This paper introduces and formally verifies a novel geometric framework for first-order stochastic dominance (FSD) in $N$ dimensions using the Lean 4 theorem prover. Traditional analytical approaches to multi-dimensional stochastic dominance rely heavily on complex measure theory and multivariate calculus, creating significant barriers to formalization in proof assistants. Our geometric approach characterizes $N$-dimensional FSD through direct comparison of survival probabilities in upper-right orthants, bypassing the need for complex integration theory. We formalize key definitions and prove the equivalence between traditional FSD requirements and our geometric characterization. This approach achieves a more tractable and intuitive path to formal verification while maintaining mathematical rigor. We demonstrate how this framework directly enables formal analysis of multi-dimensional economic problems in portfolio selection, risk management, and welfare analysis. The work establishes a foundation for further development of verified decision-making tools in economics and finance, particularly for high-stakes domains requiring rigorous guarantees.
We introduce the Cut-Based Valuation (CBV), a unified framework for consolidated value in equity/flow networks. The central idea is that economic value is never absolute: it is always defined relative to an observer Omega, which fixes perimeter, measurement basis, units/FX/PPP, discounting, informational regime, and control rules. Given Omega, the Cut Theorem shows that the consolidated value of a perimeter P depends only on boundary quantities across the cut P -> O, while internal reconnections are valuation-invariant. This provides (i) sufficient statistics for valuation with linear computational complexity, (ii) standardized reporting through the Perimeter-of-Validity and Cut Summary, and (iii) transformation laws that clarify how different observers relate. Applications span IFRS consolidation, national accounts, fund-of-funds, pyramids, and clearing networks, all seen as special cases of a general principle of economic relativity. Case studies (market capitalization by country, keiretsu, fund-of-funds) illustrate how CBV eliminates double counting while ensuring comparability and auditability. To address practical concerns, we establish robustness bounds that quantify how errors in initial data propagate to consolidated values, and we introduce a dynamic CBV-Fisher protocol for intertemporal comparisons, ensuring consistency with official chain-linking practices. These additions clarify the time scale of application, the role of averaging procedures, and the horizon of reliable measurement. Finally, we make explicit the scope and limitations of CBV: it is a normative measurement/consolidation rule in linear accounting environments, while in macroeconomic closures or with nonlinear payoffs it must be coupled with equilibrium or clearing models.
Agricultural residues represent a vast, underutilized resource for renewable energy. This study combines empirical analysis from 179 countries with a case study of a pelletization facility to evaluate the global potential of agricultural pelletization for fossil fuel replacement. The findings estimate a technical availability of 1.44 billion tons of crop residues suitable for pellet production, translating to a 4.5% potential displacement of global fossil fuel energy use, equating to 22 million TJ and equivalent to 917 million tons of coal annually. The economically optimized scenario projects annual savings of $163 billion and a reduction of 1.35 billion tons of CO2 equivalent in emissions. Utilizing the custom-developed CLASP-P and RECOP models, the study further demonstrates that agricultural pellets can achieve competitive pricing against conventional fossil fuels in many markets. Despite logistical and policy challenges, agricultural pelletization emerges as a scalable, market-driven pathway to support global decarbonization goals while fostering rural economic development. These results reinforce the need for targeted investment, technological advancement, and supportive policy to unlock the full potential of agricultural pellets in the renewable energy mix.
Our study investigates the interplay between young women's empowerment and Pakistan's economic growth, focusing on how social media use enhances their businesses and drives economic advancement. We utilize a mixed-methods research design, integrating both online and offline random sampling, for our survey of 51 respondents. We also utilized existing datasets consisting of both social media usage (n = 1000) and entrepreneurship (n = 1092). Our analysis identifies distinct social media engagement patterns via unsupervised learning and applies supervised models for entrepreneurship prediction, with logistic regression outperforming all other algorithms in terms of predictive accuracy and stability. In social media use, the cluster analysis reveals that at K=2, users form tightly packed, well-separated engagement groups. The results indicate that 39.4 percent of respondents believe social media positively impacts the economy by enabling businesses to generate increased revenue. However, only 14 percent of respondents participate in entrepreneurship, highlighting a substantial gap between digital engagement and business adoption. The analysis indicates that daily social media consumption is widespread with YouTube (66.7 percent) and WhatsApp (62.7 percent) being the most frequently used platforms. Key barriers identified are online harassment, limited digital literacy, and cultural constraints in a patriarchal society such as Pakistan. Additionally, 52.9 percent of respondents are unaware of government initiatives supporting women entrepreneurs, indicating limited policy outreach.
This paper presents a novel Darwinian Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) methodology formacroeconomic forecasting that leverages evolutionary principles to achieve remarkablecomputational efficiency and emergent realism. Unlike conventional DSGE and ABM approachesthat rely on complex behavioral rules derived from large firm analysis, our framework employssimple "common sense" rules representative of small firms directly serving final consumers. Themethodology treats households as the primary drivers of economic dynamics, with firms adaptingthrough market-based natural selection within limited interaction neighborhoods. We demonstrate that this approach, when constrained by Input-Output table structures,generates realistic economic patterns including wealth distributions, firm size distributions, andsectoral employment patterns without extensive parameter calibration. Using FIGARO Input-Output tables for 46 countries and focusing on Austria as a case study, we show that the modelreproduces empirical regularities while maintaining computational efficiency on standard laptopsrather than requiring supercomputing clusters. Key findings include: (1) emergence of realistic firm and employment distributions fromminimal behavioral assumptions, (2) accurate reproduction of the initial Social Accounting Matrixvalues through evolutionary dynamics, (3) successful calibration using only 5-6 country-specificparameters to complement the FIGARO data, and (4) computational performance enabling fullsimulations on consumer hardware. These results suggest that evolutionary ABM approaches canprovide robust policy insights by capturing decentralized market adaptations while avoiding thecomputational complexity of traditional DSGE and comprehensive ABM models.
The transition to hydrogen powered transportation requires regionally tailored yet scalable infrastructure planning. This study presents the first Texas specific, multi-period mixed integer optimization model for hydrogen transportation from 2025 to 2050, addressing challenges in infrastructure phasing, asset coordination, and multimodal logistics. The framework introduces three innovations: (1) phased deployment with delayed investment constraints, (2) dynamic modeling of fleet aging and replacement, and (3) a clustering-based hub structure enabling adaptive two-stage hydrogen delivery. Simulations show pipeline deployment supports up to 94.8% of hydrogen flow by 2050 under high demand, reducing transport costs by 23% compared to vehicle-based systems. However, one-year construction delays reduce pipeline coverage by over 60%, shifting reliance to costlier road transport. While the study focuses on Texas, its modular design and adaptable inputs apply to other regions. It provides a tool for policy makers and stakeholders to manage hydrogen transitions under logistical and economic constraints.
В.А. Гвозданный, Н.В. Агафонова, Н.П. Молчанова
et al.
The Department of Management Theory and Technology has been recreated and is successfully functioning at the Faculty of Global Processes, solving current problems of modernization of higher professional education set by the Rector of Moscow State University, Academician V.A. Sadovnichy and the dean of the faculty, Professor I.V. Ilyin. The staff of the department carries out the functions of educational, educational-methodological, scientific-research, educational and social work in accordance with the Charter of Moscow State University and the regulations and documents in force at the university. The teaching staff of the department is actively working on updating and updating the working curricula and work programs of disciplines in the areas of training in bachelor’s and master’s degrees, and is training postgraduate students. Priority attention is paid to scientific activities on the issues of global economics and management, research on the processes of regionalization and digitalization of the global economic space. International cooperation with the People’s Republic of China is developing.
This paper proposes a ridgeless kernel method for solving infinite-horizon, deterministic, continuous-time models in economic dynamics, formulated as systems of differential-algebraic equations with asymptotic boundary conditions (e.g., transversality). Traditional shooting methods enforce the asymptotic boundary conditions by targeting a known steady state -- which is numerically unstable, hard to tune, and unable to address cases with steady-state multiplicity. Instead, our approach solves the underdetermined problem without imposing the asymptotic boundary condition, using regularization to select the unique solution fulfilling transversality among admissible trajectories. In particular, ridgeless kernel methods recover this path by selecting the minimum norm solution, coinciding with the non-explosive trajectory. We provide theoretical guarantees showing that kernel solutions satisfy asymptotic boundary conditions without imposing them directly, and we establish a consistency result ensuring convergence within the solution concept of differential-algebraic equations. Finally, we illustrate the method in canonical models and demonstrate its ability to handle problems with multiple steady states.
Markus Doepfert, Soner Candas, Hermann Kraus
et al.
The shift towards decentralized and renewable energy sources has introduced significant challenges to traditional power systems, necessitating innovative market designs. Local energy markets present a viable solution for integrating distributed energy resources such as photovoltaic systems, electric vehicles, and heat pumps within various grid topologies. This study investigates the techno-economic benefits of local energy markets compared to conventional market designs, focusing on their impact on average energy prices and operational peak power, using a self-developed agent-based energy system simulation tool. Through comprehensive simulations across the countryside, rural, suburban, and urban grid topologies with varying penetration levels of the distributed energy resources, totaling 400 simulation setups, we demonstrate that local energy markets can enhance economic efficiency and grid stability with 99 % of the scenarios boasting lower average energy prices and 80 % lower operational peak power levels. Our findings suggest that local energy markets can play a role in the future energy system, especially in areas with high shares of PV and HP, provided that additional infrastructure, management costs, and bureaucratic complexity are kept to a minimum.
The research and development (R&D) phase is essential for fostering innovation and aligns with long-term strategies in both public and private sectors. This study addresses two primary research questions: (1) assessing the relationship between R&D investments and GDP through regression analysis, and (2) estimating the economic value added (EVA) that Georgia must generate to progress from a BB to a BBB credit rating. Using World Bank data from 2014-2022, this analysis found that increasing R&D, with an emphasis on AI, by 30-35% has a measurable impact on GDP. Regression results reveal a coefficient of 7.02%, indicating a 10% increase in R&D leads to a 0.70% GDP rise, with an 81.1% determination coefficient and a strong 90.1% correlation. Georgia's EVA model was calculated to determine the additional value needed for a BBB rating, comparing indicators from Greece, Hungary, India, and Kazakhstan as benchmarks. Key economic indicators considered were nominal GDP, GDP per capita, real GDP growth, and fiscal indicators (government balance/GDP, debt/GDP). The EVA model projects that to achieve a BBB rating within nine years, Georgia requires $61.7 billion in investments. Utilizing EVA and comprehensive economic indicators will support informed decision-making and enhance the analysis of Georgia's economic trajectory.
In Kenya, interest payments on external debt have been increasing from 2010 to 2015, while GDP growth experienced a slight decline over the same period. Policymakers are concerned that the rapid increase in external debt in developing countries such as Kenya has the potential to erode the country's sovereign rating, particularly if it is not supported by proportionate growth in the size of the economy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of interest payments on external debt on economic growth in Kenya. The study utilized secondary data for 25 years, from 1991 to 2015, for GDP growth and interest payments on external debt. The results from the analysis of variance statistics indicate that the model was statistically significant. This implies that interest payments on external debt are good predictors of GDP growth. Regression coefficient results show that GDP growth and the logarithm of interest payments on external debt are negatively and significantly related. The study recommends that future government plans should ensure that external borrowings are taken at rates not higher than the interest rate payments.
Commencing with The Protestant Ethics and the Spirit of Capitalism (Weber [1904–1905] 1930), Max Weber’s seminal contributions marked the flourishing of the field connecting religion and economics, and an increasing focus on the connection between religious attitudes (as a proxy for culture) and disparities in economic development across space. A famous application of this Weberian religion and economics paradigm is his analysis of China (Weber [1951] 1986). This classical Weberian study suggests that Chinese culture is not conducive to capitalistic economic development. Subsequent work on culture and Chinese economic development (e.g., Harrison and Huntington 2000) partially agreed with this classical Weberian take. At the same time, China rapidly attained a position as an important player on the socio-economic map of the world economy (Rodrik 2010; Song, Storesletten, and Zilibotti 2011; Caldara and Iacoviello 2022). In the contemporary economics literature, the importance of religion (Iannaccone 1998; Barro and McCleary 2003; Bénabou, Ticchi, and Vindigni 2015; Iyer 2016) and the importance of culture (in a broader neo-Weberian sense as a trigger for local socio-economic development) have both been widely empirically documented, and culture is now recognized as a factor underpinning economic development in the Western economic context (Acemoglu, Johnson, and Robinson 2005; Guiso, Sapienza, and Zingales 2003 and 2006; Alesina et al. 2003; Alesina and Giuliano 2015; Hahn 2014; Bisin, Seror, and Verdier 2018). Much less attention has been paid in the literature to the role of culture in this neoWeberian sense, especially when it comes to modern economic developments in countries of the east and especially China. Culture and institutions are likely to be particularly important for China, given its rich and long cultural history and its contemporaneous cultural vitality (see Fan 1995; Xu 2011; Warnecke 2018). Unfortunately, no sufficient systematic analysis has been conducted to clarify the impacts of culture on the socio-economic development of China in the current period. This Special Issue focuses on the Neo-Weberian approaches to China and revives, broadens, and deepens the original Weberian perspective. It applies the approach to the analysis of culture and regional economics in China. Unlike the classical Weberian approach which focuses on religious attitudes as a source for economic disparities, this Special Issue
This paper addresses the optimal path selection problem for economic corridors, which is a significant issue in the field of geo-economics. The paper has utilized the spatiotemporal characteristics of geo-economics and identified the development needs in this field to propose an improved ant colony optimization (ACO) strategy. The proposed strategy focuses on enhancing the heuristic function, functional area setting, and pheromone updating strategy. The heuristic factors and transfer probabilities have been improved to couple the path nature, which were based on an analysis of the factors that influence geo-economics. This improvement enhances the applicability of the ACO to path selection problems in macrospace. Additionally, the paper has differentiated the priority of path nodes by setting functional areas, which adds directionality to path selection. The improved ACO has been applied to analyze the optimal path in macroscopic economic space. The experimental validation was conducted in the Indo-Pacific region and economic corridors in China within this region, and corresponding potential geo-economic hubs were analyzed. The experimental results were validated using the Mann−Whitney U test and an evaluation method based on path effectiveness. The feasibility and objectivity of the proposed method were verified. This research provides a valuable exploration of the problem of path selection in macrospace and time and provides decision aid for the construction and adjustment development of a country’s geo-economic relations in a given region. It is a technical reference for establishing sustainable development strategies and national and regional economic planning. Overall, this work contributes significantly to the field of geo-economics and demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed method through experimental validation.
Authors’ Guidelines Peer Reviewing Publishing ethics Subscription News and Announcements Manuscript requirements Contacts ISSN (Print) 1996-7845 ISSN (Online) 2542-2081 Contacts: Postal address: 20, Myasnitskaya str., Moscow, Russia 101000 National Research University Higher School of Economics International Organisations Research Journal (IORJ) editors office Actual address: office 110, 47/7, bld. 1 Bolshaya Ordynka, Moscow Tel.: +7 495 772-95-90 ext. 23147 E-mail: iorj@hse.ru Indexed in Search text Отправить the website and texts of articles by authors by title (or part of title) by keyword Timur Alyev 1, Elena Stoyanova2, Ekaterina Chimiris2 1 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285, Russia 2 VAVT, 6A Vorob'evskoe shosse, Moscow, 119285, Russia Integration Strategies of the Post-Soviet Countries – Analysis Using the Social Graph Approach 2023. Vol. 18. No. 1. P. 127–150 [issue contents] In connection with the current trends restructuring the global world order, the task of creating regional zones of trust, including in the format of integration trade associations between states, is coming to the fore. These trends play an important role in the foreign policy of states, including Russia. In this regard, this article analyzes the strategies of the states of the post-Soviet space in relation to regional economic integration. The article uses the method of constructing a social graph. Data on the concluded regional trade agreements between the states of the post-Soviet bloc with trading partners was analyzed. The model was also tested and compared against data on value chains and investment flows. Based on this analysis, a model for the distribution of countries' strategies for regional economic integration was created along two parameters: active/passive and centrifugal/centripetal. Four variants of strategies were identified: active centrifugal, active centripetal, passive centrifugal, and passive centripetal. The article presents the results of checking the obtained model and draws conclusions regarding the prospects for the development of regional economic integration in the post-Soviet space.
Digital economy is an important engine for building a modernized economic system. Through new generation information technology, it improves the operation efficiency of industrial chain and expands the innovation space of industrial chain, thus helping to upgrade the industrial structure. Based on the balanced panel data of 30 provincial administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2020, a two-way fixed effects regression model is constructed to empirically test and explore the impact of digital economy development on industrial structure upgrading. It is found that: Digital economy development can significantly promote industrial structure upgrading, and the conclusion still holds after a series of robustness tests. The promotion effect of digital economy development on industrial structure upgrading is regionally heterogeneous and social consumption level heterogeneous, which can significantly promote industrial structure upgrading in western and low social consumption level regions, but not in eastern, central and high social consumption level regions. Accordingly, policy suggestions are made in three aspects: vigorously developing digital economy, formulating regional differentiated digital economy development policies, and coordinating the relationship between consumption upgrading and supply side
David Audretsch, Paul P. Momtaz, Hanna Motuzenko
et al.
This synthetic control study quantifies the economic costs of the Russo-Ukrainian war in terms of foregone entrepreneurial activity in both countries since the invasion of Crimea in 2014. Relative to its synthetic counterfactual, Ukraine's number of self-employed dropped by 675,000, corresponding to a relative loss of 20%. The number of Ukrainian SMEs temporarily dropped by 71,000 (14%) and recovered within five years of the conflict. In contrast, Russia had lost more than 1.4 million SMEs (42%) five years into the conflict. The disappearance of Russian SMEs is driven by both fewer new businesses created and more existing business closures.
The paper considers the peculiarities and directions of economy diversification processes in the eastern part of Russia – the territory that stretches from the Urals to the Pacific Ocean. The processes of diversification are reviewed through the prism of not only the views and approaches developed within the framework of modern evolutionary economic geography but also institutional economics. It is shown that the state and dynamics of diversification processes in the Asian Russia are determined by the peculiarities of the transformation of the country’s economy as a whole during the transition from the system of centralized planning and management to a system based on market principles of interaction between economic agents. The role and importance of previously formed assets and implemented solutions – especially in the infrastructure sphere and previously created production structures – are extremely high. Without taking into account the peculiarities of space – the significant distances between different productions that are links in the value chain – the transformation of the economy leads to a narrowing of the spheres of economic activity and subsequent de-industrialization. According to the authors, the transition to the evolutionary process of economic diversification of the vast macroregion is impossible without a balanced public industrial policy and policy in the field of nature and subsoil use. The analysis of the processes of diversification / de-industrialization is supplemented and expanded within the framework of the cognitive analysis of possible directions and conditions affecting them. The authors offer a set of fundamental measures and steps, that allow, in their opinion, moving from ‘extra-regional’ causes of diversification to augmenting the role and importance of local and internal factors and conditions