Mental Models of Causal Structure in Economics and Psychology
Sandro Ambuehl, Rahul Bhui, Heidi C. Thysen
A burgeoning literature in economics studies how people form beliefs about the causal structures linking economic variables, and what happens when those beliefs are mistaken. We survey this research and connect it to a rich literature in cognitive science. After providing an accessible introduction to causal Directed Acyclic Graphs, the dominant modeling approach, we review theory and evidence addressing three nested questions: how individuals reason within a fully parameterized causal structure, how they estimate its parameters, and how they learn such structures to begin with. We then discuss methodological challenges and review applications in microeconomics, macroeconomics, political economy, and business.
Changes in Body Mass Index during the COVID-19 Pandemic among Indonesian Adolescents: The Role of Sex, Urban Area, Baseline BMI, and Appetitive Traits
Eveline Sarintohe, William J. Burk, Jacqueline M. Vink
et al.
Introduction: Little is known about how the COVID-19 situation affected weight development among Indonesian adolescents. This longitudinal study examined whether, and for whom, the COVID-19 situation affected weight outcomes over time among adolescents from private schools and higher socio-economic positions in Indonesia, where being overweight is a rather prevalent characteristic. This study specifically examined whether appetitive traits (i.e., emotional overeating, food responsiveness) as well as baseline zBMI, sex, and urban area could explain changes in zBMI. Methods: At baseline, 411 adolescents from 5 private schools in Indonesia (53.3% males, Mage = 12.02 years, SD = 0.45) filled out questionnaires on appetitive traits and background characteristics. In addition, their height and weight were measured. Of these, 336 adolescents (81.8%) also participated at follow-up. At follow-up, height and weight were measured or reported. We used linear regression to analyze the association between predictors and interactions with zBMI. Results: The results showed a significant decrease in zBMI over time, with a lower average zBMI during COVID-19 compared to before COVID-19. Female adolescents and adolescents with higher baseline zBMI values particularly tended to show this zBMI decreasing pattern. We did not find statistically significant main effects of baseline emotional overeating, food responsiveness, and urban area or any interactions. Conclusions: Indonesian adolescents appeared to decrease in terms of zBMI during COVID-19, particularly females and adolescents with higher pre-COVID-19 zBMI. Our findings suggest that (culturally-specific) contextual changes (i.e., less exposure to the Indonesian food environment at schools and more exposure to the home environment) might have a beneficial impact in terms of preventing overweight among Indonesian adolescents, particularly among those being more vulnerable (i.e., having higher baseline zBMI).
Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Nutritional diseases. Deficiency diseases
When Experimental Economics Meets Large Language Models: Evidence-based Tactics
Shu Wang, Zijun Yao, Shuhuai Zhang
et al.
Advancements in large language models (LLMs) have sparked a growing interest in measuring and understanding their behavior through experimental economics. However, there is still a lack of established guidelines for designing economic experiments for LLMs. Inspired by principles from experimental economics with insights from LLM research in artificial intelligence, we outline key considerations in the experimental design and implementation stage, and perform two sets of experiments to assess the impact of these considerations on LLMs' responses. Based on our findings, we discuss seven practical tactics for conducting experiments with LLMs. Our study enhances the design, replicability, and generalizability of LLM experiments, and broadens the scope of experimental economics in the digital age.
Inequality's Economic and Social Roots: the Role of Social Networks and Homophily
Matthew O. Jackson
I discuss economic and social sources of inequality and elaborate on the role of social networks in inequality, economic immobility, and economic inefficiencies. The lens of social networks clarifies how the entanglement of people's information, opportunities, and behaviors with those of their friends and family leads to persistent differences across communities, resulting in inequality in education, employment, income, health, and wealth. The key role of homophily in separating groups within the network is highlighted. A network perspective's policy implications differ substantially from a narrower economic perspective that ignores social structure. I discuss the importance of ``policy cocktails'' that include aspects that are aimed at both the economic and social forces driving inequality.
Rethinking Competition as a Non-Beneficial Mechanism in Economic Systems
Marcelo S. Tedesco, Gonzalo Marquez
Persistent economic competition is often justified as a mechanism of innovation, efficiency, and welfare maximization. Yet empirical evidence across disciplines reveals that competition systematically generates fragility, inequality, and ecological degradation, emergent outcomes not of isolated failures but of underlying systemic dynamics. This work reconceptualizes economic ecosystems as real complex adaptive systems, structurally isomorphic with biological and social ecosystems. Integrating complexity science, evolutionary biology, ecology, and economic and business theory, we classify economic interactions according to their systemic effects and propose a theoretical model of ecosystemic equilibrium based on the predominance of beneficial versus non-beneficial relationships. Recognizing economies as ecologically embedded and structurally interdependent systems provides a novel framework for analyzing systemic resilience, reframing competition as a non-beneficial mechanism.
Autism Spectrum Disorder and collective catering service: results of the pilot study FOOD-AUT
Maria Vittoria Conti, Sara Santero, Chiara Breda
et al.
ObjectiveIndividuals with Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD) often exhibit a low dietary diversity due to food selectivity that leads them to a marked preference for high-energy-density food, exposing them to risk of malnutrition. Despite these aspects, specific recommendations and targeted menus for this population are missing. The pilot study FOOD-AUT addresses this issue by developing canteen menus meeting the nutritional and sensory needs of adults with ASD, aiming to reduce their food selectivity, and consequently improving their health.MethodsThe project, funded by Gruppo Pellegrini S.p.A, was conducted at the daycare service of Sacra Famiglia Onlus Foundation, between March-2022 to March-2023. The study was divided into two phases. Observational phase: a comparison was made between the enrolled subjects’ nutritional needs and the nutrient content of the administered menus during the daycare service. Then mealtime compliance was assessed using standardized meal evaluation forms, both quantitative and qualitative. Intervention phase: canteen menus targeted to the individuals’ nutritional and sensory needs were administered and their acceptability was evaluated.ResultsTwenty-two individuals with ASD, aged 19–48, 72.7% males, were enrolled. Overweight and obesity prevalence were 54.5 and 18.2%, respectively. The observational phase showed how the most accepted foods had specific sensorial characteristics in line with the scientific literature. Adapting the menus improved food acceptance and reduced food waste.ConclusionThe results highlighted the need for adapted menus and greater attention to the way meals are delivered and consumed to improve nutritional status and therefore health of this population at increased risk of malnutrition.Clinical trial registrationClinicalTrial.gov, unique identifier: NCT05978895.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply
The Potential Benefits and Mechanism of Action of Tropical Nuts Against Metabolic Syndrome: A Literature Review
Amalia Rani Setyawati, Gemala Anjani, Endang Mahati
Background: Metabolic syndrome is a significant risk factor for both type 2 diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease, with a high prevalence in Asia Pacific, particularly in Indonesia. To reduce its prevalence, several studies have recommended the use of tropical nuts, which can be developed as functional foods and complementary treatment. In this context, the bioactivities of tropical nuts can largely be attributed to their rich content of monounsaturated fatty acids, polyunsaturated fatty acids, fiber, minerals, vitamins, phytosterols, and polyphenols.
Objectives: This literature review aims to evaluate the potential benefits and mechanism of action of tropical nuts against metabolic syndrome.
Methods: The study design was a literature review of several articles from 3 online databases, including PubMed, Google Scholar, and ScienceDirect.
Discussions: The results showed that tropical nuts (peanut, sacha inchi, cashew, tropical almond, and Brazil nut) had several biologically active components, such as arginine, fiber, fatty acid, mineral, vitamin, phenolic compounds, resveratrol, and phytosterol. The test samples were reported to have the ability to modulate Nrf2, SOD, MDA, GSH, GPx, and CAT due to their antioxidant activity. In inflammation, tropical nuts had a significant effect on NF-κB, NLRP3, TNF-ɑ, IL-8, IL-1ꞵ, IL-6, and IL-10. The results also showed their ability to enhance lipid synthesis, nitric oxide production, advanced glycation end-product, prostaglandin, SIRT3, homocysteine, protein kinase C, adhesion molecules, platelet aggregation, GLP-1, PYY, AGRP, PPARɑ/ꞵ/δ, GLUT4, and insulin receptor.
Conclusions: Tropical nuts had beneficial effects on metabolic syndrome due to their bioactivities, including antioxidants, anti-inflammatory, anti-obesity, antidiabetic, antihypertensive, anti-dyslipidemia, and cardioprotective.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply
Overtourism in Uzungöl Trabzon, Türkiye: A Study Based on Tourist Reviews
Melik Onur Güzel, Eşref Ay, Ozan Çatir
Uzungöl is a popular natural route and a major tourist attraction in Turkey, but recently overtourism has become a major problem. With the increase in the number of visitors, rapid construction, concreting and various forms of pollution have had a negative impact on the destination of Uzungöl and its environment. The aim of this study is to reveal the evidence for the existence of overtourism in Uzungöl through visitors’ reviews on online platforms and to determine in which areas overtourism is effective. In this study, which was conducted using an exploratory approach, it was observed that many visitors reviewed on overtourism in Uzungöl using TripAdvisor. These reviews were analysed using content analysis. As a result of the analysis, it was found that visitors’ reviews focused on three themes related to overtourism in Uzungöl. These are environmental, economic, and socio-cultural themes. As a result of the study, it was determined that environmental concerns are more prominent in terms of overtourism. In addition, it
was understood that tourists visiting the region have a negative image in terms of overbuilding, concretisation, and unplanned urbanisation.
Recreation. Leisure, Business
Combination of carboxymethylcellulose and wood hemicelluloses to enhance encapsulation efficiency and microcapsule wall thickness
Abedalghani Halahlah, Felix Abik, Heikki Suhonen
et al.
Wood hemicelluloses have been used as a wall material for spray-dried microencapsulation of polyphenols. Nevertheless, their incomplete water solubility could negatively impact their encapsulation efficiency (EE) and the formation of a complete protective layer, which might be alleviated synergistically by combining them with carboxymethylcellulose (CMC). Here, we explored the effects of CMC addition (0.5–3.0 %, w/w of WM) on the capacity of galactoglucomannans (GGM) and glucuronoxylans (GX) to retain bioactive compounds of bilberry during spray drying; and its contribution to the formation of wall thickness. The results revealed that EE of GGM and GX increased by 4–8 % with the CMC addition at 0.5 %, but significantly declined at higher CMC concentrations. Adding CMC improved the microcapsules' antioxidant activities, surface smoothness, and solubility, but had no effect on their particle size, thermal properties, amorphous structure, or moisture content. The majority of the GGM and GX microcapsules had a hollow internal structure surrounded by continuous wall matrix with a thickness of about 2.3–2.6 μm, which increased to 3.1–3.5 μm with the addition of 0.5 % CMC. Therefore, using CMC at an optimized proportion as a co-encapsulant improved wood hemicelluloses' ability to protect bioactive compounds during spray drying and enhanced microcapsule wall formation.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
Generative AI as Economic Agents
Nicole Immorlica, Brendan Lucier, Aleksandrs Slivkins
Traditionally, AI has been modeled within economics as a technology that impacts payoffs by reducing costs or refining information for human agents. Our position is that, in light of recent advances in generative AI, it is increasingly useful to model AI itself as an economic agent. In our framework, each user is augmented with an AI agent and can consult the AI prior to taking actions in a game. The AI agent and the user have potentially different information and preferences over the communication, which can result in equilibria that are qualitatively different than in settings without AI.
Thermal Macroeconomics: An axiomatic theory of aggregate economic phenomena
N. J. Chater, R. S. MacKay
An axiomatic approach to macroeconomics based on the mathematical structure of thermodynamics is presented. It deduces relations between aggregate properties of an economy, concerning quantities and flows of goods and money, prices and the value of money, without any recourse to microeconomic foundations about the preferences and actions of individual economic agents. The approach has three important payoffs. 1) it provides a new and solid foundation for aspects of standard macroeconomic theory such as the existence of market prices, the value of money, the meaning of inflation, the symmetry and negative-definiteness of the macro-Slutsky matrix, and the Le Chatelier-Samuelson principle, without relying on implausibly strong rationality assumptions over individual microeconomic agents. 2) the approach generates new results, including implications for money flow and trade when two or more economies are put in contact, in terms of new concepts such as economic entropy, economic temperature, goods' values and money capacity. Some of these are related to standard economic concepts (eg marginal utility of money, market prices). Yet our approach derives them at a purely macroeconomic level and gives them a meaning independent of usual restrictions. Others of the concepts, such as economic entropy and temperature, have no direct counterparts in standard economics, but they have important economic interpretations and implications, as aggregate utility and the inverse marginal aggregate utility of money, respectively. 3) this analysis promises to open up new frontiers in macroeconomics by building a bridge to ideas from non-equilibrium thermodynamics. More broadly, we hope that the economic analogue of entropy (governing the possible transitions between states of economic systems) may prove to be as fruitful for the social sciences as entropy has been in the natural sciences.
en
econ.GN, physics.soc-ph
The Economics of Climate Adaptation: An Assessment
Anna Josephson, Rodrigo Guerra Su, Greg Collins
et al.
The cost of the impacts of climate change have already proven to be larger than previously believed. Understanding the costs and benefits of adapting to the changing climate is necessary to make targeted and appropriate investment decisions. In this paper, we use a narrative review to synthesize the current literature on the economic case for climate adaptation, with the objective of assessing the value (economic and otherwise) of climate change adaptation, as well as the strength of the methods and evidence that have been used to date. We find that skepticism is warranted about many of the estimates about costs and benefits of climate adaptation and their underlying assumptions, due to a range of complexities associated with (1) uncertainty in distinguishing the economic impacts of climate change from seasonal variability; (2) difficulties in non-market valuation; (3) lack of consistent data collection over time at multiple scales; and (4) distributional inequities in access to proactive adaptation and recovery funding. While useful for broad stroke advocacy purposes, these estimates fall short of the refinement and rigor needed to inform investment decision-making, particularly at micro and local scales. Most estimates rely on cost benefit analysis and do not effectively address these issues. An emergent and promising literature tackles alternative estimation strategies and attempts to address some of them, including the complexities of uncertainty and non-market valuation.
Characteristics and properties of a polysaccharide isolated from Wolfiporia cocos as potential dietary supplement for IBS
Xuan Yang, Shun Lu, Yuhan Feng
et al.
IntroductionAs low FODMAP (Fermentable oligosaccharides, disaccharides, monosaccharides and polyols) diet therapy is recommended for most of Irritable Bowel Syndrome (IBS) patients, the consequent insufficient of dietary fibers (DFs) intake exert an adverse impact on intestinal health. It is necessary to find suitable DFs for IBS patients.MethodsThis study extracted a water-insoluble polysaccharide from Wolfiporia cocos (WIP) by alkali-extraction and acid-precipitation method. Its molecular weight was detected by high performance gel permeation chromatography (HPGPC) analysis. The structure of WIP was analyzed by Fourier transform infrared (FT-IR) spectrum, Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectra and X-ray diffraction (XRD). The properties related to stability, digestion, viscosity, osmotic activity, adsorption and fermentation were investigated, aimed to explore the feasibility of WIP as a new DF supplement for patients with IBS. In addition, 16S rRNA sequencing analysis was conducted to explore its effects on IBS-related gut microbiota.Results and DiscussionThe results showed that WIP had a single homogeneous composition and the molecular weight was 8.1 × 103 Da. WIP was indicated as a kind of pyranose form with β anomeric configuration and the main chain of WIP was 1,3-β-glucan with amorphous structure. In addition to good thermal stability, WIP also has low bioavailability and can reach the colon mostly without being digested. Moreover, the low viscosity and osmotic activity, the high water- swelling and water/oil-holding capacity, fructose adsorption capacity and poor fermentation performance of WIP demonstrated that it is suitable for IBS patients. It is worth noting that WIP regulates IBS associated gut microbiota effectively, such as the abundance of Lachnospiraceae and Prevotella. These findings provide a theoretical basis for the development of WIP as a dietary supplement for IBS patients with low FODMAP diet therapy.GRAPHICAL ABSTRACT
Nutrition. Foods and food supply
Implementación y puesta en valor de una nueva práctica profesional en la Carrera de Nutrición y Dietética de la Universidad de Chile: Diversificando el campo laboral del Nutricionista
Paola Caceres-Rodríguez, Christopher Chavarria-Tapia, Karen Basfi-fer-Obregón
et al.
Introducción: En Chile, la situación laboral del nutricionista se ha visto afectada por la numerosa competencia y limitados cupos en las áreas laborales tradicionales. En consecuencia, la carrera de Nutrición y Dietética de la Universidad de Chile decide abrir una nueva práctica profesional en áreas de desempeño emergentes a partir del año 2021. El objetivo de este estudio fue evaluar su implementación y valoración, considerando la opinión de todos los involucrados.
Metodología: Estudio descriptivo transversal mixto con muestreo no probabilístico. Para recoger la opinión de los/as participantes se diseñaron y realizaron encuestas online a alumnos/as del último nivel y a sus supervisores, entrevistas semiestructuradas a tutores de centros de prácticas y grupos de discusión a profesores de grado. Se utilizó estadística descriptiva para los resultados cuantitativos y análisis temático para las cuestiones cualitativas.
Resultados: Se obtuvo la opinión de 27 estudiantes, 8 supervisores, 10 tutores y 13 profesores de pregrado. En cuanto a la implementación, tanto la estructura como los centros y su modalidad de práctica fueron adecuados. La valoración fue alta por parte de los implicados, destacando el desarrollo y gestión de competencias genéricas entre los/as alumnos/as, y su contribución a ampliar el campo laboral, así como el papel del nutricionista en áreas emergentes. Como aspecto a mejorar, es necesario detallar más las actividades a realizar en cada centro.
Conclusiones: La implementación de esta práctica fue exitosa, con un alto nivel de valoración. Su inclusión en el plan de estudios responde adecuadamente al perfil del egresado y a los objetivos de desarrollo de la unidad, respondiendo a necesidades previamente detectadas en el plan de estudios y en el entorno, contribuyendo así a la inserción laboral de los/as egresados/as y a la diversificación del campo actual de la disciplina.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Nutritional diseases. Deficiency diseases
Prevalence and mortality risk of low skeletal muscle mass in critically ill patients: an updated systematic review and meta-analysis
Hui Yang, Xi-Xi Wan, Hui Ma
et al.
BackgroundPatients with critical illness often develop low skeletal muscle mass (LSMM) for multiple reasons. Numerous studies have explored the association between LSMM and mortality. The prevalence of LSMM and its association with mortality are unclear. This systematic review and meta-analysis was performed to examine the prevalence and mortality risk of LSMM among critically ill patients.MethodsThree internet databases (Embase, PubMed, and Web of Science) were searched by two independent investigators to identify relevant studies. A random-effects model was used to pool the prevalence of LSMM and its association with mortality. The GRADE assessment tool was used to assess the overall quality of evidence.ResultsIn total, 1,582 records were initially identified in our search, and 38 studies involving 6,891 patients were included in the final quantitative analysis. The pooled prevalence of LSMM was 51.0% [95% confidence interval (CI), 44.5–57.5%]. The subgroup analysis showed that the prevalence of LSMM in patients with and without mechanical ventilation was 53.4% (95% CI, 43.2–63.6%) and 48.9% (95% CI, 39.7–58.1%), respectively (P-value for difference = 0.44). The pooled results showed that critically ill patients with LSMM had a higher risk of mortality than those without LSMM, with a pooled odds ratio of 2.35 (95% CI, 1.91–2.89). The subgroup analysis based on the muscle mass assessment tool showed that critically ill patients with LSMM had a higher risk of mortality than those with normal skeletal muscle mass regardless of the different assessment tools used. In addition, the association between LSMM and mortality was statistically significant, independent of the different types of mortality.ConclusionOur study revealed that critically ill patients had a high prevalence of LSMM and that critically ill patients with LSMM had a higher risk of mortality than those without LSMM. However, large-scale and high-quality prospective cohort studies, especially those based on muscle ultrasound, are required to validate these findings.Systematic review registrationhttp://www.crd.york.ac.uk/PROSPERO/, identifier: CRD42022379200.
Nutrition. Foods and food supply
Machine Learning for Economics Research: When What and How?
Ajit Desai
This article provides a curated review of selected papers published in prominent economics journals that use machine learning (ML) tools for research and policy analysis. The review focuses on three key questions: (1) when ML is used in economics, (2) what ML models are commonly preferred, and (3) how they are used for economic applications. The review highlights that ML is particularly used to process nontraditional and unstructured data, capture strong nonlinearity, and improve prediction accuracy. Deep learning models are suitable for nontraditional data, whereas ensemble learning models are preferred for traditional datasets. While traditional econometric models may suffice for analyzing low-complexity data, the increasing complexity of economic data due to rapid digitalization and the growing literature suggests that ML is becoming an essential addition to the econometrician's toolbox.
Journal of Urban Economics
K. Desmet, Romain Wacziarg
Regional Disparities and Economic Growth in Ukraine
Khrystyna Huk, Ayaz Zeynalov
This research is devoted to assessing regional economic disparities in Ukraine, where regional economic inequality is a crucial issue the country faces in its medium and long-term development, recently, even in the short term. We analyze the determinants of regional economic growth, mainly industrial and agricultural productions, population, human capital, fertility, migration, and regional government expenditures. Using panel data estimations from 2004 to 2020 for 27 regions of Ukraine, our results show that the gaps between regions in Ukraine have widened last two decades. Natural resource distribution, agricultural and industrial productions, government spending, and migration can explain the disparities. We show that regional government spending is highly concentrated in Kyiv, and the potential of the other regions, especially the Western ones, needs to be used sufficiently. Moreover, despite its historical and economic opportunity, the East region performed little development during the last two decades. The inefficient and inconsistent regional policies played a crucial role in these disparities.
Economic evaluation of stochastic home energy management systems in a realistic rolling horizon setting
Julian Lemos-Vinasco, Amos Schledorn, S. Ali Pourmousavi
et al.
Home energy management systems (HEMSs) are expected to become a crucial part of future smart grids. However, there is a limited number of studies that comprehensively assess the potential economic benefits of HEMS for consumers under real market conditions and which take account of consumers' capabilities. In this study, a new optimization-based HEMS controller is presented to operate a photovoltaic and battery system. The HEMS controller considers the consumers' electrical load uncertainty by integrating multivariate probabilistic forecasting methods and a stochastic optimization in a rolling horizon. As a case study, a comprehensive simulation study is designed to emulate the operation of a real HEMS using real data from nine Danish homes over different seasons under real-time retail prices. The optimization-based control strategies are compared with a default (naive) control strategy that encourages self consumption. Simulation results show that seasonality in the consumers' load and electricity prices have a significant impact on the performance of the control strategies. A combination of optimization-based and naive control strategy presents the best overall results.
Knowledge Management in Management of Social and Economic Development of Municipalities: Highlights
Maria A. Shishanina, Anatoly A. Sidorov
The paper discusses the process of social and economic development of municipalities. A conclusion is made that developing an adequate model of social and economic development using conventional approaches presents a considerable challenge. It is proposed to use semantic modeling to represent the social and economic development of municipalities, and cognitive mapping to identify the set of connections that occur among indicators and that have a direct impact on social and economic development.