Hasil untuk "Demography. Population. Vital events"

Isaure Delaporte, Andrew Ibbetson, Hill Kulu

BACKGROUND: The fertility of immigrants and their descendants is shaped by many factors. Survival and event history techniques are methods commonly used to study the determinants of individuals’ childbearing behaviour. Yet, machine learning techniques such as survival trees and tree ensembles are a useful alternative to classical methods. OBJECTIVE: This paper analyses the predictors of having a first, second, and third birth among immigrants and their descendants in France. METHODS: This study applies random survival forest (RSF) to longitudinal data from the Trajectories and Origins survey. RESULTS: Our findings illustrate the potential of machine learning techniques in two ways. First, RSF allows us to identify the most important predictors of a life event. Our results show that predictors differ by parity: Educational level is the most important predictor of having a first child, whereas parents’ family size is the most important predictor of having a second and third child. Second, RSF allows us to easily detect and visualize interactions. For instance, our results of a four-way interaction show that highly educated migrants are closer to the native population in their childbearing behaviour than migrants with low education. CONTRIBUTION: Our application of RSF to the analysis of immigrant fertility behaviour shows that the method can easily be applied in life course research and that research on migrant fertility should pay more attention to how education shapes childbearing patterns among minority populations.

Christian M. Rogerson, Jayne M. Rogerson

Niche tourism is an important focus in current tourism scholarship. Although the international literature on niche tourism is relatively recent in origin it must be acknowledged that niche tourism is not a new phenomenon and that many types of niche tourism have a long history. The aim in this paper is to address a knowledge gap in current niche tourism literature by examining its under-researched past with a case study of recreational trout fishing in South Africa. Using archival sources this study documents the emergence of trout fishing in South Africa and gives historical insight into its origins as a niche form of rural tourism. The popularisation of recreational trout fishing was given an important boost by the infrastructure and agency of the South African Railways especially its publicity and marketing material. Enhanced automobilities and the emergence of early drive tourism, a by-product of improvements which occurred from the 1930s in South Africa’s road network, further boosted the growth of trout fishing as a niche in rural tourism.

Eva Bernhardt, Frances Goldscheider, Malgorzata Switek

OBJECTIVE: This paper examines how family-building transitions (union formation and first birth) affect the attitudes of Swedes toward work and parenthood. The literature finds that these life course transitions have a traditionalizing effect on gender roles. Is this also the case in Sweden, one of the most gender-equal countries in the world? METHODS: Our study uses the longitudinal Young Adult Panel Study database. We run first-difference OLS regressions on the relationship between family-building transitions and work and parenthood attitudes, distinguishing men from women, and those with more education from those with less. RESULTS: We find that family transitions do slightly traditionalize attitudes toward work and parenthood, but differences by gender and education are very small. CONTRIBUTION: The overall pattern is one of striking similarity between men and women, suggesting that the gender revolution is well advanced in Sweden; traditional gender differences remain primarily among those with less education.

Michelle Jamieson

Objectives The Nursing and Midwifery Council (NMC) require data to be collected to enable regulatory functions, with nurses re-registering every 3-years, which provides a powerful picture of the workforce. This could answer questions to inform the NMC, as well as policy makers. Linked to other data, opportunities for impact are considerable. Approach This pilot project, funded by the Economic and Social Research Council, aims to use NMC data captured at two time points – March 2018  to give a snapshot before the pandemic, and March 2021 during the pandemic - in research that enables a better understanding of the dynamics of the nursing profession in the UK, pre- and hopefully moving towards post-pandemic. An observational study using anonymised administrative data collected and held by the NMC as part of the registration and revalidation process on approximately 700, 000 registrants across the United Kingdom. Results This emerging pilot study will report the initial results as to likelihood of ceasing registration by relation age, gender, and geographically. Conclusion This pilot study will give an indication of the groups within the nursing profession who are at particular risk of leaving. Findings will provide an opportunity to understand the potential of NMC registrant data to enable future studies into the workforce as well as workforce policy implications.

Gabriela Marise de Oliveira Bonifácio, Laura Lídia Rodriguez Wong

Apresenta-se a evolução do padrão reprodutivo de diferentes países da América Latina com níveis de fecundidade distintos, procurando entender se a Região está tornando-se mais homogênea em termos de comportamento reprodutivo. Utilizam-se como indicadores desse padrão: proporção de mulheres sem filhos, idade mediana à primeira união e ao ter o primeiro filho e presença de filho ao usar contracepção pela primeira vez. Os dados provêm de pesquisas sobre saúde reprodutiva de Brasil, Colômbia, El Salvador, Peru, e República Dominicana em três pontos no tempo: décadas de 80 e 90 e início dos anos 2000 segundo idade e escolaridade. Os resultados mostram que as diferenças estão diminuindo entre os países com a proximidade dos níveis de fecundidade, mas ainda permanecem brechas por escolaridade que sugerem ampliar-se dentro dos países. Os resultados oferecem importantes insumos para entender os trajetos delineados por diferentes gerações nos países da Região no que se refere ao padrão reprodutivo.

Agnieszka Chło´n-Domi´nczak, Anita Abramowska-Kmon, Irena E. Kotowska et al.

Theodore Lianos

Environmental degradation and inequality of income and wealth are two major global problems at the present time. This paper suggests that a steady state economy offers solutions for both problems. It argues that if the world population is drastically reduced and remains constant at a low level ecological balance can be achieved and, at the same time, income distribution will be greatly improved. The basis of this argument is that a smaller population will reduce the use of natural resources for production and consumption and at the same time reduce the supply of labor and thus increase wages. Also, a brief review of the idea of the steady state economy from the ancient philosophers to modern writers is provided.

Fernando Ruiz-Vallejo

El presente artículo compara la duración y el riesgo de disolución de cuatro tipos de uniones: los matrimonios y las uniones libres en el caso de las parejas de distinto sexo, y las uniones de parejas del mismo sexo, tanto de hombres como de mujeres. Los datos provienen de la Encuesta Nacional de Demografía y Salud (ENDS) de 2015, en la cual se registran 25.267 primeras uniones de mujeres de 15 a 49 años, y de 20.702 hombres de 15 a 59 años. Del total de primeras uniones analizadas (45.969), 781 corresponden a parejas del mismo sexo y 45.188 a parejas de distinto sexo. Se aplican técnicas estadísticas de historia de eventos para estimar la supervivencia de las uniones, y modelos de regresión multivariados de tipo exponencial constante a intervalos para la comparación del riesgo de ruptura. Los resultados señalan que, después de controlar por variables sociodemográficas relevantes, en comparación con los matrimonios, las uniones libres de distinto sexo tienen el mayor riesgo de disolución, seguidas de las uniones de parejas del mismo sexo de hombres y del mismo sexo de mujeres.

Michel Guillot, Myriam Khlat, Matthew Wallace

<b>Background</b>: France has a large population of second-generation immigrants (i.e., native-born children of immigrants) who are known to experience important socioeconomic disparities by country of origin. The extent to which they also experience disparities in mortality, however, has not been previously examined. <b>Methods</b>: We used a nationally representative sample of individuals 18 to 64 years old in 1999 with mortality follow-up via linked death records until 2010. We compared mortality levels for second-generation immigrants with their first-generation counterparts and with the reference (neither first- nor second-generation) population using mortality hazard ratios as well as probabilities of dying between age 18 and 65. We also adjusted hazard ratios using educational attainment reported at baseline. <b>Results</b>: We found a large amount of excess mortality among second-generation males of North African origin compared to the reference population with no migrant background. This excess mortality was not present among second-generation males of southern European origin, for whom we instead found a mortality advantage, nor among North African-origin males of the first-generation. This excess mortality remained large and significant after adjusting for educational attainment. <b>Contribution</b>: In these first estimates of mortality among second-generation immigrants in France, males of North African origin stood out as a subgroup experiencing a large amount of excess mortality. This finding adds a public health dimension to the various disadvantages already documented for this subgroup. Overall, our results highlight the importance of second-generation status as a significant and previously unknown source of health disparity in France.

José Alberto Lara Pulido, Gabriela Estrada Díaz, Juan Carlos Zentella Gómez et al.

La Zona Metropolitana del Valle de México (ZMVM) ha experimentado una expansión no proporcional al crecimiento poblacional. Entre otras modalidades de poblamiento, la construcción de grandes conjuntos habitacionales periféricos propicia esa expansión, imponiendo costos individuales y sociales. Se revisan aquí las características de la expansión urbana en la ZMVM y las condiciones de producción de vivienda social periférica, la pérdida de ingreso de los individuos derivada de la distancia a los centros de trabajo y, a través de un modelo de precios hedónicos, se estima el rol de esa distancia en el diferencial de precios entre la vivienda periférica y la intraurbana.

Martha de Alba González

El presente artículo se sitúa en una perspectiva ecológica del envejecimiento, en la que se considera que este proceso no sólo depende de aspectos psicosociales sino también de la relación que las personas mantienen con su entorno de vida (físico, social, histórico y cultural). El texto tiene como propósito analizar el aspecto subjetivo de la calidad de vida a través del estudio de las representaciones sociales de la ciudad y del barrio o colonia, construidas por una muestra de residentes de cuatro colonias (diferenciadas socioeconómicamente) de la Ciudad de México. Es un estudio de corte cualitativo, basado en entrevistas a profundidad y observaciones de campo. Los resultados muestran que las representaciones sociales positivas de la ciudad, asociadas con el apego a la misma y con los espacios que favorecen un envejecimiento activo, contribuyen a proporcionar calidad de vida en la urbe. Por el contrario, las representaciones sociales negativas de la ciudad, vinculadas con problemáticas urbanas, políticas y sociales, generan un sentimiento de fragilidad en los espacios urbanos que disminuye la calidad de vida.

Livia Elisa Ortensi, Patrizia Farina, Alessio Menonna

<b>Background</b>: Female Genital Mutilation/Cutting (FGM/C) is an emerging topic in immigrant countries as a consequence of the increasing proportion of African women in overseas communities. <b>Objective</b>: While the prevalence of FGM/C is routinely measured in practicing countries, the prevalence of the phenomenon in western countries is substantially unknown, as no standardized methods exist yet for immigrant countries. The aim of this paper is to present an improved method of indirect estimation of the prevalence of FGM/C among first generation migrants based on a migrant selection hypothesis. A criterion to assess reliability of indirect estimates is also provided. <b>Methods</b>: The method is based on data from Demographic Health Surveys (DHS) and Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS). Migrants' Selection Hypothesis is used to correct national prevalence estimates and obtain an improved estimation of prevalence among overseas communities. <b>Results</b>: The application of the selection hypothesis modifies national estimates, usually predicting a lower occurrence of FGM/C among immigrants than in their respective practicing countries. A comparison of direct and indirect estimations confirms that the method correctly predicts the direction of the variation in the expected prevalence and satisfactorily approximates direct estimates. <b>Conclusions</b>: Given its wide applicability, this method would be a useful instrument to estimate FGM/C occurrence among first generation immigrants and provide corresponding support for policies in countries where information from ad hoc surveys is unavailable.

Tomasz M. Jankowski

The article is the first part of statistical analysis of marriage records of Jewish people from Piotrk&oacute;w Trybunalski for the period of 1808&ndash;1870. The author rises issues related to the age of entering into a marriage taking into consideration: social and economicfactors, permanent celibacy, prospective spouses&rsquo; origins, seasonality, and remarriage patterns. One of the most significant conclusions is the age of concluding a marriage which is the first one for both parties, it is assigned about 20 for women and 22 for men &ndash; distinctly lower than in non-Jewish urban communities in the 19th century, like in Piotrk&oacute;w Trybunalski. The author points out diversity in matrimonial customs among Jewish communities of Poland of that time. The statistical evidence from Piotrk&oacute;w Trybunalski does not provide full explanation of the observed differences. Both frequent marriages of widowers with single women, and the duration of widowhood among the group being studied fit into a model investigated in other (non-Jewish) communities, and are contrary to traditional Judaism recommendations.

Julieta Pérez Amador

This work builds on the idea that the transition to marriage is influenced simultaneously by social context, family context, and individual’s early biography and socioeconomic status. Unlike previous studies that examine the transition to marriage in Mexico, I consider theoretically and analyze empirically the role of intergenerational influences on marriage timing. Using data from the National Family Planning Survey, I estimated a set of nested discrete-time hazard models to evaluate the effects of mothers’ marriage age on children’s transition to marriage. I find that children of mothers who married young enter into marriage earlier than children of mothers who delayed marriage. This relationship persists after controlling for important socioeconomic factors. In fact, the effect of mothers’ age at marriage on children’s age at marriage is larger than the effect of mother’s education. I also find this relationship to be similar for both sons and daughters, suggesting that family influences are a key aspect of the transition to marriage in Mexico.

Marinković Ivan

Cause mortality of a population is an important segment in the analysis of mortality, because it sums up all factors which influence death indicators on a certain territory in a direct way. At the beginning of the 21st century, the situation is not the same everywhere in the world and countries do not share a unique pattern of the causes of deaths. Infectious and parasitic diseases are still dominant in underdeveloped countries, while the leading causes of deaths in developed countries are circulatory disorders and neoplasm. Cardiovascular diseases are the cause of 29% of total mortality in the world, infectious cause 19%, tumors 13% and violent deaths about 9% (based on data from 2002). This paper gives an analysis of the spatial distribution of the leading causes of deaths using the geographic information system (Arc-View GIS), based on the ratio of total mortality and death rates of the population from a certain group of diseases. Based on data analysis, a hypothesis has been set on the significance of the regional factor in forming a picture of population mortality according to causes of death. A regional factor implies a set of physical geographical as well as general social specificities of a certain region which form a pattern of population behavior. Based on death rates, cardiovascular diseases are represented the most in the mortality rates of countries in Eastern and Southeastern Europe. Infectious diseases imperil the population in the Sub-Saharan region of Africa; tumors are most common in Europe, North America and Japan. The highest rates of violent deaths are in countries of the former Soviet Union and the Sub- Saharan zone. Classifying death rates according to leading causes of death represents a prerequisite for forming a final picture of mortality according to causes of death in the world at the beginning of the 'new century'. The method of gathering together the causes of death is possible by applying a statistical model of classifying data (cluster analysis). The countries of the world have been classified into eight clusters according to the leading causes of death for the year 2002. Developed countries have been classified into three clusters based on this analysis. The Arab world has been singled out in a separate cluster, and the specific traits of Middle Asian countries also deserved separate classification. Countries of the Indian subcontinent and South East Asia, as well as Sub-Saharan Africa and South America formed regions on the basis of a combination of the leading causes of death. As opposed to epidemic transition, which tried to determine a uniform trend of the causes of death for all countries of the world, the cluster data analysis shows the significance of the regional factor when forming the depiction on the leading causes of death. Modeling population mortality based on data on causes of deaths structure bears much information, primarily in which direction should the health policies of a country flow and what are the priorities for decreasing mortality and increasing life expectancy. .

Marit R&#xf8;nsen, Kari Skrede

The collective evidence of past research indicates that Nordic social welfare policies have had positive impacts on fertility. Yet, some patterns cause concern. One concern is that the good recuperation at cohort level partly is explained by relatively high fertility levels among women educated for female-dominated jobs with extensive part-time work. One may therefore question whether the present development is compatible with gender equality. Another concern is a more socially selective entry into fatherhood. Based on updated analyses of female as well as male fertility trends in Norway we address these issues, focussing especially on associations with educational level and field.

Leonardo H. G. Fígoli, Dimitri Fazito

Este trabajo pretende discutir algunos aspectos de método en el mapeo de redes sociales con migrantes indígenas, a partir de una investigación etnográfica realizada con un grupo de migrantes indios (Alto Río Negro) y residentes en la ciudad de Manaus (Amazonia). El trazado de las redes sociales fue una herramienta crucial en campo, permitiendo identificar los individuos dispersados en el lugar de destino de la migración, obtener datos sobre los modos de desplazamiento o instalación de los migrantes en el medio urbano. Si, por una parte, se mostró un importante instrumento de investigación, se reveló también como noción esencial desde el punto de vista teórico, ya que las propias redes diseñadas constituían una fuerte evidencia de la cohesión social, de la manutención y reelaboración de los lazos étnicos en el contexto urbano. Las redes mapeadas, por ejemplo, revelaron la maleabilidad de las fronteras étnicas diseñadas por los grupos, resultado de las relaciones sociales desarrolladas durante el trayecto migratorio, al paso que nos obligaba a aprehender el fenómeno étnico desde el punto de vista de una genuina antropología relacional. Hoy, las nuevas tecnologías informatizadas permiten la mejor visualización y el análisis más detallado de las redes sociales (ARS), que el que fue posible realizar manualmente en la época de la investigación (1980). Los nuevos recursos hacen aún más importante esa herramienta en la investigación etnográfica. Discutir las múltiples posibilidades y aplicaciones en la investigación de flujos migratorios indígenas es lo que proponemos en este trabajo.<br>Este trabalho pretende discutir alguns aspectos metodológicos do mapeamento de redes sociais com migrantes indígenas, a partir de uma pesquisa etnográfica realizada junto a um grupo de migrantes índios (Alto Rio Negro) e moradores de Manaus (Amazônia). O desenho das redes sociais constituiu um instrumento de campo, permitindo identificar os indivíduos dispersos no local de destino da migração, obter dados sobre os modos de deslocamento ou de instalação dos migrantes, na área urbana. Além de, por um lado, mostrar-se importante instrumento de pesquisa, também revelou-se um conceito fundamental, do ponto de vista teórico, pois as próprias redes desenhadas constituíam forte evidência de coesão social, manutenção e reelaboração dos laços étnicos, no contexto urbano. As redes mapeadas, por exemplo, revelaram a maleabilidade das fronteiras étnicas desenhadas pelos grupos, resultado das relações sociais desenvolvidas durante o percurso migratório, o que nos obrigou a apreender o fenômeno étnico desde a perspectiva de uma genuína antropologia relacional. Hoje, as novas tecnologias informatizadas permitem melhor visualização e análise mais detalhada das redes sociais (ARS), do que foi possível realizar manualmente, na época da pesquisa (1980). Os novos recursos tornam ainda mais relevante essa ferramenta na pesquisa etnográfica. A proposta deste trabalho é discutir suas possibilidades e aplicações no estudo de fluxos migratórios indígenas.<br>This article discusses several methodological aspects of the work of mapping social networks of migrant Brazilian Indians, based on an ethnographic study carried out on a group of migrant Indians (from the Upper Rio Negro, in Amazonian Brazil) and dwellers in the city of Manaus, also in the Amazon). The characteristics of the social networks of this population constituted an instrument for field study, making it possible to identify the individuals scattered throughout their destination area and obtain data on their systems of displacement and settlement in the urban area. This tool proved, on the one hand, to be an important research instrument and, on the other, a basic concept from the theoretical point of view. The networks themselves were seen to have strong social cohesion as they dealt with the maintenance and reorganization of their ethnic ties in an urban context. For example, the networks we charted indicated the malleability of ethnic boundaries established by the groups as the result of social relationships developed during the migration period. This obliged the researchers to apprehend the ethnic phenomena involved from the perspective of a true relational anthropology. Today new computerized technologies allow better visualization and more detailed analysis of social networks than was possible at the time of the study, in 1980. The new resources prove that this tool is even more significant in ethnographic research. The objective of the article is to discuss the tool's possibilities and applications in the study of migratory flows of Brazilian Indians.

Frank Furedi

Marcos Roberto Gonzaga, Carl Paul Schmertmann

Abstract High variability in recorded vital events creates serious problems for small-area mortality estimation by age and sex. Many existing approaches to fitting local mortality schedules, including those most often used in Brazil, estimate rates by making rigid mathematical assumptions about local age patterns. Such methods assume that all areas within a larger area (for example, microregions within a mesoregion) have identically-shaped log mortality schedules by age. We propose a more flexible statistical estimation method that combines Poisson regression with the TOPALS relational model (DE BEER, 2012). We use the new method to estimate age-specific mortality rates in Brazilian small areas (states, mesoregions, microregions, and municipalities) in 2010. Results for Minas Gerais show notable differences in the age patterns of mortality between adjacent small areas, demonstrating the advantages of using a flexible functional form in regression models.

Patricia Noemí Vargas Becerra, Julia Isabel Flores Dávila

El presente trabajo sintetiza los resultados de la investigación Perfiles de los Indígenas en Ciudades de México diseñada para conocer las características demográficas, sus condiciones de vida, la persistencia cultural y la cultura de la identidad de los mazahuas, otomíes, triquis, mayas y zapotecos en tres configuraciones urbanas distintas: la gran metrópoli, la ciudad de México y su zona metropolitana; zonas industriales como el corredor industrial Minatitlán-Veracruz, y una ciudad turística: Cancún, Quintana Roo.