Hasil untuk "Natural history (General)"

S. Bellentani, F. Scaglioni, M. Marino et al.

P. Cardoso, T. Erwin, P. Borges et al.

A. Ficke, C. Myrick, L. Hansen

J. B. Murray, M. Matthay, J. Luce et al.

M. Schmidt, Angela G. Noack

T. Gardner, D. Adler, C. Forsmark et al.

Chronic pancreatitis (CP) is historically defined as an irreversible inflammatory condition of the pancreas leading to varying degrees of exocrine and endocrine dysfunction. Recently however, the paradigm for the diagnosis has changed in that it breaks with the traditional clinicopathologic-based definition of disease, focusing instead on diagnosing the underlying pathologic process early in the disease course and managing the syndrome more holistically to change the natural course of disease and minimize adverse disease effects. Currently, the most accepted mechanistically derived definition of CP is a pathologic fibroinflammatory syndrome of the pancreas in individuals with genetic, environmental, and/or other risk factors who develop persistent pathologic responses to parenchymal injury or stress. The most common symptom of CP is abdominal pain, with other symptoms such as exocrine pancreatic insufficiency and diabetes developing at highly variable rates. CP is most commonly caused by toxins such as alcohol or tobacco use, genetic polymorphisms, and recurrent attacks of acute pancreatitis, although no history of acute pancreatitis is seen in many patients. Diagnosis is made usually on cross-sectional imaging, with modalities such as endoscopic ultrasonography and pancreatic function tests playing a secondary role. Total pancreatectomy represents the only known cure for CP, although difficulty in patient selection and the complications inherent to this intervention make it usually an unattractive option. This guideline will provide an evidence-based practical approach to the diagnosis and management of CP for the general gastroenterologist.

Patrick B. Eriksson, Jouni Vainio, Niko Tollman et al.

The Finnish Ice Service is part of the Finnish Meteorological Institute (FMI). Based on the mandate in the Finnish legislation, it provides information on the ice conditions in the Baltic Sea. This paper introduces the methods used by the Finnish Ice Service, data sources, products, services, datasets, and supporting Baltic Sea ice remote sensing and geophysics research conducted at FMI. The predecessor of the Finnish Ice Service started its operational ice charting in 1915 to provide ice information for the winter navigation. To this day, the main users still are the winter navigation authorities, including the icebreaker fleet and management, as well as the shipping community, scientists and general public. The focus area is the Baltic Sea. Typically, the service operates from mid-October to the end of May, providing up-to-date sea-ice information in several products and formats. The prevailing ice situation is described in ice charts, ice reports and ice codes, which are based on a range of different observation sources like satellite images, predominantly from synthetic aperture radars, and surface observations from both icebreakers and coastal observers. The Finnish Ice Service has long sea ice observation timeseries and archives of manually analysed ice charts. To help users and customers optimize their operations in ice infested waters, the Finnish Ice Service provides numerical and manual sea ice forecasts with various forecast lengths. The Finnish Ice Service processes and disseminates satellite data and also provides advisory and consultant services to users. As FMI is committed to the open data policy, the main ice service products are provided free of charge. A number of products are also available through the Copernicus Marine Service (CMS).

Márton Horváth, Péter Fehérvári, Tamás Szitta et al.

The eastern imperial eagle (<i>Aquila heliaca</i>) has shown a marked population increase in the past decades in Hungary. The breeding range is expanding towards homogeneous agricultural habitats of the Hungarian Plain, where the already existing and recently growing infrastructural network is thought to be one of the main factors limiting distribution. We used data from 508 breeding attempts between 1989 and 2008 to assess the effects of infrastructural networks on breeding distribution. We constructed a single cumulative infrastructure effect (CIE) variable based on the avoidance of different infrastructure types by eagles in the past 20 years. Conditional autoregressive models were built in a Bayesian framework to quantify the effects of infrastructures on the spatial breeding pattern in a pre-defined core study area. Both multivariate and CIE models were able to classify the presence of breeding attempts with high accuracy. The CIE variable was used to build a predictive distribution model for the Hungarian Plain. The results suggest that infrastructure has a significant local effect but does not necessarily hinder the future range expansion of imperial eagles, as two-thirds of the prediction area seems to be suitable for the species. The methods and results described enable conservation managers and policy makers to assess the trade-off between infrastructural development and nature conservation priorities.

E. Lindquist, M. Sabelis, J. Bruin

Yibo Ma, Dong Zhang, Jian Xu et al.

Abstract Background A number of models have been reported for predicting atrial fibrillation (AF) recurrence after catheter ablation. Although many machine learning (ML) models were developed among them, black-box effect existed widely. It was always difficult to explain how variables affect model output. We sought to implement an explainable ML model and then reveal its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal AF at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation. Methods Between January 2018 and December 2020, 471 consecutive patients with paroxysmal AF who had their first catheter ablation procedure were retrospectively enrolled. Patients were randomly assigned into training cohort (70%) and testing cohort (30%). The explainable ML model based on Random Forest (RF) algorithm was developed and modified on training cohort, and tested on testing cohort. In order to gain insight into the association between observed values and model output, Shapley additive explanations (SHAP) analysis was used to visualize the ML model. Results In this cohort, 135 patients experienced tachycardias recurrences. With hyperparameters adjusted, the ML model predicted AF recurrence with an area under the curve of 66.7% in the testing cohort. Summary plots listed the top 15 features in descending order and preliminary showed the association between features and outcome prediction. Early recurrence of AF showed the most positive impact on model output. Dependence plots combined with force plots showed the impact of single feature on model output, and helped determine high risk cut-off points. The thresholds of CHA 2 DS 2 -VASc score, systolic blood pressure, AF duration, HAS-BLED score, left atrial diameter and age were 2, 130 mmHg, 48 months, 2, 40 mm and 70 years, respectively. Decision plot recognized significant outliers. Conclusion An explainable ML model effectively revealed its decision-making process in identifying patients with paroxysmal atrial fibrillation at high risk for recurrence after catheter ablation by listing important features, showing the impact of every feature on model output, determining appropriate thresholds and identifying significant outliers. Physicians can combine model output, visualization of model and clinical experience to make better decision.

Javier Mar, Igor Larrañaga, Oliver Ibarrondo et al.

Abstract Background As mental health in adulthood is related to mental status during adolescence, school-based interventions have been proposed to improve resilience. The objective of this study was to build a simulation model representing the natural history of mental disorders in childhood, adolescence and youth to estimate the cost-effectiveness of the UPRIGHT school-based intervention in promoting resilience and mental health in adolescence. Methods We built a discrete event simulation model fed with real-world data (cumulative incidence disaggregated into eight clusters) from the Basque Health Service database (609,381 individuals) to calculate utilities (quality-adjusted life years [QALYs]) and costs for the general population in two scenarios (base case and intervention). The model translated changes in the wellbeing of adolescents into different risks of mental illnesses for a time horizon of 30 years. Results The number of cases of anxiety was estimated to fall by 5,125 or 9,592 and those of depression by 1,269 and 2,165 if the effect of the intervention lasted 2 or 5 years respectively. From a healthcare system perspective, the intervention was cost-effective for all cases considered with incremental cost-utility ratios always lower than €10,000/QALY and dominant for some subgroups. The intervention was always dominant when including indirect and non-medical costs (societal perspective). Conclusions Although the primary analysis of the trial did not did not detect significant differences, the UPRIGHT intervention promoting positive mental health was dominant in the economic evaluation from the societal perspective. Promoting resilience was more cost-effective in the most deprived group. Despite a lack of information about the spillover effect in some sectors, the economic evaluation framework developed principally for pharmacoeconomics can be applied to interventions to promote resilience in adolescents. As prevention of mental health disorders is even more necessary in the post-coronavirus disease-19 era, such evaluation is essential to assess whether investment in mental health promotion would be good value for money by avoiding costs for healthcare providers and other stakeholders.

Gloria García del Hoyo, Teodosio Donaire Romero

Cabo de Gata-Níjar geopark is an exceptional volcanic zone in the western Mediterranean because of the submarine effusive volcanism and the large volume of subaerial pyroclastic deposits; volcanism developed between land and sea. Its extensive outcrops attract students and researchers from all over Europe to have a better and more precise understanding of the processes behind this volcanism. The compositional range of the outcrops and climatic conditions have generated amazingly well exposed areas, where a wide range of volcanic deposits can be observed and studied. Its current position makes the whole complex an outstanding area for research and education in geology and volcanology. All this led to the designation of the area as a UNESCO Global Geopark in 2015 and the development of a strategy to highlight the value of the geological heritage of the area, developing diverse tools in the form of brochures, maps, a geosite inventory and a legal framework to make conservation and research main objectives of the management team.

Stephanie M. Koontz, Federico López‐Borghesi, Stacy A. Smith et al.

Abstract Species translocations are increasingly common in rare plant conservation. Wild populations can provide basic ecological knowledge to improve their chance of success. In the heavily fragmented Florida scrub, USA, many listed species require translocations to persist, including Dicerandra christmanii. In 1994, we began monitoring the only protected population of D. christmanii growing both in gaps (open areas) within the shrub matrix and on roadsides. In 2010, we augmented this population by adding plants and seeds to unoccupied gaps. In 2012, we introduced plants to a separate protected site to create a new population. We evaluated early translocation success using generalized linear mixed‐effect models of vital rate variation among habitat types. Survival probability increased with size, peaking at 0.6–0.8, and was lowest in augmentations and highest in introductions. Growth increased with plant size across all habitat types, except for the largest adults which experienced senescence. Naturally recruited plants in gaps showed the highest reproduction probability and fecundity at smaller sizes, but larger plants in translocations had the highest fecundity. Yearling recruitment was higher in translocated plants relative to naturally recruited plants in gaps during the initial years following outplanting. Experimental components of translocations also affected outplanting performance with positive effects of fire. These analyses suggest a high potential for translocations to become established and contribute to species recovery.

Gomathi Srinivasan, Priscilla Niranjani Marcus, Priya Sivakumar et al.

Shauhin E. Alavi, Shauhin E. Alavi, Shauhin E. Alavi et al.

Animal movement along repeatedly used, “habitual” routes could emerge from a variety of cognitive mechanisms, as well as in response to a diverse set of environmental features. Because of the high conservation value of identifying wildlife movement corridors, there has been extensive work focusing on environmental factors that contribute to the emergence of habitual routes between protected habitats. In parallel, significant work has focused on disentangling the cognitive mechanisms underlying animal route use, as such movement patterns are of fundamental interest to the study of decision making and navigation. We reviewed the types of processes that can generate routine patterns of animal movement, suggested a new methodological workflow for classifying one of these patterns—high fidelity path reuse—in animal tracking data, and compared the prevalence of this pattern across four sympatric species of frugivorous mammals in Panama. We found the highest prevalence of route-use in kinkajous, the only nocturnal species in our study, and propose that further development of this method could help to distinguish the processes underlying the presence of specific routes in animal movement data.

M. DeBaun, F. D. Armstrong, R. McKinstry et al.

A. Møller

P. Mayhew

I. Eisler, C. Dare, G. Russell et al.

R. V. S. Gonçalves, J. C. F. Cardoso, P. E. Oliveira et al.

<p>Changes in the vegetation of Brazilian Cerrado may occur over time. However, long-term dynamics are not fully understood yet, especially woody plant encroachment (WPE). The objective of this study was to examine changes in vegetation structure in a preserved area in Triângulo Mineiro region, within the southern Brazilian Cerrado domain, over 32 years (1987, 2005, and 2019). We based the study on field and literature surveys, as well as satellite imagery, and hypothesized that, due to the absence of periodic fires or grazing, Cerrado open formations (i.e., grassland or savanna) tend to become denser due to WPE. Shrubby grassland cover assessed in 1987 disappeared in the following periods (from 30.0 % to 0.0 % in 2019) while forest formations increased (from 7.0 % in 1987 to 11.0 % in 2019). Changes between 2005 and 2019 occurred within the stricto sensu cerrado subdivisions, with reduction of sparse cerrado (from 34.2 % to 7.7 %) and an increase in dense cerrado (from 6.9 % to 39.8 %). Normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) applied for similar periods indicates a progressive increase of values over time (from 1986 (<span class="inline-formula">0.61±0.10</span>) to 2004 (<span class="inline-formula">0.65±0.06</span>) and 2018 (<span class="inline-formula">0.78±0.05</span>)) and corroborates the WPE process. These patterns imply the loss of biodiversity in open plant formation. Another major consequence was the reduction of wetlands and possible impact on water supply. Such patterns are important to support plant management plans for the threatened Cerrado open plant formations.</p>