Fatemeh Mehrpourbernety, Ramin Fazloula, Alireza Emadi
et al.
Extended Abstract
Background: Floods are caused by several reasons, including rainfall intensity, vegetation destruction, and encroachment of rivers. The high power of floods damages buildings, bridges, and existing structures, and also reduces the capacity of the river bed. Moreover, the excessive volume of water leads to human and financial losses and the destruction of animal habitats. Structural measures (such as dam construction) and non-structural measures (such as increased vegetation coverage, forecasting, and flood warning systems) are carried out to deal with a flood and its damage. Flood forecasting is the process of estimating the time and place of flood occurrence and the volume of water and, as an efficient and low-cost tool for flood management and damage reduction, has received a lot of attention in recent years. Rainfall-runoff modeling is one of the measures of flood management. Simulation is done using hydrological models to understand the relationship between rainfall and runoff parameters, as well as to determine the peak discharge value and the time to reach the peak discharge. One of the hydrological software packages in this field is the HEC-HMS software. By considering three components of the basin, meteorological, and control specification models, the value of losses, runoff, base flow, and routing are calculated using existing methods, and finally, optimization is performed to reduce the difference between observed and simulated hydrographs. Precipitation is one of the most important input parameters in simulating floods. Therefore, the correct estimation of its amount is considered necessary and important. Considering the number of rain gauge stations and the lack of sufficient stations in Iran, especially in mountainous areas, the use of numerical weather prediction model information and satellite rainfall data plays an important role in flood forecasting. Numerical weather prediction models predict weather conditions using mathematical models. Forecasts are divided into three short-range, medium-range, and long-range categories, and also, into regional and global models. One of these models is the numerical weather prediction model, called GFS, which predicts and provides data such as temperature, wind, and precipitation. Heavy rainfall, destruction of forests, sand and gravel harvesting, and construction in floodplains are among the causes of floods in Mazandaran Province, especially the Tajan River, in recent years. The main goal of this research was to estimate the value of peak discharge by simulating flood events and evaluating the results using the precipitation information of the GFS model in the Tajan watershed located in Sari City, Mazandaran Province.
Methods: In this research, data were collected from the hydrometric stations of the Tajan watershed, including the hourly measurements of recorded floods, as well as the information required by the evaporation and rain gauge stations in this area, including precipitation obtained by the Mazandaran Regional Water Company for the 10-year period of 2011-2021. Furthermore, precipitation data were received online (from the following webpage: https://openweathermap.org) through the output of the GFS numerical weather prediction model in the mentioned period. The curve number of each subbasin was determined using land use and soil hydrological group layers in ArcGIS software, and the physiographic characteristics of the Tajan watershed were extracted using the HEC-GeoHMS extension. Then, four events 04 October 2011, 01 December 2011, 14 November 2016, and 01 December 2017 were simulated using the physiographic characteristics of the sub-basins, the precipitation data of the Tajan watershed, and the flood discharge obtained by the Mazandaran Regional Water Company in HEC-HMS software. The Soil Conservation Service curve number method was used to calculate losses, the SCS unit hydrograph method was used to calculate the runoff method, and the lag method was used for routing. Subsequently, sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the sensitivity of the curve number, lag time, and initial abstraction parameters. The optimal values of the parameters in the optimization process were determined using nine objective functions available in the HEC-HMS software, including Mean of Absolute Residuals, Mean of Squared Residuals, Peak-Weighted Root Mean Square Error, Peak-Weighted Variable Power, Percent Error in Peak Discharge, Root Mean Square Error, Sum of Absolute Residuals, Sum of Squared Residuals, and Time-Weighted RMSE. In the next step, validation was performed by event 01 December 2017 using the optimal values of the parameters. Finally, after HEC-HMS software optimization and verification, the aforementioned flood events were simulated using the data of the GFS numerical weather prediction model.
Results: The results showed a strong correlation between observed and calibrated hydrographs. Besides, the best objective function was peak-weighted variable power. The results of the sensitivity analysis showed that the peak discharge was more sensitive to the changes in the initial abstraction and curve number parameters. Validation was performed to verify the validity of the results obtained in the calibration process, and the results indicated no significant differences between the averages of the two groups, viz. observed and calibrated flow rates. Moreover, the simulation results using the GFS numerical weather prediction model showed no significant differences (at a 95% confidence level) between the observed and simulated hydrographs.
Conclusion: According to the results, using the precipitation data of the GFS numerical weather prediction model and the HEC-HMS rainfall-runoff software makes it possible to simulate the flood with acceptable confidence in predicting the peak discharge of floods.
River, lake, and water-supply engineering (General)
<p>The research and development department (R&D) is a necessary and vital organ for all organizations that intend to be active in domestic and foreign markets, and it is of undeniable importance for domestic and international competition as one of the most important factors for achieving the goals of organizations and industries in economic progress and access to commercial markets. Hence, in the present study, the intelligent R&D management model was evaluated with an agility approach, and to this end, the data was collected from 270 participants using a questionnaire, including managers, professors, senior experts, and experts of petrochemical companies. Then, the fitted data, obtained from the structural equation model, was analyzed with the help of partial least squares method using PLS statistical software. The results of the path coefficients showed that there is a significant relationship between the research variables and the evaluation indices of the model fit. Also, it was found that the relevant model has a good fit. Therefore, it can be stated that intelligent research and development management with an agility approach has improved processes, innovation, optimized communication, and also has financial and competitive consequences for the organization.</p>
Previous research has primarily focused on soil erosion issues in arid and semi-arid regions, with a limited understanding of soil erosion mechanisms in tropical areas. Additionally, there is a lack of a holistic perspective to determine the spatial attribution of soil erosion. The conversion of tropical rainforests into economically driven plantations, like rubber and pulpwood, has resulted in distinct soil erosion characteristics in specific regions. To enhance our knowledge of soil erosion patterns and mechanisms in tropical regions, it is necessary to examine soil erosion in the three major watersheds of Hainan Island from 1991 to 2021, which encompass significant geographical features such as tropical island water sources and tropical rainforest national parks. The study employed the China Soil Loss Equation (CSLE) model, slope trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, land-use transfer matrix, and spatial attribution analysis to examine soil erosion under different scenarios. The research results indicate that scenarios driven by the combination of natural and human factors have the greatest impact on soil erosion changes in the entire study area. Co-driven increases affected 53.56% of the area, while co-driven decreases affected 21.74%. The 31-year soil erosion showed an overall increasing trend. Human factors were identified as the primary drivers of increased soil erosion in the Nandu River basin, while a combination of climate and anthropogenic factors influenced the decrease in soil erosion. In the Changhua River basin, climate and human activities contributed to the soil erosion increase, while human activities primarily caused the decrease in soil erosion. In the Wanquan River basin, climate intensified soil erosion, whereas human activities mitigated it. This study underscores the significant combined impact of human activities and natural factors on soil erosion in tropical regions. It emphasizes the importance of considering human-induced factors when implementing soil erosion control measures in tropical regions.
The principal function of skin is to form an effective barrier between the human body and its environment. Impaired barrier function represents a precondition for the development of skin diseases such as atopic dermatitis (AD), which is the most common inflammatory skin disease characterized by skin barrier dysfunction. AD significantly affects patients’ quality of life, thus, there is a growing interest in the development of novel delivery systems that would improve therapeutic outcomes. Herein, eight novel lyotropic liquid crystals (LCCs) were investigated for the first time in a double-blind, interventional, before-after, single-group trial with healthy adult subjects and a twice-daily application regimen. LCCs consisted of constituents with skin regenerative properties and exhibited lamellar micro-structure, especially suitable for dermal application. The short- and long-term effects of LCCs on TEWL, SC hydration, erythema index, melanin index, and tolerability were determined and compared with baseline. LCCs with the highest oil content and lecithin/Tween 80 mixture stood out by providing a remarkable 2-fold reduction in TEWL values and showing the most distinctive decrease in skin erythema levels in both the short- and long-term exposure. Therefore, they exhibit great potential for clinical use as novel delivery systems for AD treatment, capable of repairing skin barrier function.
Ehsan Inam Ullah, Shakil Ahmad, Muhammad Fahim Khokhar
et al.
Run off river schemes are getting widespread importance as they are considered environmentally safe. However, number of studies and the consequent information regarding impacts of run off river schemes is very limited worldwide. Present study attempted to analyze impacts of Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Plant, which is a run off river scheme situated in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province of Pakistan. This study attempted to analyze impacts of this run off river scheme on hydrological and ecological conditions of downstream areas. Data on river discharge, groundwater levels, agriculture area, vegetation and bare soil was utilized for this study. All data sets between the year 1990 till 2020 were analyzed. Hydrological impacts were analyzed through secondary data analysis, whereas ecological impacts were studied through remote sensing technique. Statistical methods were applied to further draw conclusions between hydrological and ecological interrelationships. Results showed that after functioning of Ghazi Barotha, there was 47% and 91% reduction of river discharge, in summer and winter seasons respectively. Groundwater level dropped by 50%. Agriculture area reduced by 1.69% and 9.11% during summer and winter respectively, whereas land under bare soil increased. River water diversion was considered to be responsible for groundwater reduction, as strong correlation was found between both. Agriculture land recovery, in post Ghazi Barotha period, was premised at intense groundwater mining, as groundwater level and agriculture area were significantly related (p < 0.05). Governments’ groundwater development schemes, and a shift into motorized groundwater mining were major factors behind further groundwater exploitation in study area. This study came to the conclusion that Ghazi Barotha Hydropower Plant had impacted flow regime of Indus River, as well as groundwater levels and land use of downstream area along the river. These effects were triggered by inappropriate compensatory measures and uncontrolled water resource exploitation.
Flame spray pyrolysis (FSP) is a technique for the synthesis of metal oxide nanoparticles by combusting precursor solutions in a spray flame. The combustion of certain precursor solutions is known to lead to severe droplet disruptions (μ-explosions) in the spray flame that are linked to the synthesis of homogeneous and phase-pure nanoparticles. In this work, a broad spectrum of suitable subsonic operating conditions for the synthesis of iron oxide nanoparticles by FSP is investigated to understand the influence of the jet Reynolds number and turbulence on the onset of μ-explosions and droplet dynamics in spray flames. In order to enable a coherent comparison between differently operated spray flames using an iron(III) nitrate nonahydrate solution, the gas-to-liquid mass ratio and, hence, the oxygen/fuel ratio have been kept constant in order to identify the influence of flow conditions on the droplet dynamics. From the analysis of the droplet sizes in the spray and in the spray flame, it is found that in all combusting sprays, the droplet sizes convert from unimodal (after atomization) to bimodal droplet size distribution (DSD) due to the presence of μ-explosions. The occurrence and evolution of the bimodal DSD reveal that high jet Reynolds numbers result in narrower DSD and in a sharper separation of both DSD probability peaks (modal values). A straightforward 1-step kinematic model is presented to describe the conversion of unimodal to bimodal DSD considering the evaporation of droplets as well as the disruption of droplets to mimic the effect of μ-explosions. The temporal evolution of droplets in FSP is investigated by spatially resolved velocity data that reveal the formation of a temporal self-similarity. The resulting iron oxide nanoparticle size decreases with increasing jet Reynolds number. The turbulent mixing and residence times in the flame, primarily set by the jet Reynolds number, are identified as key design parameters for FSP.
Fuel, Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade
U ovom radu je obrađena jedna relativno nova metoda za procenu mesta nastanka kvara na vodu, koja se bazira na primeni neuralnih mreža. Kako bi se izvršila provera efikasnosti ove metode, u programskom paketu MATLAB/Simulink je formiran model jednostavnog EES-a, koji čine dve visokonaponske mreže (ekvivalentirane Tevenenovim generatorom) povezane 100 km dugačkim dalekovodom. Pomoću ovog programskog paketa su simulirani različiti tipovi kvarova na različitim pozicijama na vodu. Vrednosti faznih struja i međufaznih napona koje generišu ovi kvarovi predstavljaju podatke koji se dovode na ulaz neuralne mreže. Na osnovu ovih ulaznih veličina i izlazne vrednosti koja je jednaka stvarnom rastojanju mesta kvara od početka voda (odnosno pozicije lokatora kvara), moguće je izvršiti obučavanje neuralne mreže. Obučavanje neuralne mreže je izvršeno pomoću softverskog alata nntool (eng. Neural Network Toolbox), koji je sastavni deo programskog paketa MATLAB.
Energy industries. Energy policy. Fuel trade, Economics as a science
Remote sensing data plays an important role in classifying land use/land cover (LULC) information from various sensors having different spectral, spatial and temporal resolutions. The fusion of an optical image and a synthetic aperture radar (SAR) image is significant for the study of LULC change and simulation in cloudy mountain areas. This paper proposes a novel feature-level fusion framework, in which the Landsat operational land imager (OLI) images with different cloud covers, and a fully polarized Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2) image are selected to conduct LULC classification experiments. We take the karst mountain in Chongqing as a study area, following which the features of the spectrum, texture, and space of the optical and SAR images are extracted, respectively, supplemented by the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), elevation, slope and other relevant information. Furthermore, the fused feature image is subjected to object-oriented multi-scale segmentation, subsequently, an improved support vector machine (SVM) model is used to conduct the experiment. The results showed that the proposed framework has the advantages of multi-source data feature fusion, high classification performance and can be applied in mountain areas. The overall accuracy (OA) was more than 85%, with the Kappa coefficient values of 0.845. In terms of forest, gardenland, water, and artificial surfaces, the precision of fusion image was higher compared to single data source. In addition, ALOS-2 data have a comparative advantage in the extraction of shrubland, water, and artificial surfaces. This work aims to provide a reference for selecting the suitable data and methods for LULC classification in cloudy mountain areas. When in cloudy mountain areas, the fusion features of images should be preferred, during the period of low cloudiness, the Landsat OLI data should be selected, when no optical remote sensing data are available, and the fully polarized ALOS-2 data are an appropriate substitute.
Uliana Nikonenko, Tetyana Medynska, Oleksandr Bilotskyi
et al.
Purpose – the main purpose of the study is to analyze the institutional factors that are usually considered as components of economic freedom, as well as to assess the level of economic freedom as a prerequisite for improving structural proportions and stimulating the investment process in an economy with excess raw materials sector (such as Ukraine).
Research methodology – the methodological basis is a system of complementary mathematical, general scientific and special methods, in particular system-structural comparison of retrospective, diagnostics and mathematical methods of studying possible dependence, general methods of analysis and synthesis, etc.
Findings – the main result of the study is that increasing the degree of economic freedom in Ukraine contributes to structural shifts in favour of non-resource exports.
Research limitations – our assessment methodology does not take into account the specifics of most European countries and is mainly aimed at countries of Eastern Europe so far.
Practical implications – our proposed methodology for assessing the dependence of structural changes in a country’s exports on the economic freedom index IEF can be used in the practice of public administration in countries of such countries as Ukraine and others.
Originality/Value – a proposed method for estimating the dependence of structural changes in Ukrainian exports on the IEF Index of Economic Freedom.
Nutchanart Sriwongsitanon, Thienchart Suwawong, Sansarith Thianpopirug
et al.
Study region: Annual and monthly ET values from seven global remote sensing products (ALEXI, CMRSET, ETMonitor, GLEAM V3.3b, MOD16A2, SEBS V3 and SSEBop) were validated for 172 sub-basins in Thailand. Study focus: This study describes a generalised validation procedure that uses rainfall (P), streamflow (Q) and storage change data (from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment - TWSCGRACE) and land use information. For each sub-basin, bulk ET was computed using the water balance framework and compared to estimates by ET products. Inverse water balance computations were applied to infer the storage change estimates from each product (ΔS = P – Q - ETRS), which were compared to TWSCGRACE to assess their monthly scale performances. New hydrological insights for the region under study: All products performed very well on the annual basis (mean NSE > 0.96) and satisfactorily on the monthly scale (mean NSE > 0.65). Land use classifications from the Land Development Department were used to examine the ability of four candidates (CMRSET, MOD16A2, GLEAM V3.3b and ETMonitor) to provide ET estimates with correspondence to physical land use conditions. By also considering product resolutions and data accessibility, MOD16A2 was consensually shown to be the most promising product to be used for water resources management in Thailand. In addition to local applications, the outcomes emanate the potential for utilisation on the global scale which should be further investigated.
Before we even noticed, electronic devices and the internet have invaded our lives and our universities. Far from being just an instrument, they change the way we teach, whether we want it or not. Unfortunately, instead of helping, they carry negative effects, well documented by research in psychology, psychiatry and neuroimaging over the last decade. They affect our attention, our memory, and our social skills. Without even being aware of it, we are playing the Sorcerer’s Apprentice. Since 2011, the author has banned the digital and reinvigorated traditional teaching methods: a demanding, yet hugely rewarding experience. The present paper is a vibrant plea by a scholar to fellow scholars: let us get rid of the virtual! Let us teach for real!
Investigating the behavior of religious households is among the important subjects in Islamic countries. As there are religious expenditures in consumption basket, recognizing factors affecting these expenditure is significantly important. By using income-expenditure data, and probit method, this paper is analyzing the case of Iran, in urban and rural regions during 2014. The variables include payment to charity funds, age, literacy level, household dimensions, employment, marriage situation, and home ownership. The results show that there is a positive and significant relationship between the above variables and the religious payments. The household dimension, however, does indicate a negative impact on religious payments. The literacy in rural areas and employment in urban areas do have much more impact relatively. Finally, this research is an implicit testing of Barro’s hypothesis (negative relationship between religious behavior at one hand and prosperity and literacy on the other).
Francisco Duarte, Pascal Béguin, Valérie Pueyo
et al.
This paper presents the main results of a Franco-Brazilian Research project entitled "Work, Innovation and Development". The aim is to conceptually consider work activity within sustainable development, and to contribute methodologically towards developing strategies for designing sustainable work systems. After a brief description of the factors and the dimensions that have contributed to the creation of ideas on sustainable development, we will put forward two main approaches for understanding work activity within the context of sustainability, these being: the durability of work activity and the development of work activities for sustainable development. Both approaches are presented and examples are given. This is followed by a discussion of the design of sustainable work systems that focuses particularly on the political and technical dimensions of project management.