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DOAJ Open Access 2025
Durian albedo and eggshell-based smart edible film with infused butterfly pea flower extract as active agent

Ignasius Radix Astadi Praptono Jati, Adrianus Rulianto Utomo, Erni Setijawaty et al.

Abstract The aims of this research are to investigate the effects of different concentrations of butterfly pea flower extract infusion as an active agent on the properties of durian fruit albedo and eggshell-based smart edible films. The butterfly pea flower was extracted using water with the ratios of 1:50 (T1), 1:100 (T2), 1:150 (T3), 1:200 (T4), 1:250 (T5), and 1:300 (T6) (w/v). The film was formulated using durian albedo, eggshell, sorbitol, and cornstarch, which was mixed with butterfly pea flower extract and mold using the casting method. The analysis performed included anthocyanin and phenolic content, antioxidant activity, tensile strength, elongation, water vapor transmission rate, scanning electron microscopy, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy, and smart indicator examination using fresh milk model system. Different concentrations of butterfly pea extract affect the physicochemical properties of smart edible film. The increase in extract concentration increased anthocyanin and phenolic contents, which align with the increase in antioxidant activity. Meanwhile, the presence of bioactive compounds in the formulation reduced the tensile strength of the film and increased its elongation, as confirmed by SEM and FTIR results. Smart edible film can act as an indicator in the fresh milk model by changing color according to the change in pH due to milk spoilage.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
arXiv Open Access 2025
Hua-Chen New Theory of Economic Optimization

Bin Chen, Yingchao Xie, Ting Yang et al.

Between 1957-1985, Chinese mathematician Loo-Keng Hua pioneered economic optimization theory through three key contributions: establishing economic stability's fundamental theorem, proving the uniqueness of equilibrium solutions in economic systems, and developing a consumption-integrated model 50 days before his death. Since 1988, Mu-Fa Chen has been working on Hua's theory. He introduced stochastics, namely Markov chains, to economic optimization theory. He updated and developed Hua's model and came up with a new model (Chen's model) which has become the starting point of a new economic optimization theory. Chen's theory can be applied to economic stability test, bankruptcy prediction, product ranking and classification, economic prediction and adjustment, economic structure optimization. Chen's theory can also provide efficient algorithms that are programmable and intelligent. {Stochastics} is the cornerstone of Chen's theory. There is no overlap between Chen's theory, and the existing mathematical economy theory and the economics developments that were awarded Nobel Prizes in Economics between 1969 and 2024. The distinguished features of Chen's theory from the existing theories are quantitative, calculable, predictable, optimizable, programmable and can be intelligent. This survey provides a theoretical overview of the newly published monograph \cite{5rw24}. Specifically, the invariant of the economic structure matrix, also known as the Chen's invariant, was first published in this survey.

en econ.TH, math.PR
arXiv Open Access 2025
Critical Mathematical Economics and Progressive Data Science

Johannes Buchner

The aim of this article is to present elements and discuss the potential of a research program at the intersection between mathematics and heterodox economics, which we call Criticial Mathematical Economics (CME). We propose to focus on the mathematical and model-theoretic foundations of controversies in economic policy, and aim at providing an entrance to the literature as an invitation to mathematicians that are potentially interested in such a project. From our point of view, mathematics has been partly misused in mainstream economics to justify `unregulated markets'. We identify two key parts of CME, which leads to a natural structure of this article: The first part focusses on an analysis and critique of mathematical models used in mainstream economics, like e.g. the Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (DSGE) in Macroeconomics and the so-called ``Sonnenschein-Mantel-Debreu''-Theorems. The aim of the second part is to improve and extend heterodox models using ingredients from modern mathematics and computer science, a method with strong relation to Complexity Economics. We exemplify this idea by describing how methods from Non-Linear Dynamics have been used in Post-Keynesian Macroeconomics', and also discuss (Pseudo-) Goodwin cycles and possible Micro- and Mesofoundations. Finally, we outline in which areas a collaboration between mathematicians and heterodox economists could be most promising, and discuss both existing projects in such a direction as well as areas where new models for policy advice are most needed. In an outlook, we discuss the role of (ecological) data, and the need for what we call Progressive Data Science.

en econ.GN, cs.CY
arXiv Open Access 2025
The Economics of p(doom): Scenarios of Existential Risk and Economic Growth in the Age of Transformative AI

Jakub Growiec, Klaus Prettner

Recent advances in artificial intelligence (AI) have led to a diverse set of predictions about its long-term impact on humanity. A central focus is the potential emergence of transformative AI (TAI), eventually capable of outperforming humans in all economically valuable tasks and fully automating labor. Discussed scenarios range from human extinction after a misaligned TAI takes over ("AI doom") to unprecedented economic growth and abundance ("post-scarcity"). However, the probabilities and implications of these scenarios remain highly uncertain. Here, we organize the various scenarios and evaluate their associated existential risks and economic outcomes in terms of aggregate welfare. Our analysis shows that even low-probability catastrophic outcomes justify large investments in AI safety and alignment research. We find that the optimizing representative individual would rationally allocate substantial resources to mitigate extinction risk; in some cases, she would prefer not to develop TAI at all. This result highlights that current global efforts in AI safety and alignment research are vastly insufficient relative to the scale and urgency of existential risks posed by TAI. Our findings therefore underscore the need for stronger safeguards to balance the potential economic benefits of TAI with the prevention of irreversible harm. Addressing these risks is crucial for steering technological progress toward sustainable human prosperity.

en econ.GN, cs.AI
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Inulin characterization from tuber of Musa balbisiana Colla as an alternative source of prebiotics

In-In Hanidah, Siti Nurhasanah, Sumanti Debby Moody et al.

Inulin is a polysaccharide composed of 2-60 fructose monomers linked by β-(2,1) glycosidic bonds, with a glucose end group. The tuber of Musa balbisiana Colla (batu banana) is a part of the M. balbisiana Colla plant that contains dietary fiber 6,20%. The polysaccharide content allowed the batu banana tubers  to contain inulin. The aim of this study was to determine the characteristics of inulin in batu banana tubers. The research method used was the experimental method, which was analyzed descriptively with two replicates at the Universitas Padjadjaran Laboratory of Jatinangor – Sumedang from May until October 2023. The parameters were inulin content, degree of polymerization (DP), reducing sugar content, moisture content, pH, solubility, water activity (aw), color L*, a*, and  b*, viscosity, and sensory analysis using a descriptive method. The results showed that B. tuber inulin had an inulin content of 3,58%, DP of 2,8, reducing sugar content of 2,03%,  moisture content of 8,47%, pH of 6,31, solubility of 21,70% (90°C), aw of 0,432, L* of 66,76, a* of 8,28, b* of 15,90, and viscosity of 2068 mPas (90°C). In conclusion, sensory analysis showed that batu banana tuber inulin has a darker color, bitter taste, stronger flavor, and softer texture than the commercial inulin.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Effect of osmanthus hydrolat on the aroma quality and volatile components of osmanthus black tea

Xin Meng, Fang Wang, Chao-Hong Fu et al.

Osmanthus fragrans is an evergreen shrub with a pleasant fragrance and a wide range of applications in many fields. The condensed hydrolat obtained during the drying process of its fresh flowers was collected in a low-temperature vacuum environment and its sensory evaluation and volatile components were studied. The main aroma compounds in Osmanthus fragrans were dihydro-β-ionone, nonanal, β-cyclocitral, β-ionone, benzaldehyde, α-ionone, and 6-methyl-5-hepten-2-one, whose contents were used as the main evaluation criteria, and the hydrolats obtained under different scenting and drying times were compared. This process can effectively collect the aroma components in Osmanthus fragrans and the optimal drying conditions were 50 °C for 5 h. The hydrolat was used to provide the scent of osmanthus black tea, which had a fresher and mellower taste, while the fragrance of osmanthus was abundant. These results show that osmanthus hydrolat can be used to provide the scent of floral black tea. Chemical compounds studied in this article: (−)-Catechin (PubChem CID: 1203); (−)-epigallocatechin gallate (PubChem CID: 65064); (−)-epicatechin gallate (PubChem CID: 367141); (−)-epigallocatechin (PubChem CID: 72277); (−)-epicatechin (PubChem CID: 72276); (−)-gallocatechin gallate (PubChem CID: 199472); (−)-catechin gallate (PubChem CID: 6419835); (−)-gallocatechin (PubChem CID: 9882981).

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
DOAJ Open Access 2024
In vivo oral toxicity and antioxidant capacity of Nothofagus antarctica (G.Forst.) oerst (ñire) leaves

Ayelén A. Hugo, María Delos Ángeles Serradell, Pablo L. Peri et al.

Nothofagus antarctica (NA) is a native tree of Patagonia. Since ancient times, NA leaves were used in infusions for medical and food purposes, but there are no deep insights on its toxicity. The aim of this work was to assess the safety and antioxidant activity of NA leaves infusion. Mice were used to determine acute and subacute oral toxicity. Total polyphenols, flavonoids and the antioxidant activity of the infusion were assessed, as well as the antioxidant activity in biological samples. Toxicity tests revealed no death or signs of toxicity. No significant differences in biochemical parameters/histological structure were registered. NA infusion exhibited a high content of polyphenols and flavonoids, contributing to its remarkably antioxidant activity. The periodic administration of NA infusion could increase the antioxidant capacity in mice at intestinal level. The results support the safe of consuming NA leaves infusion and suggest their contribution for modulating the intestinal oxidative stress.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Flaxseed Characteristics and Using Cake Mucilage in Pan Bread

Muhammad, E. Elsorady, Elsayed, A.A. Hendawy, Sahar, S. El-Gohery

The main objective of this study was to evaluate the characteristics of flaxseed and to investigate the effects of using different levels of flaxseed cake mucilage (FCM) as a substitute for bread improver (0.5%, 1.0%, and 1.5%) or as a replacement for oil (33.33%, 66.66%, and 100%) on the sensory attributes, physical characteristics, color, texture profile, and freshness of pan bread. The results indicated that the Sakha 5 flaxseed variety had an oil content of approximately 33.37%, with linolenic acid as the primary fatty acid, comprising about 57.47% of the total. Flaxseed cake mucilage (FCM), extracted from the by-product of flaxseed oil production, is composed of natural and acidic sugars, and it exhibits excellent water-binding and rheological properties. Sensory evaluation data revealed that the complete replacement of bread improver with FCM at the 1.0% level enhanced the color, texture, taste, general appearance, and overall acceptability of the pan bread, compared to samples using FCM at 0.5% and 1.5% levels. Additionally, partial replacement of oil with FCM at the 66.66% level improved crumb color and texture without a significant difference in overall acceptability when compared to the control pan bread. The physical characteristics of the bread showed a reduction in volume and specific volume in samples containing FCM compared to the control. However, the inclusion of FCM in pan bread formulation delayed staling and improved freshness due to its ability to retain moisture in the crumb. In conclusion, FCM shows potential as a functional ingredient in pan bread production. Further studies are recommended to explore additional applications of FCM in various baked products.

Food processing and manufacture, Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Colorimetric detection of the potent carcinogen aflatoxin B1 based on the aggregation of L-lysine-functionalized gold nanoparticles in the presence of copper ions

Kaori Sánchez-Carrillo, David Quintanar-Guerrero, Miguel José-Yacamán et al.

L-lysine functionalized gold nanoparticles (AuNPs-Lys) have been widely used for the detection of worldwide interest analytes. In this work, a colorimetric assay for the detection of the carcinogen aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) based on the aggregation of AuNPs-Lys in the presence of copper ions was developed. For this purpose, AuNPs were synthesized in citrate aqueous solution, functionalized, and further characterized by UV–Vis, fluorescence, Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), nanoparticle tracking analysis (NTA), dynamic light scattering (DLS), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). In general, AuNPS-Lys (~2.73 × 1011 particles) offered a clear colorimetric response in the presence of AFB1 and Cu2+ ions showing linearity in the range of 6.25 to 200 ng AFB1/mL, with a detection limit of 4.18 ng AFB1/mL via photometric inspection. Moreover, the performance of the proposed methodology was tested using the 991.31 AOAC official procedure based on monoclonal antibodies in maize samples artificially contaminated with AFB1. There was a good agreement between the measured AFB1 concentrations in both assays, the average recoveries for the colorimetric and immunoaffinity assays were between 91.2–98.4% and 96.0–99.2%, respectively. These results indicated that the colorimetric assay could be used as a rapid, eco-friendly, and cost-effective platform for the quantification of AFB1 in maize-based products.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Mushroom production on digestate: Mineral composition of cultivation compost, mushrooms, spent mushroom compost and spent casing

Agnieszka Jasinska, Ketil Stoknes, Przemyslaw Niedzielski et al.

Produced in the process of anaerobic digestion, the effluent called digestate is rich in nutrients and can be used as a growing media for mushrooms. However, it can also be rich in non-essential and trace elements, heavy metals, various organic pollutants, pharmaceuticals, and other unwanted compounds with potential negative effects. Therefore, two button mushroom species, Agaricus bisporus (brown cultivar) and Agaricus subrufescens, were cultivated on digestate based substrate. The mineral composition of the experimental mushroom compost (EMC), mushrooms (M), spent mushroom compost (SMC) and spent casing (SC) was evaluated by means of ICP OES. Mineral distribution and quantity were substrate dependent, digestate origin was determined for most of investigated elements, excluding Ca, Mo, Pb, Ce and Nd, where the source was straw. However, content of elements with high mobility such as Cd, Cu, Pb and Zn for EMC was low. Short composting method for mushroom compost preparation used in this study could be suitable method for reducing available Cd, Cr, Ni, Pb, Zn and total As. For the casing material, bark was richer in major essential elements (MEE's) and essential trace elements (ETE's), besides Ca, where peat indicated higher content (1490 mg kg-1). From the trace elements with detrimental health effects (TEWDHE) group, bark was richer in Ba and Pb, but peat contained significant content of As (3.92 mg kg-1). The results clearly indicated both the studied mushrooms are valuable source of K, Na and Se, while A. subrufescens provided higher amounts of Cu and Zn. No threat for human consumption for Ni, Pb, As, and Cd, their content is under the limits and decreases with each subsequent mushroom yield. SMC and SC were nutrient rich especially for Fe, Mg, Mn, Si and Zn, giving them added value as biobased product for boosting vegetable crop yield. However, Cr and Ni, ETS's for plants in lower amounts, were elevated in SMC/SC, therefore the mineral composition should be monitored. Low concentration of hazardous elements in the spent substrates allows for subsequent use.

Agriculture (General), Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Nutritional status, literacy, and risk factors of malnutrition in the population over 50 years of age - findings from the SHARE project

Tereza Vágnerová, Olga Dvořáčková, Eva Topinková

Summary: Background &amp; Aims: The transition from middle age to old age (from adults aged 50–55 years to older seniors aged 75–80 years) represents a critical period in terms of changes in body composition, i.e., increase in body fat percentage and decrease in fat-free body mass, which occur even at long-term stable weight. These changes are caused, among other things, by a gradual reduction in physical activity and deterioration in dietary habits. For many health conditions, like weight status, nutritional assessment and nutritional literacy can provide valuable information that can guide treatment efforts and maintenance of healthy eating habits. We therefore attempted to map this issue using data from the Survey of Health, Ageing and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) project. Methods: The basis for this study was data from the 8th wave of the SHARE project. The analysis included the results of the primary questionnaires CAPI (Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing) and the National Dropoff Questionnaire developed exclusively for the Czech Republic with a special module D “Nutrition” summarizing questions on eating habits, nutrition care and nutritional literacy. Results: A total of 2316 respondents were included in the study, 37.9% of whom were female and 62.1% male, with a mean age of 71.7±7.6 years. The prevalence of undernutrition, overweight and obesity in the study population was 9.2%, 42.8% and 32.2%, respectively. The presence of depression, anxiety, polypharmacy, multimorbidity and pain were associated with poor nutritional status (Pearson correlation coefficient, P < 0.001 for all five factors). The lifestyle factors of dietary habits and regular physical activity of the subjects did not meet current recommendations. Awareness of the existence and availability of dietitians and the possibilities of nutritional therapy and its reimbursement from public health insurance proved to be low. Conclusion: The results show a high prevalence of overweight, obesity and malnutrition in the Czech population over 50 years of age, low nutritional literacy, and inadequate coverage of nutritional care.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
DOAJ Open Access 2024
Exploratory dietary patterns, the global diet quality score, and their associated socio-demographic factors among young adults in Rwanda: a cross-sectional study using a food list-validated, semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire

Phenias Nsabimana, Befikadu Tariku Gutema, Kate Langley et al.

Abstract Background Economic growth in Rwanda is associated with significant changes in food systems, access to health and other services, lifestyle, and nutritional transitions. Nevertheless, our knowledge of dietary patterns in Rwanda remains limited. The present study aimed to identify the dietary habits of young adult population in Rwanda and to assess associated factors. Methods A developed and validated semi-quantitative food frequency questionnaire covering a one-year period was used to collect data on food intake of 1,218 participants (18–35 years old) from end of January to April 2023 in a cross-sectional study. Dietary habits were assessed using two indicators: the Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) and dietary patterns. The latest was developed using exploratory factor analysis. Results Rwandan adults had a mean GDQS of 24.1; 64.4% had high GDQS, especially urban, and educated respondents. The Southern province led at 77.4%. Three dietary patterns were identified: “Modern” (high in processed foods and drinks), “Traditional” (rich in cereals, roots, and plant-based proteins), and “low variety” (low in diverse foods but high in sugar and salt). Dietary patterns significantly varied by residency, province, sex, age, social category, asset, and education level. Conclusion This study identified distinct dietary patterns among adult population of Rwanda, suggesting a nutritional transition associated with urbanization. The findings highlight the need for further research into the relationships between diet, obesity, and metabolic syndrome in Rwandan population.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Nutritional diseases. Deficiency diseases
arXiv Open Access 2024
Cryptoeconomics and Tokenomics as Economics: A Survey with Opinions

Kensuke Ito

This paper surveys products and studies on cryptoeconomics and tokenomics from an economic perspective, as these terms are still (i) ill-defined and (ii) disconnected from economic disciplines. We first suggest that they can be novel when integrated; we then conduct a literature review and case study following consensus-building for decentralization and token value for autonomy. Integration requires simultaneous consideration of strategic behavior, spamming, Sybil attacks, free-riding, marginal cost, marginal utility and stabilizers. This survey is the first systematization of knowledge on cryptoeconomics and tokenomics, aiming to bridge the contexts of economics and blockchain.

en cs.GT, econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2024
Large Effects of Small Cues: Priming Selfish Economic Decisions

Avichai Snir, Dudi Levy, Dian Wang et al.

Many experimental studies report that economics students tend to act more selfishly than students of other disciplines, a finding that received widespread public and professional attention. Two main explanations that the existing literature offers for the differences found in the behavior between economists and noneconomists are the selection effect, and the indoctrination effect. We offer an alternative, novel explanation. We argue that these differences can be explained by differences in the interpretation of the context. We test this hypothesis by conducting two social dilemma experiments in the US and Israel with participants from both economics and non-economics majors. In the experiments, participants face a tradeoff between profit maximization, that is the market norm and workers welfare, that is the social norm. We use priming to manipulate the cues that the participants receive before they make their decision. We find that when participants receive cues signaling that the decision has an economic context, both economics and non-economics students tend to maximize profits. When the participants receive cues emphasizing social norms, on the other hand, both economics and non-economics students are less likely to maximize profits. We conclude that some of the differences found between the decisions of economics and non-economics students can be explained by contextual cues.

arXiv Open Access 2024
Reinterpreting economic complexity in multiple dimensions

Önder Nomaler, Bart Verspagen

We build on the interpretation of the Economic Complexity method as Correspondence Analysis (CA), and propose that the Canonical form of CA (CCA), which originated in the ecology literature, can be used to calculate multi-dimensional economic complexity. The traditional (CA) way of calculating economic complexity includes no "external" information such as countries' development characteristics to facilitate interpretation of "complexity". This has led to a wide range of fairly ad hoc interpretations of economic complexity on the basis of ex-post correlation to a long list of other variables. By the ex-ante inclusion of a number of country variables in the construction of the complexity indicators, CCA enables better interpretation, also in the case of multi-dimensional indicators. The analysis is further facilitated by another element of the ecologists' toolbox, the so-called biplots, which are CCA-based graph embeddings that represent a lower-dimensional product-space in which products and countries are positioned together, in mutual correspondence to each other. We show that in this way, CCA provides a richer account of development in many of its aspects, especially economic growth.

en econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2024
Soviet Mathematics and Economic Theory in the Past Century: An Historical Reappraisal

Ivan Boldyrev

What are the effects of authoritarian regimes on scholarly research in economics? And how might economic theory survive ideological pressures? The article addresses these questions by focusing on the mathematization of economics over the past century and drawing on the history of Soviet science. Mathematics in the USSR remained internationally competitive and generated many ideas that were taken up and played important roles in economic theory. These same ideas, however, were disregarded or adopted only in piecemeal fashion by Soviet economists, despite the efforts of influential scholars to change the economic research agenda. The article draws this contrast into sharper focus by exploring the work of Soviet mathematicians in optimization, game theory, and probability theory that was used in Western economics. While the intellectual exchange across the Iron Curtain did help advance the formal modeling apparatus, economics could only thrive in an intellectually open environment absent under the Soviet rule.

en math.HO, econ.TH
DOAJ Open Access 2023
Unraveling the relationship between key aroma components and sensory properties of fragrant peanut oils based on flavoromics and machine learning

Binfang Hu, Chunhua Zhang, Baijun Chu et al.

Key aroma components of 33 fragrant peanut oils with different aroma types were screened by combined using flavoromics and machine learning. A total of 108 volatile compounds were identified and 100 kinds of them were accurately quantified, and 38 compounds out of them were with odorant activity value ≥1. The 33 peanut oils presented varied intensity of ‘fresh peanuts’, ‘roasted nut’, ‘burnt’, ‘over-burnt’, ‘sweet’, ‘peanut butter-like’, ‘puffed food’ and ‘exotic flavor’, and could be classified into four aroma types, namely raw, light, thick and salty. Partial least squares regression analysis, random forest and classification regression tree revealed that 2-acetyl pyrazine had a negative effect on ‘fresh peanuts’ and could distinguish raw flavor samples well; 2-methylbutanal and 4-vinylguaiacol were key compounds of ‘roasted nut’ and had significant differences (P < 0.0001) in thick and raw flavor samples; furfural contributed to the ‘puffed food’ as well as key compound of salty flavor.

Nutrition. Foods and food supply, Food processing and manufacture
DOAJ Open Access 2023
STUDY OF VITAMIN D3-FORTIFIED GOAT KEFIR ON PLASMA FIBRINOGEN LEVELS OF DIABETIC RATTUS NORVEGICUS RATS

Tania Masha, Astika Widy Utomo, Martha Ardiaria et al.

ABSTRACT Background: Diabetes mellitus is often associated with the occurrence of complications. Haemostatic factors, especially hyperfibrinogenaemia, is a common cause of the complication. Goat kefir and vitamin D3 may act as an antioxidant and anti-inflammation agent which can repair pancreatic beta cells. Objectives: This study aimed to analyse the effect of vitamin D3-fortified goat milk and plasma fibrinogen levels in diabetic rats. Materials and Methods: This study was an experimental study with pre-post only group design. The samples were 21 male rats divided into four groups; negative control (K-), positive control (K +), treated with unfortified goat kefir (P1), and treated with vitamin D3-fortified goat kefir (P2). The 35-day intervention was conducted, the goat kefir dose was 2 ml/200 g BW/day and the vitamin D dose 600 IU. Fasting blood glucose and plasma fibrinogen were assessed pre- and post-intervention. Blood glucose level was evaluated by GOD-PAP method, while plasma fibrinogen was assessed by Enzyme-Linked Immunosorbent Assay (ELISA) method. The data were analysed with paired t-test and One-Way ANOVA. Results: There were not significant difference levels of fibrinogen between groups. The intervention groups both showed an insignificant decrease of plasma fibrinogen. The plasma fibrinogen of group treated with vitamin D3-fortified goat kefir went down to 13.47 mg/dl from 16.49 mg/dl (p = 0.49). Meanwhile, the group treated with unfortified goat kefir showed a decrease from 26.81 mg/dl to 24.94 mg/dl (p=0.83). On the other hand, there was a significant decrease in fasting blood glucose in the group treated with vitamin D3-fortified goat kefir from 181.75 mg/dl to 116.25 mg/dl (p=0.03). Conclusion Our results demonstrate that administration of vitamin D3-fortified goat kefir can decrease fasting blood glucose but not in plasma fibrinogen.  Keywords : Diabetes Mellitus; Fastin blood glucose; Fibrinogen; Goat kefir; Vitamin D3 Fortification

Nutrition. Foods and food supply
arXiv Open Access 2023
Economics for the Global Economic Order: The Tragedy of Epic Fail Equilibria

Shiro Armstrong, Danny Quah

This paper casts within a unified economic framework some key challenges for the global economic order: de-globalization; the rising impracticability of global cooperation; and the increasingly confrontational nature of Great Power competition. In these, economics has been weaponised in the service of national interest. This need be no bad thing. History provides examples where greater openness and freer trade emerge from nations seeking only to advance their own self-interests. But the cases described in the paper provide mixed signals. We find that some developments do draw on a growing zero-sum perception to economic and political engagement. That zero-sum explanation alone, however, is crucially inadequate. Self-serving nations, even when believing the world zero-sum, have under certain circumstances produced outcomes that have benefited all. In other circumstances, perfectly-predicted losses have instead resulted on all sides. Such lose-lose outcomes -- epic fail equilibria -- generalize the Prisoner's Dilemma game and are strictly worse than zero-sum. In our analysis, Third Nations -- those not frontline in Great Power rivalry -- can serve an essential role in averting epic fail outcomes. The policy implication is that Third Nations need to provide platforms that will gently and unobtrusively nudge Great Powers away from epic-fail equilibria and towards inadvertent cooperation.

en econ.GN
arXiv Open Access 2023
Does Machine Learning Amplify Pricing Errors in the Housing Market? -- The Economics of Machine Learning Feedback Loops

Nikhil Malik, Emaad Manzoor

Machine learning algorithms are increasingly employed to price or value homes for sale, properties for rent, rides for hire, and various other goods and services. Machine learning-based prices are typically generated by complex algorithms trained on historical sales data. However, displaying these prices to consumers anchors the realized sales prices, which will in turn become training samples for future iterations of the algorithms. The economic implications of this machine learning "feedback loop" - an indirect human-algorithm interaction - remain relatively unexplored. In this work, we develop an analytical model of machine learning feedback loops in the context of the housing market. We show that feedback loops lead machine learning algorithms to become overconfident in their own accuracy (by underestimating its error), and leads home sellers to over-rely on possibly erroneous algorithmic prices. As a consequence at the feedback loop equilibrium, sale prices can become entirely erratic (relative to true consumer preferences in absence of ML price interference). We then identify conditions (choice of ML models, seller characteristics and market characteristics) where the economic payoffs for home sellers at the feedback loop equilibrium is worse off than no machine learning. We also empirically validate primitive building blocks of our analytical model using housing market data from Zillow. We conclude by prescribing algorithmic corrective strategies to mitigate the effects of machine learning feedback loops, discuss the incentives for platforms to adopt these strategies, and discuss the role of policymakers in regulating the same.

en econ.TH, cs.CY

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