We present a comprehensive dataset capturing patterns of human mobility across the United States from January 2019 to January 2023, based on anonymized mobile device data. Aggregated weekly, the dataset reports visits, travel distances, and time spent at public locations organized by economic sector for approximately 12 million Points of Interest (POIs). This resource enables the study of how mobility and economic activity changed over time, particularly during major events such as the COVID-19 pandemic. By disaggregating patterns across different types of businesses, it provides valuable insights for researchers in economics, urban studies, and public health. To protect privacy, all data have been aggregated and anonymized. This dataset offers an opportunity to explore the dynamics of human behavior across sectors over an extended time period, supporting studies of mobility, resilience, and recovery.
Would artificial intelligence (AI) cut interest rates or adopt conservative monetary policy? Would it deregulate or opt for a more controlled economy? As AI use by economic policymakers, academics, and market participants grows exponentially, it is becoming critical to understand AI preferences over economic policy. However, these preferences are not yet systematically evaluated and remain a black box. This paper makes a conjoint experiment on leading large language models (LLMs) from OpenAI, Anthropic, and Google, asking them to evaluate economic policy under multi-factor constraints. The results are remarkably consistent across models: most LLMs exhibit a strong preference for high growth, low unemployment, and low inequality over traditional macroeconomic concerns such as low inflation and low public debt. Scenario-specific experiments show that LLMs are sensitive to context but still display strong preferences for low unemployment and low inequality even in monetary-policy settings. Numerical sensitivity tests reveal intuitive responses to quantitative changes but also uncover non-linear patterns such as loss aversion.
Automated program repair (APR) has recently shifted toward large language models and agent-based systems, yet most systems rely on local snapshot context, overlooking repository history. Prior work shows that repository history helps repair single-line bugs, since the last commit touching the buggy line is often the bug-introducing one. In this paper, we investigate whether repository history can also improve agentic APR systems at scale, especially for complex multi-hunk bugs. We present HAFixAgent, a History-Aware Bug-Fixing Agent that injects blame-derived repository heuristics into its repair loop. A preliminary study on 854 Defects4J (Java) and 501 BugsInPy (Python) bugs motivates our design, showing that bug-relevant history is widely available across both benchmarks. Using the same LLM (DeepSeek-V3.2-Exp) for all experiments, including replicated baselines, we show: (1) Effectiveness: HAFixAgent outperforms RepairAgent (+56.6\%) and BIRCH-feedback (+47.1\%) on Defects4J. Historical context further improves repair by +4.4\% on Defects4J and +38.6\% on BugsInPy, especially on single-file multi-hunk (SFMH) bugs. (2) Robustness: under noisy fault localization (+1/+3/+5 line shifts), history provides increasing resilience, maintaining 40 to 56\% success on SFMH bugs where the non-history baseline collapses to 0\%. (3) Efficiency: history does not significantly increase agent steps or token costs on either benchmark.
In 2025, intensified Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) raids in Oxnard, California, disrupted the state's \$49 billion agricultural industry, a critical supplier of 75% of U.S. fruits and nuts and one-third of its vegetables. This paper quantifies the economic consequences of these raids on labor markets, crop production, and food prices using econometric modeling. We estimate a 20-40% reduction in the agricultural workforce, leading to \$3-7 billion in crop losses and a 5-12% increase in produce prices. The analysis draws on USDA Economic Research Service data and recent ICE detention figures, which show arrests in Southern California rising from 699 in May to nearly 2,000 in June 2025. The raids disproportionately affect labor-intensive crops like strawberries, exacerbating supply chain disruptions. Policy recommendations include expanding the H-2A visa program and legalizing undocumented workers to stabilize the sector. This study contributes to agricultural economics by providing a data-driven assessment of immigration enforcement's economic toll.
Abstract This introduction offers a preliminary discussion of the place of εὐδαιμονία in ancient Greek philosophy and further discusses the author’s choice to translate this Greek word with the English term ‘prospering.’ The introduction concludes with a chapter-by-chapter summary of the argument to follow.
The co-evolution of economic and ecological activities represents one of the fundamental challenges in the realm of sustainable development. This study on the word trends in mainstream newspapers from the UK and China reveals that both early-industrialised countries and latecomers follow three modes of economic and ecological co-evolution. First, both economic and ecological words demonstrate an S-shaped growth trajectory, and the mode underscores the importance of information propagation, whilst also highlighting the crucial role of self-organisation in the accept society. Second, the co-occurrence of these two type words exhibits a Z-shaped relationship: for two-thirds of the observed period, they display synergistic interactions, while the remaining time shows trade-offs. Lastly, the words related to ecological degradation follow M-shaped trajectories in parallel with economic growth, suggesting periodic disruptions and reconstructions in their interrelationships. Our findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the co-evolutionary mechanisms that govern collective behaviours in human society.
Based on supermodularity ordering properties, we show that convex risk measures of credit losses are nondecreasing w.r.t. credit-credit and, in a wrong-way risk setup, credit-market, covariances of elliptically distributed latent factors. These results support the use of such setups for computing credit provisions and economic capital or for conducting stress test exercises and risk management analysis.
Christian Diem, András Borsos, Tobias Reisch
et al.
To estimate the reaction of economies to political interventions or external disturbances, input-output (IO) tables -- constructed by aggregating data into industrial sectors -- are extensively used. However, economic growth, robustness, and resilience crucially depend on the detailed structure of non-aggregated firm-level production networks (FPNs). Due to non-availability of data little is known about how much aggregated sector-based and detailed firm-level-based model-predictions differ. Using a nearly complete nationwide FPN, containing 243,399 Hungarian firms with 1,104,141 supplier-buyer-relations we self-consistently compare production losses on the aggregated industry-level production network (IPN) and the granular FPN. For this we model the propagation of shocks of the same size on both, the IPN and FPN, where the latter captures relevant heterogeneities within industries. In a COVID-19 inspired scenario we model the shock based on detailed firm-level data during the early pandemic. We find that using IPNs instead of FPNs leads to errors up to 37% in the estimation of economic losses, demonstrating a natural limitation of industry-level IO-models in predicting economic outcomes. We ascribe the large discrepancy to the significant heterogeneity of firms within industries: we find that firms within one sector only sell 23.5% to and buy 19.3% from the same industries on average, emphasizing the strong limitations of industrial sectors for representing the firms they include. Similar error-levels are expected when estimating economic growth, CO2 emissions, and the impact of policy interventions with industry-level IO models. Granular data is key for reasonable predictions of dynamical economic systems.
Iram Gleriaa, Sergio Da Silvab, Leon Brenig
et al.
In this study, we analyze the relationship between human population growth and economic dynamics. To do so, we present a modified version of the Verhulst model and the Solow model, which together simulate population dynamics and the role of economic variables in capital accumulation. The model incorporates support and foraging functions, which participate in the dynamic relationship between population growth and the creation and destruction of carrying capacity. The validity of the model is demonstrated using empirical data.
The Jeffreys-Lindley paradox exposes a rift between Bayesian and frequentist hypothesis testing that strikes at the heart of statistical inference. Contrary to what most current literature suggests, the paradox was central to the Bayesian testing methodology developed by Sir Harold Jeffreys in the late 1930s. Jeffreys showed that the evidence against a point-null hypothesis $\mathcal{H}_0$ scales with $\sqrt{n}$ and repeatedly argued that it would therefore be mistaken to set a threshold for rejecting $\mathcal{H}_0$ at a constant multiple of the standard error. Here we summarize Jeffreys's early work on the paradox and clarify his reasons for including the $\sqrt{n}$ term. The prior distribution is seen to play a crucial role; by implicitly correcting for selection, small parameter values are identified as relatively surprising under $\mathcal{H}_1$. We highlight the general nature of the paradox by presenting both a fully frequentist and a fully Bayesian version. We also demonstrate that the paradox does not depend on assigning prior mass to a point hypothesis, as is commonly believed.
This paper presents an approach to measuring business sentiment based on textual data. Business sentiment has been measured by traditional surveys, which are costly and time-consuming to conduct. To address the issues, we take advantage of daily newspaper articles and adopt a self-attention-based model to define a business sentiment index, named S-APIR, where outlier detection models are investigated to properly handle various genres of news articles. Moreover, we propose a simple approach to temporally analyzing how much any given event contributed to the predicted business sentiment index. To demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, an extensive analysis is carried out on 12 years' worth of newspaper articles. The analysis shows that the S-APIR index is strongly and positively correlated with established survey-based index (up to correlation coefficient r=0.937) and that the outlier detection is effective especially for a general newspaper. Also, S-APIR is compared with a variety of economic indices, revealing the properties of S-APIR that it reflects the trend of the macroeconomy as well as the economic outlook and sentiment of economic agents. Moreover, to illustrate how S-APIR could benefit economists and policymakers, several events are analyzed with respect to their impacts on business sentiment over time.
Albert Einstein's practice in physics and his philosophical positions gradually reoriented themselves from more empiricist towards rationalist viewpoints. This change accompanied his turn towards unified field theory and different presentations of himself, eventually leading to his highly programmatic Autobiographical Notes in 1949. Einstein enlisted his own history and professional stature to mold an ideal of a theoretical physicist who represented particular epistemic virtues and moral qualities. These in turn reflected the theoretical ideas of his strongly mathematical unification program and professed Spinozist beliefs.
We propose in this work a kinetic wealth-exchange model of economic growth by introducing saving as a non consumed fraction of production. In this new model, which starts also from microeconomic arguments, it is found that economic transactions between pairs of agents leads the system to a macroscopic behavior where total wealth is not conserved and it is possible to have an economic growth which is assumed as the increasing of total production in time. This last macroeconomic result, that we find both numerically through a Monte Carlo based simulation method and analytically in the framework of a mean field approximation, corresponds to the economic growth scenario described by the well known Solow model developed in the economic neoclassical theory. If additionally to the income related with production due to return on individual capital, it is also included the individual labor income in the model, then the Thomas Piketty's second fundamental law of capitalism is found as a emergent property of the system. We consider that the results obtained in this paper shows how Econophysics can help to understand the connection between macroeconomics and microeconomics.
Sebastian Poledna, Stefan Hochrainer-Stigler, Michael Gregor Miess
et al.
Reliable estimates of indirect economic losses arising from natural disasters are currently out of scientific reach. To address this problem, we propose a novel approach that combines a probabilistic physical damage catastrophe model with a new generation of macroeconomic agent-based models (ABMs). The ABM moves beyond the state of the art by exploiting large data sets from detailed national accounts, census data, and business information, etc., to simulate interactions of millions of agents representing \emph{each} natural person or legal entity in a national economy. The catastrophe model introduces a copula approach to assess flood losses, considering spatial dependencies of the flood hazard. These loss estimates are used in a damage scenario generator that provides input for the ABM, which then estimates indirect economic losses due to the event. For the first time, we are able to link environmental and economic processes in a computer simulation at this level of detail. We show that moderate disasters induce comparably small but positive short- to medium-term, and negative long-term economic impacts. Large-scale events, however, trigger a pronounced negative economic response immediately after the event and in the long term, while exhibiting a temporary short- to medium-term economic boost. We identify winners and losers in different economic sectors, including the fiscal consequences for the government. We quantify the critical disaster size beyond which the resilience of an economy to rebuild reaches its limits. Our results might be relevant for the management of the consequences of systemic events due to climate change and other disasters.
This paper presents a comprehensive literature review on applications of economic and pricing models for resource management in cloud networking. To achieve sustainable profit advantage, cost reduction, and flexibility in provisioning of cloud resources, resource management in cloud networking requires adaptive and robust designs to address many issues, e.g., resource allocation, bandwidth reservation, request allocation, and workload allocation. Economic and pricing models have received a lot of attention as they can lead to desirable performance in terms of social welfare, fairness, truthfulness, profit, user satisfaction, and resource utilization. This paper reviews applications of the economic and pricing models to develop adaptive algorithms and protocols for resource management in cloud networking. Besides, we survey a variety of incentive mechanisms using the pricing strategies in sharing resources in edge computing. In addition, we consider using pricing models in cloud-based Software Defined Wireless Networking (cloud-based SDWN). Finally, we highlight important challenges, open issues and future research directions of applying economic and pricing models to cloud networking
Internet of things (IoT) has been proposed to be a new paradigm of connecting devices and providing services to various applications, e.g., transportation, energy, smart city, and healthcare. In this paper, we focus on an important issue, i.e., economics of IoT, that can have a great impact to the success of IoT applications. In particular, we adopt and present the information economics approach with its applications in IoT. We first review existing economic models developed for IoT services. Then, we outline two important topics of information economics which are pertinent to IoT, i.e., the value of information and information good pricing. Finally, we propose a game theoretic model to study the price competition of IoT sensing services. Some outlooks on future research directions of applying information economics to IoT are discussed.
This paper analyzes some economic and demographic features of Italians living in cities containing a Saint name in their appellation (hagiotoponyms). Demographic data come from the surveys done in the 15th (2011) Italian Census, while the economic wealth of such cities is explored through their recent [2007-2011] aggregated tax income (ATI). This cultural problem is treated from various points of view. First, the exact list of hagiotoponyms is obtained through linguistic and religiosity criteria. Next, it is examined how such cities are distributed in the Italian regions. Demographic and economic perspectives are also offered at the Saint level, i.e. calculating the cumulated values of the number of inhabitants and the ATI, "per Saint", as well as the corresponding relative values taking into account the Saint popularity. On one hand, frequency-size plots and cumulative distribution function plots, and on the other hand, scatter plots and rank-size plots between the various quantities are shown and discussed in order to find the importance of correlations between the variables. It is concluded that rank-rank correlations point to a strong Saint effect, which explains what actually Saint-based toponyms imply in terms of comparing economic and demographic data.