Hasil untuk "Trade associations"

C. Kroll, Anne Warchold, P. Pradhan

The Agenda 2030 with its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) provides the framework that all United Nations (UN) member states have pledged to fulfill. The achievement of this agenda crucially depends on whether humankind will be able to maximize synergies and resolve existing trade-offs between the SDGs. We provide the first analysis of future interactions for projected SDG trends until 2030 within and between goals, and we analyze how trade-offs and synergies have evolved in the recent past globally. For certain goals, we find positive developments with notable synergies in our projections, especially for SDGs 1, 3, 7, 8, and 9: Poverty alleviation and strengthening the economy, rooted in innovation, and modern infrastructure, therefore continue to be the basis upon which many of the other SDGs can be achieved. However, especially SDGs 11, 13, 14, 16, and 17 will continue to have notable trade-offs, as well as non-associations with the other goals in the future, which emphasizes the need to foster innovations and policies that can make our cities and communities more sustainable, as well as strengthen institutions and spur climate action. We show examples of a successful transformation of trade-offs into synergies that should be emulated in other areas to create a virtuous cycle of SDG progress. The alarming inability to overcome certain persistent trade-offs we have found, and indeed the deterioration for some SDGs, can seriously threaten the achievement of the Agenda 2030.

A. Agrawal

Biodiversity is defined by trait-differences between organisms, and biologists have long sought to predict associations among ecologically important traits: why do some traits trade off while others are co-expressed? Why might some trait associations hold across levels of organization, from individuals and genotypes to populations and species, while others only occur at one level? Understanding such scaling is a core biological problem, bearing on the evolution of ecological strategies as well as forecasting responses to environmental change. Explicitly considering the hierarchy of biodiversity and expectations at each scale (individual change, evolution within and among populations, and species turn-over) is necessary as we work towards a predictive framework in evolutionary ecology. Within species, a trait may have an association with another trait due to phenotypic plasticity, genetic correlation, or population-level local adaptation. Plastic responses are often adaptive and yet individuals have a fixed pool of resources; thus, positive and negative trait associations can be generated by immediate environmental needs and energetic demands. Genetic variation and covariation for traits within a population are typically shaped by varying natural selection in space and time. Although genetic correlations are infrequently long-term constraints, they may indicate competing organismal demands. Traits are often quantitatively differentiated (local adaptation) among populations, although selection rarely favors qualitatively different strategies until populations become reproductively isolated. Across species, niche specialization to particular habitats or biotic interactions may determine trait correlations, a subset of which are termed "strategic trade-offs" because they are a consequence of adaptive specialization. Across scales, constraints within species often do not apply as new species evolve, and conversely, trait correlations observed across populations or species may not be reflected within populations. I give examples of such scale-dependent trait associations and their causes across taxonomic groups and ecosystems, and in the final section of the paper I specifically evaluate leaf economic spectrum traits and their associations with plant defense against herbivory. Scale-dependent predictions emerge for understanding plant ecology holistically, and this approach can be fruitfully applied more generally in evolutionary ecology. Adaptive specialization and community context are two of the primary drivers of trade-offs and syndromes across biological scales.

Igor Burstyn, Louis Anthony Cox, Yang Cao et al.

Abstract Background Epidemiological studies that rely on biomarkers of exposure typically estimate each subject’s exposure from measurements on that individual. If repeated measurements of biomarkers of exposure are obtained on an individual, they are typically averaged. This averaging helps to reduce error from within-person variability if average exposure is a better measure of the biologically effective dose than the instantaneous one. However, these analyses then often ignore the residual within-person variation in the averages of measurements. Not considering this variation can bias effect estimates and lead to inaccurate risk assessment. Methods We developed software (“calculators”) that help design studies of continuous and binary outcomes that rely on biomarkers of exposure. An independent panel of experts was employed to peer review the models and answer questions regarding their use and best practices for the design of epidemiology studies that utilize biomonitoring data for the exposure assessment. Results Web-based tools were developed to estimate the required sample sizes, number of repeated measurements, and the trade-offs between power and bias in simple linear and logistic regression models under classical (independent, additive, normally distributed, homogeneous variance) measurement error assumptions. Application of the calculators was illustrated in case studies of investigation of the associations between urinary levels of bisphenols during pregnancy and fetal growth, and urinary levels of triclosan and neurodevelopment in children. Best practices are recommended for the design of epidemiology studies that utilize biomonitoring data for the exposure assessment. Conclusions Calculators have been developed and vetted by a panel of experts. They are designed to estimate sample size (number of individuals sampled and number of samples per individual), power and bias in epidemiological studies that use biomonitoring to assess each subject’s exposure in the presence of classical measurement errors. These user-friendly tools account for measurement error and allow researchers to design more accurate and appropriately powered studies, ultimately improving quality of public health research.

Prexha Kapoor, Sourav Panigrahi, Yogita Singh et al.

Dietary fibres, especially non-starch polysaccharides including β-glucan and arabinoxylan from cereal grains, are vital for human health due to their role in lowering cholesterol, regulating glycaemic index, and reducing the risk of chronic diseases like type II diabetes. A daily intake containing 2% or more β-glucan is often associated with health benefits. Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), a staple crop and major source of dietary carbohydrates, contains limited variability for these fibre components compared with its wild relatives. To explore genetic resources for fibre biofortification, we evaluated a panel of 478 wheat genotypes including 37 wild relatives, 6 tetraploid, and 435 hexaploid wheat accessions for β-glucan, arabinoxylan, alongside protein, and starch content. The panel showed wide variation, with mean values of 0.93% for β-glucan, 5.77% for arabinoxylan, 13.37% for protein, and 68.51% for starch. Among wild relatives, Aegilops peregrina and Aegilops kotschyi emerged as superior sources of high β-glucan and arabinoxylan, whereas modern cultivars generally exhibited lower values. Significant positive correlations were observed between β-glucan and protein, and negative associations with starch and thousand-grain weight, indicating potential trade-offs in grain composition. These findings highlight the untapped potential of wild genetic resources for enhancing the nutritional quality of wheat and provide promising candidates for pre-breeding and biofortification strategies aimed at improving dietary fibre in staple foods.

Generoso Immediato

In direct response to requests for a logico-mathematical test of the conjecture, we formally disprove a recently conjectured artificial intelligence trade-off between epistemic certainty and scope in its published universal hyperbolic product form, as introduced in Philosophy and Technology. Certainty is defined as the worst-case correctness probability over the input space, and scope as the sum of the Kolmogorov complexities of the input and output sets. Using standard facts from coding theory and algorithmic information theory, we show, first, that when the conjecture is instantiated with prefix (self-delimiting, prefix-free) Kolmogorov complexity, it leads to an internal inconsistency, and second, that when it is instantiated with plain Kolmogorov complexity, it is refuted by a constructive counterexample. These results establish a main theorem: contrary to the conjecture's claim, no universal "certainty-scope" hyperbola holds as a general bound under the published definitions. We further show that a subsequent "entropy-based" revision, replacing the Kolmogorov scope with Shannon joint entropy and redefining the epistemic certainty level accordingly, cannot restore universality either.

Fayyaz Ahmad, Nabila Abid, Junaid Aftab et al.

Addressing the urgent challenge of climate change is a paramount global concern, with European economies showcasing commitment through the ambitious European Green Deal, COP, and sustainable development goals. However, the region's reliance on fossil fuels raises questions about the initiatives affecting the environmental neutrality goals in Europe. To find an answer to this, the present study investigates the impact of energy intensity and environmental tax revenues on environmental management efforts in terms of air, water, and waste pollution abatement in Europe by utilizing data spanning 1994 to 2020 for major European economies that held over 95 % of European economic output. The sample is grouped into two panels based on economic growth level. The study employs advanced econometric techniques to perform the preliminary checks, and GMM-PVR is used as the main study model. Aggregate panel findings reveal significant associations between energy intensity, environmental tax revenues, and environmental management. Notably, higher energy intensity is positively linked to increased environmental management activities, reflecting a commitment to address abatement goals and indicating funds are allocated toward pollution mitigation, aligning with Europe's emphasis on sustainability. Foreign direct investment has a negative relationship with environmental management. However, in Panel A, environmental tax revenues, economic growth, and trade openness reveal a negative impact on environmental management, suggesting that intense economic activities surpass the environmental tax revenue efforts to abate pollution, unlike Panel B, which is effective in pollution reduction. The study's policy implications stress enhancing the energy efficiency of economic giants while simultaneously strengthening mechanisms for utilizing environmental tax revenues and reinforcing environmental regulations to align foreign direct investment with sustainable practices. International collaboration is essential to ensure trade relations align with environmental goals, contributing to global efforts to combat climate change.

Julia S. Sisti, Samuel E. Packard, Janna Metzler

Abstract Background Symptoms of long COVID can profoundly impact affected individuals’ functioning, including their ability to participate in social activities. While individuals experiencing long COVID symptoms frequently report loneliness, few studies to date have investigated whether loneliness is more common among those with symptoms compared to those without. We examined associations between long COVID symptoms and loneliness among World Trade Center Health Registry (WTCHR) enrollees. Methods Among WTCHR enrollees who reported an acute COVID-19 infection in 2022-23 on a self-administered survey, we used modified Poisson regression to estimate multivariable-adjusted prevalence ratios (PR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for associations of self-reported long COVID symptoms (any vs. none, selected from a predefined symptom list) with loneliness. Overall loneliness was assessed with the 6-item de Jong Gierveld loneliness scale (range: 0–6); social and emotional loneliness were assessed with their respective subscales (range: 0–3). We also assessed whether level of social support prior to COVID-19 infection modified associations of long COVID symptoms with loneliness. Results Analyses included 5,692 enrollees (mean age: 62 years); prevalence of loneliness was 61%. In fully adjusted models, enrollees who reported any long COVID symptoms had higher prevalence of loneliness compared to those without symptoms (PR = 1.19, 95% CI:1.13, 1.25). Associations were somewhat stronger for emotional loneliness than for social loneliness (PR = 1.22, 95% CI:1.15, 1.29 and PR = 1.12, 95% CI:1.07, 1.18, respectively). Effect modification by social support was not observed on either the additive or multiplicative scale. Conclusion Long COVID symptoms were associated with prevalence of loneliness in a sample of primarily older adults. As loneliness itself is associated with subsequent adverse health outcomes, addressing loneliness among people living with long COVID may help prevent further reductions in quality of life.

Ishwinder Battoo, Lynette A. Hart

Illegal wildlife trade (IWT) is a major driver of biodiversity loss, threatening countless species, including pangolins (Pholidota: Manidae) and vervet monkeys (Chlorocebus pygerythrus). This study analyzed causes of admission, medical findings, and outcomes of orphaned pangolins and vervet monkeys at the Lilongwe Wildlife Centre (LWC) in Malawi from 2019–2023 to understand the impact of these species’ common threats. Medical records of 83 orphaned animals (34 pangolins, 49 vervets) were reviewed. Chi-squared tests assessed associations between variables. IWT was the primary cause of admission for pangolins (97.1%) and vervet monkeys (53.1%). Pangolins confiscated from IWT often presented as dehydrated (48.5%), underweight (42.4%), and lethargic (27.3%), with necropsies frequently revealing pneumonia (83.3%) and gastric ulcers (50%). Top pangolin outcomes included death (36.4%) and release (30.3%). Vervets admitted from IWT were either ex-pets or intercepted while being sold as pets or bushmeat. Ex-pets all exhibited unremarkable physical exams, while intercepted vervets often displayed injuries from rope (38.5%) and malnourishment (23.1%). Top vervet outcomes included remaining in care at LWC (80.8%) and release (7.7%). Admissions of both species peaked during the months of September through February, aligning closely with breeding cycles and the hot, wet season (November-April). This study highlights the main threats these species face and underscores the need for targeted conservation strategies to mitigate these threats. Understanding clinical trends and causes of admission can inform rescue, rehabilitation, and release efforts, contributing to the conservation of these ecologically vital species.

K. Aryal, T. Maraseni, A. Apan

As an important domain of sustainability science, trade-offs in ecosystem services (ES) is crucial for spatial planning to sustainably manage natural resources while satisfying the needs of local and non-local beneficiaries. However, there is still a growing debate in understanding, characterization, and visualization of the trade-off relationships. This paper systematically reviews a total of 473 articles, published in the last 16 years (2005-2020) through 135 academic journals, based on empirical studies conducted in over 80 countries, and led by the researcher from over 50 countries. Trade-off relationships are often visualized as spatial associations of ES, but very few articles have characterized trade-offs as the causal interaction among ES. More than two-thirds of the studies were carried out in temperate and sub-tropical regions, but we depicted an under-representation of the critical ecosystems in tropics. About 90% of the articles were based on funded research but the involvement of government institutions was very low (<10%). Trade-off analysis was based only on biophysical constraints of the ecosystem, as observed in more than 80% of the selected articles, without due regards of the divergence in utility functions of different stakeholders and ecosystem beneficiaries. This study identifies a total of 198 pairs of conflicting ES, of which the trade-off between crop production and carbon/climate services has the highest records of observation (i.e., as identified by 20% of the total studies). Further, this study identifies the major drivers (i.e., ecological and social) and stakeholders (i.e., land users and government agencies) of trade-off in ES, and major gaps in the analytical approach to understand the trade-off relationships. Based on our findings, we have discussed and recommended a number of research trajectories, including trans-disciplinary research considering both biophysical constraints and utility functions, in order to guide the future direction of sustainability science through the creation of win-win scenarios.

Muntasir Murshed

This paper attempts to empirically analyze the compatibility of national trade liberalization policies with regards to promoting widespread use of renewable energy resources across 71 low, lower-middle and upper-middle income countries from South Asia, East Asia, Pacific, Central Asia, Latin America, Caribbean islands and Sub-Saharan Africa. Annual time series data from 2000 to 2017 is employed to perform panel data cointegration and regression analyses. The results from the cointegration analyses show long-run associations between trade liberalization policies and the renewable energy consumption indicators. The Instrumental Variable Two-Stage Least Squares panel data estimator is employed to control for the endogeneity in the dataset. The overall results broadly point towards the effectiveness of greater trade openness in facilitating renewable energy transition only in the low-income economies while prolonging the transition periods in the lower and upper-middle income countries. The marginal impact of a rise in the trade openness index is estimated to enhance the renewable energy share in total energy consumption within low-income countries by 0.24% as opposed to lowering this share by 0.19% within lower-middle income economies. However, trade liberalization is found to attribute to greater efficiency of renewable energy use across all the three income groups. Thus, these findings have critically important policy implications for the respective governments.

Martin Hoefer, Carmine Ventre, Lisa Wilhelmi

The recent banking crisis has again emphasized the importance of understanding and mitigating systemic risk in financial networks. In this paper, we study a market-driven approach to rescue a bank in distress based on the idea of claims trading, a notion defined in Chapter 11 of the U.S. Bankruptcy Code. We formalize the idea in the context of financial networks by Eisenberg and Noe. For two given banks v and w, we consider the operation that w takes over some claims of v and in return gives liquidity to v to ultimately rescue v. We study the structural properties and computational complexity of decision and optimization problems for several variants of claims trading. When trading incoming edges of v, we show that there is no trade in which both banks v and w strictly improve their assets. We therefore consider creditor-positive trades, in which v profits strictly and w remains indifferent. For a given set C of incoming edges of v, we provide an efficient algorithm to compute payments by w that result in maximal assets of v. When the set C must also be chosen, the problem becomes weakly NP-hard. Our main result here is a bicriteria FPTAS to compute an approximate trade. The approximate trade results in nearly the optimal amount of assets of v in any exact trade. Our results extend to the case in which banks use general monotone payment functions and the emerging clearing state can be computed efficiently. In contrast, for trading outgoing edges of v, the goal is to maximize the increase in assets for the creditors of v. Notably, for these results the characteristics of the payment functions of the banks are essential. For payments ranking creditors one by one, we show NP-hardness of approximation within a factor polynomial in the network size, when the set of claims C is part of the input or not. Instead, for proportional payments, our results indicate more favorable conditions.

Carlos Góes

Can trade integration induce product innovation? I document that countries that joined the European Union (EU) started producing more product varieties, investing more in R&D, and trading more compared to candidate countries that did not join at a given horizon. Additionally, I show that a plausibly exogenous increase in market access increases the probability of a given country starting production of and exporting a given product. To rationalize this reduced-form evidence, I propose a new quantitative framework that integrates the forces of specialization and market size. This is a dynamic general equilibrium model of frictional trade and endogenous growth with arbitrarily many asymmetric countries that nests the Eaton-Kortum model of trade and the Romer growth model as special cases. The key result is an analytical expression to decompose gains from trade into dynamic and static components. In this framework, the product innovation growth rate increases with higher market access. Finally, a quantitative version of the model suggests that: (a) the EU enlargement increased its long-run yearly growth rate by about 0.10pp; and (b) dynamic gains can account for between 65-90% of total welfare gains from trade.

Yin-Ting Zhang, Wei-Xing Zhou

Food security is a critical issue closely linked to human being. With the increasing demand for food, international trade has become the main access to supplementing domestic food shortages, which not only alleviates local food shocks, but also exposes economies to global food crises. In this paper, we construct four temporal international crop trade networks (iCTNs) based on trade values of maize, rice, soybean and wheat, and describe the structural evolution of different iCTNs from{ {1993}} to 2018. We find that the size of all the four iCTNs expanded from{ {1993}} to 2018 with more participants and larger trade values. Our results show that the iCTNs not only become tighter according to the increasing in network density and clustering coefficient, but also get more similar. We also find that the iCTNs are not always disassortative, unlike the world cereal trade networks and other international commodity trade networks. The degree assortative coefficients depend on degree directions and crop types. The analysis about assortativity also indicates that economies with high out-degrees tend to connect with economies with low in-degrees and low out-degrees. Additionally, we compare the structure of the four iCTNs to enhance our understanding of the international food trade system. Although the overall evolutionary patterns of different iCTNs are similar, some crops exhibit idiosyncratic trade patterns. It highlights the need to consider different crop networks' idiosyncratic features while making food policies. Our findings about the dynamics of the iCTNs play an important role in understanding vulnerabilities in the global food system.

V. P. Kirilenko, T. A. Abramova

The study of the Institute of Customs Control is part of international integration processes. Under the rapidly changing international world facts, the international trade turnover in some directions is decreasing, and in others it is increasing at times, which affects the economy of all countries, their compliance with modern trends, part of all these processes is customs control, as one of the types of control at the state border, requiring the national security of states. The article compares the institute of customs control in the EAEU and the EU. On this basis, a comparison is made according to a number of criteria and key features. The legal regime of goods under customs control, its beginning, completion and correlation with other customs institutions are investigated. The general competence of customs authorities in the field of customs control is commented on. The circumstances of the goods being under customs control in accordance with the legislation of the EAEU and the EU on customs regulation are analyzed. As a result of comparing the institute of customs control in the EAEU and the EU, both similar and different features were identified. The comparison showed a mixed picture, since the two associations are at different stages of political and economic development, and are also characterized by different historical and geographical features.Aim. Study of the main criteria of the Customs Control Institute in the Eurasian Economic Union and the European Union.Tasks. Characteristics of the economic unions of the EAEU and the EU, as well as the study of forms of customs control in the EAEU and disclosure of customs control in the EU.Methods. Comparative legal analysis of international, supranational and customs law, as well as the study and analysis of popular science literature, description and generalization of the material in the process of research.Results. The protection of the security of the State is directly related to economic activity, namely, with the constantly flowing and increasing pace of international trade. States, uniting in unions, form a single legal field in which they create a regulatory framework. The EU introduced the institute of customs control earlier than the EAEU, since the EAEU relied on European experience when creating legislation regulating the customs area. With this in mind, this institute has similar goals and elements of the purpose of its conduct and holding.Conclusion. Actively developing integration processes lead to an increase in world trade turnover and increased control at interstate borders. Every state, and with it the unions, strive for safe and fast trade. Many elements become such tools, one of them is customs control. An institution that  controls the legality, security and mutual cooperation of customs authorities and participants in foreign economic activity.

Qiang Bie, Shijin Wang, Wenli Qiang et al.

The adoption of the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) contribute to addressing the multiple and complex challenges faced by humankind. In particular, the increasing impact of climate change and globalization represent a great challenge for the sustainable development of Arctic countries and efforts are needed to measure, assess, and compare the progress toward SDGs and the trends in this region. This study used 69 indicators closely related to Arctic countries and a composite indicator approach to assess their sustainability performance. SDG interlinkages were also assessed through Spearman's rank order correlation. The results showed that the sustainable development of Arctic countries gradually improved from 2000 to 2020, with increasing scores recorded for 82% of the goals and 73% of the indicators. Overall, significant progress was observed in the SDG 10 (reduction of inequality), SDG 3 (health improvement), and SDG 4 (quality of education). The highest-ranking scores were obtained for poverty reduction (SDG 1), SDG 3, and climate actions (SDG 13) in 2020. Over the 21-year period, Sweden reached the highest overall score for sustainable development, and Russia showed the greatest improvement. Synergies dominated over trade-offs among and within SDGs. SDGs 1, 3, 9, 10, and 11 presented a relatively higher proportion of synergies, while higher proportions of trade-offs were observed for the 8–9, 8–11, 3–12, and 10–12 SDG pairs. The associations of industry development with clean energy use and environmental conservation were strengthened during the study period. However, the performance varied greatly for different indicators, goals, and their correlations among Arctic countries. The results indicate that the main challenges for these countries in relation to SDGs consist in promoting an inclusive economic model as well as sustainable consumption and production patterns.

Haowen Lin, Hong Yun

Understanding the effects of human modification on ecosystem services is critical for effectively managing multiple services and achieving long-term sustainability. The historical dynamics of ecosystem services are important for detecting the impacts before and after intensive modification and deserve further study. To this end, we quantified the spatiotemporal dynamics of 11 ecosystem services across the Sihu agricultural watershed in 1954, 1983, 2001, and 2018. We used the Spearman coefficient, self-organized maps clustering, and redundancy analysis to explore the spatial patterns and potential modification drivers of temporal variations of ecosystem service provision. The results revealed the following: (1) The spatial correlations among ecosystem services in a single year were inconsistent with the ecosystem service change associations during two-time steps. The snapshot correlations at one time led to misunderstandings (such as water yield and runoff control or soil carbon sequestration, and habitat quality changed direction from synergy to trade-off) and missed synergies (such as water purification and recreational potential); (2) Most ecosystem services could be synergetic in one bundle with multifunctionality before intensive modification, but later transformed to single or limited services dominated bundles, especially in lake-polder areas; (3) Lake reclamation and hydraulic infrastructure were the most significant modification indicators explaining the variation of ecosystem services (30.9% of variance explained by lake reclamation in 1954, 38.2% of variance explained by hydraulic infrastructure in 2018). Meanwhile, changes in dominant drivers also indicated the transition from lake-based ecosystem service supply to engineered service. An improved understanding of the spatiotemporal pattern of ecosystem services and the underlying human modification influence is vital for realizing the sustainability and multifunctionality of agricultural watershed.

T. Plieninger, M. Torralba, T. Hartel et al.

Lucas Lannutti, Fernanda Noemi Gonzales, Maria José Dus Santos et al.

The honeybee <i>Apis mellifera</i> is highly appreciated worldwide because of its products, but also as it is a pollinator of crops and wild plants. The beehive is vulnerable to infections due to arthropods, fungi, protozoa, bacteria and/or viruses that manage to by-pass the individual and social immune mechanisms of bees. Due to the close proximity of bees in the beehive and their foraging habits, infections easily spread within and between beehives. Moreover, international trade of bees has caused the global spread of infections, several of which result in significant losses for apiculture. Only in a few cases can infections be diagnosed with the naked eye, by direct observation of the pathogen in the case of some arthropods, or by pathogen-associated distinctive traits. Development of molecular methods based on the amplification and analysis of one or more genes or genomic segments has brought significant progress to the study of bee pathogens, allowing for: (i) the precise and sensitive identification of the infectious agent; (ii) the analysis of co-infections; (iii) the description of novel species; (iv) associations between geno- and pheno-types and (v) population structure studies. Sequencing of bee pathogen genomes has allowed for the identification of new molecular targets and the development of specific genotypification strategies.

Bence Csaba Farkas, Valérian Chambon, Pierre O. Jacquet

Abstract An association between early life adversity and a range of coordinated behavioural responses that favour reproduction at the cost of a degraded health is often reported in humans. Recent theoretical works have proposed that perceived control—i.e., people’s belief that they are in control of external events that affect their lives—and time orientation—i.e., their tendency to live on a day-to-day basis or to plan for the future—are two closely related psychological traits mediating the associations between early life adversity, reproductive behaviours and health status. However, the empirical validity of this hypothesis remains to be demonstrated. In the present study, we examine the role of perceived control and time orientation in mediating the effects of early life adversity on a trade-off between reproductive traits (age at 1st childbirth, number of children) and health status by applying a cross-validated structural equation model frame on two large public survey datasets, the European Values Study (EVS, final N = 43,084) and the European Social Survey (ESS, final N = 31,065). Our results show that early life adversity, perceived control and time orientation are all associated with a trade-off favouring reproduction over health. However, perceived control and time orientation mediate only a small portion of the effect of early life adversity on the reproduction-health trade-off.

P. S. Prokopiev

The article discusses the possibilities of developing trade cooperation between the Eurasian Economic Union and the Cooperation Council for the Arab States of the Gulf. The purpose of the work is to identify and analyse specific sectors of the economy that may offer potential interest in the event of the creation of a free trade zone between integration associations. As a result of the study, potential opportunities for trade and economic cooperation in the agro-industrial complex were identified. The methods of analysis and comparison of data from information and analytical materials on the advantages and trends of foreign trade relations of the EAEU and GCC countries were used. The state of the matter at the political level is indicated, as well as the main barriers and potential risks to the growth of trade. The relevance of the work lies in the need to diversify foreign trade partners and ensure the sustainability of economic growth for the integration associations under consideration in the conditions of macroeconomic turbulence, global disruption of supply chains and the general degree of high tension in international economic relations.