Hasil untuk "Risk in industry. Risk management"

Deli Xiao, Shuyang Wu, Zhihao Zhu et al.

Under global change, drought disasters have become increasingly frequent in China, but current research lacks the quantitative driving mechanism of drought by dominant driving factors at multiply spatio-temporal scales. Therefore, this research portrays the spatial pattern of drought in China from 2000 to 2022 based on the temperature-vegetation drought index (TVDI), combined with the Mann–Kendall test and Hurst trend analysis and we introduced the pixel-wise empirical modal decomposition (EMD) method to quantitatively identify the dominant periods and driving factors of drought in China. Integrating the TVDI with a pixel-wise EMD approach reveals multi-scale drought characteristics across China and quantitatively identifies the dominant drivers of drought over multi-temporal scales. The results indicate that precipitation (PRE) is the primary driver of seasonal drought. NDVI shows high sensitivity to drought in ecologically vulnerable regions, while potential evapotranspiration dominates interannual drought dynamics in the arid northwest. Moreover, maximum temperature (Tmax) significantly drives interdecadal drought patterns in northern China. Additionally, as the dominant drought period lengthens, the influence of PRE gradually diminishes, whereas the role of Tmax becomes increasingly prominent. The pixel-wise EMD method can provide a more accurate scientific basis for quantifying multi-scale drought risk.

Yanguo Li, Chao Long

Stock market volatility is a pivotal research area in finance, and accurately forecasting stock market volatility has long been a challenge for both academia and practice. The emergence of the new energy industry has drawn widespread attention to new energy stock indices; however, research on forecasting their volatility remains limited. To address this, this paper proposes a deep learning ensemble model based on decomposition optimization for predicting the volatility of new energy stock indices. The model comprises three components: variational mode decomposition (VMD), sparrow search algorithm (SSA), and echo state network (ESN). Initially, this paper employs VMD to decompose the original volatility series of new energy stock indices into multiple subsequences. Subsequently, SSA is utilized to optimize ESN. Finally, the constructed VMD-SSA-ESN model is employed to forecast the volatility of new energy stock indices. Through comparative analysis with other forecasting models, this paper finds that the VMD-SSA-ESN model exhibits significantly better forecasting performance across all selected new energy stock index volatility predictions. The research results indicate that the model constructed in this paper can adequately capture the characteristics of the volatility series, and both VMD and SSA effectively enhance the model’s forecasting accuracy and stability. This study can provide robust support for investment decision-making and risk management in the new energy stock market.

Xu Zhang, Jiuyuan Yang, Lei Yi et al.

On 7 January 2025, the MW 7.1 Dingri earthquake in China ruptured a nearly north-south-trending normal-faulting fault within the southern Tibetan Plateau. We employed multi-array back-projection and finite-fault inversion methods to investigate the rupture process of the earthquake by integrating seismic and geodetic observations. Our results show that this earthquake ruptured a major asperity with a peak slip of 5.0 m, propagating northward at a low average speed of approximately 1.8−2.0 km/s (52%–58% of the shear wave velocity) over a main duration of approximately 25 s. The rupture initiated with very slow growth, accompanied by intense high-frequency radiation but limited slip. Notably, high-frequency sources were concentrated near the margin of the slip asperity. The energy-based average stress drop was estimated to be 5.2 MPa. The estimated radiation efficiency of this earthquake was 0.09, an extremely low value, indicating that most of the accumulated strain energy dissipated through thermal and fracturing processes. The diverse rupture signature of the 2025 Dingri earthquake highlights the physics nature of the intrinsic fault friction and stress/strength heterogeneities. Furthermore, the low rupture velocity, high stress drop, and low radiation efficiency consistently suggest that this earthquake was likely controlled by an immature seismogenic environment.

Riantini Virtriana, Tania Septi Anggraini, Kalingga Titon Nur Ihsan et al.

One of the factors of decreased productivity of rice fields is the agricultural hazards that occur in Indonesia due to climate and weather changes. One way to reduce the impact is by providing a need for information on areas affected by agricultural hazards so that it can be used for decision making in food security. This research conducts spatial modelling of agricultural hazards in rice fields integrates DEM, land cover, and precipitation data to determine flood and drought affected areas. This research calculates agriculture hazard using 4 different time scenarios: 5, 10, 25, and 50 years to obtain comprehensive agricultural hazards investigation and integrated based on two methods: expert judgment and frequency of occurrence in an area. The result shows, in the 2050 shows that the very high-class area from expert judgment and frequency of occurrence are 14131.23 and 11615.36 ha, respectively. This research is expected to identify areas that have agricultural hazards, especially in agricultural areas, and can be used for planning food security in the future.

Kresnawati Etik, Hermawati Mega Meida, Nugraheni Peni et al.

As a financial institution with an essential role in developingthe economy and national development, banks are required to have good financial performance. During the COVID-19 pandemic, many banks were affected, which increased their credit risk. In various conditions, banks need to make efforts to maintain their performance. This study, thus, aims to examine these efforts by examining the role of risk governance in moderating the value relevance of risk disclosure in the banking industry listed on the Indonesia Stock Exchange for the period 2018-2022. In two different economic conditions (before and during COVID-19), management efforts to explain the management of the company through risk disclosure and governance should have a positive impact on the sustainability of the company. Tests conducted on 145 firm samples with the Generalized Least Squares model revealed that risk disclosure and risk governance exert a positive effect on market performance. However, risk governance weakens risk disclosure in terms of market performance.

Arabella Fraser

Reflecting on the root cause framework devised for the research project preparing for extreme and rare events in coastal regions (PEARL) between 2014 and 2018 suggests a growing and evolving landscape of work building on the initial Pressure and Release (PAR) model. Empirical work using the PEARL framework added to debates about the nature, role and importance of institutions in the cross-scale interactions that drive disaster risk, even for small-scale disaster events. Going forward, its use opened up questions about our epistemologies and methodologies for root causes research in an era of systemic risk, uncertain futures and complex governance, and about tackling the layers of politics that can preclude action on reducing vulnerabilities. Contribution: The article suggests a new – and pluralised – agenda for root causes research going forward, which needs to be linked to critical understandings of the politics of root causes across disaster management and development actors and further action to reduce vulnerabilities.

Rehab A. Rayan

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a growing global threat, especially in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), causing prolonged illnesses, heightened antimicrobial use, increased healthcare expenses, and avoidable deaths. If not tackled, AMR could force 24 million people into severe poverty by 2030 and hinder progress on Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). AMR spreads through interconnected ecosystems, with humans, animals, and the environment serving as reservoirs. Pharmaceutical wastewater, loaded with antibiotics and resistance genes, poses a significant environmental risk, mainly due to inadequate treatment and irresponsible disposal. The pharmaceutical industry is a notable contributor to environmental antibiotic pollution, with varying effluent management practices. Contaminated pharmaceutical wastewater discharge harms water sources and ecosystems. Urgent collaborative efforts are needed across policymakers, regulators, manufacturers, researchers, civil society, and communities, adopting a One Health approach to curb AMR's spread. Developing global standards for pharmaceutical effluent antibiotic residues, effective treatment methods, and improved diagnostics are vital in addressing AMR's environmental impact while safeguarding public health and the environment. National action plans should encompass comprehensive strategies to combat AMR. Preserving antibiotic efficacy and ensuring sustainable production require a united front from all stakeholders.

Zhengyu Ren, Hsing Hung Chen, Kunseng Lao et al.

In the social context of advocating a low-carbon economy, achieving sustainable growth in line with current social development requirements is an issue that agribusiness must face. In order to explore the mechanisms influencing the sustainable growth of Chinese agriculture and to optimize the quality of agribusiness decisions, this paper examines the relationship between environmental management, debt financing indicators, and financial sustainable growth of the company in Chinese agriculture. Specifically, a decision support system based on the least square dummy variable (LSDV) model, mediating effects model and threshold effects model was constructed by using annual financial reports and questionnaire data of the listed agricultural enterprises. After empirical analysis, the following results were obtained: first, both environmental management and debt financing management help Chinese agricultural firms achieve financially sustainable growth. Second, debt financing can transmit the effect of environmental management on financially sustainable growth. Third, there are significant differences in the effects of debt financing on financially sustainable growth under different environmental management conditions. Finally, in order to promote the development of Chinese agriculture, this paper suggests that agricultural enterprises should actively implement environmental management and that relevant Chinese authorities should lower the financing threshold of the agricultural industry, while ensuring risk regulation.

Furqan I. Aksa, Ramdan Afrian

Flood risk reduction in Indonesia is primarily still focused on structural measures with limited research assessing community adaptation strategies. The response and adaptation strategies carried out by the community have been recognized as playing an important role in planning future mitigation actions. Community adaptation strategies are key factors in disaster risk reduction. This study aimed to determine the responses and adaptation strategies to manage tidal floods by the coastal community of Langsa City. An in-depth interview with village heads and officials, youth leaders and the community was performed to generate data. The results showed that the local community ignored the dangers of tidal floods and disregarded them as life-threatening. Furthermore, they carried out adaptations, such as raising the house level using wood materials and building dams along the coastline autonomously without government intervention. The adaptations were carried out through communal work referred to as ‘gotong royong’ (mutual cooperation). Contribution: These findings highlight the importance of ‘gotong royong’ as social capital in disaster risk reduction and government attention to conduct integrated coastal area management.

H. Aladağ, Z. Işık

Mega-engineering projects in the construction industry are generally carried out by public–private partnership models with the participation of different stakeholders. This paper aims to identify the effect of stakeholder-associated risks on the success of mega-engineering projects. Therefore, the risks were determined and then validated by focus discussions. Afterwards, an illustrative case study was presented to better understand the effects. Finally, a fuzzy analytical hierarchy process method was used to prioritize the identified risks. The prominent risks were found to include “improper partner selection,” “inadequate relationships with employer,” and “incompetent contractor selection.” Engineering managers need to work in close coordination with all members of the project. To better manage projects, engineering managers are expected to be familiar with the concepts of project risk management, because effective project risk management has a direct and positive effect on project management performance. Professionals in the field of engineering management can benefit greatly from the findings of this study by using it as a baseline for coordinating the relationships in multistakeholder organizational structures and analyzing stakeholder-associated risks throughout their projects.

D. Franks, D. V. Boger, C. Côte et al.

D. P. Tripathy, Charan Kumar Ala

Abstract To improve safety the application of effective risk management has become a requirement in the mining industry. The effectiveness of mining risk management essentially depends on the risk assessment process, as the output of the risk assessment process helps the mine management to decide upon the control measures to be employed to mitigate the risks identified in the mine. The application of risk assessment in mines has become important not only for ensuring a safe working environment but, also, it is now a legal requirement. The capability of a risk assessment process depends on the hazard identification phase, as unidentified hazards may lead to unknown and unmanageable risks. Therefore, it is essential to identify all the potential hazards to manage the risks in mines. The object of this study is to identify the safety hazards present in Indian underground coal mines and to build a preliminary database of the identified hazards. Accident data collected from the Directorate General of Mines Safety in India and a public sector coal mining company was studied to identify safety hazards that may probably lead to accidents. The database could help the mine management to improve decision making after analysing and evaluating the safety risks of identified hazards.

Steven N. Kaplan, Richard S. Ruback, L. Kaufman et al.

J. Gruber, David A. Wise

D.A. Abdullah, S.D. Ola-Fadunsin, K. Ruviniyia et al.

Enteric protozoa infection among cattle may pose a threat to productivity and survival leading to negative impacts on the livestock industry. A number of these pathogens are also known to be zoonotic and are of public health concern. Despite the importance of these enteric protozoa to both animal and human health, there remains a paucity of published information on the epidemiological risk factors that may be associated with bovine cryptosporidiosis in Southeast Asia. The present study was undertaken to determine the molecular prevalence and associated risk factors for Cryptosporidium infection among beef and dairy cattle in Peninsular Malaysia. Faecal samples were collected from 824 cattle in 39 farms (526 beef and 298 dairy) situated in 33 locations throughout the country, and subjected to PCR detection for Cryptosporidium using primers targeting the 18S SSUrRNA gene. Epidemiological variables including host, environment and management factors were subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses to determine the potential risk factors for infection. The prevalence of Cryptosporidium among the cattle was 12.5%, with significant difference in the infection rate among the various breeds. There was no significant effect of gender, and both the beef and dairy cattle were at similar odds for infection. The younger cattle had a significantly higher infection rate compared to the older animals. Multivariate analysis revealed that deworming practice, distance to human settlement, geographical location (zone) and farm management system were significant risk factors associated with Cryptosporidium infection. The cattle that were reared on farms located in the northeast of the country, closest (≤200 m) to human settlements, reared extensively, and dewormed every four months were at highest risk of infection. The present study constitutes the first attempt to analyze the multivariable epidemiological risk factors involved in bovine cryptosporidiosis in Malaysia and in Southeast Asia. It is envisaged that the data obtained will facilitate better control and prevention measures for Cryptosporidium infection among cattle in the region. Due to the potential zoonotic nature of the infection, serious steps should be instituted for animal treatment and biohazard waste management on local cattle farms. Keywords: Cryptosporidium, Cattle, Risk factors, Peninsular Malaysia

James Chakwizira

Transport systems, network densities, design capacities and constraints (including levels of service expressed in terms of quantity and quality) are central to disaster risk logistics, mitigation and adaptation. Using a desktop literature review method, this study analysed headline disaster risk issues in the transport sector of South Africa. The analysis indicated that implementation gaps exist in terms of the operating policy, institutional and legislative framework. The gaps were located at different spheres of government and expressed themselves at different scales. The end result of the disjuncture was a compromised disaster risk reduction service delivery environment. Although existing platforms constitute a good starting point for tackling disaster risk in the transport sector, the article argues that this is not enough. A transport and disaster risk reduction atlas and implementation roadmap are advanced as one way of contributing towards a better transport and risk reduction agenda in South Africa.

Bo Tang, Jinan Qiu, Jiaying Huang et al.

The evaluation of urban vulnerability is of great significance to improve the quality of urbanization. An urban vulnerability index system was developed from four aspects of population vulnerability, economic vulnerability, social vulnerability and ecological vulnerability. The Spatial and temporal patterns of urban Vulnerability in Guangzhou were evaluated by a comprehensive index model and GIS analysis from three time sections (2005、 2010、 2014). The results indicated that: (1) economic density, population density, and per capita GDP are the main factors affecting the vulnerability of Guangzhou. (2) The population vulnerability is considerably higher for the central group cities than for the peripheral group cities. The economic vulnerability reflects a crisscross pattern, consisting of a central group and a peripheral group. The social and ecological vulnerabilities are higher for the peripheral group than for the central group. (3) The comprehensive vulnerability has a layered structure, with a high vulnerability in the inner ring layer, low vulnerability in the middle layer, and medium vulnerability in the outer layer.

Syed Ahmad Hashmi, Shamila Nabi Khan

Interdependent relationships among various psychological factors are instrumental in shaping university students’ general behavior toward entrepreneurship. Our study explored these relationships and their contingent and moderating effects through various factors, such as need for achievement, selfcontrol, and relational support, and how they influence entrepreneurial behavior, given the presence of variables like entrepreneurial intention, creativity, entrepreneurial self-efficacy, educational support, and personal attitudes. Primary data were collected through a questionnaire circulated among 300 respondents from two top-tier universities in Pakistan, followed by tests of reliability and validity both in SPSS and AMOS. The relationship testing was done through structural equation modeling using AMOS interpreted in terms of Alpha (at three significance levels) and Beta values for more regressed relationship testing. Results showed: a) significant behavioral tendencies of university students towards entrepreneurial behavior; b) the mediating effect of need for achievement was not significant among entrepreneurial intention and behavior relationship (however, this effect was significant when tested directly among these two variables); c) the moderating effect of self-control on the underlining variables was significant as a whole except for educational support; and d) relational support proved to moderate the relationship between personal attitudes and entrepreneurial behavior.

Ali Asgar Pourezzat, Behnam Abdi

In the era of change, uncertainty and instability, continuous improvement of Iran’s defense power is necessary and needs continuous attempt for future architecture. Although this attempt is full of risks, but the acceptance of this risk is better than only seeing the future changes. ICT megatrends are a most important effective area on defense industry future. On the other hand, after announcing the macro policies of defensive and safety policies. Analyzing and formulating the future scenarios is attainable. This research is to identifying the ICT megatrends that are important for defense industry foresight to achieving Islamic-Persian model of development. This research uses a mixed method. Result showed that for defense industry foresight, ICT megatrends included information security management, social networks, communication infrastructures, innovation networks on IT context, artificial intelligence, internet of things and data centers and data bases should be considered.

Emmett J. Vaughan