Hasil untuk "Economics"

J. Schumpeter

O. Williamson

D. Stirling

Shouchuan Hu, Nikolaos S. Papageorgiou

P. Samuelson

Aditya Humnabadkar

Network analysis of inter-industry payment flows reveals structural economic relationships invisible to traditional bilateral measurement approaches, with significant implications for real-time economic monitoring. Analysing 532,346 UK payment records (2017--2024) across 89 industry sectors, we demonstrate that graph-theoretic features which include centrality measures and clustering coefficients improve payment flow forecasting by 8.8 percentage points beyond traditional time-series methods. Critically, network features prove most valuable during economic disruptions: during the COVID-19 pandemic, when traditional forecasting accuracy collapsed (R2} falling from 0.38 to 0.19), network-enhanced models maintained substantially better performance, with network contributions reaching +13.8 percentage points. The analysis identifies Financial Services, Wholesale Trade, and Professional Services as structurally central industries whose network positions indicate systemic importance beyond their transaction volumes. Network density increased 12.5\% over the sample period, with visible disruption during 2020 followed by recovery exceeding pre-pandemic integration levels. These findings suggest payment network monitoring could enhance official statistics production by providing leading indicators of structural economic change and improving nowcasting accuracy during periods when traditional temporal patterns prove unreliable.

Nuno Garoupa, Rok Spruk

This paper examines whether major political institutional disruptions produce temporary shocks or structural breaks in long-term development. Using the 1979 Iranian Revolution as a natural experiment, we apply the synthetic control method to estimate its causal effect on economic growth and institutional quality. Drawing on a panel of 66 countries from 1950 to 2015, we construct counterfactual trajectories for Iran in the absence of revolutionary change. Our results show a persistent and statistically significant divergence in per capita GDP, institutional quality, and legal constraints on executive power. We perform in-space and in-time placebo tests to rule out confounding events, such as the Iran-Iraq War and international sanctions, and propose confidence interval estimation to address uncertainty in treatment effects. The findings identify the Iranian Revolution as a structural institutional rupture, with implications for the classification of institutional change more broadly. We contribute a generalizable empirical framework for distinguishing between temporary and structural institutional shocks in long-run development.

Fausto Cavalli, Alessandra Mainini, Enrico Moretto et al.

We propose an evolutionary model to study the transition toward green technology under the influence of innovation. Clean and dirty technologies are selected according to their profitability under an environmental tax, which depends on the overall pollution level. Pollution itself evolves dynamically: it results from the emissions of the two types of producers, naturally decays, and is reduced through the implementation of the current abatement technology. The regulator collects tax revenues and allocates them between the implementation of the existing abatement technology and its innovation, which increases the stock of knowledge and thereby enhances abatement effectiveness. From a static perspective, we show the existence of steady states, both with homogeneous populations of clean or dirty producers and with heterogeneous populations where both technologies coexist. We discuss the mechanisms through which these steady states emerge and how they may evolve into one another. From a dynamical perspective, we characterize the resulting scenarios, showing how innovation can foster a green transition if coupled with a suitable level of taxation. At the same time, we investigate how improper environmental policies may also produce unintended outcomes, such as environmental deterioration, reversion to dirty technology, or economic unsustainability.

Yue Yin

In online advertising systems, publishers often face a trade-off in information disclosure strategies: while disclosing more information can enhance efficiency by enabling optimal allocation of ad impressions, it may lose revenue potential by decreasing uncertainty among competing advertisers. Similar to other challenges in market design, understanding this trade-off is constrained by limited access to real-world data, leading researchers and practitioners to turn to simulation frameworks. The recent emergence of large language models (LLMs) offers a novel approach to simulations, providing human-like reasoning and adaptability without necessarily relying on explicit assumptions about agent behavior modeling. Despite their potential, existing frameworks have yet to integrate LLM-based agents for studying information asymmetry and signaling strategies, particularly in the context of auctions. To address this gap, we introduce InfoBid, a flexible simulation framework that leverages LLM agents to examine the effects of information disclosure strategies in multi-agent auction settings. Using GPT-4o, we implemented simulations of second-price auctions with diverse information schemas. The results reveal key insights into how signaling influences strategic behavior and auction outcomes, which align with both economic and social learning theories. Through InfoBid, we hope to foster the use of LLMs as proxies for human economic and social agents in empirical studies, enhancing our understanding of their capabilities and limitations. This work bridges the gap between theoretical market designs and practical applications, advancing research in market simulations, information design, and agent-based reasoning while offering a valuable tool for exploring the dynamics of digital economies.

Valerio De Stefano, Maddalena Mula, Manuel Sebastian Mariani et al.

A rich theoretical and empirical literature investigated the link between export diversification and firm performance. Prior theoretical works hinted at the key role of capability accumulation in shaping production activities and performance, without however producing product-level indicators able to forecast corporate growth. Building on economic complexity theory and the corporate growth literature, this paper examines which characteristics of a firm's export basket predict future performance. We analyze a unique longitudinal dataset that covers export and financial data for 12,852 Italian firms. We find that firms exporting products typically exported by wealthier countries -- a proxy for greater product sophistication and market value -- tend to experience higher growth and profit per employee. Moreover, we find that diversification outside of a firm's core production area is positively associated with future growth, whereas diversification within the core is negatively associated. This is revealed by introducing novel measures of in-block and out-of-block diversification, based on algorithmically-detected production blocks. Our findings suggest that growth is driven not just by how many products a firm exports, but also by where these products lie within the production ecosystem, at both local and global scales.

Natia Kurdgelia

Regional development is the main vector of the state's regional economic policy. Policies aimed at stimulating economic activity in a specific region of the country are always important. As a rule, the object of regional policy is economically backward compared to its neighboring territories. After Georgia gained independence, regional economic policy was implemented on various scales and using various instruments. However, due to the political and economic processes developing in the country in the first decade, these efforts were minimal. The paper discusses in detail the specifics of the formation of gross domestic product and regional characteristics in Georgia, and analyzes the contribution of regions to GDP generation. The differentiation of regions according to types of economic activity and the difficulties caused by the asymmetric development of regions are presented. The irrational and asymmetrical distribution of resources among regions is the main condition for the weakening of the country. This is reflected in development inequalities and socio-economic problems. The joint efforts of the regions in terms of integrating labor, financial, and natural resources will contribute to solving the problems of regional economic development. It is necessary to develop standards for territorial economic development strategies, a unified methodology, tools, and performance indicators for the strategic planning process. This requires the implementation of legislative and other regulatory and normative changes. It is necessary to conduct regular analysis of regional opportunities, the resulting rankings of which will allow us to assess investment attractiveness and identify challenges.

І. Б. Запухляк, Н. І. Маланюк

Процеси глобалізації та інтеграції, зокрема обмін технологіями, досвідом та фахівцями, поєднання внутрішнього потенціалу країни та можливостей глобального середовища не оминули і сферу освіти. У цьому аспекті освіта набуває важливого значення для забезпечення успішних інтеграційних процесів, що призводить, своєю чергою, до змін в системі освіти. Метою дослідження є вивчення процесів інтернаціоналізації вищої освіти з позиції теорії зацікавлених сторін та розроблення методичних рекомендацій щодо оцінювання стейкхолдерів закладу вищої  освіти (ЗВО). У дослідженні застосовано поєднання історичного, гносеологічного, порівняльного та концептуального аналізів інтернаціоналізації вищої освіти, що дозволило  розвинути концепцію інтернаціоналізації вищої освіти з врахуванням теорії стейкхолдерів та запропонувати методичний підхід до оцінювання стейкхолдерів інтернаціоналізації ЗВО. На основі історичного аналізу з’ясовано еволюцію ЗВО з позиції теорії стейкхолдерів, порівняльний аналіз класифікацій стейкхолдерів дозволив сформувати перелік зацікавлених сторін в інтернаціоналізації ЗВО та підібрати критерії для їх оцінювання. У роботі вивчено підходи до розуміння і класифікації стейкхолдерів у вищій освіті, що дозволило ідентифікувати зацікавлених сторін в інтернаціоналізації ЗВО. Досліджено еволюцію ЗВО з позиції теорії стейкхолдерів, що дозволило виокремити кожне покоління університетів, їх характеристику та показати зміну у ключових стейкхолдерах. Запропоновано розглядати сучасний ЗВО як університет зацікавлених сторін. Розглянуто процес залучення стейкхолдерів як послідовність ідентифікації, картування/аналізу, визначення пріоритетів, формування каналів комунікації, врахування потреб та інтересів, розробка стратегії залучення. Розроблено матрицю критеріїв ідентифікації стейкхолдерів для подальшого їх картографування та визначення стратегії взаємодії. Теоретичне значення дослідження полягає у розвитку концепції інтернаціоналізації ЗВО на основі теорії стейкхолдерів. Практична цінність проявляється через можливість застосування запропонованої матриці критеріїв для ідентифікації зацікавлених сторін інтернаціоналізації ЗВО та визначення характеру їх впливу. Наукова новизна полягає у розвитку концептуальних засад та прикладних аспектів інтернаціоналізації ЗВО з врахуванням зацікавлених осіб. Подальші дослідження доцільно спрямувати на вивчення стейкхолдерів інтернаціоналізації вітчизняних ЗВО, виявлення характеру їх впливу на процеси міжнародного розвитку ЗВО, розробити стратегію взаємодії ЗВО із ключовими зацікавленими сторонами.

Via Afrianti, Ma’mun Sarma

Global warming can be caused by various sectors, one of which is the transportation sector. The use of gasoline is one of the main contributors to energy consumption. Conventional cars typically use gasoline as fuel to support the mobility of their users. The use of this fuel can have negative impacts on the environment, such as greenhouse gas emissions and air pollution. Therefore, electric vehicles could be a potential solution to reduce these impacts. However, it cannot be denied that there are several barriers to the adoption of electric vehicles. Through the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) analysis, this study explores the influence of attitudes toward behavior, subjective norms, and perceived behavioral control on the intention to purchase electric vehicles among millennials. Additionally, it examines the motivations of millennials in their purchase intentions and the moderating role of gender in the intention to buy electric vehicles. The study sample consists of millennials living in the Jabodetabek area with an interest in electric vehicles. A quantitative method with a Structural Equation Modeling (SEM)-PLS approach is used to analyze the relationships among the variables studied. The results show that TPB and motivation influence the intention to purchase electric vehicles among millennials in Jabodetabek. Meanwhile, gender moderation only influences the relationship between perceived behavioral control and the intention to buy electric vehicles among millennials in Jabodetabek.

Rodolfo G. Campos, Benedikt Heid, Jacopo Timini

The Cold War was the defining episode of geopolitical fragmentation in the twentieth century. Trade between East and West across the Iron Curtain (a symbolical and physical barrier dividing Europe into two distinct areas) was restricted, but the severity of these restrictions varied over time. We quantify the trade and welfare effects of the Iron Curtain and show how the difficulty of trading across the Iron Curtain fluctuated throughout the Cold War. Using a novel dataset on trade between the two economic blocs and a quantitative trade model, we find that while the Iron Curtain at its height represented a tariff equivalent of 48% in 1951, trade between East and West gradually became easier until the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. Despite the easing of trade restrictions, we estimate that the Iron Curtain roughly halved East-West trade flows and caused substantial welfare losses in the Eastern bloc countries that persisted until the end of the Cold War. Conversely, the Iron Curtain led to an increase in intra-bloc trade, especially in the Eastern bloc, which outpaced the integration of Western Europe in the run-up to the formation of the European Union.

Radosław Rutkowski, Miłosz Raczyński, Remigiusz Iwańkowicz et al.

The article explores the potential of Digital Twin (DT) technology in the design and dynamic assessment of the energy performance of multi-family buildings. Traditional approaches to building energy assessment provide static data that do not account for changing operational conditions and lack continuous energy consumption-monitoring capabilities. The use of Digital Twin enables monitoring and analyzing of the building’s energy parameters at every stage of its life cycle. The article presents the application of DT technology for assessing energy performance at the conceptual stage and in the early phases of design. These parameters must meet legal requirements. Validation conducted on four multi-family buildings demonstrated high accuracy, with the average difference between predicted and actual energy performance (EP) values below 3.5%. Thanks to the DT model, it is possible to determine energy parameters already at the conceptual stage, which helps avoid costly changes in later project phases. Early determination of these parameters also allows for accurate estimation of design and investment costs. Tests of the proposed solution were conducted on several multi-family buildings, comparing preliminary data with final results. The research results show that DT technology allows for precise planning of energy performance at the conceptual and preliminary design stages. This reduces operational costs, increases energy efficiency, and better adapts buildings to changing technological and legal conditions.

Олена Головня

Стаття присвячена проблемі теоретичних і практичних основ дослідження й обґрунтування механізмів формування та реалізації стратегії розвитку водного туризму на основі концепції цілей сталого розвитку та гармонізації взаємовідносин у системі «екологія–економіка–cуспільство». Доведено, що в системі внутрішнього туризму провідне місце посідає водний туризм. Автор звертає увагу, що розрізняють некатегорійні та категорійні водні маршрути. Найчастіше застосовують американську версію International Scale of River Difficulty (American Whitewater), згідно з якою всі річки для сплавів ділять на шість категорій. В статті проаналізовані найпопулярніші водні маршрути України для організованих сплавів ІІ-ІІІ категорії складності, серед яких провідне місце займають Білий та Чорний Черемош в межах Івано-Франківської області.

Наталія Овчарова

Стаття присвячена актуальним питанням формування обліково-інформаційного забезпечення сталого розвитку сільськогосподарських підприємств. Доведено, що розвиток концепції стійкого розвитку потребує врахування нових факторів стабільного функціонування суб’єктів господарювання в поточній та довгостроковій перспективі. При цьому на кожному шаблі розвитку виникає потреба формування інформаційної бази яка б спиралася на відповідну нормативну базу, враховувала внутрішні та зовнішні запити та особливості розвитку галузі. В статті проаналізовано особливості формування облікового забезпечення сільськогосподарської галузі, його слабкі та сильні сторони в контексті розвитку концепції сталого розвитку. Сформована система облікового-забезпечення сталого розвитку сільськогосподарських підприємств.

Icinqsley Laffer.

Hanxin Zhao

Green ammonia is poised to be a key part in the hydrogen economy. This paper discusses green ammonia supply chains from a higher-level industry perspective with a focus on market structures. The architecture of upstream and downstream supply chains are explored. Potential ways to accelerate market emergence are discussed. Market structure is explored based on transaction cost economics and lessons from the oil and gas industry. Three market structure prototypes are developed for different phases. In the infancy, a highly vertically integrated structure is proposed to reduce risks and ensure capital recovery. A restructuring towards a disintegrated structure is necessary in the next stage to improve the efficiency. In the late stage, a competitive structure characterized by a separation between asset ownership and production activities and further development of short-term and spot markets is proposed towards a market-driven industry. Finally, a multi-linear regression model is developed to evaluate the developed structures using a case in the gas industry. Results indicate that high asset specificity and uncertainty and low frequency lead to a more disintegrated market structure, and vice versa, thus supporting the structures designed. We assume the findings and results contribute to developing green ammonia supply chains and the hydrogen economy.

Philipp Andreas Gunkel, Febin Kachirayil, Claire-Marie Bergaentzlé et al.

Recent years have shown a rapid adoption of residential solar PV with increased self-consumption and self-sufficiency levels in Europe. A major driver for their economic viability is the electricity tax exemption for the consumption of self-produced electricity. This leads to large residential PV capacities and partially overburdened distribution grids. Furthermore, the tax exemption that benefits wealthy households that can afford capital-intense investments in solar panels in particular has sparked discussions about energy equity and the appropriate taxation level for self-consumption. This study investigates the implementation of uniform electricity taxes on all consumption, irrespective of the origin of the production, by means of a case study of 155,000 hypothetical Danish prosumers. The results show that the new taxation policy redistributes costs progressively across household sizes. As more consumption is taxed, the tax level can be reduced by 38%, leading to 61% of all households seeing net savings of up to 23% off their yearly tax bill. High-occupancy houses save an average of 116 Euro per year at the expense of single households living in large dwellings who pay 55 Euro per year more. Implementing a uniform electricity tax in combination with a reduced overall tax level can (a) maintain overall tax revenues and (b) increase the interaction of batteries with the grid at the expense of behind-the-meter operations. In the end, the implicit cross-subsidy is removed by taxing self-consumption uniformly, leading to a cost redistribution supporting occupant-dense households and encouraging the flexible behavior of prosumers. This policy measure improves economic efficiency and greater use of technology with positive system-wide impacts.