Conservation translocations and reintroductions are widely used to improve conservation outcomes for declining species. Reintroductions are unlikely to be successful if the threats that led to the extirpation of the focal species, such as non‐native predators, have not been ameliorated. The non‐native brown treesnake (Boiga irregularis) was introduced to Guam in the mid‐20th century and has devastated the native lizard fauna of this Pacific Island. Native lizard populations persist on small islands near Guam and could act as sources for reintroductions. Recently, trapping methods have been shown to greatly reduce the density of brown treesnakes, raising the possibility that native lizards could be reintroduced where brown treesnake abundance is controlled. Here we developed demographic models for four lizard species present on Guam to assess their validity as a trial for reintroducing species to meet native species recovery goals. These four species vary in their size, activity, and susceptibility to predation by brown treesnakes. We used periodic matrix models to simulate changes in lizard vital rates driven by the wet‐dry seasonal cycle found on Guam. We found that the release of 60 individuals of each species was likely to result in successful reintroduction outcomes provided adult survival in the wild is similar to rates estimated based on life history parameters. Demographic models can be used to forecast reintroduction outcomes, including predicting the probability of success and evaluating causes of failure in the event that populations do not establish.
Социальная политика российского государства ориентирована на обеспечение активного долголетия, достойного образа жизни граждан. Люди пожилого возраста составляют особую демографическую группу, для которой критически важным является обеспечение здоровьесбережения, поддержание физической и интеллектуальной сохранности, содействие сохранению социально-психологического благополучия. В данном аспекте мощным ресурсным потенциалом обладают средства физической культуры, в частности, рекреационной физической культуры. Включение людей пожилого возраста в физкультурно-рекреационную активность, таким образом, представляется значимой государственной задачей, решение которой обеспечит формирование мотивов и навыков здорового образа жизни данной категории населения. При этом известно, что двигательная активность, как любая активность человека, детерминируется комплексом субъективных и объективных факторов, специфических для разных социально-демографических групп. В статье уточнена актуальность решения проблемы организации двигательной активности в рамках формирования мотивации здорового образа жизни людей пожилого возраста. Раскрыты теоретически и эмпирически выявленные основания (факторы, стимулы, условия) для проектирования системы деятельности по включению людей пожилого возраста в физкультурно-рекреационную деятельность для формирования у них мотивации к здоровому образу жизни. Изложены ведущие компоненты деятельности, а именно: мотивирующее, организационное и психорегулирующее просвещение; привлечение к планированию и проектированию физкультурно-оздоровительных, физкультурно-рекреационных, спортивно-массовых и пр. школьных и семейных мероприятий; собственно участие в этих мероприятиях. The social policy of the Russian state prioritizes the promotion of active longevity and a high quality of life for its citizens, with a specific focus on the elderly demographic. It is crucial to safeguard the health, physical and intellectual well-being, and socio-psychological stability of this group. Recreational physical culture, within this context, holds significant potential. Inclusion of the elderly in physical and recreational activities represents a vital state initiative aimed at cultivating motivation and skills for a healthy lifestyle within this population. Physical activity, like any human activity, is influenced by a multitude of subjective and objective factors that are unique to various socio-demographic groups. This article underscores the importance of addressing the organization of physical activities as a means to instill motivation for a healthy lifestyle among the elderly. The study identifies theoretical and empirical foundations (factors, incentives, and conditions) for designing a comprehensive system of activities tailored to engage the elderly in physical and recreational pursuits, thereby nurturing their motivation for a healthy lifestyle. The primary components of this approach include motivational, organizational, and psychoregulatory education, active involvement in planning and executing physical education and health programs, participation in mass sports, as well as other school and family events.
Weekes-Shackelford, V. A., & Shackelford, T. K. (eds.). (2021). The Oxford Handbook of Evolutionary Psychology and Parenting. New York: Oxford University Press.
Social Sciences, Demography. Population. Vital events
The article discusses the process of converting industrial heritage for new uses in a large Central European metropolitan area (the case of GZM: Górnośląsko-Zagłębiowska Metropolia – Metropolis GZM). The aim of the research is to investigate the distribution of industrial heritage sites and to identify the factors influencing their current use. The methods include desk research (analysis of documents and database queries), field research and spatial analysis. The research has found 119 preserved industrial heritage sites, whose distribution reflects the historical spatial pattern of industrialisation and the priorities of the restructuring policy. To date, 70 sites have been converted, with commercial and institutional uses dominating and residential and recreational uses being much less common. Although minor differences in the average distance of industrial heritage sites from the city centre, shopping centre, university, train station or motorway exit depending on their current use have been observed, they were not statistically significant.
F. Zannad, Jacqueline Alikhaani, Sadegh Alikhaani
et al.
There are many consequences of heart failure (HF), including symptoms, impaired health‐related quality of life (HRQoL), and physical and social limitations (functional status). These have a substantial impact on patients' lives, yet are not routinely captured in clinical trials. Patient‐reported outcomes (PROs) can quantify patients' experiences of their disease and its treatment. Steps can be taken to improve the use of PROs in HF trials, in regulatory and payer decisions, and in patient care. Importantly, PRO measures (PROMs) must be developed with involvement of patients, family members, and caregivers from diverse demographic groups and communities. PRO data collection should become more routine not only in clinical trials but also in clinical practice. This may be facilitated by the use of digital tools and interdisciplinary patient advocacy efforts. There is a need for standardization, not only of the PROM instruments, but also in procedures for analysis, interpretation and reporting PRO data. More work needs to be done to determine the degree of change that is important to patients and that is associated with increased risks of clinical events. This ‘minimal clinically important difference’ requires further research to determine thresholds for different PROMs, to assess consistency across trial populations, and to define standards for improvement that warrant regulatory and reimbursement approvals. PROs are a vital part of patient care and drug development, and more work should be done to ensure that these measures are both reflective of the patient experience and that they are more widely employed.
Air pollution poses prevailing and increasing threats to human health.1 Beyond its well-recognized role in respiratory and cardiovascular diseases, studies have now linked air pollution to numerous other illnesses, including chronic kidney disease (CKD).2 Defined as kidney damage or abnormal function persisting for at least 3 months,3 CKD afflicts >800million people worldwide and is most commonly detected by routine blood testing showing a decline in glomerular filtration rate (GFR) estimated from serum creatinine concentration (eGFR) or elevated urinary albumin excretion.4 Epidemiological evidence over the last few years has associated long-term exposure to air pollutants—including fine [≤2:5 lm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2:5)] and coarse particulate matter [≤10 lm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10)], nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and carbon monoxide (CO)—with increased risk of incident CKD, eGFR decline, and progression to kidney failure,5–7 which requires dialysis or kidney transplantation for survival. Given that CKD is a leading cause of worldwide mortality and is usually asymptomatic until its advanced stages,4 elucidating the adverse kidney effects of air pollution and their pathogenesis may inform vital preventive strategies. In this issue of Environmental Health Perspectives, Lee et al. extend the potential risks of long-term air pollution exposure on kidney health to include acute kidney injury (AKI).8 They report the results of a longitudinal study of >60million Medicare beneficiaries, examining associations of long-term exposures to major air pollutants with risk of first hospitalization for AKI. They ascertained AKI status through hospital discharge diagnosis codes over 1-y periods of follow-up, which started from the participant’s entry into the cohort through the first admission with diagnosis codes for AKI, death, or the end of the study period, whichever came first. After adjustment for demographics and neighborhood-level socioeconomic status indicators, exposure to PM2:5, NO2, and summertime ozone (O3) were each associated with increased risk of first hospitalization with AKI. Notably, these associations were attenuated in analyses restricted to participants presumed to have CKD; after restriction, only exposure to PM2:5 still indicated an increased risk with AKI hospitalization, although smaller than in the overall study population. The authors’ work draws welcome attention to the potential impact of air pollution on kidney disease, which had been relatively overlooked until the past few years. Most published studies have examined CKD,2,5–7 whereas AKI is a related but distinct condition (Figure 1), defined by an abrupt (within 48 h) and often reversible decline in GFR.9 Although prior work has associated short-term exposure to air pollution with increased risk of AKI,10 the broader causal and temporal relationships between air pollution and kidney disease remain to be defined. The underlying biological mechanisms by which chronic exposure to air pollution could result in AKI are not fully clear, although a few possibilities exist. First, the proposed mechanisms that link air pollution to a gradual reduction in eGFR to result in CKD2—oxidative stress, systemic inflammation, DNA damage, and atherosclerosis—may increase susceptibility for AKI. The causes of AKI itself are vast and heterogenous, from hypotension and dehydration (accounting for up to 40% of hospital-acquired AKI globally11) to drugs, infection, ischemia, inflammation, vascular injury, and outflow obstruction.9 The pathogenic effects of air pollution may thus contribute to a “multi-hit” process that overwhelms the kidneys’ functional reserve to increase the risk of AKI. Second, the effects of air pollution on AKI may be mediated by comorbid conditions (Figure 1). These include hypertension, type 1 and type 2 diabetes,12,13 and even CKD, which markedly increases the risk for hospital-acquired AKI,14 and could explain why effect estimates in the present study were attenuated among participants with CKD. Last, air pollution could have acute, direct cytotoxic effects on the kidney akin to what has been proposed for iodinated contrast.15 This mechanism of kidney injury is plausible given studies in humans and mice showing that inhaled gold nanoparticles translocated from the lungs into systemic circulation and became detectable in the urine, indicating direct contact with the vasculature and tubules of the kidneys.16 As recognized by the authors, the use of hospital discharge diagnosis codes to define AKI comes with important limitations. Although reasonably specific for adjudicated AKI events and convenient for health care research, these codes have poor sensitivity and undercount AKI incidence, including cases of AKI that occur without hospitalization.17 Moreover, diagnosis codes do not provide granularity on the cause of AKI or its timing relative to hospital admission. For instance, a participant’s AKI may a)
El objetivo de este artículo es explorar los efectos del contexto económico del país de residencia en la declaración de la intención de retorno entre los inmigrantes. Con base en los datos del Segundo Registro de Chilenos en el Exterior, este artículo establece un análisis multinivel de los determinantes de la intención de retorno entre emigrantes chilenos con más de 54 países diferentes. Se pretende entender cómo se articulan diversas variables explicativas en distintos niveles, es decir, en qué medida las características de los países de residencia de los emigrantes determinan la intención de retorno en relación con los factores vinculados con su trayectoria vital. La contribución de este artículo es mostrar que mientras los efectos del contexto económico no parecen ser significativos, las variables individuales, en cambio, demuestran tener un fuerte impacto, lo que resulta congruente con el resto de la literatura sobre la intención de retorno.
Social Sciences, Demography. Population. Vital events
Migracije, odnosno kretanje stanovništva u raznim pravcima i iz različitih razloga, u poslednje vreme postaju sve intenzivnije, planirane sa određenim ciljem i mogu da izazovu velike društvene promene. S obzirom da ne postoji jedinstvena definicija migranta, poseban izazov za države predstavlja ostvarivanje prava na rad radnika migranata koje je skopčano sa ispunjenjem osnovne svrhe ekonomskih migracija.
U radu, autor polazi od hipoteze da položaj radnika migranata značajno zavisi od politike države prijema, te da se neretko radnici migranti nalaze u prekarnom položaju na tržištu rada. U prvom delu rada fokus je postavljen na migracije i položaj radnika migranata na prostorima država Evropske unije, kao i na uticaj pojedinih međunarodnih dokumenata koji se neposredno ili posredno odnose na položaj i zaštitu radnika migranata. Drugi deo rada posvećen je značaju uloge sindikata u pospešivanju nezavidnog položaja radnika migranata, kao i ključnim motivima za emigraciju srpskih radnika u inostranstvo. Zaključno, autor ističe da postoji opravdana bojazan da će radne migracije negativno uticati na sindikalnu sliku u onim državama u kojima su sindikati slabi i razjedinjeni, kao i da je neophodno da se nastavi sa praćenjem migracionih procesa kako bi se omogućio realan uvid u brojne socijalne, ekonomske i političke implikacije migracija radnika.
Ključne reči
Međunarodna organizacija rada, radnik migrant, sindikat, zemlja porekla, tržište rada
Introduction: The COVID-19 pandemic has had a devastating worldwide effect on mental health. Recent studies correlate the spreading of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) with symptoms of depression, most prominent in postpartum women. Our systematic literature review scope is to identify the risk factors and predictors for postpartum depression (PPD) and describe the steps that should be taken to help postpartum women. This study will help clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to elucidate the predictors of PPD during this pandemic and prevent these adverse outcomes in future crises. Methods: We conducted a systematic search by employing databases PubMed, Google Scholar, Scopus, and Embase to identify articles published before March 2021. About 463 publications were generated during our search process and from those, 36 were reviewed, summarized, and synthesized. Studies qualified the criteria if they (1) utilized qualitative or quantitative design, (2) explored the risk factors for PPD, and (3) were written in English. Quality evaluation of each study was achieved by using criteria set by Lincoln and Guba. Results: Prevalence of depression symptoms ranged from 7% to 80.8% in postpartum women during the SARS-COV 2 pandemic. The risk factors for PPD were classified into 6 major categories: socio-demographic, psychological, pre-existing pathology, metabolic factors, previous events of miscarriage, and media misinformation. Conclusion: It is extremely vital to care for women’s mental health during pregnancy and after childbirth during these unprecedented times. This review urges the need to design adequate interventions for this vulnerable population to prevent negative consequences of PPD.
PURPOSE The limitations of current US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)-approved medications for the treatment of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) set the need for the development of novel, effective, and tolerable medications to treat this disorder. The purpose of this study was to evaluate whether treatment with SPN-812 (viloxazine extended-release) significantly reduces symptoms of ADHD in children. METHODS This study was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled 6-week trial to assess the efficacy and safety of once-daily 100- and 200-mg SPN-812 in the treatment of ADHD in male and female children 6-11 years of age. Inclusion criteria required subjects to have a confirmed Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fifth Edition, ADHD diagnosis, an ADHD-Rating Scale-5 (ADHD-RS-5) score ≥28, a Clinical Global Impression-Severity score ≥4, and for subjects to be free of ADHD medication ≥1 week before randomization. The primary efficacy endpoint was the change from baseline (CFB) at end of study (EOS) in ADHD-RS-5 Total score. Key secondary endpoints included Clinical Global Impression-Improvement (CGI-I) scores at EOS and CFB at EOS in the Conners 3-Parent Short Form (Conners 3-PS) Composite T-score and the Weiss Functional Impairment Rating Scale-Parent (WFIRS-P) Total average score. Safety assessments included adverse events (AEs), laboratory tests, vital signs, physical examinations, ECGs, and the Columbia-Suicide Severity Rating Scale. The primary efficacy endpoint was analyzed by using a mixed model for repeated measures; all secondary measures were analyzed by using an ANCOVA model. RESULTS A total of 477 subjects were randomized to treatment (intent-to-treat population, n = 460). The majority of subjects were male (63%) and either White (51.3%) or African American (43.7%). The demographic and baseline characteristics between the groups were similar. Statistically significant improvements in ADHD-RS-5 Total score were observed in both the 100- and 200-mg/day SPN-812 treatment groups compared to placebo at week 1 of treatment (P = 0.0004 and P = 0.0244, respectively), which was maintained through EOS (P = 0.0004 and P < 0.0001). Significant improvements were also observed at EOS in the CGI-I scale (P = 0.0020 and P < 0.0001), Conners 3-PS Composite T-score (P = 0.0003 and P = 0.0002), and WFIRS-P Total average score (P = 0.0019 and P = 0.0002) versus placebo. Treatment-related AEs reported in ≥5% of subjects included somnolence, decreased appetite, and headache. The discontinuation rate due to AEs was <5%. IMPLICATIONS SPN-812 significantly reduced ADHD symptoms in children and was well tolerated. SPN-812 may prove to be an effective treatment for children with ADHD. ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT03247530.
374 During an epidemic, rapid mortality surveillance provides essential information to formulate an evidence-based response. Weekly counts of deaths are a key indicator of overall epidemic impact and trajectory.1,2 Enumeration of all deaths, when compared to historically expected mortality, produces a picture of excess death, capturing both the direct burden of the epidemic and its indirect mortality burden, caused by disruptions to the access, use and provision of health-care services. Such actionable public health intelligence can overcome the ambiguities of just measuring cases and deaths linked to the infectious disease causing the epidemic. Measuring excess death would therefore be useful in the countries’ response to the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Rapid mortality surveillance comprises both facilityand communitybased components and depends on both data availability and transmissibility. Networks of community and health facility sites reporting deaths by age, sex and location on a daily or weekly basis provide an essential input to the outbreak response, including tracking the epidemic trajectory after adjusting public health and social measures.3 This type of rapid surveillance has been implemented in numerous settings, including in Europe and Africa, and its feasibility has been demonstrated even under difficult conditions, such as mass displacement.4–9 Facility-based surveillance may be implemented by medical records staff, observing proper infection control measures to protect themselves, including avoiding patient-care areas; observing workplace physical distancing measures; rigorously practicing hand hygiene; and use of personal protective equipment. A simple list of deaths by age, sex and usual residence transmitted weekly from a selected set of sentinel facilities is the starting point. One approach to rapid mortality surveillance is to leverage existing routine health information systems, COVID-19-specific rapid data collection platforms or existing surveillance platforms, such as integrated disease surveillance and response. Community-based surveillance may be critical where high numbers of deaths occur outside of health facilities – a situation that may worsen should health systems become overwhelmed. Community surveillance can be done by community-based health-care providers or other frontline workers whose existing remit includes the notification of vital events, provided that infection prevention measures can be observed to protect those collecting data. Ideally, with little lag-time, the system could generate weekly counts of deaths by demographic group and location. Real-time data can be compared to predicted deaths from historical data. For populations without historical data, the initial period of complete reporting can provide a baseline against which to compare emerging trends. Rapid mortality surveillance may provide policy-makers with up-to-date status reports, including spread into new areas or previously unaffected populations. This surveillance can also help target, prioritize and monitor the effectiveness of prevention and response strategies. Countries need real-time awareness of the distribution and magnitude of all direct and indirect health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic. Establishing, scaling and improving upon rapid mortality surveillance would contribute to fulfilling this need, as well as preparing for future outbreaks. ■
Este trabajo analiza los procesos de la transición sanitaria (TS) y de la segunda transición demográfica (STD) en Argentina durante la primera década del milenio actual. A partir de la revisión de literatura especializada y utilizando bases de datos oficiales, se proponen indicadores empíricos para su evaluación y se examinan las articulaciones entre ambos procesos. En total, se seleccionaron y describieron 31 indicadores considerados proxy de estos procesos, para las 23 provincias argentinas y la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires. Posteriormente se realizó un análisis de clúster jerárquico y aglomerativo, siguiendo el método de Ward. Se identificaron cuatro clústeres de jurisdicciones argentinas, cuya distribución fue valorada espacialmente. Los clústeres presentaron diferentes grados de avance en ambas transiciones. Los hallazgos muestran que en el país existe un gradiente socioeconómico en la conformación de los clústeres, y que la sincronicidad entre la STD y la TS se expresa a escala espacial y social.
Social Sciences, Demography. Population. Vital events
The goal of this study was to examine whether and to what extent sex ratio values at birth may have reflected social and economic inequalities in the Province of Poznań (German: Provinz Posen) in the last decades of the 1800s and early 1900s. It was assumed that maternal economic, social and emotional well-being differed according to the size of the place of residence (Poznań / town / village) and her marital status (married / unmarried). In the population of the Province, urban areas (e.g., Poznań) and single motherhood were the predictors increasing the chance that the proportion of boys to girls at birth would decline below the biological norm. These factors could affect women during pregnancy through biological (physiological) mechanisms induced by adverse economic conditions (poverty, poor housing conditions, physical effort related to work and spatial mobility) and psychological stress (lack of social approval and support, social instability, occurrence of stigmatization, etc.). It is worth noting, however, that the variability of sex ratio values at birth could also be due to other factors, not identified (captured) in this paper.
History of Poland, Demography. Population. Vital events
Nadine E Andrew, Dominique A Cadilhac, Vijaya Sundararajan
et al.
Introduction
Recent advances in Australia mean that it is possible to link national clinical registries with government held administrative datasets. However, formal evaluations of such activities and the potential impact for research are lacking.
Objectives and Approach
We aimed to assess the feasibility and accuracy of linking registrants from the Australian Stroke Clinical Registry (AuSCR) with the Medicare enrolment file. Following data custodian and ethics approvals, personal linkage identifiers were submitted to the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare (AIHW). De-identified data from AuSCR and the AIHW were submitted into the Secure Unified Research Environment and merged using project specific person-based IDs. We calculated the proportion of patients linked with the Medicare enrolment file that were present in the associated Medicare and medication dispensing datasets and the proportion with claims after their date of death. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with a non-merged patient.
Results
17,980 AuSCR registrants (January 2010-July 2014) were submitted for linkage (median age 76 years; 46% female; 67% ischaemic stroke; 16% TIA). Of these, 93% were merged with Medicare (N=16,648) and 95% with subsidised medication dispensing claims data (N=17,079). In those who died, 127 (0.8%) had one or more Medicare claim and 411 (2.4%) had one or more medications dispensed after their death date. Asian born registrants were less likely to be merged with Medicare (adjusted Odds Ratio [aOR]: 0.54; 95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 0.40, 0.72) than Australian born registrants. Those aged ≥85 years were less likely to be merged with Medicare data than those aged <65 years (aOR 0.24; 95% CI: 0.19, 0.29) but were more likely to be merged with dispensing data (aOR: 2.22 (95% CI: 1.73, 2.84).
Conclusion/Implications
Linkage between a national clinical quality registry and the Medicare spine is feasible. These linkages will provide novel insights into post-stroke care.
After the eastern expansion of the European Union (EU), a large number of emigrants left their home countries to work in economically better developed western member states. Hungary followed this EU emigration trend with a certain time lag. However, the rising number of emigrants caused structural problems in the domestic labour market. A comprehensive examination of intra-EU remittances as one of the major determinants of migration has been outside the scope of recent research activity. The data from the Hungarian Microcensus survey and the first Hungarian household survey focusing on the topic of remittances can provide a valuable case study of intra-EU private transfer flows.
The aims of this study are twofold. On the one hand we intend to provide empirical evidence for the major factors that determine remittance propensity by calculating probit regressions. On the other hand, OLS regressions are calculated in order to introduce variables which are associated with money transfers. These results are interpreted within the theoretical framework of the New Economics of Labour Migration (NELM) to identify the underlying motivations for remittances. The most important findings are that older men with vocational school education have the highest remittance propensity, and the likelihood of sending private support is higher among short-term migrants. As the key factors, the income of the sender person is positively associated with the sum of money flows, while the income of the receiving household is negatively associated. Within the theoretical framework of NELM, these results favour the dominance of altruistic motives, since supporting the household members who remain behind seems to be the major driving force. However, when intentions of returning home are considered in the models, it seems that self-interest might also play a role as a driver of remittances. Within this study, the main focus was on the characteristics of the senders, meaning that a possible field of future research could be an examination of these questions from the perspective of remittance receiver households.
Urban groups. The city. Urban sociology, City population. Including children in cities, immigration
<b>Background</b>: Spatial population models are important to inform understanding of historical demographic development patterns and to project possible future changes, especially for use in anticipating environmental interactions. <b>Objective</b>: We document, calibrate, and evaluate a high-resolution gravity-based population downscaling model for each US state and interpret its historical urban and rural spatial population change patterns. <b>Methods</b>: We estimate two free parameters that govern the spatial population change pattern using the historical population grids of each state. We interpret the resulting parameters in light of the spatial development pattern they represent. We evaluate the model by comparing the resulting total population grid of each state in 2010 against its census-based grid. We also analyze the temporal stability of parameters across the 1990-2000 and 2000-2010 decades. <b>Results</b>: Our analysis indicates varying levels of performance across states and population types. While our results suggest a consolidated change pattern in urban population across states, rural population change patterns are diverse. We find urban parameters are more stable. <b>Conclusions</b>: The model's adaptability, performance, and interpretability indicate its potential for depicting historical state-level spatial population changes. It assigns these changes to different representative categories to assist interpretation. <b>Contribution</b>: We document and evaluate a gravitational model as well as investigate historical state-level spatial population changes. This research facilitates future work creating projections of the spatial distribution of population at the subnational level, especially those according to the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), widely used scenarios for climate change research.