Hasil untuk "Economic history and conditions"

Aurélien Gérard

Au lendemain du drame de Hillsborough, les pouvoirs publics britanniques et les autorités du football ont fait de la sécurité dans les stades leur priorité. Équiper les gradins de sièges est alors apparu comme la solution la plus efficace pour contenir les mouvements de foule tout en endiguant le phénomène de violence entre supporters. Le public des tribunes populaires s’est fermement opposé à ce projet de réaménagement des stades de football. D’une part, car cela venait profondément altérer leur manière de vivre une rencontre, et d’autre part, car la culture supportériste anglaise a vu le jour dans les tribunes debout et ne pouvait prendre forme que dans ces espaces. Cet article propose ainsi d’étudier la défense.

Gustavo L. Kohlrausch, Thiago Dias, Sebastian Gonçalves

Wealth transactions are central to economic activity, and their particularities shape macroeconomic outcomes. We propose an agent-based model to investigate how homophily influences economic inequality. The model simulates wealth exchanges in a dynamic network composed of two groups, $A$ and $B$, differentiated by a homophily parameter $δ$, which increases intragroup connections within $A$. Economic interactions alternate between conservative wealth exchanges and connection rewiring, both influenced by agents' wealth and $δ$. We examine economic and network dynamics under varying levels of social protection $f$, which favor poorer agents in transactions. At low $f$, results reveal high inequality and link concentration, with $δ$ impacting only transient dynamics. At high $f$, homophily becomes an economic advantage, as increasing $δ$ directs wealth flow to group $A$. However, since this flow benefits the wealthiest agents, it simultaneously exacerbates internal inequality within the group. These findings show that homophily is a significant driver of inequality, directing wealth towards the homophilous group and worsening internal disparities.

Cansu Isler

Accurate forecasting of downside risks to economic growth is critically important for policymakers and financial institutions, particularly in the wake of recent economic crises. This paper extends the Growth-at-Risk (GaR) approach by introducing a novel daily sentiment indicator derived from textual analysis of mandatory corporate disclosures (SEC 10-K and 10-Q reports) to forecast downside risks to economic growth. Using the Loughran--McDonald dictionary and a word-count methodology, I compute firm-level tone growth as the year-over-year difference between positive and negative sentiment expressed in corporate filings. These firm-specific sentiment metrics are aggregated into a weekly tone index, weighted by firms' market capitalizations to capture broader, economy-wide sentiment dynamics. Integrated into a mixed-data sampling (MIDAS) quantile regression framework, this sentiment-based indicator enhances the prediction of GDP growth downturns, outperforming traditional financial market indicators such as the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI). The findings underscore corporate textual data as a powerful and timely resource for macroeconomic risk assessment and informed policymaking.

Wadim Strielkowski, Oxana Mukhoryanova, Oxana Kuznetsova et al.

This paper analyzes sustainable regional economic development and land use employing a case study of Russia. The economics of land management in Russia which is shaped by both historical legacies and contemporary policies represents an interesting conundrum. Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, Russia embarked on a thorny and complex path towards the economic reforms and transformation characterized, among all, by the privatization and decentralization of land ownership. This transition was aimed at improving agricultural productivity and fostering sustainable regional economic development but also led to new challenges such as uneven distribution of land resources, unclear property rights, and underinvestment in rural infrastructure. However, managing all of that effectively poses significant challenges and opportunities. With the help of the comprehensive bibliographic network analysis, this study sheds some light on the current state of sustainable regional economic development and land use management in Russia. Its results and outcomes might be helpful for the researchers and stakeholders alike in devising effective strategies aimed at maximizing resources for sustainable land use, particularly within their respective regional economies.

Reetwika Basu, Eric Anderson, Chinmay Deval et al.

In an era where informed decision-making is paramount for sustainable development and effective resource management, the role of Earth observations (EO) in shaping economic landscapes cannot be overstated. EO, facilitated by satellites, sensors, and data analytics, is a cornerstone for evidence-based policymaking, risk mitigation, and resource allocation. SERVIR is a joint initiative of US Agency for International Development and NASA. This paper presents a comprehensive survey of relevant economic impact assessment (EIA) work, summarizes SERVIRs potential interests in EIA, and identifies how and where EIA could improve how SERVIR quantifies and communicates the impact of its services.

José Carlos Espinoza Briones

En 1989 aconteció por primera vez en la historia de México un proceso de alternancia política a nivel estatal, para dar finalización a una hegemonía partidista de sesenta años en dicho nivel. En esta investigación se analiza el efecto de la alternancia en el crecimiento económico estatal en México, mediante un análisis de regresión en el periodo 1989-2020. Se encontró que la alternancia política tiene un efecto negativo en el crecimiento económico estatal durante el primer año de gobierno, lo cual puede explicarse por la no continuidad en los planes políticos y económicos gubernamentales en el corto plazo.

José Manuel Menudo

Marouane Daoui

This article conducts a literature review on the topic of monetary policy in developing countries and focuses on the effectiveness of monetary policy in promoting economic growth and the relationship between monetary policy and economic growth. The literature review finds that the activities of central banks in developing countries are often overlooked by economic models, but recent studies have shown that there are many factors that can affect the effectiveness of monetary policy in these countries. These factors include the profitability of central banks and monetary unions, the independence of central banks in their operations, and lags, rigidities, and disequilibrium analysis. The literature review also finds that studies on the topic have produced mixed results, with some studies finding that monetary policy has a limited or non-existent impact on economic growth and others finding that it plays a crucial role. The article aims to provide a comprehensive understanding of the current state of research in this field and to identify areas for future study.

Monu Yadav, Laxminarayan Das

This paper explores the features of cyclonic disturbances (CDs) in the North Indian Ocean (NIO) by utilizing data from 1990 to 2022. It investigates the occurrence rate of these disturbances and their effects on human and economic losses throughout the mentioned period. The analysis demonstrates a rising trend in the occurrence of CDs in the NIO. While there has been a slight decline in CD-related fatalities since 2015, but there has been a considerable increase in economic losses. These findings can be attributed to enhanced government initiatives in disaster prevention and mitigation in recent years, as well as rapid economic growth in regions prone to CDs. The study sheds light on the significance of addressing the impact of CDs on both human lives and economic stability in the NIO region.

Andrea Carotti, Cosimo Sguanci, Anastasios Sidiropoulos

The Bitcoin Lightning Network (LN) is designed to improve the scalability of blockchain systems by using off-chain payment paths to settle transactions in a faster, cheaper, and more private manner. This work aims to empirically study LN's fee revenue for network participants. Under realistic assumptions on payment amounts, routing algorithms and traffic distribution, we analyze the economic returns of the network's largest routing nodes which currently hold the network together, and assess whether the centralizing tendency is incentive-compatible from an economic viewpoint. Moreover, since recent literature has proved that participation is economically irrational for the majority of large nodes, we evaluate the long-term impact on the network topology when participants start behaving rationally.

Paul Trust, Ahmed Zahran, Rosane Minghim

The need for timely data analysis for economic decisions has prompted most economists and policy makers to search for non-traditional supplementary sources of data. In that context, text data is being explored to enrich traditional data sources because it is easy to collect and highly abundant. Our work focuses on studying the potential of textual data, in particular news pieces, for measuring economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Economic policy uncertainty is defined as the public's inability to predict the outcomes of their decisions under new policies and future economic fundamentals. Quantifying EPU is of great importance to policy makers, economists, and investors since it influences their expectations about the future economic fundamentals with an impact on their policy, investment and saving decisions. Most of the previous work using news articles for measuring EPU are either manual or based on a simple keyword search. Our work proposes a machine learning based solution involving weak supervision to classify news articles with regards to economic policy uncertainty. Weak supervision is shown to be an efficient machine learning paradigm for applying machine learning models in low resource settings with no or scarce training sets, leveraging domain knowledge and heuristics. We further generated a weak supervision based EPU index that we used to conduct extensive econometric analysis along with the Irish macroeconomic indicators to validate whether our generated index foreshadows weaker macroeconomic performance

Bernd Hansjürgens

Ivan Kitov

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components, a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc with a constant numerator which varies for the largest developed economies. In 2006, a statistical analysis conducted for 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2003 showed a very weak linear trend in the annual GDPpc increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada showed a slightly steeper positive linear trend. The 2012 revision showed that the positive trends became much lower and some of them fell below zero due to the Great Recession. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with heavy and asymmetric tails. This research revises the previous estimates and extends the set of studied countries by economies in East Europe, Latin America, BRICS, Africa, and Asia including several positive outliers with extremely fast growth. The change in GDP definitions and measuring procedures with time and economic source is discussed in relation to the statistical significance of the trend estimates and data quality requirements for a consistent economic model. The relative performance of all counties since 1960 is compared according to the predicted total GDPpc growth as a function of the initial value. The performance in the 21st century is analyzed separately as revealing potential and actual shifts in the global economic powers.

Renata Pęciak

In 1978 in China, nearly 250 million citizens lived under the official poverty line, and the poverty rate was 30.7%, which by 2018 fell to 0.6%. The purpose of the paper is to review the history of China's poverty reduction strategy. The statistical data, covering the period from the beginning of the economic reforms to 2018/2019, show the process that took place in reducing poverty in China. Although the main goal of the reforms undertaken by Deng Xiaoping was to improve living conditions in China, no targeted policy was applied in the initial period. From the mid-1980s onwards the systematic and targeted actions but also successive modification and adjustment of the implemented programs allowed to continue the fight against poverty, especially in rural areas. Despite the obvious success, China still faces major challenges. It is necessary to lead a more precise orientation of poverty relief policies, but also through the coordination of the antipoverty strategy and confronting it with practices.(original abstract)

Denis Tan Jing Yu, Adrian Law Wing-Keung

This paper provides an economic perspective on the predictive maintenance of filtration units. The rise of predictive maintenance is possible due to the growing trend of industry 4.0 and the availability of inexpensive sensors. However, the adoption rate for predictive maintenance by companies remains low. The majority of companies are sticking to corrective and preventive maintenance. This is not due to a lack of information on the technical implementation of predictive maintenance, with an abundance of research papers on state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms that can be used effectively. The main issue is that most upper management has not yet been fully convinced of the idea of predictive maintenance. The economic value of the implementation has to be linked to the predictive maintenance program for better justification by the management. In this study, three machine learning models were trained to demonstrate the economic value of predictive maintenance. Data was collected from a testbed located at the Singapore University of Technology and Design. The testbed closely resembles a real-world water treatment plant. A cost-benefit analysis coupled with Monte Carlo simulation was proposed. It provided a structured approach to document potential costs and savings by implementing a predictive maintenance program. The simulation incorporated real-world risk into a financial model. Financial figures were adapted from CITIC Envirotech Ltd, a leading membrane-based integrated environmental solutions provider. Two scenarios were used to elaborate on the economic values of predictive maintenance. Overall, this study seeks to bridge the gap between technical and business domains of predictive maintenance.

Marco De Nadai, Yanyan Xu, Emmanuel Letouzé et al.

Nowadays, 23% of the world population lives in multi-million cities. In these metropolises, criminal activity is much higher and violent than in either small cities or rural areas. Thus, understanding what factors influence urban crime in big cities is a pressing need. Mainstream studies analyse crime records through historical panel data or analysis of historical patterns combined with ecological factor and exploratory mapping. More recently, machine learning methods have provided informed crime prediction over time. However, previous studies have focused on a single city at a time, considering only a limited number of factors (such as socio-economical characteristics) and often at large spatial units. Hence, our understanding of the factors influencing crime across cultures and cities is very limited. Here we propose a Bayesian model to explore how crime is related not only to socio-economic factors but also to the built environmental (e.g. land use) and mobility characteristics of neighbourhoods. To that end, we integrate multiple open data sources with mobile phone traces and compare how the different factors correlate with crime in diverse cities, namely Boston, Bogotá, Los Angeles and Chicago. We find that the combined use of socio-economic conditions, mobility information and physical characteristics of the neighbourhood effectively explain the emergence of crime, and improve the performance of the traditional approaches. However, we show that the socio-ecological factors of neighbourhoods relate to crime very differently from one city to another. Thus there is clearly no "one fits all" model.

Nadia Bouras

Sang-Hyeon Ahn

The number of astronomers for a country registered to the IAU is known to have a correlation with the GDP. However, the robustness of this relationship can be doubted, because the fraction of astronomers joining the IAU differs from country to country. Here we revisit this correlation by using the recent data updated as of 2017, and then we find a similar correlation by using the total enumeration of astronomers and astrophysicists with PhD degrees and working in each country, instead of adopting the number of IAU members. We confirm the existence of two subgroup in the correlation. One group consists of European advanced countries having long history of modern astronomy, while the other group consists of countries having experienced recent rapid economic development. In order to find causation in the correlation, we obtain the long-term variations of the number of astronomers, population, and the GDP for a number of countries to find that the number of astronomers per citizen for recently developing countries has increased more rapidly as GDP per capita increased, than that for fully developed countries. We collect a demographic data of the Korean astronomical community. From these findings we estimate the proper size of the Korean astronomical community by considering the society's economic power and population. The current number of PhD astronomers working in Korea is approximately 310, but it should be 550 that is large enough to be comparable and competitive to the sizes of Spainish, Canadian, and Japanese astronomical communities. We discuss on the way how to overcome the vulnerability of the Korean astronomical community, based on the statistics of national R&D expenditure structure comparing with that of other major advanced countries.

Facundo Lastra

El presente artículo tiene como objetivo realizar un análisis comparativo de la teoría marxista de la dependencia de Ruy Mauro Marini y el planteo de la unidad mundial de Juan Iñigo Carrera. Se sostiene que estas perspectivas comparten una perspectiva histórica similar, le otorgan importancia a la dimensión nacional, hacen hincapié en las transferencias de valor y comparten una caracterización parecida de la superexplotación de la fuerza de trabajo en América Latina. Sin embargo, las dos visiones presentan explicaciones divergentes en torno a los sentidos en que se dan las transferencias de valor y las consecuencias que la superexplotación tiene en las sociedades latinoamericanas. Luego de presentar algunos de los puntos en común y de divergencia entre estos enfoques, el texto revisa críticamente los señalamientos de Jaime Osorio al planteo de Iñigo Carrera.

Fuad Jabbarov

The article is devoted to forming of effective mechanisms that regulate economic activity of subjects. The economic state affects activity of companies, especially in tourism. The aim of this paper is to show that how implementation of corporate governance mechanisms provides greater transparency in the tourism sector, as well as a higher level of alignment of the domestic regulatory framework with the principles applied in the developed economies in this industry.  Different internal and external factors affecting the steady development and development of companies. Currency parity and increase of bank interest rates and their influence on a tourist stream. Forming of steady mechanisms by means of implementation of elements and principles of corporate management. Possibilities of adaptation and implementation of mechanisms of corporate management.