Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

A. Alesina, Enrico Spolaore

The authors of this timely and provocative book use the tools of economic analysis to examine the formation and change of political borders. They argue that while these issues have always been at the core of historical analysis, international economists have tended to regard the size of a country as "exogenous," or no more subject to explanation than the location of a mountain range or the course of a river. Alesina and Spolaore consider a country's borders to be subject to the same analysis as any other man-made institution. In The Size of Nations, they argue that the optimal size of a country is determined by a cost-benefit trade-off between the benefits of size and the costs of heterogeneity. In a large country, per capita costs may be low, but the heterogeneous preferences of a large population make it hard to deliver services and formulate policy. Smaller countries may find it easier to respond to citizen preferences in a democratic way. Alesina and Spolaore substantiate their analysis with simple analytical models that show how the patterns of globalization, international conflict, and democratization of the last two hundred years can explain patterns of state formation. Their aim is not only "normative" but also "positive" -- that is, not only to compute the optimal size of a state in theory but also to explain the phenomenon of country size in reality. They argue that the complexity of real world conditions does not preclude a systematic analysis, and that such an analysis, synthesizing economics, political science, and history, can help us understand real world events.

Himanshu Jha

Vladas Griskevicius, J. Ackerman, Stephanie M. Cantú et al.

Zhenhang Shang, Kani Chen

Randomness beacons based on Verifiable Delay Functions (VDFs) are increasingly proposed for blockchains and distributed systems, promising publicly verifiable delay and bias resistance. Existing analyses, however, treat adversaries purely as cryptographic entities and overlook that real attackers are economically motivated. A VDF may be sequentially secure, yet still vulnerable if a rational adversary can profit by purchasing faster hardware and exploiting reward spikes such as MEV opportunities. We develop a formal framework for economic security of VDF-based randomness beacons. Modeling the attacker as a rational agent facing hardware speedup, operating costs, and stochastic rewards, we cast the attack decision as an optimal-stopping problem and prove that optimal behavior has a monotone threshold structure. This yields tight necessary and sufficient conditions relating delay parameters to adversarial cost and reward distributions. We extend the analysis to grinding, selective abort, and multi-adversary competition, demonstrating how each amplifies effective rewards and increases required delays. Using realistic cloud costs, hardware benchmarks, and MEV data, we show that many proposed VDF delays, on the order of a few seconds, are economically insecure under plausible conditions. We conclude with deployable guidelines and introduce Economically Secure Delay Parameters (ESDPs) to support principled parameter selection in practical systems.

Yun Zhou, Anca Draghici, Jaffar Abbas et al.

The new identified virus COVID-19 has become one of the most contagious diseases in human history. The ongoing coronavirus has created severe threats to global mental health, which have resulted in crisis management challenges and international concerns related to health issues. As of September 9, 2021, there were over 223.4 million patients with COVID-19, including 4.6 million deaths and over 200 million recovered patients reported worldwide, which has made the COVID-19 outbreak one of the deadliest pandemics in human history. The aggressive public health implementations endorsed various precautionary safety and preventive strategies to suppress and minimize COVID-19 disease transmission. The second, third, and fourth waves of COVID-19 continue to pose global challenges to crisis management, as its evolution and implications are still unfolding. This study posits that examining the strategic ripostes and pandemic experiences sheds light on combatting this global emergency. This study recommends two model strategies that help reduce the adverse effects of the pandemic on the immune systems of the general population. This present paper recommends NPI interventions (non-pharmaceutical intervention) to combine various measures, such as the suppression strategy (lockdown and restrictions) and mitigation model to decrease the burden on health systems. The current COVID-19 health crisis has influenced all vital economic sectors and developed crisis management problems. The global supply of vaccines is still not sufficient to manage this global health emergency. In this crisis, NPIs are helpful to manage the spillover impacts of the pandemic. It articulates the prominence of resilience and economic and strategic agility to resume economic activities and resolve healthcare issues. This study primarily focuses on the role of social media to tackle challenges and crises posed by COVID-19 on economies, business activities, healthcare burdens, and government support for societies to resume businesses, and implications for global economic and healthcare provision disruptions. This study suggests that intervention strategies can control the rapid spread of COVID-19 with hands-on crisis management measures, and the healthcare system will resume normal conditions quickly. Global economies will revitalize scientific contributions and collaborations, including social science and business industries, through government support.

Nikolay Gospodinov, Ignacio Lopez Gaffney, Serena Ng

Temperature variations at different frequencies may have distinct impacts on economic outcomes. We first explore ways to estimate the low- and high-frequency components in a U.S. panel of 48 states. All methods suggest slowly evolving low-frequency components of temperature at the state level, and that they share a common factor which covaries with the low-frequency component of economic activity. While we fail to find a statistically significant impact of low-frequency temperature changes on U.S. growth, an international panel of 50 countries suggests that a 1°C increase in the low-frequency component will reduce economic growth by about one percent in the long run. The linear effect of the high-frequency component is not well determined in all panels, but there is evidence of a non-linear effect in the international panel. The findings are corroborated by time series estimation using data at the unit and national levels. Our empirical work pays attention to distortions that may arise from using one-way clustered errors for inference, and to the possible inadequacy of the additive fixed effect specification in controlling for common time effects.

Coen Hutters, Max B. Mendel

In this paper, we demonstrate how multiport network theory can be used as a powerful modeling tool in economics. The critical insight is using the port concept to pair the flow of goods (the electrical current) with the agent's incentive (the voltage) in an economic interaction. By building networks of agents interacting through ports, we create models with multiple levels of abstraction, from the macro level down to the micro level. We are thereby able to model complex macroeconomic systems whose dynamical behavior is emergent from the micro level. Using the LTSpice circuit simulator, we then design and analyze a series of example systems that range in complexity from the textbook Robinson Crusoe economy to a model of an entire economy.

Marco Mostert

W. Sharples, K. Bahramian, K. Unnithan et al.

<p>The Hawkesbury-Nepean valley is one of the largest coastal basins in NSW. It supports the local agriculture industry and is an important environmental asset. Due to its narrow sandstone gorges, which create natural choke points, floodwaters from its major tributaries can rapidly back up, rise and spill out onto the flood plain. Thus, the valley is flood-prone, with a history of disastrous events, aggravated by a constrained road network for evacuation.</p> <p>Two flood events occurred in the Hawkesbury-Nepean valley in 2020 and 2021, however, the impact of each of those events was different in terms of lives lost (2 fatalities compared to none) and economic losses (more than AUD 2 billion compared to less than AUD 1 billion). In this study, reasons for the variation in impacts are explored by determining an inundation likelihood map, derived using a combination of the height above nearest drainage method and streamflow forecasts, and considering antecedent hydrological and climate conditions.</p>

Yanbing Bai, Jinhua Su, Bin Qiao et al.

Timely and accurate economic data is crucial for effective policymaking. Current challenges in data timeliness and spatial resolution can be addressed with advancements in multimodal sensing and distributed computing. We introduce Senseconomic, a scalable system for tracking economic dynamics via multimodal imagery and deep learning. Built on the Transformer framework, it integrates remote sensing and street view images using cross-attention, with nighttime light data as weak supervision. The system achieved an R-squared value of 0.8363 in county-level economic predictions and halved processing time to 23 minutes using distributed computing. Its user-friendly design includes a Vue3-based front end with Baidu maps for visualization and a Python-based back end automating tasks like image downloads and preprocessing. Senseconomic empowers policymakers and researchers with efficient tools for resource allocation and economic planning.

Aryan Eftekhari, Doris Folini, Aleksandra Friedl et al.

We introduce a framework for developing efficient and interpretable climate emulators (CEs) for economic models of climate change. The paper makes two main contributions. First, we propose a general framework for constructing carbon-cycle emulators (CCEs) for macroeconomic models. The framework is implemented as a generalized linear multi-reservoir (box) model that conserves key physical quantities and can be customized for specific applications. We consider three versions of the CCE, which we evaluate within a simple representative agent economic model: (i) a three-box setting comparable to DICE-2016, (ii) a four-box extension, and (iii) a four-box version that explicitly captures land-use change. While the three-box model reproduces benchmark results well and the fourth reservoir adds little, incorporating the impact of land-use change on the carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere substantially alters atmospheric carbon stocks, temperature trajectories, and the optimal mitigation path. Second, we investigate pattern-scaling techniques that transform global-mean temperature projections from CEs into spatially heterogeneous warming fields. We show how regional baseline climates, non-uniform warming, and the associated uncertainties propagate into economic damages.

Sarit Maitra

This study aims to use simultaneous quantile regression (SQR) to examine the impact of macroeconomic and financial uncertainty including global pandemic, geopolitical risk on the futures returns of crude oil (ROC). The data for this study is sourced from the FRED (Federal Reserve Economic Database) economic dataset; the importance of the factors have been validated by using variation inflation factor (VIF) and principal component analysis (PCA). To fully understand the combined effect of these factors on WTI, study includes interaction terms in the multi-factor model. Empirical results suggest that changes in ROC can have varying impacts depending on the specific period and market conditions. The results can be used for informed investment decisions and to construct portfolios that are well-balanced in terms of risk and return. Structural breaks, such as changes in global economic conditions or shifts in demand for crude oil, can cause return on crude oil to be sensitive to changes in different time periods. The unique aspect ness of this study also lies in its inclusion of explanatory factors related to the pandemic, geopolitical risk, and inflation.

Leonardo Impett, Fabian Offert

In this paper, we revisit Johanna Drucker's question, "Is there a digital art history?" -- posed exactly a decade ago -- in the light of the emergence of large-scale, transformer-based vision models. While more traditional types of neural networks have long been part of digital art history, and digital humanities projects have recently begun to use transformer models, their epistemic implications and methodological affordances have not yet been systematically analyzed. We focus our analysis on two main aspects that, together, seem to suggest a coming paradigm shift towards a "digital" art history in Drucker's sense. On the one hand, the visual-cultural repertoire newly encoded in large-scale vision models has an outsized effect on digital art history. The inclusion of significant numbers of non-photographic images allows for the extraction and automation of different forms of visual logics. Large-scale vision models have "seen" large parts of the Western visual canon mediated by Net visual culture, and they continuously solidify and concretize this canon through their already widespread application in all aspects of digital life. On the other hand, based on two technical case studies of utilizing a contemporary large-scale visual model to investigate basic questions from the fields of art history and urbanism, we suggest that such systems require a new critical methodology that takes into account the epistemic entanglement of a model and its applications. This new methodology reads its corpora through a neural model's training data, and vice versa: the visual ideologies of research datasets and training datasets become entangled.

M. Abdelrahman

Crisis is a concept that has a long history;it has come to denote moments of rupture and to foreground life and death decisions necessary for its resolution. The recent deployment of the concept in broad social, economic and political spheres has not only given rise to an industry of crisis management but has also established it as a framework through which to conceive, survive and reconstruct the world. The politics of crisis and the power of crisis narratives determine who is responsible for the crisis, who are its victims, who are its casualties and, inevitably, what policies need to be adopted and, later, institutionalized, in order to ‘fix’ the crisis and its outcomes. This article examines the politics of crisis narratives and situates the contributions to this Debate within larger debates on crisis under capitalism. These contributions employ the COVID‐19 experience as a lens to examine how moments of crisis allow economic and political elites to displace the blame for the crisis and its structural causes away from themselves and to institute policies which maintain the status quo, limit the scope for alternatives to emerge, and foreclose debates on fundamental questions of power relations which, inevitably, reproduce the conditions for future crises. [ FROM AUTHOR]

Cihan Aydiner, E. Rider

Immigrants are often pressed to show how they will contribute to a host country, thus proving through their conditions of entry and human capital whether they will be perceived as an asset or burden, and this is juxtaposed with the host country’s institutions offering an improved quality of life, mainly through employment. Seeking employment is often a key factor to be economically assimilated, and in the case of highly educated Turkish migrants, the opportunity to reclaim their previous professional and quality of life statuses. Based on qualitative research, we have examined the experiences of highly educated Turkish people (n = 42) in the recently forced migrant population. Following events including terrorism and the coup on 15 July 2016, Türkiye experienced the highest forced migration in her history. With exiled Turkish migrants, the forced aspect of their migration prompts them to seek a host country that provides safety, and they are also driven to transfer their educational degrees and professional credentials. However, changing careers to become educated and certified in new fields takes time and resources, contributing to a fluctuating economic status and loss of well-being. Once this is regained, their economic situation is improved, but there is still the lost time from the immigration and transfer period. Thus, the process has positive and negative components, but understanding this nuanced process provides opportunities for policy reform that can shorten the time of re-education, increase employability, and support well-being.

Sedigheh Rezaiyan Fardoie, Ebrahim Farbod, Shadi Abbaspour et al.

Objective: With the spread of the global coronavirus and the loss of traditional businesses, many businesses around the world have focused on selling and providing their services online. Digikala Company is also trying to provide services to all compatriots throughout Iran, as in previous waves of the epidemic. The purpose of this study is to investigate the impact of pandemic on the business of Digikala Company and its modeling.Method: The statistical population of this research is large-scale retail companies in Iran, and Digikala Company has been selected as one of the most important retail companies in Iran as a statistical sample using available sampling method. The data collection of the research variables has been done based on the performance of the Digikala company during the Corona era. Statistical data analysis is done using SPSS26 software. In the inferential statistics section, one-sample t-test using the bootstrap method is used. The bootstrap method is used when the sample size is very small and the distribution of the data is not clear (Farbad et al., 2019) and also from the two-sample t-test to compare the components of e-commerce identified, which include the components of demand and human resources, sales center and volume. Transactions before and after Corona, the Friedman test, which is a non-parametric test, is used to rank the components. The validity of the proposed e-commerce model of DigiKala company is checked using the method of variance-oriented structural equations or partial least squares, which is based on the bootstrap method, in SMARTPLS3.3.3 software.Results: A one- sample  Bootstrap t-test was used to identify the factors affecting e-commerce in this company and a conceptual model including operating force absorption, processing, sales centers and the number of transactions of goods affecting e-commerce was proposed. The validity and reliability of the model were confirmed by combined Cronbach's alpha criteria, mean of variance square and convergence validity. Finally, the number 0.89 for the goodness index confirmed the adequacy fit of the proposed model.Conclusion: Due to the corona epidemic conditions, online businesses such as Digikala Company, by considering the influential variables in e-commerce, have succeeded in attracting more power, higher transaction and more revenue in this field, which the research also shows that Is the subject. Structures affecting e-commerce in Digikala during the Corona era along with the impact of the influencing variables were identified and evaluated using the t-test and Friedman's test using the bootstrap method. Finally, according to the highest importance factor, the structure of the sales center was prioritized. After identifying the components, the validity and reliability of the proposed model was checked by the variance-based structural equation test, so that the goodness of fit criterion confirmed the appropriate fit of the model, and the root mean common variance and composite reliability indicators confirmed the validity and reliability of the model.Due to the damage of Corona to businesses, many companies have been forced to downsize their organization and reduce and adjust their human resources, but according to the research conceptual model and the variables examined in the research of many large internet businesses in the world. Like Amazon and Ebay, and including the Digikala company, have prospered in Iran, so that they have faced the increasing demand from their customers.Therefore, to meet the needs of its customers, Digikala not only did not reduce the workforce, but also had to recruit and recruit human resources; On the other hand, due to this increase in the volume of demand, the company has increased its relationship with the sales centers in order to supply its customers' goods and send them, this has caused the amount of financial transactions of this company to grow dramatically, in such a way that it is forced to develop and to expand its hardware and software infrastructures. that the analyzes carried out also show this importance.Considering the current conditions of the society and the increasing growth of technology in the global arena, for further investigation in the future, in addition to the above variables, we can examine other variables such as: the level of access of people in the society to computers or smart systems, the level of Internet literacy of the society (web and related software), the effect of internet speed, the variety of services and products, speeding up transportation, examining the competitive advantage of the company in the field of online payment business, and according to the findings and results of the analysis, solutions and suggestions for prosperity and improvement and provided the development of this organization. It is also suggested that the variable of Internet access and other variables forming demand can be proposed in future studies as variables of new research and as innovation of the model.

Anthony Enisan Akinlo, Segun Michael Ojo

This paper examined the economic consequences of the COVID-19 pandemic on sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) using the historical approach and analysing the policy responses of the region to past crises and their economic consequences. The study employed the manufacturing-value-added share of GDP as a performance indicator. The analysis shows that the wrong policy interventions to past crises led the sub-Saharan African sub-region into its deplorable economic situation. The study observed that the region leapfrogged prematurely to import substitution, export promotion, and global value chains. Based on these experiences, the region should adopt a gradual approach in responding to the COVID-19 economic consequences. The sub-region should first address relevant areas of sustainability, including proactive investment in research and development to develop homegrown technology, upgrade essential infrastructural facilities, develop security infrastructure, and strengthen the financial sector.

Gustav A. Horn

Abstract This month marks the 75th anniversary of the death of John Maynard Keynes. He was one of the most important economists of the 20th century, if not of any century. Yet his teachings and advice were already highly controversial during his lifetime. This applied even more after his death. Keynesian ideas dominated economic policy in the postwar period. But since the 1970s at the latest, their intellectual appeal began to wane noticeably in the face of concurrently rising unemployment, national debt and inflation. Recently, however, a trend reversal has become apparent, which is related to mistakes in economic policy as well as to new challenges.

Halyna Zavarika

In the article it has been considered the issues of opportunities for the development of domestic tourism in the eastern territories of Ukraine, which have experienced problems due to the conflict and restrictions on international and domestic mobility due to the COVID-19 pandemic. It has been established that in the East of Ukraine there are been favorable conditions for the development of domestic rural tourism. It has been proposed to start the development of resort and recreational potential of the eastern territories, namely the creation of a resort town in Starobilsk, Luhansk region, which will specialize in providing medical rehabilitation services for adults, children, disabled people with musculoskeletal diseases, neurological, gynecological diseases, consequences of polytraumas. It has been noted about the need to develop a strategic program for the development of domestic tourism in the eastern territories. It has been established that taking into account the human development index is a necessary condition for the study of post-conflict development of territories. It has been stayted the most promising for the rapid development of the eastern territories is "green tourism". It has been proved that the main driving force of tourism development in post-conflict conditions and restrictions on mobility is to follow the rules of quarantine and search for alternative types of tourism, which are proposed in this paper. The proposals identified in this paper will be useful to many countries whose tourism industry has suffered heavy losses as a result of a pandemic or a complex conflict situation.

E. Bassuk, L. Weinreb, J. Buckner et al.