Hasil untuk "Disasters and engineering"

David Lefutso, Abiodun A. Ogundeji, Gideon Danso-Abbeam et al.

Flood risk in South Africa remains a problem due to climate change, rapid urbanisation and persistent disparities in the region and low-income urban households are disproportionately impacted because of poor access to affordable flood insurance. This paper constructs the Integrated Market Flood Risk Insurance Framework (IMFRIF) based on a qualitative, desk-based research design consisting of contextual policy analysis, systematic literature review and analytical synthesis through systems thinking. The policy and document analysis reviewed the legislation on national disaster management, insurance and industry reports to determine institutional and market limitations on the provision of flood insurance. A PRISMA-ScR systematic literature review filtered 312 records on Scopus, Web of Science, and Google Scholar, which led to the identification of 47 peer-reviewed articles and 15 policy and comparative case studies. Thematic analysis led to the identification of six prevailing clusters of barriers based on the influence on insurance uptake, which included affordability and product design, trust and risk perception, data and risk assessment gaps, regulatory capacity, multi-stakeholder coordination, and community engagement. The results of these studies were used to design the IMFRIF, a system incorporating 9 major stakeholder groups and 5 interdependent system components into a single market-based design. The framework provides a systematic foundation to the resolution of systemic exclusion of flood insurance, but specifically acknowledges the implementation limitations regarding data availability, regulation capacity, fiscal sustainability and communal level of trust. The IMFRIF is placed as a progressive and responsive system that offers a point of future empirical confirmation and policy implementation to promote inclusive disaster risk financing in South Africa and comparable low- and middle-income contexts.

Xikun Wei, Guojie Wang, Britta Schmalz

Study region: Mainland China, encompassing 185 hydrological stations across climatic zones. Study focus: This study focuses on projecting future runoff changes across China under multiple Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. We applied advanced deep learning (DL) models, including LSTM-SA and GRU-SA, combined with high-resolution climate inputs produced by a DL-based downscaling of CMIP6 data. The models achieved strong performance, with mean Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) values of 0.65 and 0.66, and corresponding medians of 0.72 and 0.73, respectively. These results confirm the robustness of the DL-based rainfall–runoff simulations across diverse climatic and hydrological regimes. Our result further indicated that reliable monthly rainfall–runoff models can be constructed with as few as 500 training samples, highlighting the efficiency of DL approaches in data-limited settings. New hydrological insights for the region: Future runoff projections reveal overall increases at most stations, with particularly strong signals in the central transitional and southern humid regions. While the spatial distribution of changes remains consistent across scenarios, the magnitude intensifies under higher emissions. Seasonal contrasts are pronounced: summer runoff is projected to increase markedly, while winter runoff tends to decline in humid regions and shows spatial heterogeneity in transitional zones. These patterns suggest heightened risks of both floods and droughts, with more frequent extreme events likely in humid areas. The findings provide new insights into regional hydrological responses to climate change and deliver valuable scientific evidence to support adaptive water resource allocation, flood control, and drought mitigation strategies across China.

Zheng Wan, Jie Qin, Zhao Wei

On the basis of systematically sorting out the potential risk sources of underground structure construction, this paper describes the surrounding medium of underground structure as soil mass and rock mass. The main risk source of the underground structure based on soil medium comes from the construction mechanics analysis in the construction stage, and the leading factor of the underground structure loading in the construction stage is the stress-strain relationship of soil based on the unloading path. The deep underground engineering structure is faced with a series of disasters such as high-strength water gushing, high-strength rock burst, large deformation of soft rock, boulder collapse and rock burst under the action of unloading. In view of the unloading paths faced by the above two different media, the corresponding physical models are developed to describe the above phenomena according to their respective disaster evolution mechanism and disaster breeding mechanism, and the corresponding indexes required for the safety of engineering structures are obtained by solving the physical equations. According to the above indicators, the engineering structure and surrounding media in the construction process are monitored accordingly, and the feedback of the monitoring data is used to obtain the risk assessment and modify the current construction sequence, so as to provide a reference for better serving the construction safety of underground engineering structures. Citation: Wan Z

Yaoxing Liao, Zhaoli Wang, Chengguang Lai et al.

Abstract Fast and accurate prediction of urban flood is of considerable practical importance to mitigate the effects of frequent flood disasters in advance. To improve urban flood prediction efficiency and accuracy, we proposed a framework for fast mapping of urban flood: a coupled model based on physical mechanisms was first constructed, a rainfall-inundation database was generated, and a hybrid flood mapping model was finally proposed using the multi-objective random forest (MORF) method. The results show that the coupled model had good reliability in modelling urban flood, and 48 rainfall-inundation scenarios were then specified. The proposed hybrid MORF model in the framework also demonstrated good performance in predicting inundated depth under the observed and scenario rainfall events. The spatial inundated depths predicted by the MORF model were close to those of the coupled model, with differences typically less than 0.1 m and an average correlation coefficient reaching 0.951. The MORF model, however, achieved a computational speed of 200 times faster than the coupled model. The overall prediction performance of the MORF model was also better than that of the k-nearest neighbor model. Our research provides a novel approach to rapid urban flood mapping and flood early warning.

Peng Jiang, Benchao Liu, Chuanwu Wang et al.

Water inrush has become one of the bottlenecks restricting tunnel construction. Among various advanced forecasting techniques, the direct current method is more cost-effective and sensitive to water-bearing structures. It has been widely used in exploring water inrush disasters in practical engineering. Although traditional resistivity linear inversion methods are reasonably practical, they usually suffer from volume effects and cannot accurately locate the location and morphology of water-bearing bodies. Therefore, nonlinear techniques such as deep learning have recently become popular to directly approximate the inversion function by learning the mapping of apparent resistivity data to the geoelectric model. This work presents a novel deep learning-based electrical approach that combines resistivity and polarizability to estimate water-bearing location and morphology. Specifically, we design an encoder-decoder network. A shared encoder extracts features from the input data, two encoders output resistivity, and polarizability models, respectively, and fine-tuned collinear regularization for both outputs reduces solutions’ multiplicity. Compared with traditional linear inversion methods and independent parameter inversion, our proposed joint inversion method shows superiority in locating and delineating anomalous bodies.

Wanghua Sui, Zongyuan Liu, Gailing Zhang et al.

Abstract Background In recent years, the technology of blocking and grouting of has been widely used in the treatment of groundwater inrush in tunnels in China’s mines. Studies have been carried out on the aggregates pouring under hydrodynamic conditions; however, there is lack of studies of the grout propagation in the pouring aggregate mass, which formed in the earlier stage. This paper presents an experimental investigation of grout propagation in poured aggregates with flowing water, which focused on the second stage, i.e., the grouting stage, after the first stage of aggregates pouring in the salvage of an inundated underground tunnel. Results In this work, a visualized tunnel replica with flowing water was adopted to investigate the main effects of sealing efficiency, water pressure variation, propagation mechanism during grouting in the poured aggregates with different grain sizes and flowing water conditions. A series of experiments with orthogonal array design were carried out, and the propagation of cement/sodium silicate and the change characteristics of fluid pressure in the tunnel were obtained. The results show that the main effects on the sealing efficiency of grouting in poured aggregates with flowing water in a descending order is cement/sodium silicate ratio, relative density of aggregates, particle size distribution of aggregates, and final water pressure difference of both ends of aggregates segment. The cementation form of grouted aggregates has four types; T shape, H shape, O shape and shell shape. The main mode of grout propagation includes three types; permeation filling mode, compaction- permeation mode, and compaction-fracturing mode, which reflects the influence of grain size, density of aggregates and grouting pressure. The variation of water pressure can be divided into four categories; overall ascending type, step ascending type, concave type, and convex type. The curve type mainly depends on water pressure, water flowrate, relative density and grain size of aggregates, gel time, propagation mechanism of grout. Conclusion The flow rate after grouting has decreased by approximately 60% to 86% compared to that before grouting, bulk hydraulic conductivity decreased by more than 80%, reflecting a great improvement of the sealing efficiency in the grouting stage after the pouring stage. The research on grout propagation in different graded aggregate mass has guiding significance for the design and construction of a rapid disaster treatment after groundwater inrush.

Jake Rom Cadag

Heping Xie, Jianbo Zhu, Tao Zhou et al.

Many large engineering projects, e.g., the Sichuan–Tibet Railway, inevitably cross the earthquake active areas and the geology complicated zones, facing the challenges of dynamic disturbances and disasters. In view of this, the conceptualization of engineering disturbed rock dynamics is proposed in this paper, aiming to systematically study the rock dynamic behavior and response subjected to engineering disturbances, to establish the 3D rock dynamic theory, and to develop the disaster prevention and control technical measures. The classification standards of rock loading states based on strain rate are summarized and analyzed. The engineering disturbed rock dynamics is defined as the theoretical and applied science of rock dynamic behaviors, dynamic responses and their superposition caused by dynamic disturbances during engineering construction and operation periods. To achieve the goals of the proposed engineering disturbed rock dynamics, a combined methodology of theoretical analysis, laboratory experiment, numerical simulation and in situ tests is put forward. The associated research scopes are introduced, i.e., experimental and theoretical study of engineering disturbed rock dynamics, wave propagation, attenuation and superposition in rock masses, rock dynamic response of different loading conditions, dynamic response of engineering projects under construction disturbance and disaster mitigation techniques, and dynamic response of major engineering projects under operation disturbance and safety guarantee measures. Some theoretical, experimental and field preliminary studies were performed, including dynamic behavior of disturbed rock at varied depth and strain rates, dynamic response of rock mass subjected to blasting excavation disturbance and dynamic drilling disturbance, and disturbance of rock mass subjected to TBM excavation. Preliminary results showed that the rock masses are significantly disturbed by dynamic disturbances during construction and operation periods of engineering projects. The innovative conceptualization of engineering disturbed rock dynamics and the expected associated outcomes could facilitate establishing the 3D rock dynamic theory and offering theoretical fundamentals and technical guarantees for safety and reliability of the design, construction and operation of modern large engineering.

Zohreh Masoumi

Abstract In urban areas, flood susceptibility assessment is of special importance because of the high settlement population, properties, and infrastructures. Geospatial information science (GIS) provides a tool for investigating flood susceptibility based on several aspects including economic damages and critical infrastructures in cities. This study aims to provide a tool based on GIS analyses to support decision‐makers in identifying flood hazards in urban areas, in which previous flood data, flood causative factors, and urban infrastructure data are not adequately available. To assess flood susceptibility in the study area, the related spatial high‐resolution data were produced. Then, flood zones were estimated for different recurrence intervals using meteorological data. Finally, susceptibility was assessed in urban areas for different urban infrastructures using GIS modeling. The model was designed based on the assumption that any critical urban infrastructure, such as power towers, was affected by flood zones and, in addition to flooding, could cause hazards by itself. Moreover, five scenarios were defined to calculate susceptibility when in the problematic locations of the floodway. DoAsb Floodway was chosen as a case study located in Zanjan city, northwest of Iran. The results indicated the high‐susceptible areas around the floodway. Moreover, the flood susceptibility level for each urban infrastructure in the study area was calculated and classified into five classes from low susceptible to very high susceptible. Also, the results of the five scenarios showed if some parts of the floodway had problems, the susceptibility rate would be high. The generated flood susceptibility maps of this model can be used to plan suitable programs in order to avoid flood damage and ensure public safety.

Ajay Kumar Taloor, Asha Thapliyal, Sanjeev Kimothi et al.

This study, motivated by the flood disaster that took place at the glaciated region in Rishi Ganga Basin of Nanda Devi Biosphere Reserve (NDBR), Uttarakhand on 7th February 2021, intends to identify the altitudinal and sequential changes in the glacier region using satellite imageries. Our results suggest that 21.50 km2 and 34.70 km2 glacier area was lost from the region during the period 1976–2013 and 1976–2020 respectively. Besides this, out of the 106 High Altitude Glacial Lakes (HAGLs) found at an altitude of 4500 m above mean sea level (amsl), 14 potential spots are identified which can be a reason for future calamities. Our analysis of snow cover extents for the decade 2010–2021 suggests a considerable decrease of (16–28%) in winter snow cover. The unpredictable temperature fluctuations especially during the last few decades have also affected the freezing and thawing processes in the high-altitude areas. The changing behavior of the weathering processes quite often results in landslides, a major reason for disasters in the higher Himalaya. There is, thus, an urgent need to identify the high-risk sites in higher Himalaya which may be potential zones for future landslides. In anticipation to mitigate the resulting damages, the study emphasizes developing an early warning system based on geospatial technology to minimize loss of life, particularly for the workers employed in the engineering projects in the vicinity of the risk zone.

Deysi Ofelmina Jerez-Ramírez

This investigation aims to better understand the socio-territoriality of disaster risk from the analysis of Social Representations (SR) elaborated in shared contexts of vulnerability and exposure. For this purpose, the narratives and images constructed by a selected population have been investigated using tools such as social cartography, free association questionnaires, and detailed semi- structured interviews. The study is part of an investigation carried out between 2014 and 2019, with a population from the urban, rural and peripheral areas of the municipality of Piedecuesta, Colombia. The methodology is based on a triangulation of qualitative methods that are characteristic of the works on SR and the social studies of disasters. The results show the two-way influence between the knowledge-practices collectively elaborated around disaster risk and the social agency that subjects perform over their own territory.

R. Rodríguez, Paola Durán

In the current scenario of climate change, the future of agriculture is uncertain. Climate change and climate-related disasters have a direct impact on biotic and abiotic factors that govern agroecosystems compromising the global food security. In the last decade, the advances in high throughput sequencing techniques have significantly improved our understanding about the composition, function and dynamics of plant microbiome. However, despite the microbiome have been proposed as a new platform for the next green revolution, our knowledge about the mechanisms that govern microbe-microbe and microbe-plant interactions are incipient. Currently, the adaptation of plants to environmental changes not only suggests that the plants can adapt or migrate, but also can interact with their surrounding microbial communities to alleviate different stresses by natural microbiome selection of specialized strains, phenomenon recently called “Cry for Help”. From this way, plants have been co-evolved with their microbiota adapting to local environmental conditions to ensuring the survival of the entire holobiome to improve plant fitness. Thus, the strong selective pressure of native extreme microbiomes could represent a remarkable microbial niche of plant stress-amelioration to counteract the negative effect of climate change in food crops. Currently, the microbiome engineering has recently emerged as an alternative to modify and promote positive interactions between microorganisms and plants to improve plant fitness. In the present review, we discuss the possible use of extreme microbiome to alleviate different stresses in crop plants under the current scenario of climate change.

Xinzheng Lu, Wenjie Liao, D. Fang et al.

Abstract Resistance to unexpected disasters and rapid post-disaster recovery (i.e., disaster resilience) of cities are extremely necessary owing to the concentrated risk of urbanization. Resilience quantification can adequately reflect the capacity of a city to withstand disasters. Many existing studies have focused on and proposed several frameworks on the quantitative measures of disaster resilience, and the corresponding research objects include different types of disasters (e.g., earthquake, hurricane, flood, and fire), various domains (e.g., engineering, social, and economic), and multiple levels (e.g., city, community, and building). Among these research objects, studies on seismic resilience in civil engineering are relatively comprehensive. Specifically, studies on resilience in civil engineering have paid significant attention to the dynamics of engineering facilities and the engineering-related social and economic functions, including city-scale engineering, social, and economic functionalities, and essential functionalities of building, transportation, lifeline, and nonphysical subsystems of a city. Consequently, based on the review of resilience studies carried out in recent years, the framework and specifications for the quantification of disaster resilience of civil engineering systems subjected to earthquakes and other unexpected disasters are elaborated. Methods of disaster resilience assessment of cities and the corresponding subsystems are discussed. Furthermore, several case studies are reviewed, and resilience limit-state analyses of communities and buildings are performed.

B. Pawar, Sunhwa Park, Pingfan Hu et al.

Abstract This paper reviews literature that addresses applications of resilience engineering principles to various fields. Recently the concept has attracted great attention from a technical and industrial perspective. The primary focus of this paper is to review the resilience engineering applications to industrial systems with the purpose of applying them to the chemical industry. A systematic review is performed to classify peer-reviewed journal papers that are associated with resilience engineering applications into three categories: industrial systems, ecological systems, and interlinked systems. The literature in the category of industrial systems is further divided based on the type of approaches such as field studies, case studies, methodologies, and mathematical modeling. After thoroughly analyzing the literature, four key research areas are identified: Considering socio-technical factors for resilience assessment efficiently; Inculcating the possibility of multiple disasters in resilience assessment; Design optimization for resilience enhancement; Efficient restoration strategies. All these research areas have not been explored exclusively for chemical facilities to a great extent. It is concluded that if these research areas are addressed appropriately, it would help in triggering the research pertaining to the application of resilience engineering principles in chemical facilities.

Elaine E. Englehardt, P. Werhane, L. Newton

S. C. Li, J. Wu

António Betâmio de Almeida

A aplicação do conceito de resiliência no domínio da gestão de crises e do risco é relativamente recente mas tem tido um desenvolvimento muito relevante. O termo resiliência tem sido aplicado ao longo do tempo a diferentes áreas e a palavra resiliência pode ser considerada como parcialmente polissémica. Desde a mecânica dos materiais, a psicologia e a ecologia, a resiliência veio no século XXI acompanhar o termo sustentabilidade e caracterizar uma característica de gestão e da capacidade de reabilitação de instalações e sistemas naturais. A gestão da resiliência constitui um processo complementar e interligado ao da gestão do risco e que envolve diversas dimensões sociais e técnicas. Com a evolução da técnica e em particular com a aplicação de novas tecnologias de análise e de apoio à decisão, as frases atribuídas a Lord Kelvin (1824-1907) “o que não se pode medir não é possível melhorar” ou “o que é real pode sempre ser mensurável” poderão ser uma justificação filosófica, entre outras razões práticas, do interesse na caracterização e nas análises quantitativas. Com efeito, os conceitos de risco e de resiliência podem ser abordados por diferentes metodologias mas verifica-se um grande interesse prático na quantificação desses conceitos. Surge assim o tema da conceptualização e da métrica da resiliência. Na bibliografia podem-se encontrar diferentes modos para definir e quantificar a resiliência em engenharia, envolvendo as suas múltiplas dimensões O texto é baseado numa análise bibliográfica da matéria e numa subsequente reflexão pessoal com a finalidade de apresentar métodos simplificados de métrica da resiliência bem como numa análise crítica das vantagens na quantificação da resiliência e também das suas limitações.

L. Zhang, S. Gong, T. Zhao et al.

<p>The development of chemical transport models with advanced physics and chemical schemes could improve air-quality forecasts. In this study, the China Meteorological Administration Unified Atmospheric Chemistry Environment (CUACE) model, a comprehensive chemistry module incorporating gaseous chemistry and a size-segregated multicomponent aerosol algorithm, was coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) framework with chemistry (WRF-Chem) using an interface procedure to build the WRF/CUACE v1.0 model. The latest version of CUACE includes an updated aerosol dry deposition scheme and the introduction of heterogeneous chemical reactions on aerosol surfaces. We evaluated the WRF/CUACE v1.0 model by simulating PM<span class="inline-formula">_2.5</span>, <span class="inline-formula">O₃</span>, <span class="inline-formula">NO₂</span>, and <span class="inline-formula">SO₂</span> concentrations for January, April, July, and October (representing winter, spring, summer and autumn, respectively) in 2013, 2015, and 2017 and comparing them with ground-based observations. Secondary inorganic aerosol simulations for the North China Plain (NCP), Yangtze River Delta (YRD), and Sichuan Basin (SCB) were also evaluated. The model captured well the variations of PM<span class="inline-formula">_2.5</span>, <span class="inline-formula">O₃</span>, and <span class="inline-formula">NO₂</span> concentrations in all seasons in eastern China. However, it is difficult to accurately reproduce the variations of air pollutants over SCB, due to its deep basin terrain. The simulations of <span class="inline-formula">SO₂</span> were generally reasonable in the NCP and YRD with the bias at <span class="inline-formula">−15.5</span> % and 24.55 %, respectively, while they were poor in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) and SCB. The sulfate and nitrate simulations were substantially improved by introducing heterogeneous chemical reactions into the CUACE model (e.g., change in bias from <span class="inline-formula">−95.0</span> % to 4.1 % for sulfate and from 124.1 % to 96.0 % for nitrate in the NCP). Additionally, The WRF/CUACE v1.0 model was revealed with better performance in simulating chemical species relative to the coupled Fifth-Generation Penn State/NCAR Mesoscale Model (MM5) and CUACE model. The development of the WRF/CUACE v1.0 model represents an important step towards improving air-quality modeling and forecasts in China.</p>

Erkan Ateş

The most valid way to determine the soil amplification is to use the analysis of strong ground motion records. The Earthquake Observation Station located in Ankara AFAD campus was established in 2014. There are many official institutions such as Ankara Bilkent City Hospital, Ministry of Health, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, and Ministry of Trade within the working area. Since the earthquake station was established, 22 earthquake records have been registered. Multichannel analysis of surface waves (MASW) was measured to calculate the average shear wave velocity of the upper 30 and 50 meters of the soil where the station was located. 14 earthquake records of different magnitudes and distances occurring in different fault zones recorded by the station were interpreted using the horizontal / vertical ratio technique according to the single station method, and the amplification factor and dominant vibration frequency of the soil were calculated. Apart from the earthquake records, 4 hours of microtremor measurements were made with the CMG-6TD broadband seismometer, and the measurements were evaluated according to the single station method and the horizontal / vertical spectral ratio technique. The results of MASW, microtremor and earthquake records were compared, and the dynamic properties of soil were studied. According to the results obtained from the analysis of earthquake and microtremor records, it has been observed that the amplification factor and predominant frequencies are very close to each other, compatible to the soil class calculated by using the shear wave velocity.

Sara N. Garcia, Sara N. Garcia, Bennie I. Osburn et al.

Globally, our society faces an enormous challenge to feed, house, and provide a healthy life for the growing human population while preserving the environment and natural resources for the benefit of future generations. In order to meet these challenges, sustainable food production and environmental stewardship is paramount and will require a One Health approach. One Health is the concept that the health of humans, animals, and the environment are inextricably linked. This approach can be applied to food safety, sustainable food production, and environmental stewardship by bringing together interdisciplinary teams to create a One Health network to address these challenges. In order to achieve food security for the global population, preserve natural resources, and improve health through safeguarding food safety, there is a need for increased awareness among academics, producers, consumers, and government agencies in the following topics: (1) One Health Initiatives for Sustainable Food Systems, Food Safety and Food Security, (2) Brief History of Food Safety in the United States, (3) Food Safety in the Twenty First Century: The Need for a New Perspective, (4) Food Security in the Twenty First Century: Disasters and Transboundary Disease. These topics cover the need for incorporating One Health education into curriculum for scientific, engineering, and humanities programs to build capacity in One Health competencies with the goal of established networks that will work toward improving public health, food safety, and sustainable agriculture by establishing new perspectives on interactions among plants, animals, and humans and recognizing the threat of disasters and transboundary diseases to food security.