Hasil untuk "Economic theory. Demography"

Petrukha Nina M., Petrukha Serhii V. , Tiurmenko Yaroslav M. et al.

The article surveys the introduction of rational allocation of financial and material resources in the sphere of security and defense as a factor that significantly enhances the resilience of the State against modern challenges. The conditions of dynamic changes in the security environment that necessitate the use of the latest methods for assessing economic feasibility and optimizing strategic planning in the sphere of security and defense capability are considered. Special attention is given to the development of scientifically grounded approaches and econometric models to enhance the resilience and adaptability of the new defense economy. In the study, statistical data from 20 security and defense projects implemented in Ukraine, which encompass the development of new weaponry prototypes and the modernization of existing defense and security systems, were analyzed. The multiple regression method was used to assess the impact of key factors on current costs, as well as the least squares method to build a mathematical model for forecasting expenditure levels and optimizing the material and financial resources involved. It is determined that the largest impact on costs comes from management and operational items, main supply resources, and long-term investment needs. A level model of strategic management has been developed, taking into account innovative, risk, and inflation components, which confirms that high-tech projects with significant innovative potential ensure long-term economic efficiency. Prospects for further research include expanding the database to analyze a larger number of projects, implementing digital cost monitoring tools, and adapting the constructed econometric model to the conditions of other countries and defense systems. A priority direction is the development of integrated methods for assessing risks and effectiveness in the context of global transformational challenges.

Chun-Sung Huang, Ayesha Sayed

Price volatility in grain markets, especially for maize, has substantial socio-economic impacts, particularly in low-income regions where food security remains a critical concern. Accurate forecasting of grain price volatility is therefore crucial in safeguarding the financial interests of commodity traders, as well as shielding consumers from detrimental effects of inflationary food prices. This study proposes a hybrid Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) model, integrated with generalised autoregressive conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH)-type methods, to forecast white maize futures volatility in South Africa. By comparing the forecasting accuracy of the hybrid BLSTM model against several benchmarks, including standard LSTM and BLSTM models, our results demonstrate notable improvements in prediction accuracy, as shown through heteroscedasticity-adjusted performance metrics. The key contribution of this research is its enhancement of volatility forecasting by combining advanced machine learning with traditional econometric approaches, bridging a gap in predictive accuracy for commodity price dynamics. Additionally, this study supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Zero Hunger and Responsible Consumption and Production, by improving food price stability and risk management in agriculture. This approach exemplifies the evolving role of data science in financial analysis, offering market participants an effective tool to manage price risk and improve food security.Impact Statement This study introduces a novel hybrid forecasting model that integrates GARCH-type econometric techniques with Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory (BLSTM) neural networks to predict the realised volatility of white maize futures. As white maize is a staple food, accurate volatility forecasting directly contributes to improved food security and price stability. The model significantly outperforms traditional approaches and standard deep learning models across multiple forecast horizons, offering a powerful risk management tool for farmers, traders, and policymakers. By enhancing the accuracy of agricultural price forecasts, this research supports the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), particularly Zero Hunger (SDG 2) and Responsible Consumption and Production (SDG 12), while also demonstrating the value of advanced data science methods in addressing real-world socio-economic challenges.

V. B. Dankova

Introduction. The social order of the pedagogical education system is aimed at forming independent experience in research activities (R&D) in future teachers, which made it possible to emphasize the relevance of the problem of developing third-year students’ ability for self-management of the individual as a result of writing a final qualifying work (FQW). The ability for self-management is considered as an integrated quality of the individual, which provides them with independent regulation of self-development and self-management of their professional and pedagogical self-determination in R&D. Goal. The aim of the study was a comprehensive process of describing the development of students’ ability for self-management in R&D, which contributes to the professional and pedagogical development of the individual when performing scientific work. Materials and methods. The methodological basis of the study were the main works devoted to the study of the ability for self-management of the individual byN.M. Peysakhova, N.K. Tutyshkina et al. The study of the hierarchically organized system of student self-government (self-processes) in professional and pedagogical development in the research and educational institution was conducted using the adapted methodology of N.M. Peysakhov in 2024. The study involved 20 third-year full-time undergraduate students of Pedagogical Education (Preschool Education profile) in the Institute of Psychology and Education of the Kazan Federal University. Mathematical statistical and correlation analysis of the results processing was carried out using Excel 2010 programs. Results and discussion. The work presents empirical data on the development of the ability to self-government of an individual, illustrating the feasibility of developing support for the  professional and pedagogical development of students from the first year of study in the context of the implementation of the main professional educational program of higher education for the development of self-government ability in the research and educational institution, ensuring the formation of a hierarchically organized system of self-processes for writing final qualifying work. Conclusion. The presented empirical data can be used in designing a system for supporting students in the process of writing a scientific research, taking into account a hierarchically organized system for developing the ability to self-manage in scientific research, which contributes to self-determination and self-development in the profession

Dewa Nyoman Benni Kusyana, Putu Sri Hartati, Ida Ayu Widani Sugianingrat et al.

This research was conducted to determine the influence of organizational culture on business performance, mediated by innovation and moderated by catur purusa artha. The subjects of this research were the cooperative heads or managers of 503 cooperative units in Denpasar City. The Yamane formula was used to determine the sample size, which was determined to be 83 cooperative heads/managers using a proportionate random sampling technique. Data analysis was carried out using structural equation modelling – partial least squares (SEM-PLS). Data analysis using PLS was carried out with two measurement models, namely the outer model and the inner model. The results of the analysis prove that organizational culture has no significant effect on business performance. Innovation acts as a full mediating variable in the influence of organizational culture on business performance. Catur purusa artha has a positive and significant effect on business performance and acts as a moderator of the relationship between organizational culture and business performance. The findings of this research answer the shortcomings of the resource-based view by placing innovation, which is a dynamic capability, as a mediator and catur purusa artha as a moderator.

Andrea Bernardi, Margherita Iagulli

Dopo il fallimento della Comunità Europea di Difesa (CED) nel 1954, il percorso verso una vera politica comune europea di sicurezza e di difesa è stato lungo e frammentato. Tuttavia, nell’ultimo decennio ci sono stati rinnovati sforzi, per lo più guidati da shock e crisi esterne, l’ultima delle quali è rappresentata dal conflitto russo-ucraino. L’urgenza di rispondere in modo rapido ed efficace ai conflitti, la necessità di essere preparati ad affrontare minacce nuove (e ibride) e l’obiettivo di raggiungere una “autonomia strategica” hanno riportato in primo piano il dibattito sulla difesa comune. Anche se permangono ancora grandi lacune che devono essere affrontate, molto è stato ottenuto – o sta per essere raggiunto – in termini di efficacia istituzionale e operativa della Politica di sicurezza e difesa comune (PSDC), di coordinamento del procurement militare, e di rafforzamento dell’industria della difesa. Infatti, nonostante la persistenza di differenti visioni strategiche, l’integrazione industriale è già realtà e sta diventando, oggi più che mai, una priorità.

MAURICIO TIOMMO TOLMASQUIM

RESUMO Ignácio Rangel é um dos poucos economistas brasileiros a refletir sobre a relação entre ciclos de negócios e a história da economia brasileira. Neste artigo, utilizamos esse assunto como um “fio” de conexão de parte de seu trabalho.

MIRICĂ ANDREEA, PETCU IONELA-ROXANA

In the present context, the consumption and saving patterns are subjected to change both locally and worldwide. The evidence on consumption reveals the importance of data handling and processing using the most relevant tools available. This research paper looks into official statistics data of Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) for milling and baking products and is based on seasonal adjustment. As such, JDemetra+ software is selected as officially recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment. First section presents the official software recommended by Eurostat for seasonal adjustment, while section two discusses the characteristics and functionalities of the software. Furthermore, the following section presents the selected seasonal adjustment technique and describes the usage of monthly data. Section four analysing the results of all the seasonality tests for the selected series is followed next by a brief concluding remarks and observations section. Moreover, in terms of the conducted analysis, the paper examines to test JDemetra+ 3.0.0 pre-release version against JDemetra+ 2.2.4. Evidence favouring JDemetra+ 2.2.4 is obtained, the results showing that some new strategies might be needed in order to obtain better results on seasonal adjustment process using TRAMO-SEATS in JDemetra+ 3.0.0. Seasonal adjustment practitioners in official statistics should be aware and recognize the impact of statistical package selection. In this respect, optimal selection of analysis procedures is needed in the evaluation of a series and thus migrating from JDemetra+ 2.2.4 to JDemetra+ 3.0.0 is problematic without employing resources in developing appropriate strategies for improvement of the obtained results.

Putri Perdana, Ateng Ruhendi, Diah Siti Sadi'ah

Qanun on Islamic financial institutions is one way for the Aceh government to present a community economy that is in accordance with Islamic teachings. However, the people of Alue Dawah village, Babahrot sub-district, still carry out muamalah practices that are not in accordance with Islamic teachings, these practices are transactions that still contain elements of usury. This study aims to determine the understanding of the people of Alue Dawah village that there is usury, to find out the types of usury practices that are often carried out by the people of Alue Dawah village and to know the application of Aceh Qanun No. 11 of 2018 on the practice of usury in the village community of Alue Dawah. This study uses a qualitative method with a descriptive analytical approach and normative juridical, to collect data in the Alue Dawah village community and describe or explain what is from the results of the research and synchronize the qanun of Islamic financial institutions so that it can be compiled in written form (narrative), interpreted and analyzed. The results show that the people of Alue Dawah village can understand usury and its law from various perspectives, although they cannot explain it systematically. The practice of usury that is often carried out by the people of Alue Dawah village is usury qard and usury jahiliyah, while the current application of the qanun of Islamic financial institutions has not shown any connection with usury practices carried out by the people of Alue Dawah village. Qanun Lembaga Keuangan Syariah merupakan salah satu cara pemerintah Aceh menghadirkan ekonomi syariah di tengah-tengah masyarakat Aceh. Kenyataannya, masih ada desa yang tidak melaksanakan Qanun tersebut. Masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah kecamatan Babahrot masih melakukan praktik riba. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui pemahaman masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah terhadap riba, mengetahui jenis praktik riba yang sering dilakukan oleh masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah dan mengetahui penerapan Qanun Aceh No. 11 Tahun 2018 terhadap praktik riba di masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode kualitatif dengan pendekatan deskriptif analitis dan yuridis normatif. Penulis mengumpulkan data, sinkroniasasi dengan Qanun, menganalisis, dan memaparkan dalam bentuk naratif. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebenarnya masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah mengetahui jenis-jenis riba dan hukumnya, namun tidak dapat memahami dan menjelaskan secara sistematis. Oleh karena itu, masyarakat masih melakukan praktik riba. Praktik riba yang sering dilakukan masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah ialah riba qard dan riba jahiliyah. Kesimpulannya, Qanun Lembaga Keuangan Syariah belum banyak dipahami dan dilaksanakan oleh masyarakat Desa Alue Dawah.

Nataliya Yudina

The war in Ukraine has exacerbated the situation of significant uncertainty in the world. Understanding economic background of the reasons and also long-term forecasting its consequences for the world economy is very important. This article is to be included into the critical mass of different points of view for developing the approach to this item. Two untypical features of the global economy were shown as the economic butterfly consequences of the previous concept of the world development. The transferring to the information society and the technogenic era assumed the main reasons of them. The main features of the contemporary stage of the global economy and the high likelihood of the wars were demonstrated in the article. But the necessity to define the future economic values correctly was highlighted. It was demonstrated that the war in Ukraine will change the branch structure of the global economy and its type. The futurological lucrative perspectives for the Ukrainian economy were shown for supporting the development of the information society and the technogenic economy.

Lucia Violeta Melnic, Marian Andrei Gurău, Ruxandra Marin

The main objective of the “AOA critical networks” concept in the manufacturing flow is to support companies that want to improve their processes so that they become more competitive by implementing various tools and techniques for continuous improvement. At present, it is known that a high level of productivity can be obtained and maintained only by involving all the actors involved in the production process, and to optimize the production flow as a whole, action must be taken to increase flexibility, the means of production and therefore their reactivity. The AON critical networks method can be integrated in the analysis of production systems, especially regarding the optimization of production flows. The main object of the research is the development of an adaptive production planning system that can optimize the flow of materials, which will lead to an optimal cost of the production project.

Minh Chau Nguyen

This study proposes and evaluates a framework in examining the effects of destination image and environmental beliefs on the willingness to pay (WTP) for green hotels. Additionally, the study finds that the role of customer attitude to green hotels has an important role in the proposed framework. Data were collected using a structured questionnaire with 317 valid responses. CFA and SEM were employed to analyze data through SPSS AMOS 20.0 software. The findings show that destination image has the largest direct impact on attitude to green hotels while environmental beliefs have the largest direct effect on WTP premium for green hotels. Moreover, attitude to green hotels plays a mediating role between destination image and the WTP and between environmental beliefs and the WTP.

Gracia Liu-Farrer

Immigrant Japan? Sounds like a contradiction, but as this book shows, millions of immigrants make their lives in Japan, dealing with the tensions between belonging and not belonging in this ethno-nationalist country. Why do people want to come to Japan? Where do immigrants with various resources and demographic profiles fit in the economic landscape? How do immigrants narrate belonging in an environment where they are “other” at a time when mobility is increasingly easy and belonging increasingly complex? The book illuminates the lives of these immigrants by bringing in sociological, geographical, and psychological theories—guiding the reader through life trajectories of migrants of diverse backgrounds while also going so far as to suggest that Japan is already an immigrant country.

STEFÁNIA DANKÓ, ISTVÁN MOLNÁR

Az adósságráta az elmúlt években folyamatosan a figyelem középpontjában állt hazánkban, az államadósság szerkezete azonban kevesebb hangsúlyt kapott. Az államadósság devizaaránya és külső kitettsége fontos hatást gyakorol az adósságpálya jövőbeli alakulására, az adósságszerkezet ugyanis a későbbi évek adósságszolgálati terheit is meghatározza. Az adósságkezelési stratégiát ugyanakkor számos kockázat, többek között az árfolyam-, a finanszírozási és a kamatkockázat mérlegelésével kell kialakítani. A következőkben a szerzők az adóssághoz kapcsolódó kockázatokat alapvetően befolyásoló két adósságkezelési kérdést tekintik át: az államadósság devizaarányát és a külföldi befektetők jelenlétének mértékét.

Maja Djundeva, P. Dykstra, T. Emery

This review offers a joint perspective on Chinese and European key demographic trends in the family domain, emphasising the impact of macro-level social structures and institutions on individual life courses. We outline key demographic shifts across the Netherlands, Germany, the UK and China in the period after the ‘golden age of the welfare state’ in Europe and the ‘post-reform’ era in China (after the 1970s). Several empirical trends are highlighted, with a focus on: rising inequality in China and persistent inequality in Europe; the traditional family sequence in China and de-standardization of life courses in Europe; ending with similarities between countries in population aging and differences in later life courses with regards to intergenerational transfers. We draw upon a range of theoretical frameworks to argue that trends in marriage, fertility and intergenerational relationships reflect tensions between rapid social and economic changes and discuss the limitations of modernisation theories and the second demographic transition.

N. A. Dubrovina, E. Neubauerova, I. V. Kolupaieva et al.

The purpose of the research: to analyze the main tendencies of the tax revenue and social contributions in EU countries, to study the hypothesis concerning convergence of the annual growth rates of the total tax revenue (including social contributions) to the GDP in European Union countries during the last decade and to build the predicted values for the total tax revenue (including social contributions) as GDP percentage in EU countries. The research was conducted based on the time serious analysis) and forecasting method to predict data values of the total revenue to the GDP. The analysis presented in the research has shown that tax revenues in the main tax categories displayed a corresponding pattern, with a differing fiscal lag for direct taxes, indirect taxes and social contributions. Correlation analysis has shown that many countries of EU essentially correlate ratio of the total tax revenues to the GDP. Using the presented models for the time series of the total revenue to the GDP in Eiropenean Union counties, the predicted values were obtained. The research has shown that some countries have common characters of the total revenue, and some gruop of countries has varies. Regardless of the declaration of the common economic policy in EU, as well as levy system in EU, the research has noticed some differences in the total revenues concerning the GDP trends. The impact of possible convergence in tax burden policy in EU countries explains these differences. In order to harmonize tax policy and to increase the fiscal role of taxation in the EU countries, such measures are proposed: application of unified procedures and conditions of administration of taxes and other budget revenues; differentiation of tax rates and establishment of the upper limit of their size; introduction of a unified tax base; differentiation of objects of taxation with the purpose of increase of tax revenues to the budget and avoiding increase of tax burden for population and others.

L. Artamonova, T. Shpilkina, I. Kvasov

The article discusses the problems of organization of scientific and production activities with the aim of import substitution as a systemic problem of the national economy. The authors believe that the most appropriate theoretical basis is the mechanism of the triple helix, with some adaptation to modern conditions. This tool can make only with qualified personnel, who must be prepared according to the “dual education”. Recommendations for the integrated management of human capital development.

Christopher Jencks, M. Phillips