strategy in 2025. Using a multiregional input-output (MRIO) framework integrated with a trade model, the analysis captures endogenous adjustments in bilateral trade shares and final demand in response to changes in prices and competitiveness. Three scenarios are simulated to reflect alternative configurations of trade policy: existing tariffs without retaliation, updated tariffs including retaliatory measures, and a potential scenario characterized by de-escalation of the trade conflict. The results indicate that tariff increases generate widespread employment and export losses, with cumulative global job declines exceeding 23 million in the most adverse scenario. Informal and low-skilled workers bear the largest burden, accounting for more than 80 percent of total employment losses, while high-income and upper middle-income countries experience significant contractions in export volumes.

Naoto Minakawa, Kiyoshi Izumi, Hiroki Sakaji

The gravity models has been studied to analyze interaction between two objects such as trade amount between a pair of countries, human migration between a pair of countries and traffic flow between two cities. Particularly in the international trade, predicting trade amount is instrumental to industry and government in business decision making and determining economic policies. Whereas the gravity models well captures such interaction between objects, the model simplifies the interaction to extract essential relationships or needs handcrafted features to drive the models. Recent studies indicate the connection between graph neural networks (GNNs) and the gravity models in international trade. However, to our best knowledge, hardly any previous studies in the this domain directly predicts trade amount by GNNs. We propose GGAE (Gravity-informed Graph Auto-encoder) and its surrogate model, which is inspired by the gravity model, showing trade amount prediction by the gravity model can be formulated as an edge weight prediction problem in GNNs and solved by GGAE and its surrogate model. Furthermore, we conducted experiments to indicate GGAE with GNNs can improve trade amount prediction compared to the traditional gravity model by considering complex relationships.

Ilya Hajiaghayi, MohammadTaghi Hajiaghayi, Gary Peng et al.

We study bilateral trade with a broker, where a buyer and seller interact exclusively through the broker. The broker strategically maximizes her payoff through arbitrage by trading with the buyer and seller at different prices. We study whether the presence of the broker interferes with the mechanism's gains-from-trade (GFT) achieving a constant-factor approximation to the first-best gains-from-trade (FB). We first show that the GFT achieves a $1 / 36$-approximation to the FB even if the broker runs an optimal posted-pricing mechanism under symmetric agents with monotone-hazard-rate distributions. Beyond posted-pricing mechanisms, even if the broker uses an arbitrary incentive-compatible (IC) and individually-rational (IR) mechanism that maximizes her expected profit, we prove that it induces a $1 / 2$-approximation to the first-best GFT when the buyer and seller's distributions are uniform distributions with arbitrary support. This bound is shown to be tight. We complement such results by proving that if the broker uses an arbitrary profit-maximizing IC and IR mechanism, there exists a family of problem instances under which the approximation factor to the first-best GFT becomes arbitrarily bad. We show that this phenomenon persists even if we restrict one of the buyer's or seller's distributions to have a singleton support, or even in the symmetric setting where the buyer and seller have identical distributions.

Yin-Ting Zhang, Mu-Yao Li, Wei-Xing Zhou

The Russia-Ukraine conflict is a growing concern worldwide and poses serious threats to regional and global food security. Using monthly trade data for maize, rice, and wheat from 2016/1 to 2022/12, this paper constructs three international crop trade networks (iCTNs) and an aggregate international food trade network (iFTN). We aim to examine the structural changes following the occurrence of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. We find significant shifts in the number of edges, average degree, density, efficiency, and natural connectivity in the third quarter of 2022, particularly in the international wheat trade network. Additionally, we have shown that political reasons have caused more pronounced changes in the trade connections between the economies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and Russia than with Ukraine. This paper could provide insights into the negative impact of geopolitical conflicts on the global food system and encourage a series of effective strategies to mitigate the negative impact of the conflict on global food trade.

Joanna Sitko

This article aims at examining the extent to which the Polish and European Union adjudication bodies apply the EUCJ guidelines regarding determination of each type of the right to a trade mark with reputation (TMwR) infringement. The author analyses and interprets legal provisions of EUTMR and argumentations of variety decisions of European Union and Polish adjudication bodies concerning the problem of an infringement of a right to a TMwR. A close analysis of the latest judicial decisions concerning the TMwR protection indicates that, in principle, detailed guidelines regarding the occurrence of each form of the TMwR infringement are already in place. However, there are still some deviations from these guidelines, most notably in the Polish jurisdiction, since adjudicating bodies tend to see parasitism in the probability of association of juxtaposing trade marks alone. Thus, it happens that a three-step test on the likelihood of transferring trade mark with reputation associations onto goods/services designated with a third party mark (as described below) is omitted. This is especially significant where a later sign is used for goods/service that are not similar to those that are signed by the TMwR. Furthermore, an enhanced evidentiary standard applied in the Intel case seems to be frequently absent in the practice of law application. Changes in the economic behaviour of the average consumer or a serious likelihood that such a change will occur are hardly ever taken into account in the assessment of the activity detrimental to the distinctive character or the repute of a TMwR. Although many years have passed since key preliminary rulings were issued by the EUCJ, which shaped the principles of examining the evidence that pointed to the possibility of an infringement of a right to a TMwR, some negligence and shortcomings in the application of the law in this respect have not been entirely eliminated. Hopefully, the years to come will witness a greater awareness of the binding provisions and principles of their application among adjudication bodies and interested parties alike.

Jeyhun Jeyhul ISLAMLI

The harmonisation of tax systems among EU member states is essential for creating a unified market and economy. Differences in tax systems hinder economic convergence and integration, especially in the context of increased market competition. Harmonising EU tax policies, while considering national specificities, can address these challenges. The Treaty of Rome, which established the European Union, defines tax harmonisation as the alignment of tax strategies within the framework of integration cooperation, including policy coordination, standardisation, and partial unification of tax systems within international regional associations. This process aims to create a cohesive tax structure and a unified procedure for major tax collection across EU countries, without requiring complete unification. The primary areas of tax harmonisation include the alignment of indirect tax collection mechanisms (such as VAT and excise duties) and the unification of corporate taxation. The harmonisation of VAT has been particularly significant, transitioning through various stages to enhance trade transparency within the EU. Key legislation, including the VAT Directive (2006/112/EC), has established a standardised framework for VAT collection, based on the principle of destination-based taxation. Efforts to modernise the VAT system continue, with initiatives like 'VAT in the Digital Age' aimed at improving compliance and reducing fraud. Excise taxes within the EU have also been unified, with measures to standardise and simplify the processes for excisable goods. The general provisions for excise duties are outlined in Council Directive (EU) 2020/262, which includes digitised supervision of goods movement and harmonised customs procedures. Specific directives address the taxation of alcoholic beverages, tobacco products, and oil, setting minimum excise rates and allowing for national variations where necessary.

Montassar Kahia, Anis Omri

Sustaining the environment is essential for Saudi Arabia, especially given the country’s high dependence on oil rents. While these rents have historically fueled economic growth, they have also contributed significantly to environmental degradation. Sustainable resource use and a transition from conventional to renewable energy sources are essential for achieving carbon neutrality and keeping the upsurge in global temperature below 2°C. In addition, sustainable practices help to preserve ecosystems, biodiversity, and natural resources, which are essential for the survival of all living organisms. Consequently, this study fills a significant empirical gap by investigating the moderating effects of technological innovation, environmental innovation, and green energy technologies in the oil rents and environmental sustainability nexus in Saudi Arabia from 1990 to 2022. Although there are significant direct associations between oil rents and environmental sustainability, the existing literature has not investigated empirical research on the moderating effects of technological innovation, environmental innovation, and green energy technologies in the oil rents and environmental sustainability nexus. To do this, the study implements the model of dynamic AutoRegressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) simulations. The results indicate that rising oil rents, economic growth, trade, and urbanization in Saudi Arabia worsen environmental sustainability while increasing green energy technologies, technological innovation, and environmental innovation enhances environmental sustainability. Interestingly, the findings of the moderating effects of technological innovation, environmental innovation, and green energy technologies in the oil rents and environmental sustainability nexus show that the predicted coefficients of the multiplicative interaction terms are both positive and statistically significant. This demonstrates that these technologies play crucial roles in mitigating the negative effects of oil rents on environmental sustainability in Saudi Arabia. Based on the outcomes, promoting technological innovation, prioritizing investments in green sources and reducing dependence on natural resource extraction are key policy recommendations that can significantly bolster environmental sustainability in Saudi Arabia.

Wen-Jie Xie, Na Wei, Wei-Xing Zhou

Energy security and energy trade are the cornerstones of global economic and social development. The structural robustness of the international oil trade network (iOTN) plays an important role in the global economy. We integrate the machine learning optimization algorithm, game theory, and utility theory for learning an oil trade decision-making model which contains the benefit endowment and cost endowment of economies in international oil trades. We have reconstructed the network degree, clustering coefficient, and closeness of the iOTN well to verify the effectiveness of the model. In the end, policy simulations based on game theory and agent-based model are carried out in a more realistic environment. We find that the export-oriented economies are more vulnerable to be affected than import-oriented economies after receiving external shocks. Moreover, the impact of the increase and decrease of trade friction costs on the international oil trade is asymmetrical and there are significant differences between international organizations.

Viktor Stojkoski, Philipp Koch, Eva Coll et al.

Despite global efforts to harmonize international trade statistics, our understanding of digital trade and its implications remains limited. Here, we introduce a method to estimate bilateral exports and imports for dozens of sectors starting from the corporate revenue data of large digital firms. This method allows us to provide estimates for digitally ordered and delivered trade involving digital goods (e.g. video games), productized services (e.g. digital advertising), and digital intermediation fees (e.g. hotel rental), which together we call digital products. We use these estimates to study five key aspects of digital trade. We find that, compared to trade in physical goods, digital product exports are more spatially concentrated, have been growing faster, and can offset trade balance estimates, like the United States trade deficit on physical goods. We also find that countries that have decoupled economic growth from greenhouse gas emissions tend to have larger digital exports and that digital products exports contribute positively to the complexity of economies. This method, dataset, and findings provide a new lens to understand the impact of international trade in digital products.

Derek Liu, Francesco Piccoli, Katie Chen et al.

Wash trading is a form of market manipulation where the same entity sells an asset to themselves to drive up market prices, launder money under the cover of a legitimate transaction, or claim a tax loss without losing ownership of an asset. Although the practice is illegal with traditional assets, lack of supervision in the non-fungible token market enables criminals to wash trade and scam unsuspecting buyers while operating under regulators radar. AnChain.AI designed an algorithm that flags transactions within an NFT collection history as wash trades when a wallet repurchases a token within 30 days of previously selling it. The algorithm also identifies intermediate transactions within a wash trade cycle. Testing on 7 popular NFT collections reveals that on average, 0.14% of transactions, 0.11% of wallets, and 0.16% of tokens in each collection are involved in wash trading. These wash trades generate an overall total price manipulation, sales, and repurchase profit of \$900K, \$1.1M, and negative \$1.6M respectively. The results draw attention to the prevalent market manipulation taking place and inform unsuspecting buyers which tokens and sellers may be involved in criminal activity.

Jin Hyuk Choi, Jetlir Duraj, Kim Weston

We prove the existence of a continuous-time Radner equilibrium with multiple agents and transaction costs. The agents are incentivized to trade towards a targeted number of shares throughout the trading period and seek to maximize their expected wealth minus a penalty for deviating from their targets. Their wealth is further reduced by transaction costs that are proportional to the number of stock shares traded. The agents' targeted number of shares is publicly known, making the resulting equilibrium fully revealing. In equilibrium, each agent optimally chooses to trade for an initial time interval before stopping trade. Our equilibrium construction and analysis involves identifying the order in which the agents stop trade. The transaction cost level impacts the equilibrium stock price drift. We analyze the equilibrium outcomes and provide numerical examples.

Omer Cruz Caro, Manuel Antonio Morante Dávila, Alex Javier Sánchez Pantaleón et al.

Analyzing the local value chain in coffee-producing regions can help identify obstacles and opportunities for economic development and growth. Faced with this, the objective of the study was to analyze the value chain in the Amazon region. For which, the survey was used to collect information from producers and those involved in the value chain. To map the chain, the GIZ Value Links methodology was used; the study population was 34 producers and representatives of organizations and institutions. The coffee value chain in the Amazon region is made up of producers as the first link, after them the local collectors such as associations and cooperatives are present and in turn free trade who are the intermediary buyers. Government institutions. The main international export markets are Canada, the United States, and Germany. The main difficulty for producers is the constant coffee pests that prevent good production, along with the lack of irrigation in the plots.

G. N. Obukhova

The subject. Proclaiming the ideas of partnership and solidarity, the state designates a completely new development focused on socio-economic relations in Russia, involving new principles of interaction between society, business and the state. The revision of the status of subjects of social partnership will be aimed at further development of the system of guarantees of human and civil rights and freedoms. Purpose of the study. The purpose of this work is a comprehensive analysis of the trade union as a subject of social partnership based on the study, analysis and generalization of the scientific base, current legislation and practice of its application. Effective protection of the rights and legitimate interests of employees is possible only if there is an effective mechanism of implementation of trade union control over their compliance. Therefore, it seems that in the near future the share of public control over compliance with labor legislation and labor protection should increase. Methodology. In the process of achieving the goal and solving the tasks set, the general scientific dialectical methods of cognition, as well as logical, historical, comparative legal and formal legal methods were used. Structural and systemic methods are also the basis of the study. The conclusions of the work are based on dialectical unity and the struggle of opposites. The main results. In the process of scientific research, it can be concluded that a society should be able to exercise public control over the observance of human rights in this society. During the reforms, trade unions lost the right to legislative initiative at the federal level, the rights to state supervision of compliance with labor legislation and the state of labor protection, and consideration of individual labor disputes. At the same time, trade unions have re-ceived a number of new rights, for example, to participate in the resolution of collective labor disputes, in collective bargaining, to conclude social partnership agreements, etc.Despite the declared principle of independence of trade unions from the state, as a result, it is impossible to create and legalize the legal status of the trade union movement without a state regulator. Therefore, the independence of any legal entity is, in principle, relative. Nevertheless, associations of employees are provided with a sufficient amount of corporate independence, which actually ensures their national and individual characteristics. Conclusions. Trade unions are an important element of civil society. Without increasing their role, it is impossible to achieve harmony in social and labor relations. In this regard, the question of the new status of trade unions in Russia should be raised. This conclusion is justified by the fact that free and independent trade unions are the guarantors of social justice and security. Consequently, the use of the market mechanism by the population depends on whether it is possible to regulate the labor market within the framework of law and policy. Moreover, the labor market improves the status of employees in relation to employers only with strong trade unions.

Giovanni Carnazza, Pierluigi Vellucci

European Monetary Union continues to be characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances. Germany has shown increasing current account surpluses at the expense of the other member states (especially the European periphery). Since the creation of a single currency has implied the impossibility of implementing competitive devaluations, trade imbalances within a monetary union can be considered unfair behaviour. We have modelled Eurozone trade flows in goods through a weighted network from 1995 to 2019. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that applies this methodology to this kind of data. Network analysis has allowed us to estimate a series of important centrality measures. A polarisation phenomenon emerges in relation to the growth of German dominance. The common currency has then not been capable to remove trade asymmetry, increasing the distance between surplus and deficit countries. This situation should be addressed with expansionary policies on the demand side at national and supranational level.

Simon B. Ascher, Rebecca Scherzer, Jame A. de Lemos et al.

Background Assessing the risk of serious adverse events (SAEs) during hypertension treatment is important for understanding the benefit‐harm trade‐offs of lower blood pressure goals. It is unknown whether high‐sensitivity cardiac troponin T (hs‐cTnT) and N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP) provide information about SAEs. Methods and Results In SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), hs‐cTnT and NT‐proBNP were measured at baseline in 8828 (94.3%) and 8836 (94.4%) participants, respectively. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to evaluate hs‐cTnT and NT‐proBNP associations with a composite of SPRINT’s SAEs of interest: hypotension, syncope, bradycardia, acute kidney injury, electrolyte abnormalities, and injurious falls. Elevations in hs‐cTnT and NT‐proBNP were associated with increased composite SAE risk (hazard ratio [HR] per 2‐fold higher hs‐cTnT: 1.15; 95% CI, 1.06‒1.25; HR per 2‐fold higher NT‐proBNP: 1.09; 95% CI, 1.05‒1.14). Compared with both hs‐cTnT and NT‐proBNP in the lower tertiles, both biomarkers in the highest tertile was associated with increased composite SAE risk (HR, 1.56; 95% CI, 1.32‒1.84). Composite SAE risk was higher in the intensive‐treatment group than in the standard‐treatment group for participants with both biomarkers in the lower tertiles, but similar between treatment groups for participants with both biomarkers in the highest tertile (P for interaction=0.008). Conclusions Elevations in hs‐cTnT and NT‐proBNP individually and in combination are associated with higher composite SAE risk in SPRINT. The differential impact of blood pressure treatment on SAE risk across combined biomarker categories may have implications for identifying individuals with more favorable benefit‐harm profiles for intensive blood pressure lowering.

N. V. Dziubanovska, V. V. Maslii, Z. B. Lytvyn et al.

International trade is an important component of the national economy of any country in the world, as well as a leading form of international economic relations. Changes in the main indicators of foreign trade, such as exports, imports, trade balance, can cause significant imbalances in the parameters of economic growth of the subjects of such relations.The article proposes an approach to analyzing the intensity of dynamic changes in international trade in goods on the example of EU countries during 2004-2021 with using such methodological approaches as grouping, comparison, calculation and analysis of absolute and relative characteristics of dynamics. For this purpose, two groups of countries where distinguished: countries that were members of the EU before 2004 (Austria, Belgium, Great Britain, Denmark, Ireland, Germany, Spain, Italy, Luxembourg, Netherlands, France, Greece, Portugal, Sweden and Finland) and countries that became members of the EU after 2004 (Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Malta, Poland, Slovakia, Slovenia, Czech Republic, Hungary, Cyprus. Bulgaria, Romania and Croatia). In carrying out the study, the cost indicators of trade transactions of the EU countries were used. With the help of such indicators as specific weight, chain and basic growth rates, coefficients of advance, the intensity of export and import dynamics in terms of selected groups where analyzed. The main trends and determinants of the development of export import activities, under the influence of which there were certain changes in the international trade of the EU countries during the period under study, were identified. These determinants include EU enlargement in 2004, the 2009 financial crisis and the COVID 2019 pandemic. Three periods of development of foreign trade of the member countries of this integration group are distinguished. The 5 largest exporter and importer countries, as well as the largest net exporters and net importers in terms of allocated groups, were identified. The results of the analysis also indicate that the countries that joined the EU after 2004 actively used their membership in the context of the development of foreign economic activity: they rapidly increased the volume of merchandise exports and imports. It has been proved that the proposed approach is effective for analyzing the nature of dynamic changes in international trade of any international organizations, integration associations, etc.

Büşra Selin Kepenek, Engin Kepenek, İbrahim Bakır

Expenditures, such as repair, heating and lighting costs, and payment of mosque staff’s salaries, are the main cost items that need to be satisfied for mosques to continue their services. Throughout history, these expenses have been met sometimes with the state budget, sometimes through waqfs and associations, and sometimes with the cash aid provided by the people directly in Turkey. Adding a commercial function to the mosque, which was built for the sake of continuous income, has been seen in the history of Turkey since the Ottoman period. However, the commercial units dedicated to the mosque during this period were not always close to the mosque; sometimes they could also be located in very remote location. Today, a type of structure is built which can be called a trade and religious building in the lower floor of the mosque, or as a part of the same floor due to space shortage, cost reduction etc. This type of building, which was interpreted with different perspectives, caused problems in terms of perceptibility, ratio and proportion, visuality, accessibility, noise pollution, and the moral values of the mosque, and even became the subject of lawsuits for the closure of commercial functions. In this context, the commercial functions that the mosques added to the structure in order to find financial resources were examined throughout the city center of Antalya. Accordingly, the architectural projects and zoning status of the 15 identified mosques were examined, and a spatial and configuration analysis was made. The functionality of the mosques was discussed with the mosque community, its officials, and the people in the area close to the mosque via focus group discussions, and examples of the issue brought to the judiciary were examined.