Hasil untuk "Regional economics. Space in economics"

Joel M Thomas, Abhijit Chakraborty

This study investigates the economic complexity of Indian states by constructing a state-industry bipartite network using firm-level data on registered companies and their paid-up capital. We compute the Economic Complexity Index and apply the fitness-complexity algorithm to quantify the diversity and sophistication of productive capabilities across the Indian states and two union territories. The results reveal substantial heterogeneity in regional capability structures, with states such as Maharashtra, Karnataka, and Delhi exhibiting consistently high complexity, while others remain concentrated in ubiquitous, low-value industries. The analysis also shows a strong positive relationship between complexity metrics and per-capita Gross State Domestic Product, underscoring the role of capability accumulation in shaping economic performance. Additionally, the number of active firms in India demonstrates a persistent exponential growth at an annual rate of 11.2%, reflecting ongoing formalization and industrial expansion. The ordered binary matrix displays the characteristic triangular structure observed in complexity studies, validating the applicability of complexity frameworks at the sub-national level. This work highlights the usefulness of firm-based data for assessing regional productive structures and emphasizes the importance of capability-oriented strategies for fostering balanced and sustainable development across Indian states. By demonstrating the usefulness of firm registry data in data constrained environments, this study advances the empirical application of economic complexity methods and provides a quantitative foundation for capability-oriented industrial and regional policy in India.

Aleksandar Keseljevic, Stefan Nikolic, Rok Spruk

We investigate the long-term impact of civil war on subnational economic growth across 78 regions in five former Yugoslav republics from 1950 to 2015. Leveraging the outbreak of ethnic tensions and the onset of conflict, we construct counterfactual growth trajectories using a robust region-level donor pool from 28 conflict-free countries. Applying a hybrid synthetic control and difference-in-differences approach, we find that the war in former Yugoslavia inflicted unprecedented regional per capita GDP losses estimated at 38 percent, with substantial regional heterogeneity. The most war-affected regions suffered prolonged and permanent economic declines, while capital cities experienced more transitory effects. Our results are robust to extensive variety of specification tests, placebo analyses, and falsification exercises. Notably, ethnic tensions between Serbs and Croats explain up to 40 percent of the observed variation in economic losses, underscoring the deep and lasting influence of ethnic divisions on economic impacts of the armed conflicts.

César A. Hidalgo, Viktor Stojkoski

We provide a mechanistic foundation for economic complexity methods. In our model, an economy's ability to produce an activity depends on the joint presence of required factors. We analytically derive the Economic Complexity Index for this model and show that it is a monotonic function of the probability an economy holds many factors, validating it as an agnostic measure of productive capabilities. We also show that this model explains differences in the shape of networks of related activities, such as the product space or research space. These findings solve long standing puzzles in the literature on economic complexity.

Viani Naufalia

The objective of this research is to find out how the determinants of market conduct monitoring contribute to fostering customer trust and security, supported by the mediating variable customer satisfaction index. The researcher used quantitative research methods from customers of financial service products in DKI Jakarta, then data analysis techniques used SMART PLS 4.0 application and CSI score calculations. The results of this research show that market conduct monitoring has a significant positive determination in increasing customer confidence by 50.2% and customer sense of security by 25.2%, and can be mediated by a customer satisfaction index of 31.4%.

Lorenz Gschwent, Björn Hammarfelt, Martin Karlsson et al.

This paper explores the evolving role of health economics within economic research and publishing over the past 30 years. Historically largely a niche field, health economics has become increasingly prominent, with the share of health economics papers in top journals growing significantly. We aim to identify the factors behind this rise, examining how health economics contributes to the broader economic knowledge base and the roles distinct subfields play. Using a combination of bibliometric methods and natural language processing, we classify abstracts to define health economics. Our findings suggest that the mainstreaming of health economics is driven by innovative, high-quality research, with notable cyclicality in quality ratings that highlights the emergence and impact of distinct subfields within the discipline.

Germán Héctor González , Elena V. Elena V. Sapir , Alexander D. Vasilchenko

Экономические изменения вследствие глобального финансового кризиса 2009 г., пандемии COVID-19, сбоев в цепочках поставок и других потрясений привели к радикальной трансформации производственного ландшафта. Возник вопрос относительно сравнительных преимуществ парадигм глобальных производственных сетей (ГПС) и глобальных цепочек создания стоимости (ГЦСС) в анализе международного производства. В связи с этим была проверена гипотеза, предполагающая, что концепция ГПС позволяет лучше идентифицировать сдвиги, возникающие в международных производственных структурах, при этом выявляются региональные модели сотрудничества. В первом разделе рассмотрены основные методологические ограничения концепции ГЦСС, а также изложены причины применения сетевого подхода к анализу международного производства. Для подтверждения теоретических предположений во втором разделе была исследована сфера автомобилестроения в Европейском союзе. При сравнении количественных инструментов ГПС и ГЦСС был достигнут возможный компромисс, заключающийся в расчете сетевых показателей (транзитивность, центральность и т. д.) с использованием межстрановых таблиц «затраты — выпуск». В результате исследования поставленная гипотеза была подтверждена. В частности, показатель центральности продемонстрировал положительный эффект от вступления в ЕС для Чехии и Словакии, тогда как ни один из индикаторов ГЦСС не показал подобных сдвигов. В то же время индикаторы ГЦСС отметили влияние кризиса 2008 г., тогда как сетевые показатели свидетельствуют об отсутствии структурных изменений в производственной системе в исследуемый период. Полученные данные подтверждают теоретическое сопоставление подходов ГПС и ГЦСС. Методологическое единство двух наборов показателей позволило шире взглянуть на европейскую региональную интеграцию ядра и периферии и динамику сетей автомобилестроения. Результаты исследования могут быть использованы для переосмысления процессов региональной интеграции как в Европе, так и в Латинской Америке и Евразии.

رضا عیوض لو, داوود رزاقی

ارزشگذاری داراییها اعم از اوراق بهادار و داراییهای واقعی یکی از ارکان موثر بر تصمیمات سرمایه گذاری است، ارزشگذاری منصفانه منجر به تخصیص بهینه منابع سرمایه ای می شود و تخصیص بهینه سرمایه در اقتصاد نقش بی بدیلی را در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی ایفا می کند. در حال حاضر فقدان چارچوب مدون و مشخصی که بتواند برآورد دقیقی از ارزش تبیین نماید اهمیت دو چندان یافته است. بنابراین ارائه چارچوبی که بتواند فارغ از قضاوتهای شخصی و سلایق مختلف به صورت علمی و مستدل جهت ارائه الگوی مناسب به منظور ارزشگذاری شرکتها مورد استفاده قرار گیرد، اهمیت یافته است. در این پژوهش ابتدا با استفاده از مصاحبه با خبرگان به انتخاب الگوی مناسب ارزشگذاری سهام در 14 گونه شرکت مختلف خواهیم پرداخت بدین صورت که ابتدا با استفاده از فرآیند تحلیل شبکه ای و براساس نظر خبرگان وزن معیارها محاسبه شده و درنهایت الگویی جامع برای ارزشگذاری اقسام گوناگون شرکتها پیشنهاد شده است. در انتها هم آسیب شناسی جامعی از محیط ارزشگذاری ارائه شده است.معیارهای به کارگرفته شده در این پژوهش در 4 دسته رویکرد سودآوری گذشته (شامل میانگینEBIT، سود به قیمت گذشته)، رویکرد مبتنی بر دارایی(شامل ارزش اسمی، ارزش دفتری، ارزش جایگزینی، ارزش خالص دارایی ها و ارزش تصفیه)، رویکرد تنزیل جریانهای نقدی(شامل fcff،fcfe،apv،eva و ddm) و رویکرد بازار(p/s،p/nav، p/e به جزگذشته، ev/ebit،p/c،ev/s،p/b،p/cf و p/dps) قرار گرفتند. این پژوهش از نظر هدف از نوع کاربردی است و از نظر ماهیت و روش جمع اوری داده ها، از نوع توصیفی و از شاخه مطالعه موردی می باشد.

Theodoros Chatzivasileiadis, Ignasi Cortes Arbues, Jochen Hinkel et al.

This study investigates the long-term economic impact of sea-level rise (SLR) on coastal regions in Europe, focusing on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Using a novel dataset covering regional SLR and economic growth from 1900 to 2020, we quantify the relationships between SLR and regional GDP per capita across 79 coastal EU & UK regions. Our results reveal that the current SLR has already negatively influenced GDP of coastal regions, leading to a cumulative 4.7% loss at 39 cm of SLR. Over the 120 year period studied, the actualised impact of SLR on the annual growth rate is between -0.02% and 0.04%. Extrapolating these findings to future climate and socio-economic scenarios, we show that in the absence of additional adaptation measures, GDP losses by 2100 could range between -6.3% and -20.8% under the most extreme SLR scenario (SSP5-RCP8.5 High-end Ice, or -4.0% to -14.1% in SSP5-RCP8.5 High Ice). This statistical analysis utilising a century-long dataset, provides an empirical foundation for designing region-specific climate adaptation strategies to mitigate economic damages caused by SLR. Our evidence supports the argument for strategically relocating assets and establishing coastal setback zones when it is economically preferable and socially agreeable, given that protection investments have an economic impact.

Peng Liu

As a part of human economic activities, cultural and creative production effectively brings sustainable development results to local economic development. At the same time, the creative transformation and innovative development of excellent traditional culture require the support of cultural and creative industries, and the re-creation of urban historical and cultural heritage creation is an effective way for creative cities to spread regional history and culture. By analyzing the renewal of the old industrial site of Minshan Factory in Tianshui, Gansu and the ancient Xiguan. the reproduction and utilization of the city's historical relics lead to the conclusion that the creation of urban cultural space and the transformation of ancient cities are a complex dynamic process, exploring the spiritual and cultural connotation of the ancient city, focusing on the creation of cultural space and creative production are effective ways to establish an urban cultural industry brand effective path.

Mykola Demin, V. Yatsenko, Polina Berova

This research paper examines the peculiarities of urban and regional planning activities in modern conditions. The importance of studying the preliminary stages of project research and educational activities that form a sustainable basis for urban planning and regional planning is considered: the field of economics, sociology, geography, ecology and engineering. It is determined how the instability of their development affects the sustainable development of the human-environmental settlement system as a whole. The existing forms of settlement, such as settlement, suburban, group-territorial community, and their place in the general system of settlement - region, country - are considered. As a strategy of modern development, the paper considers the process of sociologization of the space in which society lives. The current state of public interests in the space in which people live, work, and rest is considered. The main legislative and regulatory institutions of the advanced European countries that have managed to put urban planning and regional activities as one of the main prospects for development are presented. The importance of creating the Urban Planning Code of Ukraine as a sustainable law is beyond doubt. The author proposes a model of planning organization of Ukraine in the structure of the European space as a model of integration. The main challenges of today's society to urban planning activities are formed: competitiveness, environmental friendliness, mobility, sociologization, sustainable urbanization. At the heart of the challenges posed by today's urban planning activities should always be a person and the space in which he or she organizes his or her existence.

Jianhua Cao

The main contributions of the research include the following aspects: the information index constructed by searching information on Baidu’s web pages through crawler algorithm is adopted for the first time to improve the gravity model, which is then incorporated into the same framework with urban flow model and geo-economics relationship model; a new traffic accessibility model considering both passenger and freight transport is established; a comprehensive measurement index system covering seven aspects of space, industry, transportation, market and so on is constructed to quantitatively measure the development level of urban integration in Nanjing, Zhenjiang and Yangzhou from 2004 to 2016. The results show that the development trend of urban integration in the three cities is obvious and periodic during the research period. However, serious problem of industrial convergence still exists between Yangzhou and Zhenjiang and the relationship between them is a competitive geo-economics relationship. In addition, it is necessary to further integrate the factor market and enhance the sharing of infrastructure and the equalization of public services in Nanjing, Zhenjiang and Yangzhou.

Jaime Ortega-Reyna

No contiene resumen.

Tatyana M. Maleva , Marina A. Kartseva , Polina O. Kuznetsova

Неравенство доходов, обусловленное неравенством возможностей, может приводить к замедлению экономического развития и социальной нестабильности. В работе проводится анализ неравенства возможностей в трех регионах России (Москва, Ставропольский край, Челябинская область). Для каждого региона получены оценки вклада неравенства возможностей в неравенство доходов (объективные оценки), а также проанализировано субъективное восприятие неравенства возможностей населением (субъективные оценки). Проведено сопоставление объективных показателей неравенства возможностей на уровне регионов и на национальном уровне. Важным направлением работы является анализ соответствия субъективного восприятия неравенства возможностей населением региона его объективным оценкам. Эмпирической базой исследования являются данные специализированного социологического обследования населения, проведенного РАНХиГС в 2019 г. В работе используются методы, обеспечивающие сопоставимость наших оценок с результатами, полученными в работах российских и зарубежных ученых. На региональном уровне вклад неравенства возможностей в трудовые доходы составляет 9–12 %, а в среднедушевые — 7–13 % , что заметно ниже общенациональных оценок, полученных в более ранних исследованиях. Мы объясняем это, в частности, наличием в России существенного межрегионального неравенства. Интегральный индекс субъективного восприятия неравенства возможностей, построенный на базе информации о восприятии населением различных факторов достижения успеха, показывает, что 14–20 % населения в регионах оценивают проблему неравенства возможностей как важную или очень важную, а 6–11 % — как очень важную. С помощью регрессионного анализа факторов субъективного неравенства возможностей в работе показано, что высокий уровень образования и самооценки собственного материального положения снижает остроту восприятия неравенства возможностей. Значительных региональных различий выявлено не было — восприятие неравенства в большей степени определяется не местом проживания, а индивидуальными характеристиками респондентов. Объективные и субъективные оценки регионального неравенства возможностей заметно различаются, что согласуется с выводами международных исследований. Например, в Ставропольском крае восприятие неравенства возможностей выше, чем в других регионах, а объективная оценка вклада неравенства возможностей, наоборот, ниже. 

Arezoo Shafaati, Reza Valizade, Akbar Rahimi et al.

Extent AbstractIntroductionNew urbanization developments and the emergence of problems in the world have made the central cities of metropolitan areas more vulnerable to the adverse effects of urban development compared to other urban areas. Meanwhile, technological advances have accelerated the population change and increased urban populations. This volume of rapid urbanization has had a significant impact on ancient and historical textures. The ancient and historic cores of cities with a large population of mostly immigrants in recent years have been continually deformed and their textures have been eroded. Therefore, urban planners around the world are working to integrate models of urban development so as to meet the demands and expectations of today's world by integrating all aspects of urbanization.One of the new concepts to address the current challenges of cities in the field of urban planning is smart city development. The smart city is at the heart of the evolution of the 3rd millennium and means opening up of new concepts in urban planning, which combines real-world and virtual world capabilities to solve urban problems. One of the most important projects for the development of worn-out textures, on which planners and city officials have now focused, is the idea of infill development. This theory is one of the categories of urban smart growth and if it is applied correctly, the development of old and worn-out urban areas can be strengthened.Tabriz is one of the oldest residential centers of Iran and an important city in different natural, political, demographic, and other aspects. The metropolis needs several goals to refurbish and modernize the worn-out areas in the form of smart and infill developments so as to maintain its core pillars. One of these goals is providing the basis for optimal urban development and analyzing the infill development in the context of urban development. Prioritizing the indicators, providing sub-themes of the research subject, and identifying the key variables of interstate development policies were the goals of this research. MethodologyA smart city has 6 features: smart shifting, smart economy, smart environment, smart community, smart life, and smart government. In the present study, the subsets of each of these 6 key factors, along with the infill development factors, were studied by measuring their interactions in a matrix. In this regard, the current study intended to identify the priority areas for future planning by examining different aspects of urban smart development and infill development and propose optimal strategies for effectively implementing such developments. The structural equation modeling was utilized to investigate the research conceptual model in detail. For this purpose, the opinions of 50 experts were gathered.To estimate the impacts of smart growth and interdependent development, the researchers created a 53-by-53 matrix by taking into account 34 urban smart development subdivisions and 19 interdisciplinary development subsystems with regard to indigenous and territorial conditions within the system.The 50 experts were provided with the matrix in order to identify the impact of each subsystem in the system. DiscussionThe researchers prepared a questionnaire to determine the weights of the criteria, besides conducting a survey on the opinions of the 50 experts in Tabriz University and Municipality.A total of 53 criteria were identified in a table for the two main factors of smart development and interstate development. Then, by placing these factors in a 53-by-53 matrix, their effects on each other were determined after weighting them.After determining the degree of influence and effectiveness of each of the smart development and infill development factors in the worn-out areas of Tabriz City, the relationship between these factors were investigated using Micmac software. With respect to the bi-directional variables, there was only one factor -- land use compatibility -- related to infill development and the rest of the components were among the factors that affected smart development, indicating the importance of having such development in urban growth and development. The future of the city of Tabriz in different aspects, as well as the development of its worn-out urban textures in particular, could be tied to this kind of development. ConclusionThe current research was undertaken as the first step in studying the impacts of macroeconomic policies on sustainable development and infill development as two interrelated issues. Hence, new horizons were created for the smart development of the worn-out areas of Tabriz. The results showed the prominence of the 3 critical factors of technological infrastructure, creativity, and innovation and ultimately, social and corporate cohesion in the infill development of historic and worn-out areas.A look at the results clearly revealed the impact of urban smart development on infill development that inevitably need to be further explored in planning the developments of the burnt urban areas so as to achieve a comprehensive development. Keywords: urban smart development, infill development, regeneration, worn-out tissue, Tabriz City References- Alvarez, F. (2009). The future internet. Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York.- Aly, S. S., & Attwa, Y. A. (2013). Infill development as an approach for promoting compactness of urban form. WIT Transactions on Ecology and The Environment, WIT Press.- American Planning Association (APA) (2006). Planning and urban design standards. New York: John Wiley and Sons, Inc.- Basova, S., & Stefancova, L. (2017). Creative and smart public spaces. International Journal of Liberal Arts and Social Science, 5(1), 17-33.- Caragliu, A., Bo, C. D., & Nijkamp, P. (2009). Smart cities in Europe. Third Central European Conference in Regional Science. CERS.- Chiroma, M. A., Isa, A. H., Gana, B. A., & Bogoro, A. G. (2017). A review of infill development strategies in Nigeria. Journal of Applied Sciences in Environmental Sanitation, 3(8), 46-59.- Farris, J. T. (2001). The barriers to using urban infill development to achieve smart growth. Journal of Housing Policy Debate, 12(1), 1-30.- Harrison, C., & Donnelly, I. A. (2012). A theory of smart cities. Retried from IBM Cor.- Kienitz, R. (2001). Models and guidelines for infill development. Maryland Department of Planning, Managing Maryland’s Growth.- Korczak, J., & Kijewska, K. (2019). Smart logistics in the development of smart cities. Transportation Research Procedia, 39, 201-211.- Kulpa, E., & Zamorano, L.(2015). 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In: 18th International Sustainable Innovation Conference, Surrey, UK.- Mahesa, R., Yudoko, G., & Anggoro, Y. (2019). Dataset on the sustainable smart city development in Indonesia. Data in Brief, 25, 104098.- McConnell, V., & Wiley, K. (2010). Infill development: Perspectives and evidence from economics and planning. Discussion paper, JEL Classification Numbers: R11, R12, R14.- Meijer, A. (2013). Governing the smart city: Scaling-up the search for socio-techno synergy. Utrecht School of Governance. Utrecht University.- Merlin, L. A. (2018). The influence of infill development on travel behavior. Journal of Research in Transportation Economies, 67, 54-67.- Moudon, A. V. (1997). Urban morphology as an emerging interdisciplinary field. Journal of Urban Morphology, 1(1), 3-10.- Ooi, J. T., & Le, T. T. (2013). The spillover effects of infill developments on local housing prices. Journal of Regional Science and Urban Economics, 43(6), 850-861.- Smart Growth Network (SGN) (2002). About smart growth. Retrieved from: www.smartgrowth.org/about.- TGM Program Staff (2001). Commercial and mixed-use development. Oregon Transportation and Growth Management.- Titu, M., Viinikka, A., Kopperoninen, L., & Geneletti, D. (2018). Balancing urban green space and residential infill development: A spatial multi-criteria approach based on practitioner engagement. Journal of Environmental Assessment Policy and Management, 20(03), 1840004.- US Environmental Protection Agency. (2014). Attracting infill development in distressed communities: 30Strategies. Office of Sustainable Communities, Smart Growth Program. Retrieved from: www.epa.gov/smartgrowth.

Victor Olkhov

Accuracy of economic theories and efficiency of economic policy strictly depend on the choice of the economic variables and processes mostly liable for description of economic reality. That states the general problem of assessment of any possible economic variables and processes chargeable for economic evolution. We show that economic variables and processes described by current economic theories constitute only a negligible fraction of factors responsible for economic dynamics. We consider numerous unnoted economic variables and overlooked economic processes those determine the states and predictions of the real economics. We regard collective economic variables, collective transactions and expectations, mean risks of economic variables and transactions, collective velocities and flows of economic variables, transactions and expectations as overlooked factors of economic evolution. We introduce market-based probability of the asset price and consider unnoticed influence of market stochasticity on randomness of macroeconomic variables. We introduce economic domain composed by continuous numeric risk grades and outline that the bounds of the economic domain result in unnoticed inherent cyclical motion of collective variables, transactions and expectations those are responsible for observed business cycles. Our treatment of unnoticed and overlooked factors of theoretical economics and policy decisions preserves a wide field of studies for many decades for academic researchers, economic authorities and high-level politicians.

José M. Gaspar, Minoru Osawa

We develop a two-region economic geography model with vertical innovations that improve the quality of manufactured varieties produced in each region. The chance of innovation depends on the \emph{related variety}, i.e. the importance of interaction between researchers within the same region rather than across different regions. As economic integration increases from a low level, a higher related variety is associated with more agglomerated spatial configurations. However, if the interaction with foreign scientists is relatively more important for innovation, economic activities may (completely) re-disperse after an initial phase of agglomeration due to the increase in the relative importance of a higher chance of innovation in the less industrialized region. This non-monotonic relationship between economic integration and spatial imbalances may exhibit very diverse qualitative properties, not yet described in the literature.

Timo B. Daehler, J. Aizenman, Y. Jinjarak

Can bad news about COVID-19 induce negative expectations on sovereign credit risks? We investigate the factors driving credit default swap (CDS) spreads of emerging market sovereigns around the outbreak of COVID-19. Using 2014–2019 data, we estimate a two-factor model of global and regional risks and then extrapolate the model-implied spreads for the period July 2019–June 2020. Intriguingly, the model initially predicts the realized spreads well but loses predictive accuracy during the COVID-19 pandemic. Fiscal space and oil-revenue dependence primarily drive the differences between the realized and predicted sovereign spreads. Our augmented-factor model indicates that the cumulative COVID-19 mortality rate growth is positively associated with the CDS spreads. The evidence suggests that the epidemiological deterioration can lower confidence in the sovereign credit markets due to the prospects of prolonged lockdowns and a slower GDP growth recovery. Our results also hold for a single regression of daily spread changes during 2014–2020.

Zoia S. Podoba, Victor A. Gorshkov, Anastasiya A. Ozerova

By empirically examining the commodity structure of Japan's exports in 2000–2020, the authors have identified product groups with increased, diminished, newly emerged, and lost revealed comparative advantages (RCA). In 2020, Japan had RCA in 24 product groups with relatively high levels of product complexity and thus managed to maintain its highly diversified trade portfolio. However, increasing global competition poses potential risks to Japan's exports. Eight product groups with diminished and two product groups with lost RCA are signs of Japan's unsuccessful adaptation to the structural changes on the world markets. The newly emerged RCA, predominantly in the chemicals and allied industries, still mostly have lower index values in comparison to major trade partners, however, their contribution to Japan's exports is likely to expand. To enhance its comparative advantages, Japan should foster innovation which may positively affect national competitiveness but this depends on how the country will adapt to domestic and global challenges.

Mohammed Jibrin Katun, Sulyman Aremu Olanrewaju, Aliyu Abdullahi Alhaji

Urban densification has attracted much attention in recent times, particularly in addressing certain urban problems such as urban sprawl and promoting compact development, though problems of unplanned densification are yet to be addressed in the literature. This paper examines space and time dynamics of urban densification, where patterns and changes in the residential densification of Bida urban area in Nigeria are assessed. The study relied on point features representing buildings for the years 2008, 2013, and 2018 digitized using ArcGIS 10.6. The data were analysed using Point Density spatial method to develop the spatiotemporal models which were further reclassified into three categories: low, medium, and high densities, respectively. The paper has found out that residential densities increase along the urban-rural gradient with clear evidence for unplanned urban densification as a result of the organic growth. Therefore, there is the need for planned densification in urban development which can curb the increasing residential density that reduces green and open spaces.

Michael Roos, Matthias Reccius

There is growing awareness within the economics profession of the important role narratives play in the economy. Even though empirical approaches that try to quantify economic narratives are getting increasingly popular, there is no theory or even a universally accepted definition of economic narratives underlying this research. First, we review and categorize the economic literature concerned with narratives and work out the different paradigms that are at play. Only a subset of the literature considers narratives to be active drivers of economic activity. In order to solidify the foundation of narrative economics, we propose a definition of collective economic narratives, isolating five important characteristics. We argue that, for a narrative to be economically relevant, it must be a sense-making story that emerges in a social context and suggests action to a social group. We also systematize how a collective economic narrative differs from a topic and from other kinds of narratives that are likely to have less impact on the economy. With regard to the popular use of topic modeling as an empirical strategy, we suggest that the complementary use of other canonical methods from the natural language processing toolkit and the development of new methods is inevitable to go beyond identifying topics and be able to move towards true empirical narrative economics.