Hasil untuk "Demography. Population. Vital events"

Ji-hae Yoon, Name Park, Ye-Eun Kang et al.

Background Fatigue is one of the most common subjective symptoms that impairs daily life and predict health-related events. This study aimed to estimate the prevalence of fatigue in the global population. Methods PubMed and the Cochrane Library were used to search for relevant articles from inception to December 31, 2021. Studies with prevalence data of fatigue in the general population were selected and reviewed by three authors independently and cross-checked. Regarding subgroups, adults (≥18 years), minors (<18 years), and specific occupation population (participants in each study being limited to a specific occupational group), and fatigue types and severity, meta-analysis was conducted to produce point estimates and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). Results From the initial 3,432 studies, 91 studies accounting for 115 prevalence data points (623,624 participants) were finally selected. The prevalence of general fatigue (fatigue lasting < 6 months, or fatigue of unspecified duration) was 20.4% (95% CI, 16.7–25.0) in adults, 11.7% (95% CI, 5.2–26.6) in minors, and 42.3% (95% CI, 33.0–54.2) in specific occupations. Chronic fatigue (fatigue lasting more than 6 months) affected 10.1% (95% CI, 8.2–12.5) of adults, 1.5% (95% CI, 0.5–4.7) of minors, and 5.5% (95% CI, 1.4–21.6) of subjects in specific occupations. There was an overall female-predominant prevalence for all subgroup analyses, with a total odds ratio of 1.4 (95% CI, 1.3–1.6). Regarding the severity and presence of medical causes, the total prevalence of moderate fatigue [14.6% (95% CI, 9.8–21.8)] was 2.4-fold that of severe fatigue [6.1% (95% CI, 3.4–11.0)], while unexplained fatigue (fatigue experienced by individuals without any underlying medical condition that can explain the fatigue) was ~2.7-fold that of explained fatigue (fatigue experienced by individuals with a medical condition that can explain the fatigue); as proportion of 40.0% of physical, 8.6% of mental, and 28.4% of mixed cause. Conclusions This study has produced the first comprehensive picture of global fatigue prevalence in the general population, which will provide vital reference data contributing to fatigue-related research, including the prevention of diseases. Systematic review registration Identifier: CRD42021270498.

Molly M. Koeck, A. Moeller, R. Elmore et al.

ABSTRACT Quantifying the demography of wildlife is vital to population monitoring; however, studies using physical capture methods can prove challenging. Camera traps have gained popularity as a density estimator tool in recent decades due to noninvasive data collection, reduced labor, cost efficiency, and large‐scale monitoring capabilities. Many wildlife populations are comprised of individuals with no unique natural markers for individual identification, resulting in need for unmarked abundance models. The recently developed Space‐to‐Event (STE) model offers a method for density estimation of unmarked populations using timelapse photography. STE relates detections of animals to camera sampling area (i.e., viewshed), resulting in density estimates that can be extrapolated to abundance over large areas. Consequently, this makes STE sensitive to estimates of viewshed area as small changes in viewshed could significantly affect density estimation. Using STE, we estimated density and recruitment of white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in a densely forested landscape using measurements of viewshed per camera. We compared estimates of abundance derived from uniquely measured viewshed to estimates of abundance derived from an assumed viewshed area held constant across all cameras. When using a constant viewshed across all cameras, our point estimates of abundance shifted away from uniquely measured viewshed estimates in predictable ways, depending upon how much area was sampled. Additionally, we demonstrated the need for further exploration of animal availability at fine temporal scales by comparing estimates of density derived from sampling the full diel period to estimates derived from periods of peak activity (i.e., crepuscular periods). Finally, we extended the usefulness of the STE model by using densities of fawns and adult females to derive estimates of fawn recruitment.

Joël Kiniati Fumwakwau, M. Schedwin, Mireille A Ngale et al.

Background There is a paucity of data on causes of death in children and adolescents that can be used for public health prioritisation in settings with the highest mortality burden. We aimed to estimate the causes and circumstances around deaths for the age group 1 month to 19 years in the Western Democratic Republic of Congo. Methods Analysis of verbal autopsy and demographic data from the Kimpese Health and Demographic Surveillance System (rural setting 200 km west of Kinshasa) was collected between September 2018 and September 2021. About 66 000 individuals were surveyed yearly using structured questionnaires. Vital events were registered and identified deaths followed up with the World Health Organization 2012 or 2016 verbal autopsy questionnaire. Verbal autopsies were analysed using the InterVA-5 algorithm to generate cause of death and circumstances of mortality categories at the population level. Individual and household characteristics relevant to child survival were compared between deceased and surviving individuals using Fisher’s exact test. Results Overall, 166/273 (61%) of identified deaths had a complete verbal autopsy. 74% of deaths occurred in children 1–59 months of age, and 70% of all deaths were classified as due to infectious diseases. The top three causes were malaria (35%), lower respiratory infection (12%) and diarrhoeal disease (9%). 78% of deaths occurred at home, and <5% were considered inevitable. However, 70% of individuals sought healthcare in the days preceding death. Recognition (39%), emergencies (27%) and accessing care (20%) were the main contributing categories to fatal outcomes. Characteristics had low coverage (32–72% for the first dose of vaccinations and <10% for water, sanitation and hygiene). Conclusions Results suggest a need to sensitise caregivers about care-seeking, home treatment and danger signs and improve access to health facilities, combined with improving the quality of care in facilities. Improvements in access to safe water, sanitation and vaccination coverage are also needed.

Mohamed R Habib, S. Lv, Yun-hai Guo et al.

Roman Hoffmann, L. Andriano, E. Striessnig et al.

Climate change represents one of the most pressing challenges for societies in the 21st century. This special issue of the Vienna Yearbook of Population Research (VYPR) brings together interdisciplinary contributions from 51 authors to explore the demographic dimensions of climate change. In many ways, human populations are at the center of the current climate crisis. On the one hand, anthropogenic forces are responsible for the unprecedented changes in the climate system that are currently being observed. It is the burning of fossil fuels that has significantly increased greenhouse gas concentrations, driving global warming and altering natural climate patterns. On the other hand, human populations are also profoundly affected by these changes, as they are facing increased risks from extreme weather events, rising sea levels and shifting ecosystems, which, in turn, impact livelihoods, food and water security, and health and well-being. This special issue provides a comprehensive overview of both the role of population as a driving force of climate change and the significance of its impacts in the areas of health and mortality, migration, and fertility and reproductive behaviors. In addition to 10 research articles, the special issue features seven debate articles by leading scholars, who provide reflections on the climate-population nexus and the role of demographic science in climate change mitigation. Demography offers a wide range of perspectives and methodological tools to understand and address the climate-population nexus, including in the areas of health and population data, mathematical and statistical modeling, and projections. We advocate for a holistic research perspective that incorporates issues related to increasing climate risks into demographic thinking, and vice versa. A thorough understanding of the intricate relationship between populations, population dynamics and climate change is necessary for the development of effective and equitable mitigation and adaptation strategies that address both global and local challenges over time.

Ronald Lee

The long human lifespan enables long run forecasts of population size and age distribution. New methods include biodemographic research on upper limits to life expectancy and incorporation of early experiences affecting later life mortality such as smoking, obesity, and childhood health shocks. Some fertility forecasts incorporate education and quantum‐tempo insights. Statistical time series and Bayesian methods generate probabilistic forecasts. Yet recent decades have brought surprising changes in the economy, natural environment, and vital rates. In these changing circumstances we need new methods and the increasing use of probabilistic models and Bayesian methods incorporating outside information. The increasing use of microsimulation combined with aggregate forecasting methods is a very promising development enabling more detailed and heterogeneous forecasts. Some new uses of stochastic forecasts are interesting in themselves. Probabilistic mortality forecasts are used in finance and insurance, and a new Longevity Swap industry has been built on them. Random sample paths used to generate stochastic population forecasts can stress‐test public pension designs for fiscal stability and intergenerational equity. Population forecasting a few decades ago was a dull backwater of demographic research, but now it is increasingly important and is full of intellectual and technical challenges.

Vanessa Wittemann, Gordey Yastrebov

In this study, we explore how educational differences in demographic behavior – in particular, mating patterns and fertility – mediate the intergenerational reproduction of educational inequality in twelve European countries. Although this research interest itself is not new, we contribute to this debate by adopting a prospective approach and scaling it to include multiple countries and cohorts. To this end, we leverage a series of complementary datasets and the inferential method developed by Song and Mare (2015) and advanced by Skopek and Leopold (2020) to estimate the components of a stylized educational reproduction model. We then employ a simple decomposition analysis to quantify the contributions of different pathways to prospective educational reproduction rates across educational backgrounds and explore the differences across cohorts and countries. We report several findings. Most notably, (1) the intergenerational reproduction of educational inequality persists in all twelve countries and is barely offset by small (and declining) negative educational gradients in fertility, (2) educational differences in selection into partnership are small and do not account for much inequality, and (3) the role of assortative mating, where present, is ambiguous because it both reinforces inequality via its effects on resources within the family and offsets it via its effects on fertility. * This article belongs to a special issue on “Changes in Educational Homogamy and Its Consequences”.

Amreen Babujee, Hong Lu, Therese Stukel et al.

Objectives Our understanding of the contribution of new presentations versus pre-existing eating disorders during the COVID-19 pandemic is limited. This study aims to evaluate rates of emergency department (ED) visits and hospitalizations for eating disorders among adolescents and young adults (YA) new to care and those with pre-existing eating disorders during the pandemic. Approach We conducted a population-based cross-sectional study using linked health administrative data for Ontario residents aged 10-26 during the pre-pandemic (Jan. 1, 2017-Feb. 29, 2020) and pandemic periods (Mar. 1, 2020-Jun. 30, 2022). We used Poisson generalized estimating equations models to predict expected overall and monthly rates of eating disorder-related ED visits and hospitalizations among those with a new and pre-existing eating disorder. Results Compared with expected rates, ED visits increased during the pandemic among only adolescents with new eating disorders (adolescent RR 2.12, 95% CI [1.84,2.45]). Additionally, both adolescents and YA with pre-existing eating disorders experienced an increase in ED visits (RR 2.78, 95% CI [2.28, 3.38] and RR 1.52, 95% CI [1.25, 1.85], respectively). Similarly, hospitalizations for new presentations increased solely for adolescents (RR 1.48, 95% CI [1.34,1.64]), while hospitalizations for pre-existing eating disorders increased for both adolescents (RR 1.82, 95% CI [1.43,2.32]) and YA (RR 1.12, 95% CI [1.01,1.23]). Conclusions There was an increase in acute care visits for eating disorders during the pandemic, especially among adolescents and YA with pre-existing conditions. This differentiation is important in advancing our understanding of the pandemic's effects on adolescents and YA and the healthcare system receiving them.

Frances McCarty, Ben Rogers, Jessie Parker et al.

The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) has a data linkage program that combines national survey data with key sources of health outcomes and health care utilization. The overall accuracy and quality of a data linkage depends on the quality of the data fields. This applies in a variety of data linkage methods, including clear text and privacy preserving record linkage. Data pre-processing and cleaning are essential to address data quality issues in most linkage tasks. Automating data cleaning prevents time-consuming manual reviews particularly when linkages involve a large number of records. For some data fields, these activities are relatively straightforward. For example, dates typically have a limited number of plausible values that make checking and cleaning relatively easy and straightforward. Unique identifiers (e.g., social security number) often conform to some set format or have restrictions on the values that would be expected. Other data fields such as first name and last name present greater challenges with respect to automating the cleaning process. For some data sources, first name and last name fields may contain non-name text that needs to be identified and removed. In this project, we examined the use of an artificial intelligence (AI) based large language model (LLM) and a simple rule-based algorithm to identify non-name text in name fields that should be removed prior to linkage. We also investigated the impact of automated name clean-up algorithms on the quality of an example linkage.

Clare J Padfield, Kate F. Carstens, J. Carstens et al.

Globally, 60% of species in the order Psittaciformes are experiencing population declines. Understanding demographic and health trends in populations is vital for the prioritisation of limited conservation resources. The Cape Parrot Poicephalus robustus is a South African endemic forest species that is endangered by habitat degradation and Psittacine Beak and Feather Disease (PBFD). In the Amathole region of the Eastern Cape province, Cape Parrots gather in large numbers every autumn to feed at a particular orchard of Pecan trees Carya illinoinensis. This annual event is an opportunity for researchers to assess trends in a population that does not otherwise typically form large flocks. We used a novel, non-invasive method of flock photography analysis between 2017 and 2022 to assess the demographics and PBFD symptoms of the population. A mean of 439 ± SD 127 Cape Parrots visited the orchard on the peak day each year, with 1.2 males per female and 3 adults per juvenile overall. Proportions of juveniles fluctuated between extremes of 70% in 2019 and < 4% in 2020. PBFD symptoms increased markedly in the food-scarce year of 2019, with a gradual recovery seen in the years following. Roosting numbers were also tracked monthly from 2018 to 2022 to indicate local population fluctuations in the study area around Hogsback. An average of 112 ± SD 31 Cape Parrots roosted there, with roost counts notably higher from January to June, bolstered by newly-fledged juveniles prior to their dispersal. This study demonstrates the use of flock photographs as an effective, non-invasive tool to assess the demographics and health of an avian population.

Vanessa C. K. Terrell, J. Maerz, Nathan J. Engbrecht et al.

We used data from a five-year study at two focal breeding wetlands of a single Crawfish Frog (Rana areolata) population to demonstrate the relative importance and potential of tadpole survival as a target for population management. We concurrently estimated 11 vital rates in the field and used a females-only matrix projection model to estimate elasticities of demographic rates. We then simulated stochastic population dynamics at each wetland with and without immigration to estimate the intrinsic capacity for each focal breeding wetland to sustain a Crawfish Frog breeding population and the likelihood of breeding population persistence at each wetland. Elasticity of tadpole survival was second only to juvenile survival elasticity and 1.34–2.04 times greater than adult survival elasticity. Projections indicated that the Crawfish Frog population was not at risk of extinction but only one breeding site was capable of self-sustaining a breeding population. Because of low tadpole survival, the other breeding site was completely dependent on immigration to persist and was functioning as a population sink. Despite higher variability compared to terrestrial vital rates, larval survival did have a strong effect on population growth. Tadpole survival at the more productive breeding site was density dependent and likely related to wetland vegetation and predator and competitor abundance. Two additional findings were that annual survival of frogs following their first known breeding event was 48% lower compared to survival of frogs that had bred in two or more prior years, and adult temporary emigration from the breeding population was moderately high. Our study demonstrates the benefits of using population models that integrate density-dependent processes, temporary emigration from the breeding population, and state-specific adult survival, to identify larval habitats that function as population sinks and limit current population size and persistence probability. We contend that tadpole survival is an important and feasible habitat management target within broader conservation strategies for Crawfish Frogs and other amphibian species.

J. Eisaguirre, Perry J. Williams, Julia C. Brockman et al.

Rapidly advancing animal telemetry technologies paired with new statistical models can provide insight into the behaviour of otherwise unobservable free‐living animals. Changes in behaviour apparent from pairing telemetry with statistical models often occur as animals undertake key life‐history activities, such as reproduction. For many species that are secretive or occupy remote areas, these life‐history events are difficult to detect with conventional survey techniques, and consequently, vital rates are difficult to estimate. We present a hierarchical modelling framework, which integrates movement data observed via animal‐borne telemetry and optional, infrequent survey data, to estimate individual‐ and population‐level reproductive success. The approach combines a mechanistic movement model and survival model, and allows for assessing the effects of hypothesized individual and environmental covariates on reproductive success. We first tested our approach with simulated data, and then applied it to movement data from migratory golden eagles (Aquila chrysaetos) breeding in southcentral Alaska across four breeding seasons. We show that results supported our biological hypotheses that changes in movement coincided with the timing of reproductive failures, and that changes in movement could be used to assess breeding success (and failure) at the individual and population levels. The analysis also provided evidence of inter‐annual variation in population‐level nest success and the timing of nesting failures. This new approach is adaptable to many species that care for young and can be tracked with telemetry devices, and can provide not only individual‐level information useful for testing ecological hypotheses, but estimates of demographic parameters that can directly inform conservation and management if tagged animals are representative of the population.

A. Tkachenko

The article explores significant milestones in the history of demography and population statistics, encompassing institutions, events, and notable figures. It delves into the biographies of scientists of the past who made noteworthy contributions to the study of various aspects of population issues. Reflecting on the lives and work of these great scientists is not just a tribute to their descendants; history should be revisited and reinterpreted by new generations, a right we can rightfully expect. The article also highlights the anniversaries of key publications and conferences; whose significance becomes more apparent when viewed from a distance.

Matthew Mould, Davide Gerosa, Marco Dall'Amico et al.

Gravitational-wave observations have revealed sources whose unusual properties challenge our understanding of compact-binary formation. Inferring the formation processes that are best able to reproduce such events may therefore yield key astrophysical insights. A common approach is to count the fraction of synthetic events from a simulated population that are consistent with some real event. Though appealing owing to its simplicity, this approach is flawed because it neglects the full posterior information, depends on an ad-hoc region that defines consistency, and fails for high signal-to-noise detections. We point out that a statistically consistent solution is to compute the posterior odds between two simulated populations, which crucially is a relative measure, and show how to include the effect of observational biases by conditioning on source detectability. Applying the approach to several gravitational-wave events and simulated populations, we assess the degree to which we can conclude model preference not just between distinct formation pathways but also between subpopulations within a given pathway.

Анна Александровна Эндрюшко

Статья посвящена изучению отношения иммигрантов из постсоветских стран в России к ценностям индивидуального выбора (показателям сексуальной либерализации) на примере допустимости разводов и сексуальных отношений до брака, а также их сравнению с аналогичными установками россиян. Эмпирическая база исследования представлена опросом мигрантов из постсоветских стран в России (2020 г., 700 респондентов), а также данными седьмой волны Всемирного исследования ценностей (2017 г.). Для выявления факторов, влияющих на консервативность взглядов в отношении разводов и добрачных сексуальных отношений использовано регрессионное моделирование. Показано, что и для иммигрантов, и для россиян предикторами нетолерантного отношения к данным событиям являются пол (для россиян частично), возраст, уровень образования, положение на рынке труда (для иммигрантов частично), семейное положение, религия. Материальное благополучие для обоих групп не имеет связи с изучаемыми представлениями. Расширенные спецификации регрессии для иммигрантов позволяют говорить, что давность приезда положительно связана только с либеральностью взглядов на допустимость развода, но не добрачного секса. Вместе с тем желание связать свою жизнь с Россией уменьшает вероятность крайне консервативных взглядов на оба явления. Формирование российской идентичности – предиктор более либерального отношения к разводам, а сильная этническая и религиозная идентичность – фактор нетерпимости и к разводам, и к добрачным сексуальным отношениям. Делается вывод, что предикторами трансформации ценностных ориентаций иммигрантов в России выступают не длительность проживания и экономическое благополучие, но уровень образования, формирование чувства общности с принимающим обществом и желание связать дальнейшую жизнь с Россией.

Peter Onyisi, Delon Shen, Jesse Thaler

In this paper, we compare several event classification architectures defined on the point cloud representation of collider events. These approaches, which are based on the frameworks of deep sets and edge convolutions, circumvent many of the difficulties associated with traditional feature engineering. To benchmark our architectures against more traditional event classification strategies, we perform a case study involving Higgs boson decays to tau leptons. We find a 2.5 times increase in performance compared to a baseline ATLAS analysis with engineered features. Our point cloud architectures can be viewed as simplified versions of graph neural networks, where each particle in the event corresponds to a graph node. In our case study, we find the best balance of performance and computational cost for simple pairwise architectures, which are based on learned edge features.

In December 2021, we published statistical research on Administrative Data Based Population Estimates (ABPEs) for Scotland’s population in 2016, 2017 and 2018.  This work was developed as part of a project to consider how administrative data could be used to support Scotland’s Census. Following the governance process, administrative datasets were processed and de-identified, before being transferred to Scotland’s National Safe Haven for linking and analysis.  The datasets used include data from health, the electoral register, vital events registrations, and education.  The methodology used several linking variables so data could be linked, even without exact agreement between records.  Records from across the data sources were resolved into individuals using these links.  Business rules then indicated which individuals to include in Scotland’s Integrated Demographic Dataset (SIDD).  The ABPEs were then produced from this and compared with the official mid-year population estimates (MYEs) to determine success. On aggregate, the population estimates from the ABPEs are very similar to the MYEs, differing by less than 0.5 per cent in each year.  When broken down further, larger differences occur with ABPEs having more males and fewer people aged over 65 when compared with the official statistics. A notable difference between the two is for males aged between 30 and 65 in deprived areas, with ABPEs up to 20% higher than the MYEs. These differences by deprivation are smaller for other age ranges and for females. The ABPEs tend to be higher than official estimates for urban areas, and lower for rural areas.  Differences for each local authority area range from 5 per cent below to 4 per cent above official estimates. It is therefore possible to produce Scottish population estimates purely from administrative sources that roughly agree with MYEs. Further investigation will help understand the differences for particular groups, and will be explored in future years by comparing ABPEs with the 2022 Census.

T. Jankowski

Vital records are one of the main sources providing insight into the demographic past. For most of the nineteenth century, however, the degree of under-registration of vital events among Jews was much higher than among non-Jews. These omissions undermine the credibility of demographic data on fertility and mortality published in contemporary statistical yearbooks. The analysis shows that the male-to-female ratio at birth aggregated on a regional level reveals the highest under-registration among Jews in the Russian Empire, including Congress Poland, until World War I. On the other hand, Prussian registration covers the Jewish population most completely and already in the 1820s shows no signs of under-registration. Despite the general low quality of registration systems, records from selected individual towns still pass quality tests. Top-down imposition of the registration duties, corporatism, defective legal regulations, bureaucratic inefficiency and personal characteristics of civil registrars were the main reasons for under-registration.

Karn N. Watcharasupat, Thi Ngoc Tho Nguyen, Ngoc Khanh Nguyen et al.

The Sørensen--Dice Coefficient has recently seen rising popularity as a loss function (also known as Dice loss) due to its robustness in tasks where the number of negative samples significantly exceeds that of positive samples, such as semantic segmentation, natural language processing, and sound event detection. Conventional training of polyphonic sound event detection systems with binary cross-entropy loss often results in suboptimal detection performance as the training is often overwhelmed by updates from negative samples. In this paper, we investigated the effect of the Dice loss, intra- and inter-modal transfer learning, data augmentation, and recording formats, on the performance of polyphonic sound event detection systems with multichannel inputs. Our analysis showed that polyphonic sound event detection systems trained with Dice loss consistently outperformed those trained with cross-entropy loss across different training settings and recording formats in terms of F1 score and error rate. We achieved further performance gains via the use of transfer learning and an appropriate combination of different data augmentation techniques.

Ataru Tanikawa, Takashi Yoshida, Tomoya Kinugawa et al.

We investigate the formation of merging binary black holes (BHs) through isolated binary evolution, performing binary population synthesis calculations covering an unprecedentedly wide metallicity range of Population (Pop) I, II, III, and extremely metal-poor (EMP) binary stars. We find that the predicted merger rate density and primary BH mass ($m_1$) distribution are consistent with the gravitational wave (GW) observations. Notably, Pop III and EMP ($< 10^{-2}$ $Z_\odot$) binary stars yield most of the pair instability (PI) mass gap events with $m_1 = 65$--$130$ $M_\odot$. Pop III binary stars contribute more to the PI mass gap events with increasing redshift, and all the PI mass gap events have the Pop III origin at redshifts $\gtrsim 8$. Our result can be assessed by future GW observations in the following two points. First, there are no binary BHs with $m_1=100$--$130$ $M_\odot$ in our result, and thus the $m_1$ distribution should suddenly drop in the range of $m_1=100$--$130$ $M_\odot$. Second, the PI mass gap event rate should increase toward higher redshift up to $\sim 11$, since those events mainly originate from the Pop III binary stars. We find that the following three assumptions are needed to reproduce the current GW observations: a top-heavy stellar initial mass function and the presence of close binary stars for Pop III and EMP binary stars, and inefficient convective overshoot in the main-sequence phase of stellar evolution. Without any of the above, the number of PI mass gap events becomes too low to reproduce current GW observations.