Markus Ahlers, Ingo Allekotte, Jaime Alvarez-Muniz
et al.
After a successful kick-off meeting in 2021. two workshops in 2022 and 2023 on the future Global Cosmic-Ray Observatory (GCOS) focused mainly on a straw man design of the detector and science possibilities for astro- and particle physics. About 100 participants gathered for in-person and hybrid panel discussions. In this report, we summarize these discussions, present a preliminary straw-man design for GCOS and collect short write-ups of the flash talks given during the focus sessions.
Coincident multimessenger observations of cosmic sources can offer numerous benefits, especially when used in the context of synergistic astrophysics. One significant advantage is enhancing the detection significance of separate detectors by correlating their data and assuming joint emission. We have formulated an approach for updating the Bayesian posterior probability of an astrophysical origin, namely $p_{\rm astro}$, relying on multimessenger coincidences assuming an emission model. The description is applicable to any combination of messengers. We demonstrated the formalism for the gravitational waves and high-energy neutrinos case. Applying our method to the public data of candidate coincident high-energy neutrinos with subthreshold gravitational-wave triggers, we found that in the case of highly energetic neutrino coincidences, $p_{\rm astro}$ can increase from approximately $\sim 0.1$ to $\sim 0.9$. The amount of improvement depends on the assumed joint emission model. If models are trusted, the marked improvement makes subthreshold detections much more confident. Moreover, the model dependency can also be used to test the consistency of different models. This work is a crucial step toward the goal of uniting all detectors on equal footing into a statistically integrated, Earth-sized observatory for comprehensive multimessenger astrophysics.
I take a reflection of the mathematical method of integration applied in physics and astrophysics in the research. I examine the theoretical premise of integration entailed in its applications in the fields, and with qualitative comparative analysis, regard the inconsistency of the mathematical method in physical and astrophysical theories. I seek to uncover the formal science’s affinity to the natural sciences in the research, and assert that number theory and set theory are better substitutes in modern physics and astrophysics. With a relativistic (astro-)physics perspective, I discuss and compare the representations of causality, capacities for deviations, and error tolerance with the methodological approach. I discuss the implications with the example of the Cosmic Microwave Background, and conclude with the teleology of the (astro-)physical sciences.
Floor S. Broekgaarden, Sharan Banagiri, Ethan Payne
How many gravitational-wave observations from double compact object mergers have we seen to date? This seemingly simple question surprisingly yields a somewhat ambiguous answer that depends on the chosen data-analysis pipeline, detection threshold and other underlying assumptions. To illustrate this we provide visualizations of the number of existing detections from double compact object mergers by the end of the third observing run (O3) based on recent results from the literature. Additionally, we visualize the expected number of observations from future-generation detectors, highlighting the possibility of up to millions of detections per year by the time next-generation ground-based detectors like Cosmic Explorer and Einstein Telescope come online. We present a publicly available code that highlights the exponential growth in gravitational-wave observations in the coming decades and the exciting prospects of gravitational-wave (astro)physics.
Tejaswi Venumadhav, Barak Zackay, Javier Roulet
et al.
We report the detection of new binary black hole merger events in the publicly available data from the second observing run of advanced LIGO and advanced Virgo (O2). The mergers were discovered using the new search pipeline described in Venumadhav et al. [Phys. Rev. D 100, 023011 (2019)], and are above the detection thresholds as defined in Abbott et al. (LIGO Scientific and Virgo Collaborations) [Phys. Rev. X 9, 031040 (2019).] Three of the mergers (GW170121, GW170304, GW170727) have inferred probabilities of being of astrophysical origin $p_{\rm astro} > 0.98$. The remaining three (GW170425, GW170202, GW170403) are less certain, with $p_{\rm astro}$ ranging from 0.5 to 0.8. The newly found mergers largely share the statistical properties of previously reported events, with the exception of GW170403, the least secure event, which has a highly negative effective spin parameter $χ_{\rm eff}$ . The most secure new event, GW170121 ($p_{\rm astro} > 0.99$), is also notable due to its inferred negative value of $χ_{\rm eff}$, which is inconsistent with being positive at the ~95.8% confidence level. The new mergers nearly double the sample of gravitational wave events reported from O2, and present a substantial opportunity to explore the statistics of the binary black hole population in the Universe. The number of detected events is not surprising since we estimate that the detection volume of our pipeline may be larger than that of other pipelines by as much as a factor of two (with significant uncertainties in the estimate). The increase in volume is larger when the constituent detectors of the network have very different sensitivities, as is likely to be the case in current and future runs.
Precision measurements of charged cosmic rays have recently been carried out by space-born (e.g. AMS-02), or ground experiments (e.g. HESS). These measured data are important for the studies of astro-physical phenomena, including supernova remnants, cosmic ray propagation, solar physics and dark matter. Those scenarios usually contain a number of free parameters that need to be adjusted by observed data. Some techniques, such as Markov Chain Monte Carlo and MultiNest, are developed in order to solve the above problem. However, it is usually required a computing farm to apply those tools. In this paper, a genetic algorithm for finding the optimum parameters for cosmic ray injection and propagation is presented. We find that this algorithm gives us the same best fit results as the Markov Chain Monte Carlo but consuming less computing power by nearly 2 orders of magnitudes.
Luis A. Anchordoqui, Susanna M. Weber, Jorge F. Soriano
The Fermi paradox is the discrepancy between the strong likelihood of alien intelligent life emerging (under a wide variety of assumptions) and the absence of any visible evidence for such emergence. We use this intriguing unlikeness to derive an upper limit on the fraction of living intelligent species that develop communication technology <ξ_{biotec}>. <...> indicates average over all the multiple manners civilizations can arise, grow, and develop such technology, starting at any time since the formation of our Galaxy in any location inside it. Following Drake, we factorize <ξ_{biotec}> as the product of the fractions in which: (i) life arises, (ii) intelligence develops, and (iii) communication technology is developed. In this approximation, the number of communicating intelligent civilizations that exist in the Galaxy at any given time is found to be N = <ζ_{astro}> <ξ_{biotec}> L_τ, where <ζ_{astro}> is the average production rate of potentially habitable rocky planets with a long-lasting (~ 4 Gyr) ecoshell and L_τ is the length of time that a typical civilization communicates. We estimate the production rate of exoplanets in the habitable zone and using recent determinations of the rate of gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) and their luminosity function, we calculate the probability that a life-threatening (lethal) GRB could make a planet inhospitable to life, yielding <ζ_{astro}> ~ 2 \times 10^{-3} yr^-1. Our current measurement of N =0 then implies <ζ_{biotec}> < 5 \times 10^{-3} at the 95\% C.L., where we have taken L_τ> 0.3 Myr such that c L_τ>> propagation distances of Galactic scales (~ 10 kpc), ensuring that any advanced civilization living in the Milky Way would be able to communicate with us.
Christoph Deil, Catherine Boisson, Karl Kosack
et al.
In gamma-ray astronomy, a variety of data formats and proprietary software have been traditionally used, often developed for one specific mission or experiment. Especially for ground-based imaging atmospheric Cherenkov telescopes (IACTs), data and software are mostly private to the collaborations operating the telescopes. However, there is a general movement in science towards the use of open data and software. In addition, the next-generation IACT instrument, the Cherenkov Telescope Array (CTA), will be operated as an open observatory. We have created a Github organisation at https://github.com/open-gamma-ray-astro where we are developing high-level data format specifications. A public mailing list was set up at https://lists.nasa.gov/mailman/listinfo/open-gamma-ray-astro and a first face-to-face meeting on the IACT high-level data model and formats took place in April 2016 in Meudon (France). This open multi-mission effort will help to accelerate the development of open data formats and open-source software for gamma-ray astronomy, leading to synergies in the development of analysis codes and eventually better scientific results (reproducible, multi-mission). This write-up presents this effort for the first time, explaining the motivation and context, the available resources and process we use, as well as the status and planned next steps for the data format specifications. We hope that it will stimulate feedback and future contributions from the gamma-ray astronomy community.
The CHEERS (CHEmical Enrichment RGS Sample) observations of clusters of galaxies with XMM-Newton have shown to be valuable to constrain the chemical evolution of the universe. The soft X-ray spectrum contains lines of the most abundant metals from N to Ni, which provide relatively accurate abundances that can be compared to supernova enrichment models. The accuracy of the abundances is currently limited by systematic uncertainties introduced by the available instruments and uncertainties in the modeling of the spectra, which are of the order of 20-30%. We discuss the possible gain of extending the current samples at low and high redshift. We conclude that expanding the samples would be expensive in terms of exposure time, but will not yield significantly improved results, because the current samples already reach the systematic limits. New instrumentation, like Astro-H2 and ATHENA, and improvements to the atomic databases are needed to make significant advances in this field.
Eric G. Speckhard, Kenny C. Y. Ng, John F. Beacom
et al.
Dark matter decays or annihilations that produce line-like spectra may be smoking-gun signals. However, even such distinctive signatures can be mimicked by astrophysical or instrumental causes. We show that velocity spectroscopy-the measurement of energy shifts induced by relative motion of source and observer-can separate these three causes with minimal theoretical uncertainties. The principal obstacle has been energy resolution, but upcoming experiments will reach the required 0.1% level. As an example, we show that the imminent Astro-H mission can use Milky Way observations to separate possible causes of the 3.5-keV line. We discuss other applications.
Clusters of galaxies are embedded in halos of optically thin, gravitationally stratified, weakly magnetized plasma at the system's virial temperature. Due to radiative cooling and anisotropic heat conduction, such intracluster medium (ICM) is subject to local instabilities, which are combinations of the thermal, magnetothermal and heat-flux-driven buoyancy instabilities. If the ICM rotates significantly, its stability properties are substantially modified and, in particular, also the magnetorotational instability (MRI) can play an important role. We study simple models of rotating cool-core clusters and we demonstrate that the MRI can be the dominant instability over significant portions of the clusters, with possible implications for the dynamics and evolution of the cool cores. Our results give further motivation for measuring the rotation of the ICM with future X-ray missions such as ASTRO-H and ATHENA.
The Fermi-LAT observation of a gamma-ray excess from the galactic-centre, as well as the PAMELA, AMS, and AMS-2 anti-particle excesses, and the recent claim of a Fermi-LAT excess in the Reticulum-2 dwarf galaxy have been put forward as signatures compatible with of neutralino dark matter. These are of particular interest as the neutralino annihilation models which fit these observations might have observable consequences from radio to gamma-ray emission. Since dark matter is expected to be a major matter constituent of cosmic structure, these multi-frequency consequences should also be common to structures across the mass spectrum. Thus, in this work we make predictions for the multi-frequency spectra of three well-known sources dominated by dark matter, e.g. the Coma cluster, the galaxy M81, and the Draco dwarf galaxy using models favoured by dark matter interpretations of the aforementioned observations. We pay special attention to the consequences for these models when their cross-sections are renormalised to reproduce the recent gamma-ray excess observed in the Reticulum-2 dwarf galaxy, which throw a dark matter interpretation of this excess into doubt. We find that the multi-frequency data of Coma and Draco disfavour the dark matter interpretation of the AMS, PAMELA and Fermi anti-particle excess. Models derived from Fermi-LAT galactic centre observations present somewhat lesser conflicts. We determine the detection prospects of the Square Kilometre Array, the Cherenkov Telescope Array, as well as the ASTROGAM and ASTRO-H satellites for the studied models. This demonstrates that ASTRO-H is well positioned to probe the X-ray emissions from neutralino annihilation. Thus, multi-frequency observation with the next generation experiments will allow for unprecedented sensitivity to the neutralino parameter space.
Whether the new line at ~3.5 keV, recently detected in different samples of galaxy clusters, Andromeda galaxy and central part of our Galaxy, is due to Potassium emission lines, is now unclear. By using the latest astrophysical atomic emission line database AtomDB v. 3.0.2, we show that the most prospective method to directly check its Potassium origin will be the study of K XIX emission line complex at ~3.7 keV with future X-ray imaging spectrometers such as Soft X-ray spectometer on-board Astro-H mission or microcalorimeter on-board Micro-X sounding rocket experiment. To further reduce the remaining (factor ~3-5) uncertainty of the 3.7/3.5 keV ratio one should perform more precise modeling including removal of significant spatial inhomogeneities, detailed treatment of background components, and further extension of the modeled energy range.
High energy emissions from supernovae (SNe), originated from newly formed radioactive species, provide direct evidence of nucleosynthesis at SN explosions. However, observational difficulties in the MeV range have so far allowed the signal detected only from the extremely nearby core-collapse SN 1987A. No solid detection has been reported for thermonuclear SNe Ia, despite the importance of the direct confirmation of the formation of 56Ni, which is believed to be a key ingredient in their nature as distance indicators. In this paper, we show that the new generation hard X-ray and soft gamma-ray instruments, on board Astro-H and NuStar, are capable of detecting the signal, at least at a pace of once in a few years, opening up this new window for studying SN explosion and nucleosynthesis.
Andrew C. Liebmann, Andrew C. Fabian, Sachiko Tsuruta
Using the latest 70 month Swift-BAT catalog we examined hard X-ray selected Seyfert I galaxies which are relatively little known and little studied, and yet potentially promising to test the ionized relativistic reflection model. From this list we chose 13 sources which have been observed by XMM-Newton for less than 20 ks, in order to explore the broad band soft to hard X-ray properties with the analysis of combined XMM-Newton and Swift data. Out of these we found seven sources which exhibit potentially promising features of the relativistic disc reflection, such as a strong soft excess, a large Compton hump and/or a broadened Fe line. Longer observations of four of these sources with the currently operating satellite missions, such as Suzaku, XMM-Newton and NuStar and two others by such future missions as ASTRO-H, will be invaluable, in order to better understand the relativistic disc reflection closest to the central black hole and constrain such important effects of strong gravity as the black hole spin.