Hasil untuk "Public finance"

Josef Novotny, Petr Hajek

Abstract This study develops a novel hybrid trading framework that integrates support vector regression (SVR) for price forecasting with proximal policy optimization (PPO) reinforcement learning for adaptive decision-making. Focusing on precious metal exchange traded funds (ETFs)–GLD, SLV, PPLT and PALL–the model incorporates both market-based volatility (VIX) and news-based sentiment (SSW) indices alongside key financial variables. By dynamically switching between rule-based trading actions (informed by SVR) and a learning-based PPO agent, our hybrid strategy consistently outperforms traditional benchmarks, including buy-and-hold and 5-day moving average. Empirical results show higher cumulative returns, improved Sharpe ratios and a higher proportion of profitable trades across all four ETFs. In addition, the inclusion of investor sentiment data significantly improves forecasting accuracy, particularly for gold, silver and platinum, and strengthens the stability of both short- and long-term predictions. These findings underscore the critical role of investor sentiment in predictive modeling and highlight the effectiveness of reinforcement learning for adaptive trading in volatile commodity markets. The proposed SVR-PPO approach provides a transparent, data-driven solution for investors and portfolio managers seeking to optimize returns, manage risk and respond quickly to changing market conditions.

Göktürk Kalkan

Non-performing loans (NPLs) are widely recognised as key indicators of the health of banks and, by extension, the broader economy. This study examines the impact of NPLs on the profitability of banks in Türkiye from 2003 to 2020, using Return on Assets (ROA) as the primary profitability measure. Panel data from 15 deposit banks were analysed using a robust least squares regression (with M-estimation) to address outliers and heteroscedasticity. Key variables include the NPL ratio, ownership concentration (OC), bank size, deposit ratio, consumer price index (CPI) and gross domestic product growth rate. The analysis shows a significant negative relationship between NPLs and ROA, indicating that higher NPL levels are associated with lower ROA. OC and CPI also exhibit negative effects on ROA, whereas bank size, deposit ratio and GDP growth rate have positive impacts on profitability. These findings underscore the need for effective NPL management to maintain the financial health of banks. The results highlight the importance of internal management efficiency, macroeconomic stability and robust regulatory frameworks in improving bank profitability in Türkiye.

Li Zhang, Xianqing Tu, Xin Yong

ObjectiveThis study aims to examine the gendered effects of robotization on workers’ perceived pay fairness (PPFs) in the Chinese manufacturing industry. It specifically investigates how robotization is associated with gender disparities in PPFs and explores the mediating roles of wage dynamics and skill development in shaping these outcomes.MethodWe analyzed survey data from 28,470 manufacturing workers in Guangdong, China, using ordinary least squares regression to examine the association between robotization and perceived pay fairness. Instrumental variable techniques were used to address potential endogeneity. Mediation analyses assessed the roles of wages and skill levels.ResultsRobotization is positively associated with perceived pay fairness among workers, with a stronger effect for men than for women. This gender gap is mainly explained by greater wage gains for men. Wage growth significantly mediates the relationship between robotization and PPFs for both genders, but the effect is weaker for women. While robotization raises skill levels for both men and women, only among men do increased skills modestly reduce the positive effect of robotization on PPFs; for women, skill development shows no significant impact.DiscussionThese results highlight persistent gender disparities in the benefits of robotization, with male workers reporting greater perceived gains in pay fairness. The weaker effect for female workers is mainly due to smaller wage increases and limited impact of skill improvements. The study suggests that policies should address gender wage gaps in robotized workplaces and support women in recognizing and utilizing their skills.

هويدا النادي

يهدف هذا البحث إلى استخدام نموذج Frank Copula في تقدير سعر تأمين السيارات التكميلي والذي ينبغي أن يحقق مبادئ التسعير الأساسية وبحيث يتناسب السعر مع المزايا التي يوفرها التأمين آخذين في الاعتبار العوامل المؤثرة في درجة الخطر عند تطبيق نموذج التسعير المقترح مع تحديد الفئة التي تنتمي إليها وحدة الخطر وذلك حسب البيانات المتاحة وقد تم استخدام بيانات إحدى شركات التأمين في السوق المصرية وتم تقدير متوسط عدد الحوادث ومتوسط التعويض للحادث الواحد بتطبيق نموذج Frank copula وتم حساب السعر المقدر أخذين في الاعتبار بلد صنع السيارة ( أمريكا ، أوروبا ، الأخرى وهي كافة السيارات ماعدا السيارات الأمريكية والأوروبية الصنع ) ، وجنس مالك السيارة ( ذكر ، أنثى ) والسعة اللترية للسيارة ( أقل من 1600 ، 1600 ، أكبر من 1600) كفئات وعمر السيارة وعمر مالك السيارة كمتغيرات مستقلة ، ومتوسط عدد الحوادث ومتوسط التعويض للحادث الواحد كمتغيرات تابعة وقد تم التطبيق في هذا البحث على فئة السيارات أوروبية الصنع .وتبين من خلال عينة البحث التي تم تقسيمها وفقا لبلد الصنع :-1- السيارات الأمريكية الصنع 2610 سيارة 2- السيارات الأوروبية الصنع 5702 سيارة 3- السيارات الأخرى ماعدا السيارات الأمريكية والأوروبية الصنع 17547 سيارة وتم التطبيق علي بيانات الفئة الثانية لانه قد تم تناول الفئة الثالثة في بحث اخر وقد توصل البحث إلى تقدير السعر لجميع فئات عمر السيارة من (1 – 31) سنة ولجميع فئات عمر مالك السيارة (18-73) سنة وللذكر والانثى ولجميع فئات سعه المحرك ( أقل من 1600 – 1600 – أكبر من 1600 ) لجميع فئات عمر السيارة وعمر مالك السيارة معاً.

Riddhi Kalsi

This paper resolves the empirical puzzle in the public-private wage literature: why studies using similar data reach contradictory conclusions about wage premiums and penalties. Utilizing rich French administrative panel data (2012-2019), this study has two main contributions: first, it presents a set of new, intuitive yet previously undocumented stylized facts about wage dynamics, sectoral mobility, and gender differences across sectors. The results reveal that the modest hourly wage gaps conceal substantial disparities in lifetime earnings and employment stability. Women, in particular, gain a significant lifetime earnings advantage in the public sector, driven by higher retention, better-compensated part-time work, and more equitable annual hours compared to the private sector, where gender gaps remain larger, especially for those with higher education. In contrast, highly educated men experience a lifetime penalty in public employment due to rigid wage structures. By flexibly modeling sectoral transitions, transitions into and out of employment, and earnings heterogeneity using an Expectation-Maximization algorithm, this study shows that both premiums and penalties depend systematically on gender, education, and labor market experience. The analysis reveals that significant unobserved heterogeneity remains in wage dynamics. These findings unify prevailing narratives by providing a comprehensive, descriptive account of sectoral differences in transitions, part-time work and wages by gender.

László Hajdu, Jovan Pavlović, Miklós Krész et al.

Understanding the dynamics of passenger interactions and their epidemiological impact throughout public transportation systems is crucial for both service efficiency and public health. High passenger density and close physical proximity has been shown to accelerate the spread of infectious diseases. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many public transportation companies took measures to slow down and minimize disease spreading. One of these measures was introducing spacing and capacity constraints to public transit vehicles. Our objective is to explore the effects of demand changes and transportation measures from an epidemiological point of view, offering alternative measures to public transportation companies to keep the system alive while minimizing the epidemiological risk as much as possible.

Gui Zhang, Xiaojin Xiong, Bin Pin et al.

In real-world social and economic systems, the provisioning of public goods generally entails continuous interactions among individuals, with decisions to cooperate or defect being influenced by dynamic factors such as timing, resource availability, and the duration of engagement. However, the traditional public goods game ignores the asynchrony of the strategy adopted by players in the game. To address this problem, we propose a spatial public goods game that integrates an M/M/1 queueing system to simulate the dynamic flow of player interactions. We use a birth-death process to characterize the stochastic dynamics of this queueing system, with players arriving following a Poisson process and service times being exponentially distributed under a first-come-first-served basis with finite queue capacity. We also incorporate reputation so that players who have cooperated in the past are more likely to be chosen for future interactions. Our research shows that a high arrival rate, low service rate, and the reputation mechanism jointly facilitate the emergence of cooperative individuals in the network, which thus provides an interesting and new perspective for the provisioning of public goods.

Gamel Abdul-Nasser Salifu, Zubeiru Salifu

This paper contributes to the ongoing discourse surrounding aid administration for sustainable development in the post-COVID-19 era. African economies experienced a 1.5% contraction during this period, leading to a 35.85% increase in the number of people living in poverty. The paper addresses the crucial question of aid effectiveness in light of these challenges. Utilizing a systematic review approach, we examine existing studies and identify gaps in the literature related to aid effectiveness. Our analysis focuses on a sample of 84 highly cited peer-reviewed articles from the Web of Science (WoS) database spanning the years 2003–2023. The findings reveal a trend where international donors allocate aid to numerous African countries characterized by weak governance and leadership structures. Consequently, a sizable portion of aid funds fails to reach the intended beneficiaries due to the complex challenges associated with aid administration. In response to these challenges, we advocate the adoption of comprehensive frameworks to monitor rent-seeking behaviour, which often hampers economic growth. This approach aims to address issues of embezzlement by local elites, who disproportionately receive funds on behalf of their constituencies. This will ensure that every allocated dollar of aid reaches its designated recipients. This study is distinct in its contribution by offering insights into various frameworks for aid administration while laying the foundation for improved aid management in transitional economies by providing valuable knowledge to enhance the effectiveness of aid initiatives.

Mohammed Perves

Computing cost of equity for private corporations and performing comparable company analysis (comps) for both public and private corporations is an integral but tedious and time-consuming task, with important applications spanning the finance world, from valuations to internal planning. Performing comps traditionally often times include high ambiguity and subjectivity, leading to unreliability and inconsistency. In this paper, I will present a systematic and faster approach to compute cost of equity for private corporations and perform comps for both public and private corporations using spectral and agglomerative clustering. This leads to a reduction in the time required to perform comps by orders of magnitude and entire process being more consistent and reliable.

María Pereda

The problem of free-riding arises when individuals benefit from a shared resource, service, or public good without contributing proportionately to its provision. This conduct often leads to a collective action problem, as individuals pursue personal gains while relying on the contributions of others. In this study, we present a Bayesian inference model to elucidate the behaviour of participants in a Public Goods Game, a conceptual framework that captures the essence of the free-riding problem. Here, individuals possess information on the distribution of group donations to the public good. Our model is grounded in the premise that individuals strive to harmonise their actions with the group's donation patterns. Our model is able to replicate behavioural patterns that resemble those observed in experiments with midsized groups (100 people), but fails to replicate those for larger scales (1000 people). Our results suggest that, in these scenarios, humans prefer imitation and convergence behaviours over profit optimisation. These insights contribute to understanding how cooperation is achieved through alignment with group behaviour.

Nina Rizun, Aleksandra Revina, Noella Edelmann

The public sector faces several challenges, such as a number of external and internal demands for change, citizens' dissatisfaction and frustration with public sector organizations, that need to be addressed. An alternative to the traditional top-down development of public services is co-creation of public services. Co-creation promotes collaboration between stakeholders with the aim to create better public services and achieve public values. At the same time, data analytics has been fuelled by the availability of immense amounts of textual data. Whilst both co-creation and TA have been used in the private sector, we study existing works on the application of Text Analytics (TA) techniques on text data to support public service co-creation. We systematically review 75 of the 979 papers that focus directly or indirectly on the application of TA in the context of public service development. In our review, we analyze the TA techniques, the public service they support, public value outcomes, and the co-creation phase they are used in. Our findings indicate that the TA implementation for co-creation is still in its early stages and thus still limited. Our research framework promotes the concept and stimulates the strengthening of the role of Text Analytics techniques to support public sector organisations and their use of co-creation process. From policy-makers' and public administration managers' standpoints, our findings and the proposed research framework can be used as a guideline in developing a strategy for the designing co-created and user-centred public services.

Wen-Jie Liu, Zi-Xian Li, Wen-Bo Li et al.

Recently, Sato et al. proposed an public verifiable blind quantum computation (BQC) protocol by inserting a third-party arbiter. However, it is not true public verifiable in a sense, because the arbiter is determined in advance and participates in the whole process. In this paper, a public verifiable protocol for measurement-only BQC is proposed. The fidelity between arbitrary states and the graph states of 2-colorable graphs is estimated by measuring the entanglement witnesses of the graph states,so as to verify the correctness of the prepared graph states. Compared with the previous protocol, our protocol is public verifiable in the true sense by allowing other random clients to execute the public verification. It also has greater advantages in the efficiency, where the number of local measurements is O(n^3*log {n}) and graph states' copies is O(n^2*log{n}).

Kuka Ermin, Tahirovic Emir

Public policy also represent a special subdiscipline within political science, within political science. They are given increasing importance and importance in the context of scientific research and scientific approaches. Public policy as a discipline of political science have their own special subject and method of research. A particularly important aspect of the scientific approach to public policy is the aspect of applying research methods as one of the stages and phases of designing scientific research. In this sense, the goal of this research is to present the application of scientific research methods in the field of public policy. Those methods are based on scientific achievements developed within the framework of modern methodology of social sciences. Scientific research methods represent an important functional part of the research project as a model of the scientific research system, predominantly of an empirical character, which is applicable to all types of research. This is precisely what imposes the need to develop a project as a prerequisite for applying scientific methods and conducting scientific research, and therefore for a more complete understanding of public policy. The conclusions that will be reached point to the fact that scientific research of public policy can not be carried out without the creation of a scientific research project as a complex scientific and operational document and the application of appropriate methods and techniques developed within the framework of scientific achievements of modern social science methodology.

Xin Gu, Gautam Kamath, Zhiwei Steven Wu

Differentially private stochastic gradient descent privatizes model training by injecting noise into each iteration, where the noise magnitude increases with the number of model parameters. Recent works suggest that we can reduce the noise by leveraging public data for private machine learning, by projecting gradients onto a subspace prescribed by the public data. However, given a choice of public datasets, it is not a priori clear which one may be most appropriate for the private task. We give an algorithm for selecting a public dataset by measuring a low-dimensional subspace distance between gradients of the public and private examples. We provide theoretical analysis demonstrating that the excess risk scales with this subspace distance. This distance is easy to compute and robust to modifications in the setting. Empirical evaluation shows that trained model accuracy is monotone in this distance.

Zhale Zarei, Maryam Hemmati

This study investigates whether monetary and fiscal policies are consistent in reaction to the demand pressure and inflationary conditions. To answer this question, the coordination between monetary and fiscal policies was examined for the period 1988:1-2021:4, based on Demid’s approach (2018) and using a model with time-varying parameters (TVP). Following the study of Kuttner (2016) in the framework of game theory, Nash equilibrium, scenarios for the interaction of these two policies were extracted in the policy matrix. The results confirm that two periods, from the first quarter of 1992 to the second quarter of 1992 (two seasons) and also from the second quarter of 2011 to the third quarter of 2011 (two seasons), were the only ones in which monetary and fiscal policymakers simultaneously and consistently tried to reduce the inflation gap. Also, in the first three seasons of 2006 and the second quarter of 2008 to the end of 2009 (7 seasons), the monetary and fiscal authorities reacted positively to the negative output gap simultaneously and had a counter-cyclical reaction to reduce the output gap in a coordinated manner. Based on these results and in the framework of the policy matrix, the Central Bank of Iran has been submissive to fiscal policies for most of the years. Therefore, it is suggested that to strengthen coordination between fiscal and monetary policymakers, establishment of some institutional arrangements and legal frameworks should be on the agenda, including the implementation of both fiscal rules and inflation targeting, and setting a legal framework for strengthening the central bank independence.

Ahmed Mohamed Habib

This study evaluates the efficiency of U.S. firms’ working capital management (WCME) by employing the data envelopment analysis technique (DEA). This study uses regression analysis to examine the impact of WCME and environmental, social, and governance (ESGP) performance on U.S. firm value. This study uses a data sample consisting of 964 firm-year observations from a longitudinal panel collected from 2016 to 2019. Endogeneity issues and the employment of additional analyses for robustness were considered. The results indicated that most firms under investigation were relatively inadequate regarding WCME and required correctional efforts by decision-makers to accomplish most reasonable efficiency, directly related to enhancing firm sales and net income. Additionally, the results reveal significant and positive influences of WCME and ESGP on firm value. The implications of this study would push decision-makers to employ the most reasonable procedures and strategies to improve the activities of a firm's WCM and ESG to boost its value and excel in the business environment.

Seda Özvar

This study examines climate change within the framework of two dimensions: its impacts and the challenges faced. The extent of climate change’s effects involve categories such as structural changes to ecosystems; water security and food production; human health and welfare; and cities, settlements and infrastructure. When making a globalassessment, complex impacts (negative and positive) appear to exist in the category of water security and food production, with the general point of view stating that negative impacts occur at high levels in the other categories. Sharing responsibilities fairly and determining goals ethically are discussed within the scope of adapting to and combatting climate change. However, global initiatives target decisions based on countries’ dominant positions as well as their political and economic strength. Other challenges have appeared due to the inefficient scope of policies, the goals determined according to global initiatives being unclear, and efforts carried out based on voluntary contributions.

Lioba Heimbach, Roger Wattenhofer

User transactions on Ethereum's peer-to-peer network are at risk of being attacked. The smart contracts building decentralized finance (DeFi) have introduced a new transaction ordering dependency to the Ethereum blockchain. As a result, attackers can profit from front- and back-running transactions. Multiple approaches to mitigate transaction reordering manipulations have surfaced recently. However, the success of individual approaches in mitigating such attacks and their impact on the entire blockchain remains largely unstudied. In this systematization of knowledge (SoK), we categorize and analyze state-of-the-art transaction reordering manipulation mitigation schemes. Instead of restricting our analysis to a scheme's success at preventing transaction reordering attacks, we evaluate its full impact on the blockchain. Therefore, we are able to provide a complete picture of the strengths and weaknesses of current mitigation schemes. We find that currently no scheme fully meets all the demands of the blockchain ecosystem. In fact, all approaches demonstrate unsatisfactory performance in at least one area relevant to the blockchain ecosystem.

منار أسامة ابراهيم عنتر

بدأ الاهتمام بالرقابة المصرفية کنتيجة منطقية لحدوث الخسائر الکبيرة في القروض وإخفاقات البنوک من الثمانينات وحتى الآن ، ثم تزايد هذا الاهتمام في ضوء الأزمة المصرفية في السنوات الأخيرة في جميع أنحاء العالم ، ونتيجة لتزايد المخاطر المصرفية في القطاع المالي، قامت البنوک بإعادة تقييم للمخاطر التي قد تواجهها وکيفية إدارتها وتبنى النظم الفعالة لإدارة المخاطر المصرفية ، ولذلک نشأت الحاجة الى وجود معايير ونماذج حديثة تستخدمها البنوک للتنبؤ بالمخاطر المالية ولتفادى الأزمات المالية وتفادى حدوثها في المستقبل . ولذلک اقترحت لجنه بازل للإشراف على البنوک معيار التقييم المصرفي للتحقيق في المنظمات المالية . ويحدد المعيار درجة المخاطر فى البنک قبل کشفها عبر أليه السوق بشهور عديدة.بدأ الاهتمام بالرقابة المصرفية کنتيجة منطقية لحدوث الخسائر الکبيرة في القروض وإخفاقات البنوک من الثمانينات وحتى الآن ، ثم تزايد هذا الاهتمام في ضوء الأزمة المصرفية في السنوات الأخيرة في جميع أنحاء العالم ، ونتيجة لتزايد المخاطر المصرفية في القطاع المالي، قامت البنوک بإعادة تقييم للمخاطر التي قد تواجهها وکيفية إدارتها وتبنى النظم الفعالة لإدارة المخاطر المصرفية ، ولذلک نشأت الحاجة الى وجود معايير ونماذج حديثة تستخدمها البنوک للتنبؤ بالمخاطر المالية ولتفادى الأزمات المالية وتفادى حدوثها في المستقبل .

Peter B. Lerner

The notion of “relativistic finance” became ingrained in the public imagination and has been asserted in many mass-media reports. However, despite an observed drive of the most reputable Wall Street firms to establish their servers ever closer to the trading hubs, there is surprisingly little concrete information related to the relativistic delay of the trading orders. There is an underlying assumption that faster electronics are always beneficial to the stability of the network. In this paper, the author proposes a modified M/M/G queue theory to describe the propagation of the trading signal with finite velocity. Based on this theory, we demonstrate that, even if the reaction time of the system is negligible, the propagating signal is distorted by simple acts of trading along the transmission line.