Banafsheh Karimian, Alexis Guichemerre, Soufiane Belharbi
et al.
Breast cancer remains a leading cause of cancer-related mortality worldwide. Longitudinal mammography risk prediction models improve multi-year breast cancer risk prediction based on prior screening exams. However, in real-world clinical practice, longitudinal histories are often incomplete, irregular, or unavailable due to missed screenings, first-time examinations, heterogeneous acquisition schedules, or archival constraints. The absence of prior exams degrades the performance of longitudinal risk models and limits their practical applicability. While substantial longitudinal history is available during training, prior exams are commonly absent at test time. In this paper, we address missing history at inference time and propose a longitudinal risk prediction method that uses mammography history as privileged information during training and distills its prognostic value into a student model that only requires the current exam at inference time. The key idea is a privileged multi-teacher distillation scheme with horizon-specific teachers: each teacher is trained on the full longitudinal history to specialize in one prediction horizon, while the student receives only a reconstructed history derived from the current exam. This allows the student to inherit horizon-dependent longitudinal risk cues without requiring prior screening exams at deployment. Our new Privileged History Distillation (PHD) method is validated on a large longitudinal mammography dataset with multi-year cancer outcomes, CSAW-CC, comparing full-history and no-history baselines to their distilled counterparts. Using time-dependent AUC across horizons, our privileged history distillation method markedly improves the performance of long-horizon prediction over no-history models and is comparable to that of full-history models, while using only the current exam at inference time.
O presente artigo almeja compreender o modo como Schumpeter aplicou a sociologia econômica para compreender o capitalismo, sendo ela um dos instrumentos analíticos que compõem a ciência econômica. Caracterizada como uma análise evolucionária e institucional dos fenômenos econômicos, a sociologia econômica na obra de Schumpeter é vista como uma vertente originada no programa de pesquisa historicista da Escola Histórica Alemã, com a qual teve contato. Elabora-se o modo como ele compreende o capitalismo enquanto realidade econômica-institucional específica cujo dinamismo, decorrente de causas endógenas, é entendido à luz da sociologia econômica, pontuando as transformações institucionais por que passam o capitalismo.
Economic decision-making depends not only on structured signals such as prices and taxes, but also on unstructured language, including peer dialogue and media narratives. While multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) has shown promise in optimizing economic decisions, it struggles with the semantic ambiguity and contextual richness of language. We propose LAMP (Language-Augmented Multi-Agent Policy), a framework that integrates language into economic decision-making and narrows the gap to real-world settings. LAMP follows a Think-Speak-Decide pipeline: (1) Think interprets numerical observations to extract short-term shocks and long-term trends, caching high-value reasoning trajectories; (2) Speak crafts and exchanges strategic messages based on reasoning, updating beliefs by parsing peer communications; and (3) Decide fuses numerical data, reasoning, and reflections into a MARL policy to optimize language-augmented decision-making. Experiments in economic simulation show that LAMP outperforms both MARL and LLM-only baselines in cumulative return (+63.5%, +34.0%), robustness (+18.8%, +59.4%), and interpretability. These results demonstrate the potential of language-augmented policies to deliver more effective and robust economic strategies.
Tobias Schmidt, Kai-Robin Lange, Matthias Reccius
et al.
As interest in economic narratives has grown in recent years, so has the number of pipelines dedicated to extracting such narratives from texts. Pipelines often employ a mix of state-of-the-art natural language processing techniques, such as BERT, to tackle this task. While effective on foundational linguistic operations essential for narrative extraction, such models lack the deeper semantic understanding required to distinguish extracting economic narratives from merely conducting classic tasks like Semantic Role Labeling. Instead of relying on complex model pipelines, we evaluate the benefits of Large Language Models (LLMs) by analyzing a corpus of Wall Street Journal and New York Times newspaper articles about inflation. We apply a rigorous narrative definition and compare GPT-4o outputs to gold-standard narratives produced by expert annotators. Our results suggests that GPT-4o is capable of extracting valid economic narratives in a structured format, but still falls short of expert-level performance when handling complex documents and narratives. Given the novelty of LLMs in economic research, we also provide guidance for future work in economics and the social sciences that employs LLMs to pursue similar objectives.
In a series of papers, Garrett, et al, presents a thermodynamic economic model first laid out in "Are there basic physical constraints on future anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide?". This model contains a key conceptual issue that obscures a robust system. This system can link to the Energy Based Cobb-Douglas equation. The key conceptual problem is the belief that $λ$, the symbol for growth in Garrett 2011 would disprove the model if it was not constant. However, $λ$ cannot be a constant in an economic model, because $λ$, with dimension [$\frac{E}{\$ \; GWP}$], represents the aggregate efficiency of all of the more than 359 million firms (and by extension, households) making products globally. To clarify it, I define this aggregate production function distribution as $Λ(t) \equiv \sum {λ_i(t) \cdot \frac{P_i}{GWP}}$, and with light algebra assign a version of the Energy Based Cobb-Douglas (EBDC) function to $λ$. There are various falsified speculations in the body of work that appear to mostly follow from the original issue. The 50 year stable relation of $W$ to $E$ is close, but the trend is not flat. The form and degree to which the "long arm of history" speculation may be true remains to be fully considered, but is falsified in the form presented. The speculation in Garrett 2022 that $\frac{dE}{dt}\rightarrow0$ can cause real GDP to go to zero by inflation is falsified. By generating a dataset going back to -14,000 CE, the speculative $W$ curve appears largely confirmed. The $E$ curve is quite far off prior to 1970 back to 1 CE due to overestimation of pre-industrial energy. By correcting and improving on the foundation issue of Garrett's yeoman effort, improving $E$ and some equation presentation formalism, a robust thermodynamic model of the global economy emerges that is straightforward and practical.
Este documento tiene como finalidad mostrar la manera en que se dio el ejercicio del poder y la justificación del uso de la violencia entre, y hacia las y los estudiantes, en especial por parte del presunto grupo de porros y choque identificado como: “Bloque Negro”; esto, durante el paro que inició el 29 de septiembre del 2022 y terminó después de 30 días, el 29 de octubre, en la Universidad Autónoma de Querétaro (UAQ). La investigación se focalizó en el Centro Universitario (CU), y el tema fue abordado desde la prensa, redes sociales y las perspectivas de quienes participaron en la movilización; se buscó conocer la estructura, integración y violencias dadas en un movimiento estudiantil contemporáneo, y observar cómo fue justificado de acuerdo al contexto de las y los actores involucrados. Se concluyó que el paro tenía fines y demandas justas por parte de la comunidad, pero hubo injerencia de grupos con intereses particulares que se infiltraron a un movimiento estudiantil legítimo, y utilizaron la violencia como un mecanismo de poder y coerción para asegurarse el control de todo el movimiento, para así introducir su propia agenda política.
Social history and conditions. Social problems. Social reform, Economic history and conditions
The co-evolution of economic and ecological activities represents one of the fundamental challenges in the realm of sustainable development. This study on the word trends in mainstream newspapers from the UK and China reveals that both early-industrialised countries and latecomers follow three modes of economic and ecological co-evolution. First, both economic and ecological words demonstrate an S-shaped growth trajectory, and the mode underscores the importance of information propagation, whilst also highlighting the crucial role of self-organisation in the accept society. Second, the co-occurrence of these two type words exhibits a Z-shaped relationship: for two-thirds of the observed period, they display synergistic interactions, while the remaining time shows trade-offs. Lastly, the words related to ecological degradation follow M-shaped trajectories in parallel with economic growth, suggesting periodic disruptions and reconstructions in their interrelationships. Our findings contribute to a more nuanced understanding of the co-evolutionary mechanisms that govern collective behaviours in human society.
Problems with uniform probabilities on an infinite support show up in contemporary cosmology. This paper focuses on the context of inflation theory, where it complicates the assignment of a probability measure over pocket universes. The measure problem in cosmology, whereby it seems impossible to pick out a uniquely well-motivated measure, is associated with a paradox that occurs in standard probability theory and crucially involves uniformity on an infinite sample space. This problem has been discussed by physicists, albeit without reference to earlier work on this topic. The aim of this article is both to introduce philosophers of probability to these recent discussions in cosmology and to familiarize physicists and philosophers working on cosmology with relevant foundational work by Kolmogorov, de Finetti, Jaynes, and other probabilists. As such, the main goal is not to solve the measure problem, but to clarify the exact origin of some of the current obstacles. The analysis of the assumptions going into the paradox indicates that there exist multiple ways of dealing consistently with uniform probabilities on infinite sample spaces. Taking a pluralist stance towards the mathematical methods used in cosmology shows there is some room for progress with assigning probabilities in cosmological theories.
Статтю присвячено історії вивчення, а також аналізу ступеня вивченості жіночого металевого вбрання (костюма) культури смоленсько-полоцьких довгих курганів, яку прийнято ототожнювати з літописними кривичами. Автор проаналізував низку наукових публікацій, на основі яких було зроблено висновок про те, що цілеспрямоване вивчення цього питання почалось з 1960-х р. У вивченні жіночого ювелірного убору кривичів можна виокремити три періоди. Перший період (1960-ті – початок 1990-х рр.) характеризується поступовим відходом від сприйняття жіночого убору «культури довгих курганів» тільки як джерела: убір став предметом дослідження. Другий період (1990-ті – 2017 рр.) характеризується цілеспрямованим вивченням жіночого убору в рамках поняття культури смоленсько-полоцьких довгих курганів (КСПДК). У цей час виникають досить детальні типології окремих елементів жіночого убору КСПДК. З 2017 р. починається третій період (2017 рік – наш час). Він виділений на основі виявлених безкурганних поховань КСПДК, у яких трапляються нові «нетипові» жіночі прикраси. Це спонукало дослідників до переосмислення традицій поховального обряду та характерних елементів жіночого убору кривичів. Серед основних дослідників можна назвати імена Є. А. Шмідта, В. В. Сєдова, В. В. Єнукова, В. С. Нєфьодова. За результатами багаторічних досліджень було виділено речі, які виступають як «культурні маркери», запропоновано типології та хронологію окремих елементів жіночого металевого вбрання: скроневих кілець, головних вінець, тримачів. Встановлено, що при дослідженні жіночого ювелірного вбрання культури смоленсько-полоцьких довгих курганів переважає «мікрорегіональний підхід»: типології інвентарю переважно базуються на матеріалах смоленської частини ареалу культури. Отже, існує «розрив» у рівні вивченості жіночого металевого вбрання між російськими та білоруськими дослідниками: на території Білорусі вивчення його локальних особливостей та хронології тільки почалось.
Cities. Urban geography, Economic history and conditions
This paper proposes new tests for financing constraints on R&D investment by directly examining the role played by working capital in smoothing the R&D expenditures of firms listed on the Tel Aviv stock exchange. It emphasizes the importance of working capital, not only for use but also as a source of funds. The findings offer new evidence for why levels of liquidity are important for R&D-intensive firms. Working capital alleviates the effects of transient finance shocks on the level of R&D, thereby averting the high adjustment costs that accompany changes in R&D.
Economic growth, development, planning, Economic history and conditions
We consider optimal intervention in the Elliott-Golub-Jackson network model \cite{jackson14} and we show that it can be transformed into an influence maximization-like form, interpreted as the reverse of a default cascade. Our analysis of the optimal intervention problem extends well-established targeting results to the economic network setting, which requires additional theoretical steps. We prove several results about optimal intervention: it is NP-hard and cannot be approximated to a constant factor in polynomial time. In turn, we show that randomizing failure thresholds leads to a version of the problem which is monotone submodular, for which existing powerful approximations in polynomial time can be applied. In addition to optimal intervention, we also show practical consequences of our analysis to other economic network problems: (1) it is computationally hard to calculate expected values in the economic network, and (2) influence maximization algorithms can enable efficient importance sampling and stress testing of large failure scenarios. We illustrate our results on a network of firms connected through input-output linkages inferred from the World Input Output Database.
When making decisions under risk, people often exhibit behaviors that classical economic theories cannot explain. Newer models that attempt to account for these irrational behaviors often lack neuroscience bases and require the introduction of subjective and problem-specific constructs. Here, we present a decision-making model inspired by the prediction error signals and introspective neuronal replay reported in the brain. In the model, decisions are chosen based on anticipated surprise, defined by a nonlinear average of the differences between individual outcomes and a reference point. The reference point is determined by the expected value of the possible outcomes, which can dynamically change during the mental simulation of decision-making problems involving sequential stages. Our model elucidates the contribution of each stage to the appeal of available options in a decision-making problem. This allows us to explain several economic paradoxes and gambling behaviors. Our work could help bridge the gap between decision-making theories in economics and neurosciences.
An economic model of crime is used to explore the consistent estimation of a simultaneous linear equation without recourse to instrumental variables. A maximum-likelihood procedure (NISE) is introduced, and its results are compared to ordinary least squares and two-stage least squares. The paper is motivated by previous research on the crime model and by the well-known practical problem that valid instruments are frequently unavailable.
In this article we study how the monetary transmission mechanism (the process through
which monetary policy affects aggregate demand and inflation) alters when the nominal
interest rates become negative, through the case of Switzerland. The results of our models
show that the effectiveness of the interest rate channel of the transmission mechanism
decreases at negative nominal interest rates. However, considering the limits of the
models and the unique factors affecting the monetary transmission in Switzerland, clear
conclusions about the effectiveness of the interest rate channel cannot be made.
Economic theory. Demography, Economic history and conditions
Health economic evaluations face the issues of non-compliance and missing data. Here, non-compliance is defined as non-adherence to a specific treatment, and occurs within randomised controlled trials (RCTs) when participants depart from their random assignment. Missing data arises if, for example, there is loss to follow-up, survey non-response, or the information available from routine data sources is incomplete. Appropriate statistical methods for handling non-compliance and missing data have been developed, but they have rarely been applied in health economics studies. Here, we illustrate the issues and outline some of the appropriate methods to handle these with an application to a health economic evaluation that uses data from an RCT. In an RCT the random assignment can be used as an instrument for treatment receipt, to obtain consistent estimates of the complier average causal effect, provided the underlying assumptions are met. Instrumental variable methods can accommodate essential features of the health economic context such as the correlation between individuals' costs and outcomes in cost-effectiveness studies. Methodological guidance for handling missing data encourages approaches such as multiple imputation or inverse probability weighting, that assume the data are Missing At Random, but also sensitivity analyses that recognise the data may be missing according to the true, unobserved values, that is, Missing Not at Random. Future studies should subject the assumptions behind methods for handling non-compliance and missing data to thorough sensitivity analyses. Modern machine learning methods can help reduce reliance on correct model specification. Further research is required to develop flexible methods for handling more complex forms of non-compliance and missing data.
This paper proposes a convex non-linear cost saving model for optimal economic dispatch in a microgrid. The mod-el incorporates energy storage degradation cost and intermittent renewable generation. Cell degradation cost being a non-linear model, its incorporation in an objective function alters the convexity of the optimization problem and stochastic algorithms are required for its solution. This paper builds on the scope for usage of macroscopically semi-empirical models for degradation cost in economic dispatch problems and proves that these cost models derived from the existing semi-empirical capacity fade equations for LiFePO4 cells are convex under some operating condi-tions. The proposed non-linear model was tested on two data sets of varying size which portray different trends of seasonality. The results show that the model reflects the trends of seasonality existing in the data sets and it mini-mizes the total fuel cost globally when compared to conventional systems of economic dispatch. The results thus indicate that the model achieves a more accurate estimate of fuel cost in the system and can be effectively utilized for cost analysis in power system applications.
Tiziano Squartini, Guido Caldarelli, Giulio Cimini
et al.
When studying social, economic and biological systems, one has often access to only limited information about the structure of the underlying networks. An example of paramount importance is provided by financial systems: information on the interconnections between financial institutions is privacy-protected, dramatically reducing the possibility of correctly estimating crucial systemic properties such as the resilience to the propagation of shocks. The need to compensate for the scarcity of data, while optimally employing the available information, has led to the birth of a research field known as network reconstruction. Since the latter has benefited from the contribution of researchers working in disciplines as different as mathematics, physics and economics, the results achieved so far are still scattered across heterogeneous publications. Most importantly, a systematic comparison of the network reconstruction methods proposed up to now is currently missing. This review aims at providing a unifying framework to present all these studies, mainly focusing on their application to economic and financial networks.
El objetivo del presente estudio es estimar el impacto del programa Juntos sobre el gasto per cápita en alimentos en los hogares rurales, como fuente de información se utiliza la base de datos de la Encuesta Nacional de Hogares – 2015, la metodología es la técnica de diseño cuasi-experimental Propensity Score Matching – PSM con la técnica de emparejamiento de vecino más cercano (Nearest Neighbor Matching), este método consiste en comparar el gasto per cápita en alimentos que obtiene cada beneficiario tratado con el grupo de control que tenga el propensity score más cercano, luego se calcula la diferencia entre cada par de hogares emparejadas en el gasto per cápita en alimentos y luego se promedian todas las diferencias para calcular el ATT. La unidad de análisis son los hogares rurales de la sierra y selva del Perú en condición de pobreza y extrema pobreza. Los resultados reportan que la probabilidad de participar en el programa Juntos depende de las características del hogar, de la vivienda y del jefe de hogar. Asimismo, los resultados sugieren que el programa Juntos si tiene un impacto positivo sobre el gasto per cápita en alimentos, para aquellos hogares rurales en pobreza y extrema pobreza el programa Juntos ha incrementado el gasto per cápita en 8.9% (ATT=0.089) a un nivel de significancia de 10%.
Economics as a science, Economic history and conditions